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Scotty Pods

So Caucasian

Origin of the name: The 'Bright' One

Long story short. My "real" last name is Breytman but everyone seems to pronounce it as Brightman the first time around. So one of my math teachers in high school decided to give me the nickname The 'Bright' One as a play on my last name, assuming you butcher the pronunciation of my last name, and the fact that i'm super smart. Most people think it comes from the fact that i'm an arrogant prick. Although that may be factually correct, the origin of the name was derived from an old high school teacher.

Strikeout Problems

There have been many players past and present who have had a difficult time avoiding the strikeout. Bobby Bonds was the first great strikeout artists having seasons of 187 and 189 K's. Sammy Sosa had eclipsed 170 3 times in his career. The record has been broken several times in the past 5 years by Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard who has topped out at 199 twice(so close). Last year Justin Upton found that it is difficult to make contact with major league pitching at the age of 20. In a single month, he managed to strike out 40 times in only 88 at-bats. Personally, i thought it would be very hard to eclipse that K rate over that many at-bats. However, every year brings new players who get into a massive funk and accumulate strikeouts in bunches.

First, Braves rookie Jordan Schafer came close by fanning 37 times in his first 87 at-bats. However, he has slightly improved his contact rate. However, the king of the strikeout this year has been Chris David. After striking out 88 times in 295 at-bats in his partial season last year, he has already strikeout 71 times the first 158 at-bats for a sweat 44% K rate. I'm pretty sure that would be a record. Assuming that he reaches 600 at-bats which is a fair estimation, he would accumulate approximately 250 strikeouts. WOW! Zips projections are being very modest projecting Davis to finish with 195 K's on the season. My experience has shown that players tendto get worse instead of better when it comes to making contact and I'll predict that David does break the record of 199 assuming he reaches 550 at-bats. Adding his low walk rate of 6% makes Davis a scary player to have, not in a good way.

The 'Bright' One does it again

News came today that long long time Rockies manager Clint Hurdle was finally fired after 7 disappointing seasons. I was well ahead of this story, dedicating an entire post describing Hurdle's many failures as a manager. Denver is a pretty laid back town, such that Hurdle could have held his job for several more years if he did not suddenly turn his clubhouse into a dictatorship. Such drastic measures was the catalyst to his exile from the team. Some may commend him for trying something new in order to win, while others see his actions as unprofessional and indicating bad leadership skills. I favor the ladder.

There is a second problem with the firing. Jim Tracy was named as the interim manager for the remainder of the season. This may sound contradictory but Hurdle may actually be a better manager than Tracy. Tracy has already failed twice as a manager, once in Los Angelas and a second time in Pittsburgh. He is definitely not the solution. Why not offer the position to Don Mattingley or Terry Pendelton instead of some recycled old failed managers.

Does Charlie Manuel even watch baseball?

Everything that is wrong with Baseball is encapsulated within this yahoo blurb within Jimmy Rollins' Y! Profile:

SS Jimmy Rollins became only the second player in Phillies history to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases in a season in 2007. Since that season, he has hit only 14 homers in 186 games. "Power's still there," manager Charlie Manuel said. "I'm not saying he's going to hit 30 this year. But I'm saying he possibly could. If he did it once, why can't he do it again? He's 30 years old." Manuel said opposing pitchers have adjusted to Rollins by throwing high fastballs out of the strike zone and slow breaking balls. "They respect the fact that he has power more," Manuel said. "They work on him more. When Jimmy's patient, he'll get better balls to hit."

Let's actually look at the facts instead of make blind, ignorant assumptions.

In 2007, Jimmy Rollins hit 30 home runs, averaging 379 feet per jack. His HR/FB rate was a league-average 10.7% and he set a career high in long balls thanks to an 8% uptick in FB% compared to both his previous season and his career average. With a career ISO just over .160, he's not a slugger by any means. His power numbers are about .20 points short of Youkilis's average numbers, pre-2008. Thus, if we normalize Rollins' numbers to represent his career averages in power, he calculates to be more as a 15-20 home run guy. Not a 25-30 tater slugger. There is very little evidence to suggest that Rollins' 2006-2007 power surge was anything more than an outlier -- his K and BB rates remained constant, the power (380 foot home runs) was not impressive or improved (it actually decreased) and he saw career highs in change ups thrown to him. Rollins' 2008 production level was more along the lines of his true ability.

Now, Manuel claims that Rollins is seeing more offspeed breaking pitches since his 2007 "breakout" -- this couldn't be any more wrong. As his fangraphs page indicates, Jimmy Rollins is seeing less change ups, less cutters, less sliders and about an equal number of curveballs (although he is seeing 2% more curveballs this season compared to 2007) since his 30 jack season.

I don't know what game Charlie Manuel is watching, but it's clearly not baseball.

Also, as a side note, there is just so much not to like about Rollins at this point -- the three year slide in speed score (it sits at a career low 6.4), the increasing age and decreasing ISO, the lack of LDs and BBs, etc.

BJ Upton: broken or overrated?

If I told you that BJ Upton's 2009 peripherals were largely identical to his 2007 numbers, what would you think? In 2007, BJ Upton walked at a 12.1% clip and struck out 32.5% of the time (.42 BB/K). His speed score, according to the Bill James Handbook was 4.9 (speed score ranges from 0 to 10, with the super majority of players ranging from 3 to 7).

This year, in 2009, the elder Upton is drawing slighly more walks (12.4 BB%), striking out a little less (32.1 K%) and running faster (7.5 speed score). Yet, his wOBA is .110 points lower this season than it was in 2007. What gives?

In 2007, BJ Upton hit for a lot of power (.207 ISO) and drove the ball with authority (19.6 LD%). Since then, shoulder injuries have limited his effectiveness and power, as his ISO has fallen from .207 to .128 and now .091 in the past two seasons and his LD rate has decreased from 19.6 to 18.9 to an anemic 13.8% (13th worst amongst MLB starters). Luck also had much to do with BJ Upton's 2007 successes. In 2007, Upton sported an unsustainably high .399 BABIP (xBABIP was .328) and shot 19.8% of his flyballs for home runs (league average is 11%).

To be fair, a lot of Upton's home run success was made his own, as his home runs averaged 395 feet in distance. That's a lot of pop, but it still does not equivocate to 24 home runs with sub-40% flyball rate. BJ Upton, who supports a lifetime 1.50 GB/FB rate, hits the ball on the ground way too much to be a prodigious power hitter. BJ Upton is strong, to be sure -- just look at what his brother can do -- but he gets on top of the ball way too much to consistently drive pitches out of the yard.

Despite injury last season, Upton increased his moonshot average to 407 feet, but his increasing GB rate led to a correction in his home run numbers. His 8% HR/FB rate may have been a little low, but it certainly was more within the realm of reasonable expectations from a guy who hits half of his balls in play in the form of grounders.

Some people claim that BJ Upton has been getting unlucky this year. I tend to side with them, but I do not think that the elder Upton will improve much this season -- at least not if he is still being affected and limited by lingering shoulder issues (just look at Geovanny Soto). Right now, Upton has a ridiculously low 4.5 HR/FB%, but his two jacks have averaged an anemic 365 feet in length -- less than those of midget MVP Dustin Pedroia (370 foot average). His BABIP is .270, but his xBABIP is only .290, thanks to a sharp decrease in line drives this season. Really, the only thing that BJ Upton has improved upon is his plate discipline (marginally) and steals/speed (by a lot).

All of this says one thing to me: if I am a fantasy owner, I do not want BJ Upton on my team. If I, like The 'Bright' One, owned him, I would try shopping him to salvage whatever value I could get. I do not see Upton hitting even .260 going forward or eclipsing 10 HR this season (and if he does, it won't be by much). He'll get 40 SB this season, but probably kill your other categories (except runs) in the process.

Sell! Sell! Sell! (and no, not to me).

Home Schooling is a G-R-E-A-T idea

NOT!!!

Blogs are notorious for being very critical and often times cruel to people in the sports realm, however younger athletes are usually given a reprieve due to their amateur status and common sense for that matter. There is one exception though...Every year ESPN hosts the national spelling bee which features kids from 5-8th grades competing for the ultimate prize - best speller ever!

This is a perfect display of what happens when you decide to home school your children. Obviously most of these nerds are home schooled, how else could someone memorize 500000 words from 10 different languages not including geographic sites and prescription drugs? Yes, public education is embarrassingly bad in this country and everyone wants their children to reach their full potential, but denying your children human interaction, big macs, and athletics only leads to bad things. You know that when those kids reach their late teens, they will ethier(inside joke) end up snorting meth or on girls gone wild, most likely both.

In reality this competition is extremely difficult. I'm sure everyone outside of Ken Jennings thinks half these words dont even exist, but there was one situation this year that really got my blood boiling. Some kid got the word Kalium, which means potassium in latin, actually in russian as well. It looks like an easy word, especially for the late rounds, but i didnt really care that he spell it right. But the first letter should have been a given. If he has ever seen a periodic table, which he has cause they said he has competed in science tournaments, he should know the one letter abbreviation for potassium is K. Who doesnt know this? Business majors know this!!! Of course, he spelled the word with a C. Cause he's a moron, once again i dont care that he's 12. Inexcusable. I just have one question for you. Do the chickens have large talons?

The Best Offense Ever?

I mentioned this is my last podcast (sameless plug: which you can visit here or via iTunes- if you search "gameofinches" at the iTunes store, it's under podcasts) that I think the New England Patriot offense this upcoming year, barring good health, will be the best offense Tom Brady has ever player with and might be the best offense in the history of the NFL. While the passing offense won't be as good as it was in 2006 and Tom Brady may not eclipse 50 TDs, I think the overall offense, as whole, will be better than any team he's ever played on.

The new main reasons I say that is because this year the team added WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor. First Taylor.

Taylor is a borderline HOFer who is proven to be successful. He has a career 4.6 YPC (which is fantastic. Hell I thought he had a career 4.2 YPC which I thought was really good) and he doesn't fumble the ball or lose them (He's only lost three fumbles in a year which was in '03 and only has 20 career fumbles and 13 lost fumbles in 11 years and 2,428 attempts). His worst YPC was last year with 3.9 (which again extremeley impressive) and that I mainly contribute that to his below average (19th ranked) rushing offense line. Taylor is now moving to a team with an amazing rushing offense line. Last year New England's rushing O-line was ranked 2nd overall and ranked first in '07. They have also increased their run blocking between 2005-2007. Now while Taylor really only gets about 10-15 touches a game, I think him platooned with any of NE four RBs they used last year/ when Laurence Mauroney is healthy will make the NE running game the best running game Brady has ever had. I also think Taylor will do amazing things with his limited touches.

The second main addition is Joey Galloway. Galloway is also a borderline HOFer has has been proven successful in recent years. And while Galloway will not be the same reciever he was in Tampa Bay, he doesn't need to be. He'll be the third wide out in NE. Last year (with Matt Cassel throwing to them) Randy Moss was 13th in the AFC in YPG and was first in TDs. Wes Welker was third in the AFC in YPG. In 2007, when Brady played, Moss was first in DVOA and DYAR and Welker was 4th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA. In 2007, Galloway's last healthy season, he was 12th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. This will be an upgrade to Donte Stallworth (the Pats #3 reciever in '07) who, last year, was the bottom of the league in DYAR ansd DVOA. In '07, when he had Brady throwing to him, Stallworth was 29th in DYAR and 30th DVOA. This means, if Galloway can stay healthy (which I think he can because he won't be the go-to guy), Galloway will be an upgrade to Stallworth, especially with Tom Brady thowing to him.

The the key factor here is Bill Bellichick. The first game of the '07 season, Bill Bellichick was caught taping the Pats/Jets game. So on the heels of Spygate, Belichick decided to say "fuck you" to the league and decided to throw more and run up the scoreboard which led to Brady and Moss barely setting league records. Peyton Manning had a better TD/attempt in his record setting year (mainly because he sat a lot during the 4th quarter) and Jerry Rice had one less TD than Moss but did it in four less games.) So I know it's hard to think Brady and Moss and the others will put up 2007-like numbers, and in fact they probably won't, but when you include the huge upgrade in the running game and the slight upgrade in the passing game, on paper, this teams seems better than it was in 2007. But will they put up more TDs? I guess probably not because Belichick probably won't be as much of a dick as he was 2 years ago. But does this team have the potential to? Absolutely. So I know it's kind of hard to say this NE offense will be better than it was in 2007 because they score less TDs, but the team and individual talent seems better.

I am also not saying the Pats will go undefeated again. I think their defense has decreased the past few years due to age and free agency and I don't like their secondary. And even if this team does end up having a better overall offense, it's just so so so so hard to go 16-0 and obviously hard to go 19-0. But I do think the offense alone will be better.

Some concerns TBO mentioned: 1) the AFC East is much improved sicne '07 and 2) the Pats have had too much coaching turnover. My response to that is 1) I agree the division is harder but when you're that talented it doesn't matter. 2) That team is Bill Belichick's team. I don't care if Charlie Weis, Josh McDaniels, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini or whoever is on the sidelines, Bill Belichick is the master of that team and as long as he is there, the specific coordintors will make no difference.

So, Patriots, don't prove me wrong!

GOI is on iTunes!

UPDATE: I checked iTunes today and all of the podcasts are available for free. Enjoy!

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UPDATE: Right now, the only podcast available on iTunes is a demo I did just to made sure the website worked. I deleted that podcast from the site. Hopefully the podcasts on podbean will eventually get uploaded onto iTunes. But right now, for up to date podcasts visit the website.

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First, the Twitter account, then the podcasting, and now iTunes! We're moving up in the world! While, granted all these things are done by me and no one is reading our Twitter account and no one is listening to our podcasts, hopefully things will change. Our podcasts that we have up on gameofinches.podbean.com, are now available via iTunes.

If you go to the iTunes store and type in "gameofinches", you can subscribe FOR FREE for our podcasts. Now that we have potential listeners, I promise we'll actually have better podcasts. Maybe.

What is wrong with Geovany Soto?

I am not a proponent the old baseball cliche "hitting is contagious", however anyone who has seen the last roadtrip where the cubs scored 5 runs in 6 games, it's hard to overlook the team-wide hitting slump. The person i'm most disappointed with is Geovany Soto, because he has shown himself to be an all-star caliber player with excellent offensive skills for a catcher. However, he is currently sitting at the mendoza line with a single home run and single digit runs and RBIs. So what is wrong with Soto?

Some people want to blame the WBC. Firstly, Soto never had a full spring training, due to his obligation to the Puerto Rican national team, where he was benched most of the time for Ivan Rodriguez. Secondly, when he did arive to the Cubs, he had a severe shoulder injuriy that sidelined him for another 3 weeks. Whether the injury was due to the WBC is debateable, but surely is partly responsible to the slow start Soto has had behind the plate. Other people will blame his weight on teh struggles. Soto is a pretty heafty individual and this year appears to be even heavier. Finally, the only other explination is that Soto had a fluke year last year, and is actually an older prospect who is only average offensively.

However, looking at Soto's advanced statistics on fangraphs.com, I see no reason that Soto shouldn't rebound to his 2008 form and have another productive offensive season. Nearly all of Soto's stats are identicle to last year, except for the extremely low batting average and slugging percentage. One of the main reasons to explain this the great disparity between the BABIP from this year and last. Last year it was .338, much higher than major league average, but sustainable due to his 20% line drive percentage. This year the value has dropped to a meager .266 despite an equivalent 20% line drive percentage. Clearly Soto has been getting quite unlucky in terms of batting average, however it still does not explain the decreased slugging percentage which sits at .066, which is lower than David Eckstein for reference. The problem is the 3% HR/FB rate he has this year. Just like Edwin Jackson cannot sustain a 3% HR rate, neither can Soto, given that it is nearly 5 times lower this year than last. His spike in infield fly balls will eventually turn into deep fly balls, prefereably over the fence, and Soto will regain his status as a top 5 offensive catchers in baseball.

"And that is why I am better than everyone in the world. The motherfucking end"

Why Isn't Brian Anderson Playing CF!?

Today, the great offensive OF duo of Scotty Pods and Brian Anderson are playing today because the White Sox have absolutely no depth at OF. But Pods is playing center today, even though Brian Anderson (who's playing RF today) is playing as well. What!? Anderson is by far the better defender and the only reason he should ever be playing is because if his defense first! CF is a fairly hard defensive position and a position Anderson has always played! The only reason Pods ever played CF is because Anderson was on the DL! Pods have normally played LF so him playing RF should be a lot easier than playing CF!

Stupid fucking Ozzie.

The Most XX Pitches

Last night, The 'Bright' One poised the question about who throws the most "XX" (unidentified) pitches in baseball.



Apparently, no one can ID the pitches of Porcello, Pettite or Jurjjens

GOI Is Podcasting!

So, we're cool! We're dope wit da kids! We like that hippity hop music! These kids nowadays are doing everything with the cell phones and using doo dads and widgets to do everything. So we decided to get in on this trend. We started a blog, we created a Twitter account, and now we've created our own podcast.

You can check us out here and also via a link on the side of the blog. TBO, Cubsfan, and myself have officially created the first podcast tonight and soon more will come. I have also registered us with iTunes so hopefully soon you can download our podcasts as well.

Enjoy our infinite wisdom!

New Box Score Tonight Format May 22

I found the old Box Score Tonight segments to be too extensive, time consuming, and tedious to the point where the quality is really suffering. I was thinking of only covering things i find interesting/noteworthy instead of covering every freaking game. Let's see how it works.

• I seriously feel i was way ahead of the Clint Hurdle getting fired propoganda. With another loss to the impressive Rick Porcillo, Hurdle may be on his way out, with Dan O'dowd
• 7 more home runs at the new Yankee Stadium. Maybe they could simply start construction over? Arod has 6 homers and i predict will lead the AL despite missing 6 weeks
• Adam Eaton got released the day after I create the "Adam Eaton" line. Just my luck. Look out for Adam Jones. He reminds me of the terminator. That's his new nickname.
• When Sizemore isnt asked to sac bunt twice in one game, he manages to hit a homer and steal a base. Wow! 21st century baseball
• There was no fantasy goat for Tampa. Every starter had a hit, in the first 3 innings. Nolasco got sent down to the minors after back to back 8 ER games. And check this out, Dale Thayer got a save protecting a 14 run lead cause he pitched 3 innings. Fuck you MLB rule book
• Kawakami outduels Halladay only because Halladay cant pitch every inning of every game.
• Michael Cuddyer hits for the cycle, the second for the twins this year(Kubel). Justin Morneau is my early AL MVP candidate.
• Gavin Floyd 2-hits the Pirates. Mazel Tov
• Just as the Cubs have only scored 2 runs in 4 games, the Cardinals have only allowed 2 in 4 games. This time it's Todd Wellemeyer.
• My theory of low scoring games in night games in the weat coarst continues. 3 runs in Oakland, 4 in Wales Vagina, 4 in LA, and 3 in Seattle. How has no one cought up on this trend?

WOW, only took 20 minutes.

The All-Carlos All-Star Team

C-Carlos Ruiz
1B-Carlos Delgado
2B-Carlos Beltran (he did it Tuesday!)
SS-Carlos Rojas (minor leaguer...he's getting called up for this game because Guillen can't play SS anymore)
3B-Carlos Guillen
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Carlos Gomez
RF-Carlos Lee
DH-Carlos Pena

SP-Carlos Zambrano
SP-Carlos Silva
RP-Carlos Martinez
RP-Carlos Villanueva
CL-Carlos Marmol

PECOTA Projection: 87 wins (better than the Dodgers)

Why Looking At Traditional Stats Can Be a Good Thing

Obligatory pause for TBO and DME to get calm down from their frustration

What I'd like to talk about today is just how far this site looks at sabermetric statistics and peripherals and just how much we miss the big picture and the usefulness of traditional stats. Now I am of course guilty of this as well. I have looked at Fangraphs so much over the past few weeks I didn't know the actual MLB leaders right now. I could tell you who I think is GOING to do well, but not who is. I have been looking at Fangraphs so much that it was a HUGE shock to me just how well Joel Pinero is doing right now. I think that it can not last and he will soon blow up and suck, but let's not take for granted that him and others like him have still put up some decent numbers.

The ten main traditional stats are the ones used by major 5x5 fantasy leagues: W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K, BA, SB, HR, RBI, and R. Now individually, all these stats are pretty bad indicators of how good a player is. In 2005, Justin Morneu won the AL MVP solely on RBI's which was pretty lame, but that doesn't mean RBI and the other 9 traditional stats are completely useless either

RBI: We get so caught up in all these statistics that we forget the basic goal of the game of baseball- to face a pitcher in order for a player to round the bases or the prevent players from doing so. And at its core, if a player gets an RBI, he's helping his team win the fundamental game of baseball. Now we are know that great players can have mediocre RBI totals (Pujols) and that not the best can have phenomenal RBI totals (last year Josh Hamilton). But BA of RISP isn't necessarily a bad statistic. If guys are on base, you need to make contact in order to bring those runners home. BA RISP is very close to RBIs and we think that's a decent indicator right? OBP has a causal effect with scoring runs and a guy like Adam Dunn can still get a shit ton of RBIs despite his lack of contact because of his power. Also, I would be very happy with RBI being eliminated altogether. But I don't know, it and its essence can be useful.

BA: As mentioned earlier and something everyone who argues baseball needs to know the great importance of OBP, but BA CAN still be useful. Prime example- 2008 Nick Swisher (also Ryan Howard). Last year both has great walk rates and plate discipline. But both had pretty bad OBP that were frankly unacceptable and this was caused by their poor BA. Also, I don't care if a player hits .200 or .375, a .400 OBP is a .400 OBP no matter. So if you're a guy who can't really walk that well, it's OK to hit the ball a lot because that still helps your team. Obviously, a guy who walks in more prone to stabilizing a .400 OBP versus the .375 BA hitter, but if in 162 games you still maintain a high OBP despite low walks, more power to you.

SB: High SB can suck (Scotty Pods) but high stolen bases while rarely getting caught (Carl Crawford this year), EXTREMELY helpful to your team. Yes, SB alone needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but stealing a lot can be very beneficial to a ball club

HR: Probably the only great (or even pretty good) traditional stat. A HR is a HR, no mater what and a lot of them help your team

W: As Dan Haren has shown this year and as many pitchers have shown throughout the game of baseball, you can pitch just a fantastic game and get the L. But over time, if you generate a shit ton of W, you're pretty good. Just like QB rating in football, just because you're #1 in this category doesn't mean you're the greatest, but you sure belong in the discussion. Look at all the guys who have 300+ wins, all HOF worthy players right (I guess DME can find me one who isn't HOF worthy but that's besides the point). In one game you get the W- probably meaningless. Over the course of time you get W- pretty good

ERA: As The Hidden Game of Baseball overtly mentions, ERA can be so subjective with unearned runs and such. Hell, yesterday, Bartolo Colon only got ONE earned run even though he let in 8. And we look at FIP so much and that we almost discount ERA altogether. However, we almost forget just how useful ERA can be. If you consistently have a low ERA, you're probably a pretty good pitcher. I think minor changes should and have been made to ERA and what really constitutes an earned run and how much defense if blamed by the defense and not the pitcher and all that junk is what makes ERA so problematic, but can be extremely useless. I think we tend to overlook ERA a lot when he delve deeper into peripherals. I mean, why do we look at WHIP and FIP and such for the most part, to see if a pitchers ERA can stabilize, right?

K: Obviously if a player can generate a shit ton of SO, they are pretty good. But a player can be great without striking out a lot of guys (Buerhle) and a player can strike out a ton of guys and suck (Parra). This tends to tell me that K aren't THAT useful as people hype them up to be. In my heart of hearts I want all my players to strike out a ton of guys every outing and as DME has said: Ks have a causal relationship with run prevention. I think this stat is very similar to HRs in that it is widely used and many people use it as an indicator for greatness. In this stat though, I'm going to go the other way and say, as a whole, yes, it can and should be used as a measure, let's take K along with K/9, BB/9 and other stats as well.

SV: As Moneyball has shown us, saves really just inflate the value of a pitcher and I think with the signing of K-Rod and other closers this year, teams are finally realizing saves are overrated. The odds of losing a 3 run in an inning is extremely low and a lot of pitchers can get saves. But 1) I think SV can be like W, one is meaningless but a shit ton is awesome and 2) there are many save situations (like holding a one run lead) ARE extremely useful. While a lot of pitchers (especially those on the Halos staff) could have saved 60+ games like K-Rod did, we still should give the man some props for saving as many one run games as he did. Also, SV should be used like SB, look at a players net value, not outright value. Also, personally, I like saves despite common knowledge and logic.

Now let me get this clear (please read this carefully DME) 1) I am not arguing for traditional stats. I love sabermetric stats, but I think we completely absolutely overlook traditional stats and I think we need to at least keep an eye on them 2) Please look at my broad themes and not my specific examples. I don't need some long winded post about how good Manny Parra is or anything or the sort. If you do, you absolutely missed the point of what I'm trying to say. I think sometimes we look so deep into sabermetrics and Fangraphs and whatnot that we forget the broad landscape and all I'm trying to do is make you see that. And while I have sort of sent conflicting messages, all I'm saying is that sometimes it's OK to look on ESPN's MLB stats page and see how players are doing RIGHT NOW.

The difference between Justin Upton and Dustin Pedroia

Last season, Dustin Pedroia hit 17 home runs and won the AL MVP. Why was his win, even if deserved based on his all around contributions on the field, so unsatisfying? Well, as the chart below indicates, Pedroia did not hit a single 400+ foot home run last season. On the other hand, Justin Upton, who hit 15 home runs last year, only hit one homer that was under 400 feet long. Upton's got 9 this season and only one of them is again short of the 400 foot marker.

DUSTIN PEDROIA (2008)

JUSTIN UPTON (2008)


Oh yeah, and Pedroia can't hit the high inside fastball.

Sample Size! Sample Size! Sample Size!

When does the "Sample Size" argument become moot for various aspects of a player's hitting line? According to data summarized on Fangraphs.com (originally from this website),

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Cool stuff.

I'm Going To Break Jake Peavy's Legs

From a logical/rational standpoint, I can fully see why Jake Peavy would reject a trade going from San Diego in the most pitcher friendly park, to Chicago in a very home run friendly park. Plus, it's not like Peavy truly wanted to get traded anyway.

From MY point of view as a White Sox fan, FUCK YOU YOU STUPID MOTHERFUCKER. IF I EVER SEE YOU I'M GOING TO CROWBAR YOUR ASS! COME TO THE FUCKING WHITE SOX.

Kudos to Kenny Williams for going out and making this deal though- tough break

That is all

Image Roundup

On June 16, Royals fans will be given this cool-ass shirt:



Pete Rose also signed this baseball:

He deserves to be in the hall of fame for his humor (oh, and his amazing career stats)

Box Score Tonight: May 21

Doesn't the summer just bring a smile to your face =)

• A Blanton/Owings matchup screams offense and thats exactly what we had. J-Rol with a 4 hit game back in the leadoff spot. Utley and Ibanez continue to rake. Victoriano 'the flying hawaiin' has one of the worse UZRs in center field to find a flaw in the phils.
  
• Edwin Jackson is a converted position player, so it took him longer to learn how to pitch, and it appears he's figured it out. 3.24 FIP thanks to a walk rate half his career low. He threw 132 pitches tonight and was throwing 99 in the 8th. Granderson leads the tigers with 11 homers from the leadoff spot.
  
• Maybe the White Sox were just heart broken from being rejected by Jake Peavy, but they suffered the worst loss in franchise history losing by 19 to the Twins. Mauer hit grand slam and is hitting a homer every 9AB. The fantasy goat was Nick Punto despite 2 runs and an RBI.
• Grady Sizemore has gone from an MVP candidate to a number 2 hitter who sac bunts twice in the same game! I know they're facing Greinke, but as the Great Run Expectancy chart to the right states, it's never a good idea to give away outs. The Indians do take down the great Zack Greinke, while Victor Martinez leads all position players in VORP
• The A's took a 2 run lead into the 9th, manager chose to leave Andrew Bailey in the 9th for a second inning instead of the closer, oops! 3 run 9th wins it for the (Devil)Rays.
• Aaron Cook with a 20-4 groundball/flyball ratio in a complete game shutout. Todd Helton's grand slam provided the offense for the Rocks
• Joba can't stay healthy leaving in the 1st with a leg injury. Yanks had the pleasure of facing Adam Eaton who's era is sooo close to 9. I think a 9 era should have a special name like the mendoza line. Lets call it the "Adam Eaton" line.
• National bring up another youngster, Caig Stammen, who wasnt overly impressive in the minors nor was overly impressive in the majors. However, Z-pack and Dunn lead a 2 run comeback in the 8th and the game was closed by Joel Hanrahan. Is he finally the closer?
• The Red Sox keep rolling and are now just .5 games behind the Blue Jays. Jason Bay may end up being the far greater part of the Manny Ramirez deal. His .386 career wOBA is much lower than manny's .421, but Bay is entering the prime of his career. His defense is almost as horrible as Manny's with UZRs of -11, -18, -21 the past 3 years. Here is a really strange stat. Manny Ramirez has played 905 games in RF and 917 in LF. In right he has a UZR of 17.1, in left he has a UZR of -12. Explain that DME!
• Andrew Miller and Max Scherzer went back and forth with 9/10 K's respectively. Mark Reynolds hits the game winning 2 run homer and now has double digit homers and steals.
• Trevor Hoffman is off the charts. 11 for 11 in save opportunities and has yet to allow a run
• Cubs manage just 2 runs in a 3 game sweep to the Cardinals. Lou needs to take his old people medication and go off on this team. Baseball is not that hard. Wait until you get a pitch over the plate and put the barrel of the bat on the ball. The Cubs have been doing neither of those 2 things. God I wish I was the manager.
  
• More low scoring games on the west coast tonight. I really need to see stats that prove my theory that night games on the west coast are abnormally low scoring. Maybe it's the thick air off the pacific. Brian Wilson blows the win in the 9th and the Padres have won 6 staight. Break them up!!!
• Eric Bedard gives up 2 hits, both homers and takes the loss 3-0. Gary Matthews Jr. hits his first homer of the season. Well worth the 55 million for shizzle

Better have my donuts!

Clint Hurdle needs to get fired

This will probably shock you, but Clint Hurdle has been the manager of the Rockies since 2002. That is a long long time for a baseball manager. Outside of his one miracle season, where the Rockies got to the playoffs thanks to winning 21 of the last 22 games, and ended up losing in the world series, he has been an embarrassment of a coach. The highest win total he had outside the WS year was 76 games. That is 10 below .500. He has never won the NL West. Now he is literally becoming a dictator in the way he is managing his team.

Due to Garrett Atkins' struggles in the early part of the season, he was benched for 5 straight games as a form of punishment for sucking. This wasnt a David Ortiz situation where he got the weekend off to get his head straight, Clint Hurdle admitted that it was punishment. The he benched Troy Tulowitski for Wednesday's game because he swong at a first pitch and grounded into a double play in the 8th inning down by 5 runs. Seriously, he got benched for swinging at a first pitch. Soriano wouldnt make it 2 straight days in the lineup if that was a norm in baseball. This is how Clint Hurdle is going about teaching his team about plate discipline. He also accused of Tulo of not understanding game situation, even though there was no take sign for Tulo on the pitch. If he wanted him to take pitches, then why didnt he put up the take sign?

The Rockies have been perenially in the top 10 in the majors in OBP the entire decade. This year they have slid back to the 23rd spot, but that seems like a combination of the humidor and really bad players. Has anyone noticed how white the Rockies are? Seriously! Iannetta, Helton, Barmes, Atkins, Tulo, Spilborghs, Hawpe, Stewart, Smith, Murton. That's 10 of 13 position players who are white. Also, 9 of 13 pitchers are also white. Not to mention the Manager, General Manager, and Owner. The snow isn't the only thing that's white in Denver

Jake Peavy Finally Traded To Chicago?

7:30PM UPDATE: Peavy vetoed the trade.
________________

1:30PM UPDATE: ESPN.com talked to Peavy's agent, who indicates that Peavy is leaning against accepting the deal.

If I had to make a bet on it, I would guess that Jake would say he's not ready to take that step today," Axelrod said. "But he wouldn't necessarily preclude it at any time in the future.

"We aren't hiding anything from anybody. Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He has a comfort zone there, he's been successful, and he's won a Cy Young Award. I don't know that on May 21, that preference has eroded very much. From our point of view we may say, 'Let's give [the Padres] more time and see if a National League team might step up over the next six weeks.'"If I had to make a bet on it, I would guess that Jake would say he's not ready to take that step today," Axelrod said. "But he wouldn't necessarily preclude it at any time in the future.

"We aren't hiding anything from anybody. Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He has a comfort zone there, he's been successful, and he's won a Cy Young Award. I don't know that on May 21, that preference has eroded very much. From our point of view we may say, 'Let's give [the Padres] more time and see if a National League team might step up over the next six weeks.'

________________

10:50AM UPDATE: Peter Gammons says Beckham is not part of the Peavy deal.
________________

According to Jon Heymen of Sports Illustrated, Jake Peavy has finally been traded to Chicago...the south side of Chicago. The Chicago Tribune claims the White Sox and Padres agreed to a deal to ship the Padres ace to the South Siders sometime within the last 24 hours and are simply awaiting Peavy's OK on the deal. Peavy, however, does not plan on approving the deal within the next few days and Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald claims the Cubs remain Peavy's #1 destination choice.

Though the prospects in the trade remain unnamed, the Padres are in desperate need of a shortstop. Logic, therefore, would indicate that the Sox would be relinquishing top middle infield prospect Gordon Beckham, the 8th overall pick of the 2008 draft. Beckham, who the Sox shifted over to 2B in the minors to accommodate the now struggling Alexei Ramirez at SS, has posted wOBAs in the mid-.370s at both A and AA. Though minor league numbers rarely translate directly into big league success, Beckham's strong ISO (.180), quality walk rate (9.8 BB%) and above average defense in the middle of the field have tagged him as one of the game's most interesting prospects to watch.

Names directly speculated in the deal are top pitching prospect and #1 draft pick from 2007 Aaron Poreda (LHP, 100 MPH fastball), Clayton Richard (LHP) and possible major league bullpen names like Matt Thorton and Scott Linebrink.

Peavy, who is due $11 million in 2009, will also be owed a sum of $52 million from 2010-2012 and, given his no trade clause, will probably require his $22 million option for 2013 be picked up.

What do you think Chicago fans? Are Cubs fan jealous? Are Sox fans happy? Is it a good idea for the South Side to obliterate its already weak minor league system for one of the game's best pitchers?

Box Score Tonight: May 20

I feel motivated today. Let's knock out the box scores from tonight!

• Javier Vasquez stuck out 5 of the first 6 batters. DME made a stupid bet that he would get 13K in the game. He finished with only 6 and I get a free subway sandwich =) Braves get 9 runs in the 4th in a blowout of the Rockies.
  
• Verlander continues to dazzle with 8K in 6IP hitting 99 on the gun. Nelson Cruz only hit his 2nd homer in 26 games.
  
• The Yankees went back to back to back. Surprisingly all 3 homers went to right field. Nice job yankee stadium. Obstructed view seating and a little league fence in right. Well worth the 1.5 billion. Phil Hughes with his best start fanning 9 in 5IP.
• Joel Hanrahan strikes again! Gives up 3 hits and a walk off wild pitch to lose the game. Maybe we should just admit that this guy sucks at baseball.
• Scott Kazmir is completely broken! He cant even have a decent start against the no offense A's. I would rather have D-Train at this point. On the bright side, the Rays are 71 for 79 in stolen bases. That's a 90% success rate, Bill James would approve.
• Order is restored to the universe with big papi hitting his first home run. Another bet that DME lost. Jason Bay hit a sedan across the street from the green monster, and Jason Varitek hit 2 home runs. MLB is obviously fixing games in favor of the Sox, that is the only explination to their dominance. That or a smart front office. Here is the secret, get jewish people to run your team. Andrew Friedman is to thank for the Rays success, not Longoria.
• I dont know how Aaron Harang is making 14 million this year, but he's kinda earning it by shuting down the powerful phillies roster. He's also a monumentally horrible hitter with a career average of .081. If Raul Ibanez is so inspired to leave Seattle that he has 14 homers this year, imagine what Ichiro and King Felix would do if they ever left the M's
• Way-Rod outduels Gallardo thanks to a 2.33FIB. How is it so low, well he gave up his first home run in the last 90IP. Also Michael Bourn got a hit and Kaz Matsui got called out for batting out of order, so Bourn got to hit again and walked. How hard is it to write out a lineup card people!?
• Kerry Wood tried to blow another save by walking 3 in the 9th, but managed to protect a one run lead. Sidney Ponson is now 1-5. How does he have a job, but Jim Edmonds does not.
• White Sox show off their one good quality by hitting 2 home runs including Jermaine Dye's grand slam. Maybe his clutch factor can move from 2nd worst to 4th worst! On the bright side, it's may 20th and Konerko is hitting above the mendoza line. Liriano's 4.8 FIP should be worrisome to his fantasy owners.
• Chris Carpenter returned to the Cardinals after his 1oth DL stint. When healthy the guy is a beast posting FIPs of 3.85, 2.9, 3.44, 3.24 his 4 full years in St. Louis. Cubs are dreadful offensively, seems like Lou needs to blow a cylinder soon. Marmol has walked 17 in 19IP
  
• Petco park should be considered a national park given it's size. People can go hiking and biking there for days it's so freaking big. Just another 2-1 padres win. The real Eckstein is featuring a negative VORP. In facts, 14 out of 24 eligable position players on the Padres have negative VORPs lead by Brian Giles -11.8
• Mariners win a 1-0 game over the Angels thanks to that Jakubauskas guy. It appears that David Aardsma is the official closer for the M's. Aardsma actually comes first in the baseball dictionary just ahead of Henry Aaron.
• For some reason all the west coast games tonight had 3 runs or less. This is no coincidence I am sure. Anyone have a clue why that may be the case? Maybe they know no one is watching hence they can just slack off? Anyway, Dodgers outlast the Mets 2-1
• Dbacks and Marlins played in double header. First game went to the Fish behind a Dan Uggla 3 run homer. Mark Reynolds somehow managed 4 stolen bases and stole another base in game 2. He also hit 2 homers in game 2. The story was Justin Upton hitting 2 3-run homers in game 2, both to the upper deck measured at 420 and 458 feet. He seriously has 60 homer power and he's only 21!!!

Man that's exhausting

Dusty Baker doesn't just break pitchers

Joey Votto is still dizzy. After a bout with flu last week, Joey Votto -- who played every inning of every Reds' game prior to his illness -- is still not 100%. Perhaps its because Dusty Baker refuses to rest Joey Votto.

Other guys Dusty refused to rest: Edwin Encarnacion (DL), Aaron Harang (broken last season), Mark Prior (broken every season).

Reds players beware.

Da Bears O-Line

I was arguing with my roommate about how good Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roesthlisberger (which he is NOT) so I looked back to my old GOI post about Big Ben. While doing so, I was reading the comments. One of them by TBO said this: "[Bears GM] jerry angelo on the radio said that he thought the bears offensive line has been very solid throughout his entire tenure. i think he was high" That comment coupled with the Bears Expo got me thinking, how good will the Bears O-Line be in 2009/10?

The obvious key to any organization doing well is are its lines. Last year Minnesota had THE best defense line to help them go into the playoffs (While they're O-Line was dreadful, it didn't matter because they have one of the best RB that can perform despite a line). I talked about in a previous post that in fact, position players like a RB are not as important as an offensive line. This means that if the Bears do want to win, it is imperative to have a good offensive line. The Bears have a great RB and QB in Matt Forte and Jay Cutler respectively, but that won't matter if their O-line is terrible.

Football Outsiders actually looks and devises a way to measure offensive lines. While, yes, those stats are extremely dependent upon the position players themselves, I think they do a great job of making the line independent on the players. And when you think about it, that's fine, because the whole job of the line is to make sure the position players do well and gain yardage. When looking at the website, I found something that startled me, the Bears were 11th in pass blocking but only 24th in run blocking. The run blocking at first was a little shocking considering how well Matt Forte did last year. But then I thought about it and if you, like I did, actually watched Bears games, you would notice how little opportunities the Bears offensive line give Forte and you saw just how awesome Matt was despite what little was given to him. But the passing shocked me.

Kyle Orton was alright, but I didn't think he had that good of a line to work with. But it turns out the line did an above average job preventing sacks. In 2007, the line was pretty bad, but watching games you would know that Grossman mainly got sacked because he sucks at football and not because of the O-line. But in 2006, when Grossman overall had a decent year, the Bears pass blocking ranked 5th overall.

This year newly acquired Orlando Pace and 2008 first round draft pick Chris Williams will start. Despite many fans love with Pace, me and my cynicism disagree. Last year, the Bear left tackle, John St Clair, ranked 17 last year over Pace who ranked 23rd (FO looks at the direction a play went and how many yards the play went for. Because of substitutions, rests, and injures, it is practically impossible to determine which individual player gets credited with the ranking for for our purposes here it is safe to assume that the FO rankings are essentially attributed the full-time starter in these instances). John St. Clair played well for us considering and either Pace or Willaims (unless he ends up having a monster year) will actually be a downgrade at LT. But, in all fairness, the Bears are not only replacing the Left Tackle, they are also replacing the right one as well. If Williams and Pace both start and stay healthy then this Bears O-line will improve. However, if Pace starts and Williams sits on the bench, which is what is currently listed on the Bears website, then the Bears O-line actually takes a hit.

So what's the verdict on the upcoming O-Line? Well the run blocking concerns me. Hopefully, the addition of Pace and Williams does a better job of that, however, the chances seem slim. The fact that as a rookie, Forte touched the ball too much worries me as well (see: Cadallic Williams), but I think if either Kevin Jones or Adrian Peterson (preferably Jones) gets more carries to ease the burden, then the Bears running attack will be fine despite a sub-par line. I think Forte does have a lot of talent to be darn good without a line. So while the run blocking will probably not be that good, the Bears running attack I think will be fine. Another thing to ease Forte's burden will be the addition of Cutler. I think he will not be the same QB as he was in Denver because he has shittier receivers and a shittier line, but the Bears passing line isn't really that bad. I think a combination of the line improvements and the fact that Cutler is much better than Orton and Grossman, I think, at evading sacks, that the pass blocking will improve greatly this year.

Jerry Angelo might be an idiot for thinking the Bears have had a solid offensive line throughout his tenure- he obviously hasn't, but I was a proven a bit wrong too because I thought the Bears line was much worse than it actually was.

Tony Kornheiser to leave MNF

News came today that Tony the Tiger was leaving Monday Night Football following 3 mediocre years as the "comic relief" of the broadcast booth. Kornheiser claimed that the decision stemmed from his fear of flying and unwillingness to ride around the country in the bus. Most likely he was simply fired from the position by ESPN as we all see that Tony doesnt have the humor nor knowledge to have any usefulness in the MNF booth. I tried to think of my most memorable Tony moment in his 3 years, and the only thing that comes to mind is the racial slur he had poking fun at the fact hispanics work at dry cleaners. I always thought it was the asians who had a monopoly on dry cleaning, so even that was butchered.

Not even the memorable Bears games on MNF stood out to me. I recall Korny gushing over Hester's 2 return touchdowns agaist the Rams, but showing your man crush on a football player doesnt exactly put you in the broadcasting HOF. I think it's pretty clear that the Kornheiser expirement was a bad idea, just like Dennis Miller was a bad idea, just like Eric Dickerson was a bad idea. Did anyone know OJ Simpson spent several years doing color commentary for MNF? Naked Gun and MNF...if only he didnt butcher his wife.

Despite the utter failure in the booth, Kornheiser will continue doing PTI, which is a college students best friend, and all will be restored to the universe.

Former Raiders and Bucs head coach Jon Gruden will take Kornheiser's seat in the booth. I have never heard Gruden analyze football, but considering this guy worked 20 hour days as a coach, i'm guessing he knows something about the game and will bring great insight to the position. He young, semi-hip, and very energetic/intense which is what the position needs. And if not, at least he's a better option than Matt Millen

Post #501

We reached the 500 post mark yesterday. Thank you and congratulations to all of us who made this possible by not doing homework, watching excessive amounts of baseball and wasting countless hours on countless topics.

We rule.

I have just lost my MLB network virginity

Finally I have arrived home and can enjoy some digital cable action, most notably the bran new MLB network, which really should have been invented years ago. One of the first things i heard made me think the network has a similar sense of humor to the GOI writers. Prior to showing the highlights to the Cardinals game today, they played a 10 second audio clip of the announcers key to the game. Here is what the Cards announcer states as the key to the game.

The key to Todd Wellenmeyer is to have a low hit game. When he has a high hit game, he can't keep from giving up runs

I'm glad MLB network isnt afraid to point out the stupidity of baseball announcers, which are the worst in all of sports and will be further documented in a future post. I'm super excited to see how this new channel will enhance the baseball watching experience.

Little Papi

Players who have more home runs than David Ortiz this season:

• Alex Rodriguez, who missed five weeks of the season with a hip injury.
• Willie Bloomquist, whose only extra base hit last season was a double.
• A handful of NL pitchers, including Paul Maholm, who now has 1 career home run -- in fact, at a "robust" .611, Ortiz and Maholm have identical OPS's on the season.
• Matt LaPorta, who has spent all of about 15 minutes in the majors.
• Emilio Bonafacio, who han't even hit the ball to the warning track this season. Bonafacio has not heard of Carl Yastrzemski.

I was sort of hoping that Andy Sonnanstine would jack one today so I could say an AL pitcher had more home runs than Papi before the start of interleague play.

Andy Sonnanstine Bats- Third!

No, Sonnanstine didn't just get traded to an NL team nor are the Rays playing in an NL park. This is also not a mistake- well not one by me. Rays manager Joe Maddon made a mistake in his line up sheet he handed the umpires and accidentally put Ben Zorbist AND Evan Longoria in at 3B. Maddon meant to make Longoria, who was obviously supposed to bat third, the DH. But due to this mistake that Indians manager Eric Wedge pointed out (that DICK! haha) on Maddon's line up card, Maddon was forced to take Longoria out of the line up and make the pitcher hit. Also, Maddon couldn't take out Zorbist for Sonnanstine, he had to replace Longoria? I don't know.

Sonnanstine went 1-3 with an RBI and a K and also reached base after an intended sac hit got fucked up the the Indians defender. Sonnanstine also got the win for the Rays

You can read about this blunder here

Also, it's stories like this that we need to bring back Box Score Tonight!

My Day At The 2009 Bears Expo

Today, the Chicago Bears held their annual Fanfest at Soldier Field. I had never been to Soldier Field and I thought this would be a cool experience. I paid 35 bucks to go get some autographs, listen to some players/coaches/front office speak, and experience Soldier Field for all its grandeur. Boy was I wrong.

First, the autographs. In order to get Jay Cutler's, Brian Urlacher's, Matt Forte's, Orlando Pace's, Chris William's, or Greg Olson's autograph. You had to be one of the first 4,000 people in attendance at Soldier Field (SF from now on). If you were in the first 4,000 you received a scratch off card with ONE of those players names on it. You got to wait in line to get only that ONE player's autograph. Seeing as how I did not want to wake up at 6:00 to catch a 7:00 am train to make it to SF when the doors opened, I was not one of the first 4,000. Thus I had to settle to waiting half an hour (each) for the great talents such as Rasheed Davis, Anthony Adams, Mike Roach, Patrick Mannelly, Kevin Jones, Trumaine McBride and Brandon Rideau. As for all you avid Bears fans you thought those names were obscure, I won't bore you with the other 10 or so names of players you could have gotten autographs from.

I waited in line to get Anthony Adams autograph (it was either that or wait twice as long to get Rasheed Davis') and before I got to Adams' table there was another player signing. After I got both players' autographs I asked the Security Guard there to "protect" both players (for all those Anthony Adams fans out there literally dying to see him) who the other player was. He just shrugged his shoulders. If the people paid to protect you don't know who you are- your signature just devalued my football designed to get autographs that I got at Wal-Mart the day before.

Lance Briggs, Devin Hester, Peanut Tillman, Nathan Vasher, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Mark Anderson, Wale, Alex Brown, Roberto Garza, Olin Kruetz, Brad Maynard, and Robbie Gould all felt that a day dedicated to their fans was above them or realized it wasn't in their contract to do so and thus were unavailable to get autographs from in any way shape or form. The only players that you would have wanted to get autographs from/ players who have fans that actually buy their jerseys were also essentially off limits. I think the policy the Bears organization said to their players was: if you're borderline for making this team, you better show up to the Bears Expo to sign autographs to keep your roster spot- at least for another week.

Secondly, the interviews. I stayed and watched three interviews/ press conferences. One with coach Lovie Smith, GM Jerry Angelo, and CEO something or other. The second one was with the assistant coaches- offensive coordinator Ron Turner, newly acquired D-line coach Rod Marinelli, defensive coordinator Bob Babich, and special teams coach Not Important Enough Person to Care About. The third interviews was with Jay Cutler, Orlando Pace, Matt Forte, and Greg Olson. These were kind of cool and I got to stand about a foot away from all of these people which I have to admit was almost worth the price of admission. But the problem was that these people never give you straightforward answers. This was the same bullshit you hear at every single interview. The same bullshit that spews "Rex Grossman is our Quarterback" then "Brian Griese is our Quarterback" then "Kyle Orton is our Quarterback". Now I know they probably can't answer to the public to same as how they answer these questions in private, but I mean come on guys, a little SOMETHING would be nice.

I got to ask a question during the second interview with the coordinators- something I admit I enjoyed heavily. I going going to apologize to Maranelli for being the coach of a Matt Millen 0-16 team or yell at Ron Turner for being shitty and pray to him that he doesn't ruin Jay Cutler. But surprisingly, I had more class than that. I was going to ask "Last year we were pretty bad at sacking the quarterback even though we were first in blitzing. In fact, we let Brian Greise get 65+ attempts without a single sack. How do you go about fixing this?" But then some douche two spots ahead of me asked something similar and Babich and Marinelli spent five minutes preaching the "fundamentals" and "doing better" and more bullshit. So then I decided to ask Ron Turner about Brandon Lloyd and about Illinois and about giving Lloyd more playing time. But then I turned to the guy standing behind me and realized Lloyd got cut. So I eventually did ask them this question: "So many teams are using the 3-4 defensive schemes and in fact the Green Bay Packers recently switched. Do guys see yourself doing the same and why?" I got a vehement "NO". You know guys, your defense sucked balls last year and now essentially this same team is one year older and that much crappier. The D-Line can't rush the passer for shit, Brain Urlacher can't do shit now in the middle of the field, and that secondary is great and run prevention but shitty at pass prevention- you know the main job of a secondary. And you're going to look me in the eyes and adamantly reject a defense that essentially has been successful everywhere it's implemented? OK, Bob Babich, have fun looking for a new job next year...

While writing this I probably appear to you as just being vengeful at the way the coaches answered my question which I assure was not the case. However, I am upset that this staff can't take fault in the fact that they put a shitty product out on the field week in and week out in 2008. It was refreshing to hear Bob Babich say he took full responsibility for that Atlanta loss last year, but as a whole, really generic and inane answers from people who owe us better. And getting Jay Cutler- which was a unanimously great decisions by all fans and one in which I also now applaud despite public criticism- does not excuse you all for the bullshit you fed me for two and half hours.

Lastly, the days events. I got to kick a 10 yard field goal- or attempted to (fuck, that's harder than it looks, I swear), take a tour of the Bears actual locker room, and had the ability to buy Rex Grossman's old jock strap (I shit you not. There was this event sponsored by the Chicago Tribune where you could buy all old clothes and apparel and shit from former players. Some like 8 year old bought a giant box of old Under Armors. My buddy I went with bought a former facemask- not the helmet but that little guard part- for two bucks because the guy said it was formerly Matt Forte's. Sure it was only two bucks and still kinda of cool to have weather or not it really was Forte's- which it probably wasn't. Point is, crappy waste of my two minutes.) And I will admit, seeing as how I have never been to SF it was pretty sweet to stand on that grass or turf or whatever. But there were only three minor "events" for me to do. This was supposed to be a day dedicated to treating the fans and this is the shit I get to "enjoy".

So good job Chicago Bears. That CEO guy I mentioned earlier I think had a big part in planning this Expo and the dude's a really cool, down-to-earth guy. But his event sucked. Now maybe if I was with a family (which I know the like four + readers of this blog are not) or with a bigger group of friends it would have appeared better than it was, but overall, sort of a disappointment. However, if you go with a bigger group and extremely low expectations, you can have a great time for the 2010 Expo.

Tigers barren minor league system

Thanks to a handful of trades and poor draft picks over the past few seasons, the Tigers minor league system is barren. Take a look at the four trades that wiped them out:

• Jair Jurrjens (SP) for Edgar Renteria (SS) and Gorkys Hernandez (OF)
  
• Andrew Miller (SP), Cameron Maybin (CF), Burke Badenhop (P) plus a handful of unknowns for Dontrelle Willis (SP) and Miguel Cabrera (3B/1B)
• Rudy Darrow (SP) for Josh Anderson (CF)
• Matt Joyce (CF) for Edwin Jackson (SP)

Too lazy/hungry to do analysis. Just sayin'

I hate you Joakim Noah

PTI Fail

I was watching Pardon The Interruption (PTI) this afternoon and during "Oddsmakers" they asked Tony and Mike, "What are the odds that Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman extends his 30 game hitting streak an extra ten games?" Mike give him a 15% chance and Tony gave him a 10%

A hour or two earlier the Nationals game had ended and Zimemrman did not extend his hitting streak to 31 games. In fact on the scroll on the bottom of the screen has mentioned this fact a handful of times throughout the broadcast.

Good job fellas.

ESPNews fail

I have ESPNews as background noise while studying for my final tonight, and some reject who was exiled to the forgotten ESPN channel committed and inexcusable blunder. Updating the Mets/Braves game, he noted that Fernando Tatis hit a grand slam, stating that it was the second of his career. How did this reject get hired by ESPN? Everyone on god's green earth knows the story of Tatis hitting 2 grand slams in the same inning off the same pitcher back in his roided Cardinals days. Hence, this would minimally be his 3rd career grand slam. Consider yourself lucky that I don't know your name, whoever it is you are ESPNews guy!
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Update*
ESPNews just gave me the name of the reject. It's Ryan Burr. You're on my list!

The Hall Of Fame*

With the increasing disillusionment that is steroids upon the national pastime, many players who were once thought to be shoo ins for Cooperstown -- guys like ManRam, A-Rod and Clemens -- are speculated to be unvotable into the hall of fame. Seen as disrespectful cheaters, many sportswriters claim (with good reason) that PED users should be left in the footnotes of history.

I tend to disagree with this statement on the basis that as a guy who hits 700+ home runs -- steroids or not -- still hit 700 homers, which is not a remotely simplefeat by any means. The records of these cheaters, unless overturned by MLB, will remain in place in history and the only real punishment incurred by these players (well, accept Manny, who also got a 50-game suspension) will be a ban from recognition as truly great and impactful upon the game of baseball.Is this really fair, however? On one hand, yes, they took steroids and cheated and tarnished the reputation of the sport. On the other hand, according to most accounts, steroids have long been utilized in the game. Who is to say that guys before Canseco and McGwire who are already in the hall weren't users? Who is to also say that simply using PEDs makes you an underserving cheater (it's not like guys who take steroids just inject themselves and then spend the offseason eating potato chips on the couch; they still have to work out very intensely and the steroids aid these "cheating" athletes in reaching the next level of super saiyan). Many of these cheaters", like Barry Bonds pre-1997, were still great (40/40, anyone?) before they started taking PEDs. Hell, even beyond PEDs, guys like Pete Rose, who tarnished the game in their own unique ways, were still among the game's great players.

For these reasons and many more that I am too lazy to list, I assert that we should start a new Hall of Fame for everyone who was great at baseball, but tarnished the sport in someway or another. We can call it The Hall Of Fame* and put a giant asterik over the entrance doors to the museum (perhaps the asteriks can be the door handles!). Here, in The Hall Of Fame*, we can chronical the history of the various players and events (ie, the Black Sox) that tainted the history and reputation of the sport. Rather than pretend steroids and cheating never happened, we can acknowledge it's existence and impact upon the game as we know it. That way, rather than pretending PEDs, gambling, cheating, etc. never happened, we can learn from the past and examine how it affects our present and will affect our future.

Knowing Bud Selig, however, if there were to ever be a Hall Of Fame*, he would probably hide it in the basement of the real Hall Of Fame.

Pitching insight from the immortal Steve Phillips

Steve Phillips was announcing the Mets/Braves game on the slow Monday baseball day. I don't really know what Steve's position is. There is the play-by-play guy, which i believe was Dan Shulman. There is the color analyst, which was Oral Hershieser if i'm not mistaken. And then there was Steve Phillips sitting in the corner, awkwardly chiming in random words wisdom from his many successful years in the baseball profession. It feels like ESPN is just trying to use Phillips in any capacity possible until his contract runs out. I equate it to the expiring contract of Larry Hughes and his simply sitting on the bench. Maybe ESPN can trade Phillips' expiring contract for perhaps Rob Dibble's expiring contract on fox sports.

Anyhoo, Phillips shared his theory as to why Johan Santana has had such low run support from the Mets in his 2 years in the big apple. It all comes down to "rhythm". As the Mets GM, he had noticed that some pitchers had a certain rhythm on the mound that would influence the course of the entire baseball and game and every individual on the field. Apparently, Santana is so good because he lulls the opponents to sleep, however the effect is also compounded on his own teammates. Hence, Santana may pitch 8 innings one run ball, but if the team doesnt score behind him the start is considered a failure.

Once again Steve Phillips proves that his eyes see things that your tiny little brains cannot. It's kinda like a sixth sense. If only Johan Santana has Sidney Ponson's rhythm, all the worlds problems would be solved.

The most ironic book ever written

Roger Clemens makes no sense, squared

I would make this more extensive if i didnt have finals the next 2 days, but here it goes.

Most of you have probably already heard the Roger Clemens interview this morning on Mike and Mike. And most of you have realized the idiotic logic Clemens made up...eerrr...used to explain why he would never use any drugs, ever. He claimed the past heart history in his family would make it suicidal for him to take steroids or HGH. He cited his brothers heart attack and the fact that his step-dad died of a heart attack. Clearly he has zero genetic relationship with his step father, unless he performed genetic tests to determine that he and his step dad share a common gene associated with heart disease, but something tells me he did not due so, hence his claim makes no sense.

However, here is some idiocy you may not have considered. Clemens threw under the bus...eerrr...admitted that his wife had take HGH to get in shape for their magazine cover photo. I have yet to start med school, but i'm pretty sure she shared more genetic information with her dad, than Roger shares with her dad. So Roger would never take HGH because it would be quote "suicidal", but would gladly let his wife take the hormone, even though it is superiorly much more "suicidal" for her. It's a shame baseball players are such morons.

Greatest Sports Cities

I am extremely bored and love lists- so what better thing to do right than to create my own personal list of the greatest cities according to the professional sports teams. The major basis for my qualifications:

1) Mainly based off of the teams professional baseball, football, basketball, and hockey teams. Sometimes I will consider the college level as well- especially for basketball and football.
2) Did the teams win the championship? Make it to the playoffs?
3) For hockey and basketball- based off the current season happening now. For college basketball and football and professional football- based off of the last season played. For professional baseball, since the current season is so young, based off a combination of the 2008 season and the expectations and current standings of the 2009 season
4) Recent off season moves are taken into account.

10) Houston
Although the Texans still stink- they are doing very well for a franchise that's only about like 5 years old and didn't end up last in the division and wasn't under .500. The Astros also stink but still won 88 games last year. But the main reasons Houston has a a spot on this list is because the Rockets won a playoff round and are doing very well against the Lakers.

9) Detroit
Yes, the Lions were the only franchise to go 0-16- but that's an awesome feat people were rooting for and they also overhauled their system and got awesome draft picks like Georgia QB Matthew Stafford. Yes, the Pistons were swept in the playoffs and were the elite of the NBA for the past five years or so, but hey, at least they MADE the playoffs. Yes the Tigers ended up being last in the AL Central behind the fucking Royals, but they're in first right now and projected by BP to win the division. But the main reason Detroit is here because the Red Wings won the Stanley Cup last year and I see no reason why they can't do it again. Plus, the Final Four was played in Detroit and Michigan State went to that- that's close enough. Right?

8) Miami
The Dolphins went from winning one game in 2007 to 11 in 2008. They won their division and ended up forcing the perennial powerhouse Patriots (who DID win 11 games) out of the playoffs. The Heat had a great year this year winning the 5th seed in the East and G Dwayne Wade some MVP votes. The Marlins- while technically not Miami, but really close and soon WILL be the Miami Marlins- had a good year last year being in playoff contention for most of the year and this year got off to a great start with a damn fine rotation and some big name hitters. However, the Miami Hurricans have been terrible in the college ranks- in both sports.

7)Atlanta
The Falcons went to having one of the most fucked up sports franchises after their star QB- Michael Vick- tarnished the sports world by getting arrested on dog fighting charges and had their head coach left for the college ranks after 13 games to winning 11 games and making the playoffs. Matt Ryan doesn't hurt either. The Hawks may have just gotten destroyed by LeBron in four games but they did win the 4th seed in the NBA playoffs and did win a series. The Braves did end up 4th in their division last year behind the Marlins, Mets, and Phillies, but their team looks good this year with the addition of Javy Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and a damn fine defense. Although the NHL franchise sucked this year- but whatevs.

6) North Carolina
Yes, obviously North Carolina is NOT a city but a state, but seriously, look at all the teams that play in NC- they have Carolina as their city so I'm saying North Carolina as my choice for #6 (and yes I do realize Carolina is for both North AND South Carolina. you know what whatever, just let me speak). The North Carolina Tar Heels won the NCAA bracket this year and helped myself and Obama win their respective brackets as well. The Carolina Panthers ended up being the #2 overall seed in the NFC- although the did lose to the Cardinals in the first round. And the Carolina Hurricanes did end up going to the playoffs, won a playoff round, and are looking extremely well against the #1 seeded Bruins.

5) Chicago
The White Sox, Cubs, Bulls, and Blackhawks all made the playoffs last/this year. The only team that didn't was the Bears. But they were one game away from doing so and just added fucking Jay Cutler. The White Sox and Cubs did both get bounced in the first round last year- but hey, winning the division is still winning the division. And the Cubs will probably do so again this year despite the freak out of their fans right now. The Bulls got the first pick in last years draft- Derek Rose- and played one of the greatest post season series in recent memory- although yes they did lose in Game 7. But the most impressive sports franchise in Chi-Town has been the Blackhawks. They are officially in the Westen Conference Finals(anyone else think it's kind of funny that a Chicago team is in the WESTERN conference?)

4) Los Angeles
The Dodgers, Angels, and Lakers all made the playoffs. While the Clippers and their NHL franchise, the Kings, sucked hardcore, the reason I put LA (begrudgingly) ahead of Chicago was because the teams, for the most part were better than the Chicago teams. The Lakers were one game away from having the best record in the NBA this year and went to the Championship series the year before. The Dodgers beat the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs and the Angels were the only team last year to win 100+ games(wait a second for DME and TBO to scream "LUCK" loudly into computer screen). While for some odd season LA doesn't have a football franchise, they still do have the powerhouse of USC to root for.

3. Pittsburgh
The one thing that hurts this city are the Pirates. If they didn't suck SOOOO bad then I would move Pittsburgh to #2. Pitt had a #1 seed and played extremely well in March. The Penguins right now won a playoffs series and just tied Washington to make it 3-3. They also went to the Stanley Cup the year before. Oh yeah- those pesky Steelers won ANOTHER freaken Superbowl.

2) Philadelphia
The MLB WS champs were the Phillies who ended up having the 5th best overall record last year and still look pretty good this year. The 76ers won the 6th overall seed during the very end of the season- beating out Chicago who could have easily gotten it. The Flyers had a damn good year as well finishing 5th overall in the Eastern Conference of the NHL. The Eagles also did extremely well in the playoffs winning two games to make it to the NFC Championship (if only they won it like Football Outsider and myself had predicted they would!) "Experts" also said they had one of the best drafts this year

1) Boston
If Bill Simmons miraculously read this blog- not only would that be AWESOME- but he'd be pretty happy right now. The Bruins ended up being the #1 overall seed and are not out yet. Boston University won the NCAA hockey tournament (although no one really cares about that...). The Boston Red Sox forced the Rays into a Game 7 in the ALCS and will probably win the division this year. The Boston Celtics won it all last year and will probably face LeBron in the Conference Finals. The only Boston team to not make the playoffs were the Patriots- even though the ONLY won 11 games. Boston is the cream of the crop and have been for the past year or two.

Cities I didn't put on:

New York- The Knicks, Yankees, Mets, Jets, and Islanders didn't make it to the playoffs. The Rangers and Giants both did but got bounced in the first round. I also still say that neither the Mets nor the Yankees go this year. Very close call and one can probably make a great case for them to beat out Houston or Detroit but my bias and the fact that they have so many teams that had potential and missed out/the Knicks were really really bad makes me put them at "#11"

Cleveland- Probably will win it all this year or at minimum beat out Boston/Orlando to make it in the NBA. But the fact that the Browns and Indians are the bottom of the barrel forced Cleveland out

St Louis- Blues made it to the playoffs and the Cardinals are doing awesome right now but the fact that these are their only two major teams makes me question them. Also similar to Tampa Bay that only has the Rays, Bucs (who missed the playoffs), and Lightning (who sucked this year)

Dallas- The Mavs won a playoffs round and were the lower seed but that's it for the city. The Cowboys had, on paper, one of the best teams and missed the playoffs. The Stars (NHL) also did terrible.

Minnesota- (don't make me use my North Carolina logic again). The Vikings won their division and the Twins essentially got unlucky that the Sox beat them in the 163rd game. But the fact remains that they didn't make the playoffs. Plus the Wild (NHL)and the Timberwolves (NBA) sucked hard core.

Bobby Jenks Is Playing "Ozzieball"

I'm being extremely facetious when I say any player is playing Ozzieball because Ozzieball frankly does not exist. However, there is one aspect of this perceived notion of Ozzieball that has come into fruition lately- pitching taking retribution for their batters getting hit. This actually was a bit more prominent in how Ozzie used to play baseball but not so much now. I unfortunately don't remember the exact specifics but in 2006 Ozzie ordered a young bullpen player to hit the batter he was facing. At first the pitcher threw it behind the batter. The ump let that one go because he even knew Ozzie had good reason to, at minimum, "scare" the batter. But then the pitcher threw it behind the batter again. This forced the ump to warn both benches. After that, the Sox bullpen guy pitched 'normally'. However, Ozzie actually did want the kid to hit the batter and a little bit rightfully so, his pitcher refused. I believe that kid never spent an entire day in the major leagues again- at least not with the ChiSox.

But this even has come into fruition again when this past Sunday, closer Bobby Jenks threw behind Texas Ranger 2B Ian Kinsler. That series, Texas pitchers hit 6 White Sox batters in three games. One hit batter is an accident. Two hit batters is a freak coincidence, but when six batters were hit, you can't necessarily take that lying down. So in the final inning of the final game with two outs left and nobody on base, Jenks threw behind Kinsler. After the game Bobby said he was "trying to send a message" but he just lost control. Nobody throws behind a batter on purpose. Even Sidney Ponson has enough control to throw it where a batter can hit it (and the batter usually DOES hit it...).

But I think Bobby Jenks had every right to do what he did. I'm sure Ozzie ordered his closer to actually hit Kinsler, but no matter what, Bobby needed to take retribution. In every sport, if your team "gets attacked" in a similar fashion to this one, you attack back. This past NFL season, when the Pittsburgh Steelers played their division and hated rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, Steelers wide receiver laid out a huge hit that injured a Baltimore LB during their first meeting. Of course, Ravens players made all sorts of comments saying how they were going to put a target on Ward's back and make sure he would be "punished". What did all the pundits say about this? While they all agreed maybe the Ravens players should have kept that information out of the public, they agreed with Baltimore. If Baltimore felt like they were "attacked" by Ward, then on the playing field, make sure they get retribution. During these current NBA playoffs, Orlando Magic G Rafer Alston slapped Celtic Eddie House because he felt House used unfair physical contact. When Houston's and NBA's resident crazy person Ron Artest felt Lakers Kobe Bryant used unnecessary physical contact when both were trying to get a rebound (although everything Kobe really did do was perfectly fair and legal), Artest ran over to Kobe and got in his face. And do I really need a hockey example?

My point is, is that in the other three major sports, retaliation is just a part of the game. You obviously shouldn't make it public and Bobby probably should not have overtly said he was trying "to send Kinsler a message", but Bobby needed to do something. Ozzie has obviously been an outspoken supporter of retaliation and his pitchers hitting his batters. I think he's absolutely right. Ozzie has gotten better at this and does not purposefully hit people since really 2006. In this instance, when you're up by 1 and there's two outs, the odds of you winning that game are high. Although yes if Jenks had actually hit Kinsler, it would have potentially allowed Texas the possibility to come back into the game, but in reality the Sox still would have won. This makes it an ideal place to try and send your message.

And don't get me wrong, I think this should hold true for all MLB clubs and all professional sports. I don't agree with it just because it's the White Sox, I agree with it because it's a truism for professional sports.

Jenks did end up with a measly $750 fine and this is appropriate, I guess. I think what he did was fine and necessary and I think he should have hit Kinsler (although obviously not injured him- I need him on my fantasy team!). But at the end of the day, people need to stop putting their panties in a bundle every time retaliation occurs- in any sport.

Joe Morgan v. Moneyball

Must read Joe Morgan article.

More fun Phelps facts

Story from deadspin.com

Put it on the board!

The 'Bright' One and I have started a side blog to catalog our frequent and numerous baseball/sports (notice how I clump all other sports under "sports") bets.

You can follow/find it here.

MLB.com fact checking optional

Try to guess who will lead the majors in strikeout in May. If you pick Nick Adenhart, you will most likely be wrong

Um Minnesota, Just Delete Boston's Number...

Just like owners in Fantasyland2 should stop trading with David "MVP" Eckstein (although I'm guilty because I just traded with him yesterday...), Minnesota should stop giving up their players to Boston. Over the history of sports many players either born in Minnesota or played on a Minnesota team have gone over to a Boston team and have been superstars. Here's some examples:

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves trade Kevin Garnett to Boston Celtics
In the off season before the 2008 NBA season, former great (and someone I'll mention a little later) Boston Celtic and then Timberwolves GM Kevin McHale traded away his star Kevin Garnett for essentially nothing. Garnett then helped the Celtics win the NBA title and helped the C's become the elite of the NBA while the Timberwolves are still hoping they're lottery picks will pay off

MLB: Boston Red Sox pick up Minnesota Twins' David Ortiz
Big Papi was the Twins DH and played for them between 1997-2002. Ortiz showed flashes off being good, but in in six season, he was either injured or sucked. But then Boston picked him up in 2003. Since then (with the exception of this year), Ortiz has been a powerhouse and a huge offensive force. Since playing in Boston, he's had a borderline Hall of Fame career, been known as Mr. Clutch (obviously not necessarily true), and has helped the Red Sox win two World Series

NFL: Former Minnesota Vikings Randy Moss plays for the New England Patriots
Yes, Moss actually went to the Oakland Raiders and just ran in circles for three years before getting traded to New England during the 2007 NFL Draft. But Moss was a great wide receiver for both the Vikings and Patriots- and not so much the Raiders. Randy Moss had been an offensive juggernaut for New England helping them go 16-0 (before losing in the Superbowl), help Matt Cassel become good, and has the most TDs for a WR in the past two years with 34- helped by his record setting 23 in 2007.

NFL: New England Patriots draft Minnesota's Laurence Maroney
While obviously in this instance Minnesota did not have a choice in the matter, this is just another example of a player from Minnesota thriving under the Boston headlights. And yes, I will give you the RB has had some injury problems of late, but he still is a damn good player that, if healthy, will be great in New England

MLB: Minnesota Twins trade Doug Mientkiewicz to Boston Red Sox
While Mientjkhdfweqgfhadbcwisz has not necessarily been the best player ever, he still was a great defensive 1B for Boston that helped them win the Wold Series in 2004. Boston wanted to be extra careful this time around that another easy ground ball wasn't misplayed.

NBA: Boston Celtics draft Minnesota's Kevin McHale
McHale, born and raised and played school in Minnesota, was drafted by the Boston Celtics 3rd overall in 1980. He helped the Celtics win three championships and was considered part of the original "Big Three" with Larry Bird and Robert Parish. Again, just like Maroney, Minnesota didn't really have any say in the matter, but just another case of Boston getting the best of what Minnesota has to offer

And speaking of Kevin McHale, he's a great example of the drek that Boston has given back to Minnesota. As mentioned earlier, McHale was the crappy GM in Minnesota and is now the crappy coach. Some other "great" examples: Red Sox Lew Ford, Celtics Mark Blount and Ricky David and Patriots and Boston native Jermaine Wiggins all went to play for Minnesota teams and sucked. Although, in all fairness, the Wild did screw over the Boston Bruins by giving them Brian Rolston. OHHHH!

So Minnesota, the next time Boston comes knocking at your door, don't be fooled by their quick talking and charming good looks and smile. Just slam the door in their face and shout "NO MORE!"

Chad Fox just broke, again

Chad Fox has had a long long long history of arm trouble. In fact, he usually only last several week into the season before having his arm break right there on the mound. Well today is that day. On a simple pitch in the 8th inning, he threw a ball 5 feet over the batters head, jumped off the mound in pain and proceeded to leave the field with the aid of the team physician. He's actually a very sad story. He has undergone 2 Tommy John surgeries among other arm related injuries. He's only accumulated over 50IP in 2 of his 10 professional seasons. I have a sneaky suspicion he will not attempt another. Too bad he went out with a 135.01 era for the season

Neil Cotts, get off my team

Neil Cotts, the Cubs' LOOGY, is the worst pitcher I have ever had the displeasure to watch pitch. He's a lefty who can't get lefties out! So far this season, Cotts has faced 35 batters, but only retired 20 of them! In 6.2 IP, Cotts has walked 9 and given up 3 longballs (2.55 WHIP).

This is completely unacceptable. I don't give a shit what hand he writes his checks with. If we cut Viscaino, why won't we cut Cotts?

Futhermore, why couldn't the Cubs sign discounted lefties Joe Biemel, Jeremy Affeldt or Will Ohman during the offseason? Biemel and Ohman signed for peanuts. Also, fuck Jim Hendry for trading Michael Wuertz. I am so incredibly mad at this team right now...AHHHHH!

Baseball Trigonometry

Amidst all the baseball stats that we here at GOI throw out ad nauseum, it is easy to forget just how geometric the game of baseball really is. A round ball being hit by a round bat. 90 feet between each base. 60' 6'' from the mound to the plate with a 10'' elevation. The list goes on and on. But as Hawk Harrelson has been known to do, he has invented a new trigonometric property that has gone overlooked for nearly 130 years. After a close play at the plate that resulted in the force out of Chris Getz, Hawk and Stoney reviewed the play several times on replay to see if indeed the runner was out on the bang bang play. Stone commented that from his vantage point, Getz was barely out on the play. Hawk put in his two cents by stating that he has a different angle to the plate than his broadcast partner and thought the throw just beat the runner.

Although Hawk's claim that he has a different view of the plate is valid, it may not have any relevance when it comes to deciphering a play at the plate. Hence, I decided to do a little trigonometry and see what Hawk actually meant by "a different angle".

I'm going to make several assumptions, seeing as how I dont have access to the blueprints of Miller Park. I'll make a rough estimate that the announcing box is about 200 feet away from home plate. Seeing as how this is Hawk and Stone's first year together, I'll assume they're still trying to get that intimacy, so I will give them a 7 foot cushion between their eyes. We'll also disregard any curvature to the upper deck or anything like that since the effect is miniscule. All that's left is the math.



From my calculations, it appears that the angle separating Hawk and Stone's view of home plate is 2 degrees. Surely baseball is a game of inches, but how big a difference is 2 degrees from 200 feet away in the eyes of a 67 year old man? Maybe he should also claim that the light from home plate arrived to his eyes about 12 nanoseconds before it did to Steve's eyes.

If umpires cant get calls right from 5 feet away there is really no point of trying to do so from 200. Prime example today when the home plate ump mistook a foul tip by Ryan Braun for getting hit in the head. I get those confused too.

Can Mark Buerhle Keep This Up?

I'm about to do something unprecedented- I'm going to write a generally unfavorable review about a White Sox player. Now it should be clear to anyone who knows me or has read my baseball analysis and comments to know that I am a huge White Sox fan. In fact, I even wrote an entire post to why I'm a big Buehrle fan, although dude's last name is still hard to spell. And I still do like Buehrle overall as a player, but right now he's doing amazing, and I don't think it will last.

Right now, the lefty is 4th in the AL in ERA, 2nd in Wins and record going 5-0 in six games started, and has a decently high IP (something I like about Buehrle because that means when he pitches he doesn't tax the bullpen). This is great news for me as a Sox fan because right now he's pitching extremely well for the team. Now Buehrle pitching extremely well should not really be that big of a surprise to anyone. While Fangraphs has pointed out that Buerhle is "consistently inconsistent", that doesn't mean there should be any reason why he can't be good. Last year and 2005 are both examples of Buehrle pitching great. But after looking at his peripherals and his career numbers, I don't think this right now can last.

Right now, Buehrle's FIP is 4.05. The two years it was ever that low was last year and 2005 where they both were under 4 (3.94 and a damn good 3.42 respectively). So that's not to say that his FIP can't ever be low and that he can't maintain this 4.05, but this seems a bit sketchy to me. But even if Buehrle can maintain this low of a FIP, he still does have a defense behind. And while theoretically Buehrle can have a low ERA and such, in reality, he's inducing balls into the 3rd worst defense in the majors in terms of UZR/150.

There are still other signs for concern. Right now the Sox ace has an 82.9 LOB% and an extremely low .245 BABIP. All these are abnormal for Buehrle. He's never had a LOB% above 76 and a BABIP under .282 since 2002 (in fact that low of a BABIP WAS in '02). Right now he's inducing less balls in play and getting more lucky that his runners aren't coming around to score. In fact, he's having more runners reach base because he's walking guys more now than ever while inducing less ground balls and more fly balls.

Buehrle's BB/9 is the highest its ever been in his career since his rookie season while is SO are remaining consistent with his career. His GB/FB has decreased significantly because the ground ball pitcher is inducing about 6% less ground balls and giving up about 6% more fly balls. He's also getting extremely lucky that the fly balls he's giving up, especially while calling his home a HR friendly park, aren't going for HRs. The guy has never really given up a whole lot of HRs in his career but his .71 HR/9 is the lowest its ever been in his career.

Buehrle is walking more guys, putting less balls in play yet giving up less ground balls and more fly balls, yet miraculously giving up less home runs, and getting really lucky that his runners aren't scoring. All of this while having one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him. All of this smells recipe for disaster.

I believe that Buehrle's cooshy low ERA and high W is going to come down. He's playing out of his mind and if he's on your fantasy team I would be happy to just ride out this luck as long as I can because it seems to me that soon he's going to have a couple of bad games. But despite all this, I think he'll have an average to above average year. I see no reason why this year can't be at least somewhat similar to his 2008 campaign. I see no reason why Buehrle's levels can't at least jump up to how they were in his greater years. I certainly don't believe he'll be as bad as he was in '06 or '07 but he won't as good as he was in '05 or '08 either.

What?

Can someone PLEASE explain how a player doubles to shortstop??

Revenge of the pitchers who haven't been good in a decade

Earlier this week, I took a look at two pitchers who are currently experiencing success despite having posted subpar seasons every year since the invention of iPod -- Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood -- and found another to pick apart: Randy Wolf.

Since being traded to Houston last season, Randy Wolf has pitched 113.1 innings of 3.34 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.22 WHIP baseball. Compared to his previous three seasons, the new and improved Randy Wolf has shaved the walks (3.02 BB/9), while maintaining a constant K/9 rate (7.39) and slightly decreasing his home run rate. He did all of this while posting a league average LOB%.

All of these factors signal sustainable improvement in Randy Wolf's game...until you consider the following:
1) Nothing in Randy Wolf's approach to the game has changed. According to Fangraphs, Wolf is using his fastball about 3% more (and his curveball 3% less), but his velocity, pitch selection, pitch mix and break have all remained constant against his career numbers (4.31 FIP, 4.22 ERA).
2) Randy Wolf's BABIP currently sits at .256. His career average BABIP is .298.
3) Randy Wolf's LD rate currently sits at 15.8%, the best he's posted since Fangraphs started cataloguing hit results since 2002. His LD rate average since 2002 is 21.1%.
4) Randy Wolf's GB/FB rate for 2009 is 0.80, down from his career average (0.95) and recent year rates (1.02 in '07, 1.00 in '08), and yet his HR/9 rate is also down. His 7.1 HR/FB% rate is 4.3% below the league average and 3.7% below his career average since 2002.
5) Randy Wolf is 32, soon to be 33, years old. If anything, he's at the end of his prime, not the beginning. Thus, the ceiling for improvement is -- mathematically speaking -- very limited.

So what does this all mean? This is certainly not to say that Randy Wolf isn't a very decent pitcher -- especially for fantasy. If one were to normalize his HR/9 rates, his FIP is still a tick below 4.00 -- in line with what it's been over the past 2+ seasons -- and an ERA below 4.00 is a very realistic expectation for Randy Wolf given his improved control over the past few seasons (his K/BB has been improving since 2006 -- two seasons of abnormally high BABIPs inflated Wolf's ERA well above his FIP).

However, one should not make the mistake of assuming Wolf to be any more than a Ted Lilly-like pitcher -- an above average #3 starter in front of a quality offense. He's going to have his rough outings from time to time, but over the course of 30+ starts he's going to put up solid numbers that will help your team's fantasy line. Don't forget that he plays for the Dodgers, who are averaging 5.6 runs per game (5.0 runs per game projected without Manny). If Wolf can continue to post a quality ERA, the wins will eventually come. Just expect a slight WHIP correction (his career hitability implies that he's more of the 1.3 variety) along the way.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder fielding a hard groundball hit by Ryan Braun in the third inning.

:(

____

Update: Ramirez will be out 4-6 weeks. Look at how much pain he is in.

Tony La Russa drunk on Pujol's power (and wine)

Thanks to The Bright One for this link.

ESPN Fancast is broken

Do you remember earlier this, when I highlighted a Baltimore Sun article about that claimed the Orioles wanted t share players with the Cardinals? Guess they chose the Yankees instead.

(In case you didn't notice, Fancast says that Jeter struck out for the Orioles and that Johnny Damon is facing C.C. Sabathia)

ESPN.com gets bedazzled

Apparently, last week, hackers installed the Konami code into the ESPN.com interface to yield magical results.

Why Don't We Care About College Baseball?

America seems to care a lot about college football and college basketball. I contend we care about college basketball mainly because of March Madness than because of the sport itself. But college football is huge and we seem love everything from the start to the end. But major league baseball is the second biggest sport in America behind football and more popular than basketball. So then why is it that we don't care about college baseball yet we care about other college sports?

Now I don't have studies or true causality behind any of my arguments and frankly if someone can give me a better explanation than what I give and can support their arguments I would appreciate. But I'd still like to think my arguments now make sense.

First, there's the argument that college baseball games aren't shown on national television. This make sense. Right now college baseball is in full effect and I haven't seen any game shows or advertised for on ESPN. I've seen games on The Big Ten network and I'm sure there are games that are aired on ESPN2 that I just haven't seen, but to be honest I've flipped through more college softball games than baseball games. Well, this logic seems to make sense. If people can't see the games, then they can't get interested in them. If ESPN and the major networks show games, then people would watch and then become interested.

However, I think the causality is skewed here. I believe that people don't care so the television stations don't show the games and not the other way around. If people did truly did care, then the stations would show the games. I contend that if the networks did show the games, it still wouldn't matter.

Not only that, but ESPN does show the college World Series. They do, although briefly, talk about certain aspects of the college WS throughout the afternoon ESPN shows and Sportscenter. But again, I think these things are only brief because we as a nation generally doesn't care.

So then why don't we care? We care about then MLB, but not the college game, why? My contention: It's because we can't follow college baseball players into the pros.

With college football and college basketball, you can immediately see how players make the transition. We saw Derek Rose go all the way to the championship game in the college game and take a mediocre NBA team to a great playoff series.

But we can't do this college baseball players. First of all, the vast majority of MLB players either come right out of high school or come from other countries. Most MLB players don't play college baseball. And the ones that do- aren't really the games elite. Obviously, many clubs (like the A's) try to draft college players because they get a better look at what kind of athlete they're getting. But even if you do have a great college baseball player, it takes time for that player to make it to the MLB. Immediately after the draft, players go immediately into the minor leagues. Its because of this that even if you wanted to, its would be difficult to follow your favorite college baseball player develop.

I think that is the major reason. However, another minor reason is because of history. College football and basketball have a great history and rivalries which means people grew up watching these major sports. Unfortunately, baseball hasn't done this so I think now its caused people to not care. However, this explanation does explain two things. 1) Why can't college baseball create history now? At some point sports need to start somewhere as there's no reason college baseball can;t soon soon if history is the sole reason and 2) Why at some point in the past did college baseball not start getting into the mainstream? I refuse to believe that college baseball was so poorly run for 100 years+ that they didn't at least try.

That's why I think it's because of the nature of of the minor leagues in baseball that people do not really follow or care for college baseball. Again, if you can think of a better reason and more significant proof, I'd love to hear it.

Most Useless Trade Ever

According to the Chicago Tribune the Cubs just traded speedy, but offensively useless OF Joey Gathright for Ryan Freel. According to Paul Sullivan, the Orioles plan to eat a large chunk of the contract cost of Freel.

I know Freel is a "utility" player (like DeRosa), but (unlike DeRosa), he's really bad at everything he does these days. He's hasn't positively contributed anything to his team - - with either his bat or his glove -- since 2006.

Why make this move, I wonder? Both Gathright and Freel are on pace for -1.0+ WAR seasons.

2009 AL Cy Young Winner: Zach Greinke or Fransisco Liriano?

The reason for this heading, is because four out of the past five AL CY Young winners have come from the AL Central.

2008- Cliff Lee (Indians)
2007- C.C. Sabathia (Indians)
2006- Johan Santana (Twins)
2004- Johan Santana (Twins)

Now, yes, if we want to go into my own flawed causality logic we should say the winner should come from either the Indians or the Twins, and therefore Liriano should win it.

But in the beginning of the year I predicted who would be the best from each division (I DID say the winner of my MVP from the AL West would be Ian Kinsler and he's proving me right so far...) But anyway, my Cy Young from the AL Central I said would be Fransisco Liriano. I wish I had done runners-up like I had planned to because then I would have out Greinke there. Despite whatever Fangraphs and DME and what anyone else says, I still contend that Liriano will still have a monster season (barring injury) just because whenever he's pitched he's always put up great numbers. Therefore I do think, at the end of the year when all is said and done, the two best pitchers from the AL Central will still be Liriano and Greinke. And because recent history suggests that the actual AL Cy Young will come from the Central, one of these two guys will win it this year. Plus, who else will win it?

So, who you got?

Who needs Manny?

Last season, Andre Ethier claimed that Manny as lineup protection enabled him to see better pitches. The unquestionable demi-gods over at Baseball Prospectus claim otherwise. If the Dodgers do the smart thing and put Kemp in the batting order where he belongs (certainly not #7 in the order, behind Russell "most overrated catcher ever" Martin and James "overrated piece of shit who wishes he was Derrek Lee and proved so by hitting into 25 GIDP last season" Loney), their offense should be fine. If you don't believe me, compare the runs created projection (using Juan Pierre's 2008 batting line) with an efficient post-Manny lineup (5.05 runs per game) compared to the Dodger's Manny-infused lineup (5.65 runs per game). Sure, the team loses about one-half a run per game without Manny's power/on base in the offensive picture, but that can easily be compensated if you expect James Loney and Russell Martin to each slug above .310 this season and more efficiently organize the lineup card.

Funny Fact: The Dodgers batted Juan Pierre 9th last night, behind the pitcher Randy Wolf. According to ESPN, Juan Pierre has batted in the 9th spot more than any other player on the team, including everyone on the pitching staff.

In Defense Of Steroids: Manny Ramirez Edition

You can read my original post defending steroid usage in baseball here

Now if anyone had turned on their T.V. in the past few hours, I'm sure they are well aware that one of the greatest baseball players of all time, Manny Ramirez, has tested positive for steroids. Now I was all for giving players a free pass in the court of public opinion if you used steroids before 2003. I understand that EVERYBODY seemingly was doing it and if all these people around you are doing something, it's extremely hard for you to resist temptation. Again, I don't excuse their actions 100%, but I can see where their coming from. If parents don't tell their middle schooler or high schooler about the dangers of underage drinking and drug usage, then you shouldn't get mad when they get arrested one night with a DUI. Same thing here. These players weren't warned about the dangers of what they were doing and saw no negative consequences for their action until years later.

But those consequences did come. A handful of sluggers linked to steroids were summoned to Congress to testify. They vehemently denied all allegation. After that, the public never forgave those athletes for what they had done. This materialized in the fact that Mark McGuire has never come close to becoming a Hall of Famer. So after that, why do players still use steroids. Braves prospect Jordan Schaffer used steroids in the minor leagues last year, but he did it to earn a spot on a major league roster. But Manny Ramirez? The guy was great all throughout his career. Even if he did use steroids to put up all those good numbers, it's silly to continue usage.

Manny just signed a two year deal with the Dodgers. A big factor Manny signed in LA was because, really, no other team wanted him. Manny put up great numbers in the past two months of baseball to warrant big contracts from clubs. But no other teams would bite. So when Manny did sign a two year deal, and probably would have ended his career soon after that. So why still use steroids? Even if he sucks the next two years, it wouldn't matter but I can't imagine him going to another team anyway (at least not for the money he wanted) and he still would get his money no matter his performance. A-Rod can sort of cop out and use the expectation/ big contract card, but Manny can't (although granted he hasn't). Frankly, after the steroid policy is baseball was set in place, I can not excuse anyone, especially Manny's actions.

Now I still contend Manny should be in the Hall of Fame. Even if he used steroids his entire career in the MLB, he still had great plate recognition and a great swing. And although he might not have hit as many HRs as he did, he still would have had a shit ton under his belt. Not only that, but I'm sure the vast majority if pitchers were juicing too. If a juiced hitter hits a HR off of a juiced pitcher, isn't that still the same and if neither did steroids? Now I know I'm going to unfortunately have to hear a lot about this on ESPN over the next couples weeks (hell if ManRam's contract negotiations lasted months, I can't imagine where this is going...), but please ESPN, for the love of Jesus, stop promogulating steroid usage!!!

Manny Ramirez Suspended 50 Games For Drug Policy Violation

Manny was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for performance enhancing substances.

Quote Manny:

“Recently I saw a physician for a personal health issue. He gave me a medication, not a steroid, which he thought was OK to give me,” Ramirez said in a statement issued by the players’ union.

Unfortunately, the medication was banned under our drug policy. Under the policy that mistake is now my responsibility. I have been advised not to say anything more for now. I do want to say one other thing; I’ve taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons.”

There goes my and I'm sure many of your fantasy leagues. Good luck next year (especially if you started Bronson Arroyo last night).

:(

HAVOC: The Red's Rotation

I wouldn't argue that Arroyo or Owings inspires any fear in the hearts of NL batters, but I'm shocked that I have yet to see any advertising for the Red's rotation by abbreviation:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Micah Owings
Johnny Cueto

H.A.V.O.C.

Can Kansas City Really Make The Playoffs?

Right now, the Kansas City Royals are in first place. Just let that thought sink into your head. Kansas City, the team that has been the laughing stock of Major League Baseball for so long is in first place. Last year, the perennial losers, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (after dropping the "Devil" from their name) made it all the way to the World Series. Right now, the Royals are looking to do the same.

Currently, they have THE best pitcher in baseball in Zack Greinke and are holding on to a two game lead in the AL Central. But how many times have we as baseball fans seen this before. Teams all the time get off to hot starts and end up sizzling come June. So I beg the question: are the Kansas City Royals for real?

Well the cliche we hear all the time is that if a team is to be successful, it's all about pitching and defense. Now frankly, you can win it all with offense but pitching and defense can take you far. Right now, the Royals have the second best FIP in all of baseball, only to the Braves. This is actually falling in line with their ERA, seeing as the team only has a E-F of -0.06. Not only do the Royals have Greinke but also Gil Meche who currently has the 5th best FIP. Although the team also has Sidney Ponson (5.06 FIP, 7.16 ERA) and Kyle Davies (5.62 FIP, 5.88 ERA) and both have average to below average K/9 and K/BB. But as a whole team, the Royals are doing very well.

Their defense is also doing very well rating 10th in UZR/150. Coco Crisp is the second best defender in all of baseball only to Joe Crede (fucker couldn't play THIS good in Chicago- mainly last year, but I digress...) and Mark Teahan is currently playing above average defensively. But when Billy Butler is you're team's 3rd best defender and you only have 4 defenders in the top 100 in UZR/150, you're on shaky grounds. To add to that, David DeJesus is playing below average defense and that middle infield of Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is just atrocious right now. But I'll give them their props of doing very well as a team.

But pitching and defense means nothing if you can't score SOME runs. This has actually been the huge criticism of the team now and continues to be a concern going forward. But right now, the Royals are 13th in Runs Scored, 11th in BB, 14th in wOBA, and 13th in OPS. This is almost literally- average. Out of 30 teams they're barely above 15th in all these categories. But yet despite all of this, the team is 7th overall by record in terms of runs scored according to Baseball Prospectus. However, if they can maintain this, I really don't see this as TOO MUCH of a problem. Because if you're really good at preventing runs, then scoring runs isn't AS big of a deal as it should be (see 2008 Angels).

But despite the pretty good success of the Royals, BP still projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division giving them about a 41.5% chance versus the Royals at a measly 22%. See this I don't understand. I can see it plausible the Royals start is a fluke, but to say the Tigers of all teams will beat them out? Even if Justin Verlander reverts back to his old self (which according to DME and I agree he can at least come close), and Armando Galarraga doesn't suck all year, I still think Greinke and Meche are better. I also have a hard time believing Edwin Jackson will continue to be THIS good (even remotely good) and Rick Porcello hasn't shown anything yet. The White Sox and Royals currently have a better FIP than the Tigers and Kansas City and the Twins have better UZR/150. The Royals have a better team wOBA than Detroit. better BB%, better OPS, and have only scored 10 less runs than Detroit (yet are still 2 games ahead). Now I think in the end the Tigers will have a better offense and I will admit that although the Royals are currently ahead of the Tigers in many categories, the lead isn't THAT big. But enough to warrant a a 20% better chance to make the playoffs boggles my mind.

Now I'm sure DME can better explain to me BPs reasoning because I'm sure it is valid and I'm sure he'll explain why Kansas City probably will fizzle out before June. But the fact that the Royals have a damn fine pitching corps, an above average defense, and decent hitting along with playing in one of the worst divisions in baseball, I think they do have a legit shot. Now seeing this team lose so badly for the past 4 years or so and not seeing them making any drastic changes makes me personally question how far this team can go and seeing as these stats I looked up are only a month old, I still think they can be contenders in the end. Again, a terrible division doesn't hurt either.

So are the Kansas City Royals for real? Probably not. But can they compete for most if not all of the year? I think so.

Ron Artest is a psychopath

Watching the Rockets in these playoffs, I have been very impressed with the play of Ron Artest. He is the shut down defender that he established way back in the day when he was a Bull. He plays physically, with enough fitness to score 25 points on any given night. It appeared as though he was turning his image around and finally growing up. That is until 10 minutes ago when he up and snapped into the old Ron Artest. After going for the offensive rebound against Kobe Bryant, he was called for the loose ball foul. To my eye, it initially looked like it was a foul on Kobe, but everyone knows that the superstars get all the calls in the NBA. On the replay, it actually showed Kobe giving Artest a half elbow to the throat. Artest immediately went to the ref to plead his case, but refs in the NBA are as arrogant as any other sport. Artest immediately went after Kobe, got in his face, and looked like he wanted to go hard. As artest got that psychotic look in his eye, he was dragged away by the refs and teammates, at which point he gave one of the biggest taboo signals possible. The throat slash.

This is one of most heinous gestures in sports. It used to be more accepted as athletes showing a killer instinct, but in the last decade, it has become an unacceptable signal showing the ultimate disrespect to your opponent. Not to mention an intent to kill when your dealing with people like Ron Artest. Theh throat slash has been heavily penalized in football, and i'm sure Artest will also receive a hefty penalty if he did indeed gesture the slash toward Kobe. It may even result in a suspension. Stranger things have happened.

Recap

We've done a lot of posts in the last week and several ones that I think are quite interesting (perhaps because I wrote them and am a pompous ass) ended up getting buried. Here's a quick look at the fantasy analysis (the majority of which focused on pitchers) I've done this week in case you're interested:

• I analyzed the recent success of both Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood and their potential for sustained success
• I took a look at the recent struggles of Josh Beckett and found room for hope
• I also took a look at the recent struggles of Justin Verlander and found him to be the perfect buy low candidate for your fantasy team
• Lastings Milledge is struggling in AAA and will never amount to half of what Elijah Dukes can do
• I chronicled the recent life of Elijah Dukes
• I highlighted an article on ESPN that analyzed BABIP rates that could provide you with invaluable insight on how to scout baseball players

Enjoy.

Maybe Grindiness isn’t so bad after all

(Obligatory pause while Sexy Rexy and MVP Eckstein yell at their computer screens)

Yes, that is right, maybe grindiness is not so bad after all. Maybe effort does count for something. The New Yorker’s Malcolm Gladwell (Author of Outliers, among other books) recently wrote an article entitled How David Beats Goliath: When underdogs break the rules. In the article, Gladwell analyzes how upsets happen. About 30 percent of the time in all sports matches, the underdog beats the favorite. If the team is really the favorite, then how does one account for the relatively high number of upsets, especially at lower levels of competition. At the pro level of any sport, more parity exists because games pit top-tier athletes against each other. At the amateur level, like say college basketball or college football, elite programs tend to accumulate much more talent than other programs. On paper, top-tier college sports programs should beat mid-major or lesser programs almost all the time. Yet, as NCAA men’s basketball tournament shows, this is certainly not always the case.

So how does a David go about beating a Goliath? In the article, Gladwell shows how underdogs can beat the favorites by utilizing unconventional tactics in combination with increased effort. The prime example he uses is a teenage girl’s basketball team from Silicon Valley, California. The team is comprised mostly of white girls and an Indian girl, the coach’s daughter, a group with little basketball knowledge and skills. The team has little innate athletic talent and is composed of a group not traditionally known for their basketball skills. Yet, they were able to be successful. They accomplished this by utilizing unusual tactics that caught their opponents off guard, namely by constantly using a full court press. Their use of unconventional tactics bewildered opponents and allowed them to win without having superior basketball skills. Gladwell uses numerous examples, including interviewing Louisville men’s basketball coach Rick Pitino, to back up his unusual tactics argument.

Now here is where grindiness comes in. If a team is to properly utilize an uncommon tactic, it needs to exert the proper amount of energy and effort. For example, using the team Gladwell chronicles, in order to properly execute a full-court press for an entire game and during every game, the team has to be willing and able to be constantly running and moving. By retreating after every shot made, a team can recover. Executing a full-court press means the team cannot recover, but that also means the players have to be willing to put in the requisite effort needed to constantly execute the strategy without a recovery period. According to Gladwell, if an underdog is to succeed, it needs an uncommon strategy combined with large amounts of effort and energy.

Really, if you have the time, read the article in full because my summary can only do it so much justice. The main point about uncommon tactics combined with effort has many clear sports connections, but only with true team sports. For example, think about the 2008 Miami Dolphins. They used an unusual tactic, the Wildcat formation and other high school sets, to get them into the playoffs. However, such unusual tactics usually involve more running. More players have to be sprinting during a triple reverse than say a simple run up the middle. As far as I can tell, I do not know how to incorporate unusual tactics into individual sports. Is Michael Phelps’ bong an unusual swimming tactic? Does Roger Federer put a different spin on the ball? Even for a sport like baseball, teams would have a difficult time instituting an unusual tactic. Adding an extra outfielder or infielder? I am not sure.

The basic point is that unusual tactics work, but they usually require more effort than conventional tactics do. See, grindiness is not so bad after all.

You have not seen the last of Stephen A.

Now that Stephen A Smith has officially left ESPN to pursue a career in something suckier than ESPN, he has started up his own website such that you can get your Stephen A fix each and every day. If you also desire, you can have Stephen A scream at you and tell you how stupid you are over twitter 24/7. I can already envision in 2 months Stephen A doing local radio out of Wichitard, Kansas. Very smart leaving the world wide leader in sports

ESPN has the best writers

Today, ESPN had another installment in my favorite headlines:

Indefatigable G Hiller lifts Ducks past Wings

Indefatigable? Really? I had no idea ESPN had such extensive vocabulary. Kudos to them. They must have rocked the old SAT analogy section. Too bad good vocab doesn't translate into good analysis.

Although after that high intelligence point, it went downhill from there because I next decided to read Lil' Wayne's sports blog. Yep, that's right, none other than Weezy has a sports blog. If you couldn't already tell by his lyrics, the vocab in his blog is simple and his analysis is even simpler. But that's assuming he actually writes it and doesn't have a ghost writer. I think that would be a great job, Lil' Wayne's ghost writer. You could write whatever you wanted and nobody would really second guess your analysis. Plus, the job would take about five minutes and then you could just mooch off Weezy the rest of the time. I need to seriously consider this as a career option. Anyways, his blog is amusing and worth a look if you haven't already seen it. Although, if Weezy is really getting the type of insider information that he claims to be getting, then maybe he knows more about sports than I give him credit for. Somehow I doubt that.

On the topic of Lil' Wayne, I found this chart that chronicles the music tastes of high school students and their corresponding SAT scores. Granted, I highly doubt its accuracy and it incorrectly corroborates correlation with causation, but it is interesting nonetheless. At the top score end of the chart, students listened to Beethoven and Sufjan Stevens. At the low score end is none other than Lil' Wayne. Having listened to his rap lyrics, somehow I'm not terribly surprised.

The Tumultuous Tale Of Elijah Dukes

Inspired by my earlier post, I decided to dig a little into past of Darryl Strawberry Elijah Dukes and found tales so bizarre, they are downright hilarious. Unbeknown to me, Elijah Dukes and his "Dawg" talk have secretly become an internet meme among baseball bloggers.

• Elijah Dukes threatens to kill wife, kids with gun
• Elijah Dukes "consensually rapes" a 17 year old girl, dawg
• Elijah Dukes' mom begs women to stop trying to get pregnant with Elijah Dukes' seed
• Elijah Dukes addresses his image in the media
• Elijah Dukes is accused of being on steroids, threatens to kill wife (again)
• Elijah Dukes is traded to the Nationals
• Elijah Dukes is texting again, dawg
• Elijah Dukes gets an early Christmas present
• Elijah Dukes goes golfing
• Elijah Dukes apologizes, opts to not murder Mike Pelfrey
• Elijah Dukes may have to go to jail (again)
• Elijah Dukes shows up an umpire
• Elijah Dukes fined after charity work made him late for actual work, little league pays fine

On top of this, the following information about Elijah Dukes' off field life is available on Wikipedia:

• In 1996, Dukes' father was convicted of second-degree murder. One year later, Dukes was arrested for the first time. Dukes has been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault. According to court records, he fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006.
• On May 23, 2007, it was reported that his wife filed a restraining order after he threatened to kill her. On June 12, a 17-year-old foster child who was living in the care of a relative of Dukes accused him of impregnating her. Police said the sex was apparently consensual. When the girl confronted Dukes, he allegedly got angry and threw a bottle of Gatorade at her.
• Dukes has received anger management training. When Dukes was traded to the Nationals, the team also hired an ex-police officer in the role of "Special Assistant: Player Concerns". This person accompanies Dukes everywhere to ensure that he keeps himself free of trouble.

Digging Into The Numbers

Tristan Crockcroft of ESPN.com just wrote a very interesting fantasy analysis that breaks down BABIP and peripheral stats by hit type. According to five year data from 2004-2008:

• The league average BABIP on groundballs was .239
  
• The league average BABIP on flyballs was .138
  
• The league average HR/FB percentage was 9.2%
  
• The league average BABIP on line drives was .725
  

Cool stuff, bro.

The Suns Tweet

Steve Nash: "Rondo just tried to dunk on dwight howard! wish i could do that once in my life..."

Shaq: "Just got dat underwater ipod adaption device jammy so I can hear music unda water, I b aqua jammin, Waaaa Waaa Shaq-mu The quilla ..."

Shaq: "bout to get my shaqlite/micheal phelps ( without the bong) lol, swim wrkout on, 20 laps , one hr of swimming< calvin klein here i come"

OK, not a Suns player but Chris Bosh: "Rock band party before we go out. This is actually kinda fun"

Bizarro Baseball

When some people want to learn how to not suck at batting, they take lessons from a guy who walks 90+ times a season and has 60 home run power (albeit with steroids). Lastings Milledge, however, is getting batting advice/approval from none other than Corey Patterson.

Aggressive Milledge Seeking Lost Form

From August 1 until the end of last season, Milledge hit .318/.378/.485 with 7 homers and 11 steals in only 52 games by swinging less at bad pitches.

SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- Corey Patterson took his place behind the batting cage, nodding in approval as Lastings Milledge took his cuts.

For your consideration, Corey Patterson is a lifetime .253/.291/.407 hitter. He has only once (in his injury-shortened 2003 season) slugged above .450. He has only once walked more than 23 times in a season. Only once hit more than 16 home runs in a season. Only thrice hit over 19 doubles in a season. Only once batted above .276 (again, the injury-shortened 2003 season) and only twice batted above .269. His career wOBA is .305.

Who now, who I asks, gives a shit if Corey Patterson gives approval of another's approach at the plate? That's like saying L. Ron Hubbard approves of another person's made up religion.

An impending storm forced the players to the indoor cages before a recent rainout here at Alliance Bank Stadium, where playing baseball in April is typically a risky proposition. Five other members of the Syracuse Chiefs lingered, waiting their turn, knowing the extra work would not come in handy on this night.

But the veteran outfielder Patterson intently watched Milledge, the talented 24-year-old abruptly demoted to Class AAA by the Washington Nationals after one week and 24 at-bats. Milledge, the team's Opening Day center fielder and leadoff batter. Milledge, one of the young foundations on a franchise dying for any sort of progress.

Milledge wanted more time. "It was just one week," he said.

With Adam Dunn, a healthy/productive Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes in the outfield mix, Lastings Milledge never really belonged as the starting CF in the first place. Where Milledge had a -5.1 UZR/150 in CF this season (-20.1 UZR/150 last season), was walking 4.0% (6.8% last season) of the time and had zero XBHs (.134 ISO last season), Dukes has been worth +2.7 fielding runs (+44.3 UZR/150 last season) in +300 innings of outfield play, walking at a 9.4% clip (15.3 BB% last year, 14.5% career) and has already racked up 3 homers with a .208 ISO (.213 ISO last season). Elijah Dukes is, in every possible capacity, better than Lastings Milledge.

Now, nearly three weeks into his minor league assignment, Milledge proclaims his swing is back. He quickly ditched the patient approach Washington wanted from him. He is here, the unlikeliest of places as the second month of the baseball season commences, free-swinging with a sour taste in his mouth.

Hitting for average is not the by product of impatient hacking, but rather that of good pitch recognition, hitting line drives and having good speed.

"I can see it through his actions that he has a plan now and it's coming out," said Patterson, a nine-year major league player. "Where before, like the first one or two days, I didn't see that."

The best and only nice thing that the Wall Street Journal can say about Corey Patterson is that he is "a nine-year major league player."

The Nationals had justification for the demotion. Milledge hit .167 in his seven games at the top of the order. He struck out 10 times against one walk. Washington's leading home run and run producer in 2008 had mustered zero homers and one RBI. Also, he struggled in center field.

Technically, the team's leading runs producers, in terms of wOBA, was Elijah Dukes -- who, in under 300 ABs, had 13 home runs. In fact, the following players (min 150 PA) all were better at runs creation than Lastings Milledge (.325 wOBA, below league average) last season: Elijah Dukes (.382 wOBA), Nick Johnson (.374 wOBA), Ronnie Belliard (.369 wOBA), Ryan Langerhans (.353 wOBA), Dmitri Young (.352 wOBA), Cristian Guzman (.341 wOBA), Willie Harris (.340 wOBA), Ryan Zimmerman (.336 wOBA).

To his credit however, Lastings Milledge's trying to kill your wife per nine (TKW/9) is much lower than Elijah Dukes, dawg.

It still doesn't sit well with Milledge, who wears a blue T-shirt and red shorts emblazoned with Nationals logos. He says he has lost faith in the organization's coaching staff.

Baseball gave up on more than just the National's coaching staff loooooong ago.

"From now on, I'm going to do what I feel like I have to do to be the best for the team, regardless of what other people say," Milledge said. "When it's all said and done, I know myself better than anyone else."

Just watch this:

The transition to leadoff for an aggressive hitter such as Milledge was underestimated, he said. The Nationals wanted a different approach at the plate from a player who has struggled through his first two major league seasons to stay consistent.

If I ran a baseball team, I'd want a different approach from a guy who hit .267/.326/.400 in just over 1000 career PA too.

That is why, for now, the experiment is on hold.

Actually, the .299/.365/.506 and +2.7 fielding runs above average put up by Elijah Dukes this season is the reason the experiment is on hold, dawg.

Since joining the Chiefs on April 17, Milledge has yet to bat first. Instead, he has batted second 10 times and third four times. Through 14 games in Syracuse, Milledge is hitting .263, with a .333 slugging percentage, four doubles and three RBI. He still hasn't homered.

"I don't think he's a leadoff hitter," Syracuse Manager Tim Foli said.

A .326 OBP has not screamed "bat me first" since Joe Torre realized that playing Juan Pierre on the bench was more valuable to the team than playing him in the #1 hole.

Foli said Milledge's primary task while at Class AAA is to build a routine that will breed that consistency. For Milledge, that means returning to what he knows best.

Did you watch the youtube video I just posted?

Milledge is a free swinger, not the usual mold of a leadoff batter. He said Nationals officials wanted him to see 12 to 15 pitches per game, which meant taking more pitches than usual. Here, there are no guidelines.

This sentence sounds like a monologue from the baseball remake of Logan's Run.

Nationals acting general manager Mike Rizzo was noncommittal on Milledge's future role with the team. He echoed Foli's sentiments, saying the priority is for Milledge to play as much as possible -- without regard for where he is hitting in the lineup. Rizzo would offer no timetable for Milledge's stay in the minors.

"He's got to get as many at-bats as he can down there," Rizzo said. "Not necessarily in the leadoff position or in the No. 3 position."

Rizzo said he is pleased with the reports he has received about Milledge's demeanor; unprompted, Foli said that Milledge's attitude has been "great."

There have been no less than three references in this article, thus far, that have indicated that Milledge's attitude is the opposite of great. He hates the coaches, refuses to listen to their advice and is doing his own thing. "I know myself better than anyone else" -- how is that a great attitude for a guy who just got demoted and is in need of a different plate approach?

Milledge remains somewhat positive. The demotion means he is out of options and Milledge said it is a chance to play in front of other teams that could be interested in him down the line.

I smell a rule 5. Plenty of teams like to give ABs to a guy whose career ISO matches Neifi Perez's career high season in isolated power (.140 in 2000, when he was playing in Coors Field).

"Maybe somebody will remember how I played down here," he said. "I don't like to say I'm being punished right now."

Lastings Milledge is hitting .263/.300/.333 in AAA. Enough said.

As he sits outside the dimly lit indoor batting cage, Milledge smacks his black bat against the AstroTurf. He notices a white scuff mark, licks his finger and wipes it off. He pretends to swing a few times and looks down.

"Let your bat do the talking," he says. "It's the only thing you can do."

David Eckstein-like words of gritty, grindy wisdom! The world is a cruel, twisted place, where Corey Patterson gives major league players batting advice and 2 plus 2 makes 5.

Dice-Cash

So what did the Seibu Lions do with the $51.1 million they charged the Red Sox to just talk with Dice-K? They invested it in, amongst other things, electronically warmed toilet seats. How fitting.

Box Score Tonight: May 4

Could someone answer this question for me once and for all. Why is a sac fly not an official at-bat, but an RBI groundout is? Maybe it's one of Bud Selig's rules, fucker

• Ohhh Javy Vasquez. Nice job cluttching up. After 5 scoreless innings, he man's up and gives up 6 over the next 2 with 3 homers. At least he struck out 8! Beltran is quietly the best player in the NL.
• Jon Lester has 43K in 37IP but a disturbing 7 homers against. Oh, he also overcame cancer.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman appears back to his 2007 form as seen through his wOBA.
• Liriano finally gets his first win of the season and Denard Span is proving he's no 4th outfielder hitting .323 with 8 steals.
• Matt Capps blows his first save, despite a 7.56 era. He may be the next closer casualty. Ricky Weeks with a game winning 3 run bomb.
• Kerry Wood blew a save and has a 7.2 era. Thats why you dont pay a closer 10 mil. I dont care who it is. Matt Laporta begins to fill CC's shoes, all 22 inches and 500 pound, with his first homer.
• It's a shame the Orioles pitching is so bad giving up a .301 BA against, 12 points higher than any other team. Still the offense came through today between Roberts and Markakis
• Here's how dumb dusty baker is. He put a pitcher in his bullpen, Daniel Herrera, who's average fastball is 83mph. He took the loss today in 14 innings to the Marlins. Apparently Baker missed the Shingo Takatsu experiment the white sox tried several year ago. At least he threw 86.
• Ryan Theriot has gone deep 3 out of the last 4 games. I believe the record for consecutive games with a homer is Griffey and Thome at 8 games. The-Riot can do it! He did OPS .934 in 134 at-bats in 2006.
  
• Zack Greinke came in with a 0.50 ERA, it went down after a complete game shutout. Whatever medication he's taking, I want it!! He currently has a 1.47 FIP, which is still higher than Pedro had in 1999 of 1.39 - best pitcher ever.
  
• Ryan Howard hits another grand slam. I believe DME isnt the biggest howard fan, despite his career .395 wOBA.
  
• Joe Saunders managed 7K in 6.2IP thanks to Jack Cust golden Sombrero 4K. Beane claims to have the bet young pitching in baseball. I will admit they are young
• Chris Iannetta hits a grand slam and Sexyrexy still refuses to start him in fantasy. Please play Kurt Suzuki all year long. Please
• It's May, which means King Felix is in operation shut down. I will admit he is the best one April pitcher ever
• I'm ready to crown the Dodgers, cause they are who we thought they were, and we let em off the hook!

• 
  

One Up, One Down

Jarrod Washburn (2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and Kevin Millwood (2.13 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who probably went undrafted in your leagues this season, have been surprisingly effective through April. Their FIPs are each at least a full run above their ERA, but I still like one of them...can you guess which? I'll analyze each.

JARROD WASHBURN
Washburn is as old as dirt and he's hasn't been good since sod was invented. Since 2002, his ERA has been 4.3 or higher (often much higher) all but once (2005, when it was 3.20). Over this same time period, Jarrod Washburn's single season best FIP was 4.35 (in 2005). With the exception of 2005, his FIP has been +4.5 since 2002. In fact, throughout his entire career, Washburn's FIP has only been below 4.35 ONCE (2002, when it was 3.71).

Despite posting sub-3 BB/9 rates (very good) in all but one season since 2000, Washburn's control has often been burned by posting a career 1.15 HR/9 rate (and this gopher rate didn't improve when he moved to Safe Co. Park) and an anemic 5.37 K/9 rate. As all of these number should indicate, Washburn has problems getting guys out on his own and can't get out of jams. He put the ball in play often (5% above league average) and relies heavily on the defenders behind him to succeed...which is why I like him in 2009.

Despite his home run tendencies in a spacious field, flyballer Jarrod Washburn is backed up by three outfielders (Chavez, Gutierrez, Ichiro) who rank top 10 amongst all players in UZR/150 (86 runs above average, collectively) by a large margin. Even back up outfielders Ronny Cedeno (32 UZR/150), Wladimir Balentien (37.9 UZR/150) and Ken Griffey Jr. (58 UZR/150) have chipped in over 100 collective innings of work to keep the green covered. Surely, such high UZR ratings from a guy like Griffey won't continue, but the rest of the OF a testament to the defensive direction the Mariners have taken their team in 2009. Even though their batting lines are Mendoza like (well, except Ichiro, who has uncharacteristically posted a Mendoza-like batting line thus far this season), the Mariners' outfield is among (if not) the best defensively in baseball and since runs differential is as equally made up of Runs Prevention as Runs Creation, could be a formula for success.

This defense-heavy team yields to me several conclusions:
1) The closer of this team is going to get a lot of Save Opportunities. A lackluster offense is going to make the bulk of the Mariners' wins close games (3 runs or less).
2) Flyballs that aren't home runs are going to be converted into outs. This means that a guy like Washburn, who doesn't walk guys very often (2.77 BB/9 career) and keeps all but 35% of his balls in play off the ground, is going to post some great numbers -- even if he isn't striking guys out -- because he's less likely to have to pitch out of jams and have guys on the basepaths.

Over the course of 200+ IP, I confidently claim that Washburn will end up with a sub-4 ERA (is 3.70 realistic?), double digit wins and a 1.3 WHIP.

KEVIN MILLWOOD
Oh K.W., where shall we begin? It's bad enough you pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington, but the declining K's and fastball velocity since 2004 are downright worrisome. Despite decent peripherals over the past few years, I question what a 4.00 FIP and 1.0 HR/9 rate look like at place like Arlington (actually, it looks like this). It's true that Millwood limits his free passes (2.72 BB/9 career) and keeps the ball out of the air at a pretty good rate (1.34 GB/FB on the Rangers), but Millwood has often been the victim of above average peripherals (2.62 K/BB career) and bad results (he's only thrice posted a sub-4 ERA in his career, never sub-4.5 in Arlington).

Compared to last season, not much in Millwood's approach has changed. His 2.75 K/BB is up slightly from last year's 2.55 rate, but so are his home runs (1.18 per nine this season, compared to 0.96 per nine last year). In terms of how they proportionately impact runs prevention, a strikeout is worth -2 points, walk is worth +3 points and a home run is worth +13 points. Thus, marginal gains in control are completely overshadowed and erased by even more marginal gains in long ball rates. This all indicates one thing: Millwood's current 2.13 is quite deceptive. His FIP is a full 2.12 runs higher, which indicates some rocky times are ahead for Millwood this season.

At best, Millwood may put up solid numbers in spot starts on the road in Oakland and Seattle. You don't want to know what Kevin Millwood's dark side looks like.

Millwood for Nolasco or Cueto may be a trade someone is willing to take. If so, you better offer it soon, while Millwood's value is still at its peak.

Et Tu, Beckett?

As anyone who follows this blog/does a player name search on this blog will tell you, I am a huge Josh Beckett fan. Despite his poor surface numbers (ERA, Wins), Josh Beckett was still good in 2008 -- just incredibly unlucky. Beckett's inflated BABIP (.327 in 2008, .303 career) and abnormally high LD% (25.2% in 2008, 19.7% career) collectively conspired against his peripherals (3.2 FIP) to produce a less than flashy 4.03 ERA.

The increased line drive rate (bad) comes against a control rate (K/BB) that has increased (good) for three straight season (2.14, 4.85, 5.06). Since 2007, Beckett has shaved his BB/9 rate to a stingy and consistent 1.78, while increasing his K rate from 8.70 to 8.88 to 9.73. Dig a little deeper into Beckett's numbers and you will find that since 2004, Beckett has posted a 1.2 GB/FB every year like clockwork.

Diagnosis? Fate hates Josh Beckett. Last season's numbers indicate that he should have been better and this year's peripherals say nothing different. Despite a 7.22 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 36 hits in under 29 IP, Beckett's FIP, thanks to quality HR/9 and stellar K/9 rates, sits at a significantly less scary 4.04. Beckett's been uncharacteristically wild this season (5.02 BB/9), but even if you were to expect him to regress to his pre-Red Sox career average walk rate (3.2 per nine), his K/BB would still be +3. Is it so unreasonable to expect a guy who has posted a consistent sub-1.8 BB/9 rate each of the past two seasons to regain command of his pitches? Beckett's simply not as wild as he has been in his last three starts (6.31 BB/9) and the rest of his peripherals are all solid (9.73 K/9, 0.94 HR/9) and in line with his numbers over the past two seasons.

The case of Josh Beckett is one of pure bad lack that will correct itself over the course of a 30+ start season. Matthew Berry has as an irrational hatred of Beckett as he did with Bartolo Colon in his prime (on his Fantasy Focus podcast last week, Berry claimed he would rather have Dice-K over Beckett, which is absolutely absurd) and you should take advantage of any owner who faithfully subscribes to Berry's word or shares his impatient irrationalities. Beckett will get better and this is the perfect time to get him at a deep discount.

Even if you can't steal Josh Beckett from an owner in your league, you could probably get away with swapping him out for James Shields before their respective ERA's and WHIP 's flip flop. You might even be able to get a nice toss-in with the deal (David Aardsma? Jarrod Washburn?).

I'm gonna regret this post

I was on Cubs.com, all of you should check out the ads to the right, especially stuff like fangraphs and the mlb store, well i came across Alyssa Milano's baseball fashion line and was greatly unimpressed. Considering i've been in love with this girl since forever, I was expecting much more common sense. Most of the items are overpriced tops with team logos. However, two items stood out to me are being a little off, like the snuggie type of off.

I'm not really sure what this is. Are you suppose to sleep in it, go to a ball game in this, or just have it laying at the side of the bed? Let compare this to what Mariah Carey's interpretation of sports ware should be.



I think the winner is pretty clear to us all. Nothing snuggylicious about that Jordan Uni


This is my second complaint. The front is good. The back is hallucinogenic. It looks like she took those curvy construction paper scissors we used in grade school and went to work on the back of the tank top. I know she's trying to be creating and get her own look, but just make it normal and everyone will be happy.

No gay jokes. There's nothing gay about these two ladies

Box Score Tonight is Back Bitches

I finally finished my senior thesis. I still had reservations about bringing back BST as it was cutting into my sleeping time, and i need my beauty sleep. But I feel like it's a big part of the blog, so the show will go on. And lets face it, 'mvp' Eckstein had like a -21 VORP.

• The Indians have played .500 baseball since i last posted, which means they are still 7 games under heading into May. A friend of mine was recently at an Indians game with 12K in attendance, where they were begging people to buy tickets behind home plate for $25, or they would have to sell them to Red Sox fans. This was written on the jumbo-tron! I recall when Jacobs Field once had a 500 game sell-out streak back in the Lofton, Thome, Manram years. Boy have things changed
• Justin Verlander helps confirm Ecksteins claims that he's back with a dominant 11K in 7IP.
• Blue Jays have the best record in the AL by 2 games! Are Scutaro/Hill this years Kinsler/Young? I think not. Not Jewish enough fo shizzle. Travis Snyder is down to .229 so no 50 homers for him *cough eckstein cough*
• I never bought into the Braves '09 champaign. Was Javier Vasquez cluttchiness suppose to take them over the top? Especially with Jeff Francoeur(i call him frenchy) hitting clean-up. Side note, Michael Bourn is OPSing .822 which i think he keeps up, kinda maybe
  
• Most the games on the East coast got rained out, which shouldnt be confused with the pirates who simply didnt show up to play as Cueto goes 8 shutout with 9K.
• Carl Crawford ties a major league record with 6 steals in a game, which i'm surprised someone like Ty Cobb never stole more. This coming after Dexter Fowler stole 5 bases in the first 4 innings of a game last week.
  
• Brad Penny is still throwing 93mph on the fastball like always, but his era is still in the sevens. David Ortiz still looking for his first homer in almost 100AB.
• Dave Bush was throwing a 2 hitter through 5IP until he went Dave Bush and gave up 3 homers in the 7th. Thats gonna hurt the FIP. Brew-crew scratch out a one run win.
• Scott Baker was perfect through 6IP until he went Dave Bush and didnt retire any of the next 6 batters giving up 5 runs and the win to the Royals. Oh, Joe Mauer is hitting .700
  
• Carlos Zambrano pinch hit 3 straight game, what would you rather have aaron miles? Today he strains a hammy beating out a bunt single that let to a Derrek Lee grand slam. He has definitely changed his stance as he is more open and puts all his weight on the back knee. How do i know this? He has 0 double plays in 91 at-bats. Slightly less than the 27 he had last year. GB/FB is down to .74 this year form 1.33 last year. Fuck Yeah!
• Barry Zito has only allowed 3 runs over his last 20IP. Giants win a slug fest 1-0 in 10 innings, in fact they are last in team runs with just 81. Somehow Pablo Sandoval's fat ass stole a base...his second
  
• Mariners use 8 pitchers to win a 15 inning game. If Bobby Crosby wants to get traded, he should probably hit above the Mendoza line, which he isnt
• The Dodgers are 10-0 at home as Chad Billingsly matches Zack Greinke with his 5th win
• Scotty Pods is back! 2005 all over again! Where's Cliff Polite, Timo Perez, Pablo Ozuma?
  
• Ian Kinsler hits his 3rd lead-off homer this year. Jew-power activate! Seriously, get rid of the Jew-Fro. You're gonna start a streotype or something

Like Jim Rome, I'm Out!

Hitting from the back (stop) side

One of the most intriguing positions in fantasy baseball to me is catcher. Inevitably, every year, it is not very deep and never a position where one can expect too much fantasy value. This year, I tried to target more known entities at catcher as opposed to trying to find the next big up-and-comer, which I always fail at doing. In one of my leagues, I drafted Joe Mauer, who thankfully recently came off the DL to success. This is fantastic news for me, especially considering in that league I had been relying on John Buck at catcher at one point.

In my other two leagues in which I am sole manager, I have Russell Martin as my catcher. When I drafted him, I expected decent production out of him. I was expecting from him relative success and hoping for a repeat of his 2007 campaign, in which he had 87 runs, 19 home runs, 87 RBIs, 21 steals, a .293 average, .374 on base percentage and .469 slugging percentage. To note, I looked at the stats based on the categories in the fantasy leagues.
Even last year, Martin had a solid year for a catcher. Here is his line for 2008: 87 R, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 18 SB, .280 AVG, .385 OBP, .396 SLG

Prior to this season, Fangraphs projected more of the same from Martin, with his stats expected to fall in line between his 2007 and 2008 campaigns.If you have been paying attention to Martin this year as I have, you know he has not been performing to his credentials or expectations at all. At this point in the season, he has a .224 average, a .320 on base percentage and a measly .271 slugging percentage. As you can imagine, I have been severely disappointed by Martin thus far this season. I put perhaps too much of an onus on getting a top tier catcher, except Martin has been giving me bottom tier results. So what is up with the Canadian backstop? Is this a sign of things to come or merely a temporarily lull before he breaks out and starts hitting again?

I decided to look at some other stats besides the ones measured in my fantasy leagues to determine the culprit. This year, he has been striking out a walloping 24.7 percent of the time. Shocking especially considering his K rate fell from 16.5% in 2007 to 15% last year. His walk percentage is an acceptable 11.5%, in the same area as his 11% BB percentage in 2007 but below last year’s 14% walk percentage.

Here is a few more stats to consider:
2007: .368 wOBA, .322 BABIP, .176 ISO
2008: .351 wOBA, .311 BABIP, .116 ISO

Certainly, I expected a slight decline in Martin’s numbers this year over his performances in years past. What I was not expecting what his 2009 output thus far.2009: .273 wOBA, .297 BABIP, .047 ISO

Really, when you take a close look at his numbers from past years and at possible trends, you can expect a very slight drop in most of his numbers, with an expected rise in his walk percentage, leading to a rise in his on base percentage. By most indicators, he should be doing much better than he has been doing.

If this is the case, then why has he been making eating fantasy turd sandwiches thus far this season? To be honest, I am not exactly sure. In 2007 and 2008, he had over 80 at bats in April. This past April, he had 78 at bats. Did the World Baseball Classic add an unnecessary amount of wear and tear on Martin, especially considering the catcher position is one of the more physically demanding fielding spots? At this point, that is my best guess, but it is too early to tell for sure. His past numbers and predicted trends make his 2009 performance thus far look more like an abnormal cold streak than a sign of things to come. Either way, if I hope to be competitive in those fantasy leagues later on in the season, I hope he starts improving his stats to be more line with what he has already shown he can do. I am not sure I am stomach a .224 average and a.271 slugging percentage out of one of my daily offensive starters for too much longer.

Even ESPN sometimes has quality writing

As I have already mentioned, I still get most of my sports news from ESPN. While I will read some of their general news stories in addition to it being the site where I look at box scores, ESPN.com has two of my favorite writers. There are two writers on the site who if I see that they have written something new, I will put aside whatever I had planned on doing and read their column. The first writer has already been mentioned a few times on this site, and that’s Bill Simmons. In my journalism classes, most of the other males want to be sports writers and almost all of them love Bill Simmons. There’s something about Simmons that strikes an incredible chord with our generation, as older readers do not seem to have the same appreciation for his writing as younger readers do. As some other point, I might write a longer piece about why I like Simmons as a sports writer so much.>The Sports Guy is an obvious choice. Can you guess who my other favorite ESPN writer is? It’s Gregg Easterbrook, the writer of the Tuesday Morning Quarterback pro football column. My favorite thing about Easterbrook is that he treats the reader not only like an intelligent football fan but like an intelligent human being as well. He provides thoughtful, in-depth analysis of the NFL. If I want thoughtful insight on trends and strategies in the NFL, I look to Easterbrook. Plus, I really enjoy that his columns discuss other topics besides football. I don’t know about y’all, but I have a wider variety of interests outside of sports. Easterbrook understands this about fans and caters to this by providing thoughtful insight on pertinent topics such as politics and economics. His columns tend to be super lengthy, but I enjoy popping on my headphones and taking a leisurely time digesting his columns. Just recently, Easterbrook wrote an excellent piece about Jack Kemp that you can read it here. I somehow doubt that Easterbrook’s writing style appeals to y’all, but if you don’t read him already, I suggest at least taking a peek at his work. I think he is a fantastic and thoughtful writer who provides well-researched and insightful knowledge on football and a host of other topics. If you like football like I do, I highly recommend his TMQ columns.

Scot Boras the Magician

How does Oliver Perez have a freakin job!? I have never met a single person who thought Perez was a good pitcher, a serviceable pitcher, a spot starter. No, he's worse than that. As i have uttered previously, this is news to absolutely no one, except Omar Minaya. After one amazing year, cy young worthy year with the pirates back in 2004, he has been garbage. Coming off a season with a 4.7 FIP, 1.4 WHIP, Scot Boras worked his magic and convinced Omar Minaya could not sleep at night without Oliver Perez in the Mets rotation. This resulted in the Mets shelling out 36MM over 3 years in a highly depressed economy.

I wonder who the Mets were bidding against exactly. I'm sure there was no one who would pay that money, or even half that money, to a pitcher who's sole skill is being a lefty who throws hard. Let me correct myself, used to throw hard. His average fastball had dipped from a high of 93mph back in 2004, all the way down to 89mph this season. After a dismal start including 7 BB/9 and a 2 WHIP, former white sox manager gave Oliver the ultimate word of confidence by stating he has one start to redeem himself before getting demoted. Today, Oliver Perez lasted a whopping 2.1 innings, allowing 5 hits, 4 runs, and 6 free passes. Though he did strike out 2! Is it too early to discuss a contract extension?

GOI Is Tweeting

I think I'm the last to know anything. Case in point, I didn't know what Twitter was until about two weeks ago. And that's only because I was forced to listen to the Jim Rome show where he went on and on about the pros and cons of professional athletes "tweeting". When I asked people what it was, they told me it was essentially just Facebook Statuses on a single. This is the dumbest thing in the world. But over these past few weeks I've been hearing more and more about the sports world and tweeting (again another stupid concept and name). And in the car today I was listening to Bill Simmons podcast (not his best because he was talking with Cory Jacoby, don't know who that is, about the Real World Road Rules challenge, a show I don't watch) Anyway, he said he got recently got a Twitter account. I figure then 1) I should get a Twitter account if people like Bill Simmons are getting one and 2) I can now follow Bill Simmons and other people I like on Twitter.

I figure with the growing sports culture tweeting now I should hop on the tail end on this silly bandwagon and see where I'm headed. So now all you GOI fan can go to twitter.com/gameofinches and read up on on our funny thoughts. Because I guess since reading a blog is too much reading for you, you can now read just singular lines by us.

SIDENOTE: I personally created this account. So I don't know how the other, I guess now, four contributors can tweet. I mean I guess I can personally give you access to my Twitter account (It's extremely generic and not personal whatsoever) but if there's another way... But anyway, we should all tweet and hear Bill Simmons and other tweet! I guess.

Dick Wood

I always find it strange when I realize one of my favorite baseball players first name, isnt really his first name. How shocked were you when you realized Chipper Jones was actually Larry Jones. Or Ken Griffey Jr was actually George Griffey Jr. Just doesnt have the same zing to it. Well today i came across Angels prospect brandon wood. Most known for hitting 43 homers in the minors as a 20 year old short-stop. He will probably never be a regular major leaguer, given his K rate, and inability to actually play shortstop, or any position for that matter. Apparently his given first name is actually Richard Wood. I can see why he would change it. A man can only take so many Dick Wood jokes before he snaps and goes on an LSD binge

The Texas Rangers WANT To Suck

Is anyone else watching the White Sox-Rangers game? Why the fuck is the defensively giftendAndruw Jones, whose UZR/150 is 87.5, playing LEFT FUCKING FIELD, while Marlon Byrd, who is average defensively and features a -23 UZR/150 over the same number of innings in CF, misplays balls in center?

I guess the Rangers are content with conceding the AL West.

In Defense Of My Fantasy Strategy

First of all Journalissimo, when did you become a contributor, I thought we told you "NO!" Anyway, this seriously is a private matter; although via new technology like Twitter and Facebook America's personal privacy has declined, that doesn't mean it went the way of the DoDo bird. But since you have publicized it, I will retort.

1) Right now my Roto teams are currently both in third (although in the pay co-op league we've been first for a long time and it just so happens to unfortunately be 3rd at this exact moment), one of my head-to-head teams is in 2nd place and I won my last fantasy football league. Let's give me some props, establish my ethos if you will, that after a few years of this I've gotten the hang of it. And although this season's not even a month old, I don't think it's unfair to say that a strategy of mine is worth, at minimum, entertaining (and of course at maximum following).

2)Manny Parra sucks! I don't want any player on my team for the sole purpose of having them, Parra included. Although I believe in accumulating pitchers, I believe those pitchers still have to be quality. Guys who I drafted in the later rounds or whom I pick up in free agency all have to meet personal standards of quality. Every single starting pitcher on my team I believe will have a low WHIP and ERA. This must come first. And if for some reason they don't, they need to strike out a shit ton of guys. (Ideally getting a lot of wins helps too and/or if they don't get a lot of Ks they DO get a lot of W's, but that's so hard to predict that I just really stay away). I believe C.C., Jurrgins, W-Rod, Kazmir (although I'm skeptical lately), Liriano, and Slowey will all have low WHIP and low ERAs or have have proven to me that they can realistically do so. Brett Myers is the only exception- although currently he's our team's best K guy.

2) It's necessary. One of the team main benefits of this strategy is that we will more easily be able to accrue W and K. If all of our guys have low WHIPs and ERAs like I predict, then the other to stats are just icing on the cake. And not only that, but there are other teams that have better pitching than us (like David "MVP" Eckstein's team- seriously guys, why are you still trading with him, he's gotten the better end of like the 10 million trades he's made already!). If we want to compete with better teams, then we NEED all the help we can get. And this also gives our team the advantage over the few teams that have absolutely no pitching depth

3) This is a Zero Sum Game. If I were the only owner to have this strategy, then yes maybe I could be blamed for causing inflation. But I am not. If I don't get a lot of pitchers, someone else will. I believe this is an effective strategy so if someone else implements it (which they will), our team will be hurt in some way. This will cause "overvaluing" as you say. But just because I partake in this strategy doesn't mean I am to blame.

4) Who says we can't have awesome hitting all year? This is an assumption you make and I don't think it's necessarily true. I think I drafted extremely well and I think, and I know you agree, it's pretty stacked. In fact right now we're first in R and SB and t-2nd in HRs. I think this offense can consistently produce all year. And if for some reason one player gets injured, we can always ride the wave of someone who's hot and sitting in waivers in the short term. You claim "A suitable replacement might not always be available on the waivers, but perhaps on the bench." "Perhaps"? Perhaps our bench sucks. Perhaps, there IS someone good via waivers. Perhaps DaMonkeys will win that pay league. Perhaps a lot of things COULD happen. But I can almost assure that at least ONE good player will be available via waiver for us.


5) How can you say for sure when a player is in or out of a streak? Recently, I got fed up with Chris Iannetta. The day I benched him he hit a HR with 2 RBI and 2 R and went like 2-4. In the short term, it was a terrible idea to bench him. But who says in the long term our replacement (Suzuki) won't be better? Maybe Iannetta will slump some more or maybe he just got out of it. The point is you can never really say for sure when a player is in or out of a slump. You can never tell if a player will continue his hitting streak or if the next day he goes into one of his flows. In fact, because it's a roto league, we can handle players that go streaky for a bit. We are projecting how a player will perform over the course of an entire 162 game season. If I project a player to hit .300, I can deal with him hitting .100 for a week or so but I can say with confidence he'll rebound. Obviously at some point if a player you think is going too many ABs while slumping you have to bench him- which is what I did with Iannetta. But I'm not going to bench Cristain Guzman when he goes like 6-50 one week-- in fact I know we will do this soon because no way in hell he's going to manage a .400+ BA. In fact, you are the one that will hurt the team long term if you have batting depth that will sub in when a player just because he had a bad few games. Because of the uncertainty of streaks, I will say you are more prone to potentially hurting the team that way.

I believe all players on the team are very good and will positively produce. Which means all the offensive starters will produce and so will every single pitcher I have. So why waste batting on the bench? Even though if I have them on my team so I believe they are good, they do nothing to help my overall team

Bill Simmons

It's a shame that I have not expressed my love for Jim Rome enough on this blog. Dont worry, that will change soon. But in the past year, Bill Simmons has become my new Jim Rome. I will simply refer to them as 1 and 1a. Anyway, Simmons is a huge boston fan, so you know he has an opinion on bulls-celtics series and he wrote a tremendous piece following the amazing 3OT game 6. This is what makes Simmons different from all other writers. He talks to you as a friend as opposed to a reporter. You feel like you are watching the same game, experiencing the same emotions. So enjoy!

Do You Believe In Justin Verlander?

My name is David "MVP" Eckstein, and I'm a Verlandaholic. Before I really paid attention to sabermetrics, I used to draft Verlander high. I've been clean for about a year now, but I'm tempted to relapse. Help me.

In 2006, I touted him as being second to only Lirano among new pitchers. His consistently high 90s fastball and mid 70s curveball were a recipe for nasty domination. The result of his stuff was some quality strikeouts, average control and slight groundball tendencies. Since his debut, however, Verlander's walk rate has increased, his worm burning tendencies have declined and his fastball slowly, but steadily lost 2.5 MPH in velocity. Entering this season, Verlander's FIP has only been below 4.00 once -- in 2007, his breakout year, when it was 3.99 -- in his entire career. Despite playing in front of a laughably poor defense, Verlander consistently outperformed his FIP from 2006-2007. Realizing this, I avoided him in 2008 -- and was rewarded for my abstinence. Verlander posted a 4.84 ERA over 201+ IP, his K rate slipped a full K lower than it was in 2007 and a career low in WHIP (1.4).

But all was not as terrible as one would think. In 2008, Verlander's peripherals -- GB/FB rate aside -- all increased over his 2006 levels. Verlander's K rate was a full strikeout per nine higher than his 2006 level and his home run per nine rate has falled from 1.02 per nine to .89 per nine to .81 per nine. Even though Verlander was giving up less groundballs, he was increasing his infield fly ball rate by a large margin (it almost doubled). The result of Verlander's 2008 campaign was his second best career FIP -- 4.18, a full 2/3 of a run lower than his ERA.

This season, Verlander's fastball velocity is back to its 2005/2006 level (95.3 MPH) and his strikeout rate is back up (above) his 2007 level. While I wouldn't expect Verlander to continue to strike out 10+ guys per nine, he's shown that he has the stuff to sustainably strikeout somewhere between 8 and 9 per nine over the course of a 200+ inning season. Verlander's GB/FB is also down, but his pitch selection remains largely unchanged from the past two seasons, so even with some downturn, it's unlikely that it was sustainably have halved over the course of one season. Furthermore, most of the groundballs Verlander used to give up have been converted into infield fly balls (up 5% over last season). His HR/9 is a bit higher than last season -- but still below league average -- but that may be the result of his first outing, in which he gave up a gopher ball that knocked him out of the game before the end of the 4th inning.

Verlander's Walk Rate currently sits at 2.9 walks per nine, slightly below his career average, but right in line with his 2006-2007 numbers. Verlander has only once (last season) walked more than 3 per nine in his career. To expect a persistent 33% regression in one's control is rare (well, tell that to Rick Ankiel, Rich Hill, Daniel Cabrera...). From 2005 to 2007, Verlander's control (K/BB) increased from 1.4 to 2.07 to 2.73. And though his control regressed a bit in 2008 (to 1.87), it currently sits at a robust 3.78. I wouldn't expect a 3+ K/BB to persists, but a mid 2's -- somwhere between his 2006 and 2007 levels -- is very reasonable.

Justin Verlander currently stands as the most unfortunate pitcher in baseball. His FIP-ERA splits are the worst in the league (his FIP is 3.22, his ERA is 6.75) thanks to a .408 BABIP (Verlander's career BABIP is .303) and 50.3 LOB% (league average is 72%). He's also only 25 years old, so making gains in his control and ability at this point in his career is quite reasonable. PECTOA issued Verlander a 27% breakout rate and 60% improve rate this season, matched against 11% attrition and 11% collapse rate.

Taking note of all of this, I think I'm ready to drink the Verlander juice and buy low. Are you?