Jim Thome made the decision to leave to the Dodgers," Guillen said initially about the August 2009 deal. "He made that decision to himself, all right.Though Ozzie Guillen has sarcastically accepted the blame for the Thome non-signing, he and G.M. Kenny Williams owe a genuine apology to White Sox fans. Here is why.
The White Sox, after tonight's win against Cleveland, sit four games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central Standings. Jim Thome, who makes a measly $1.5 million this season, has accrued +2.4 WAR for the Twins while Mark Kotsay, who has the exact same salary as Thome this season, has produced -0.6 WAR for the White Sox.
In a vacuum, a re-signing of Thome by the White Sox would give the South Siders a +3.0 WAR swing in the AL Central Standings. Note, however, that Thome has only accrued 279 PA this season while splitting DH duties with Jason Kubel. Of course, Thome's been platooned, which may exaggerate his bottom line, but any potential non-platoon "regression" would surely be offset by the additional playing time he would have seen with the White Sox. Let's just leave the WAR at +2.4 and call it even.
The White Sox do not play in a vacuum, however. Thome, in not re-signing with the White Sox, signed a deal with the Twins. Hence, in a Thome-on-the-Sox-over-Kotsay theoretical situation, you have to not only add +3.0 WAR to the White Sox 2010 win total, but also subtract 2.4 WAR from the Twins' 2010 win total. That turns a 4.0 game lead by the Twins in the AL Central into a 1.5 game lead by the White Sox.
Still think it is OK to be sarcastic, Ozzie? It gets worse.
Not only are the White Sox sitting 4.0 games behind the Twins in the AL Central standings, but they have found themselves ultimately in need of a hitting DH (turns out burning Mark Kotsay's bat was not enough of a move at the July trade deadline. Maybe the White Sox should have tried burning Kotsay's contract (and Mark Teahen's, while they were at it) instead).
Unable to procure either Adam Dunn or Lance Berkman, the White Sox claimed Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers in exchange for salary relief. Without question, the Manny move is an upgrade for the White Sox. Whereas Manny is projected by ZiPS to hit .290/.398/.533 (.399 wOBA) for the rest of the season, Kotsay was only pegged to hit .244/.313/.384 (.305 wOBA) down the stretch. Dave Cameron sees this difference as worth around +1.0 WAR for the White Sox. Unfortunately for the White Sox, however, they are four games behind the Twins (thus, they have three more wins to make up somehow) and Thome has a wOBA of .413 on the season (with a projected wOBA of .370 down the stretch).
Per MLB Trade Rumors, 31 games of "salary relief" means $3.8 million. That figure is more than 2.5 times what Thome will make all season and almost $1 million more than Kotsay and Thome's salaries combined.
Then, of course, you need to consider that Manny is Manny and you never know quite what you are going to get with him. He might try and get pregnant again or invoke his alleged "do not play" clause during day games. In another chapter in the "Manny Being Manny" saga, Manny took the early flight to Cleveland from L.A. this morning and was at Progressive Field in time to play ball, but did not in the White Sox starting lineup. Manny told reporters that he felt like he was 25 again, but he could not play because, as TBO speculates, he woke up to early that day. Ozzie Guillen's comments after the game seem to confirm this speculation.
To summarize, the White Sox are not in first place this year because they decided that subpar offensive production from the DH position was acceptable so long as they could rest Alex Rios' and Juan Pierre's knees every so often and find a way to work Mark Kotsay's mighty bat into the lineup. Had the White Sox just not give Kotsay a bat to burn to begin with, the Sox would be at least a half game closer in the AL Central Standings. Because the White Sox gave Kotsay said bat, they are now paying 2.5 times the money it would have cost them to keep Thome all season for just 31 games (scratch that, 30 games, as Manny did not play Tuesday) of Mannywood. Talk about "fail."
I wonder if the White Sox will sell re-branded Manny dreadlock caps left over from his time in L.A.