Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here.
Defensive End
Starters: Julius Peppers (CHI), Justin Tuck (NYG)
Bench: Chris Clemons (SEA)
Apologies to: Kyle Vanden Bosch (DET), Osi Umenyiora (NYG), John Abraham (ATL)
In the NFC, the leaders right now according to FO in hurries is: Chris Long (STL), DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Charles Johnson (CAR), Julius Peppers, and then Chris Clemons. Besides Ware who's a linebacker, only Peppers and Clemons are top 4 in the NFC in either sacks or WPA as well so that's why I say they go to the Pro Bowl and Justin Tuck is the only guy who's both top 4 in WPA and sacks.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Nddamukong Suh (DET), Justin Smith (SF)
Bench: Darnell Docket (ARI)
Donkey Kong Suh has nine sacks. As a defensive tackle. That's just amazing. To put that in perspective, in Albert Haynesworth's best year, he only had 8.5 sacks. And he was in the league for 7 years before he did that. Smith was named the alternate and i think he deserves to start. Especially over the overrated Jay Ratliff (DAL) who only went because he plays in Dallas. I chose Docket as the alternate because he leads the league in WPA.
Linebackers
Starters: DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Brian Urlacher (CHI), Clay Matthews (GB)
Bench: Chad Greenway (MIN), Patrick Willis (SF)
Apologies to: Brian Orakpo (WAS)
I think I need no justification for my starters, just watch them play and they do everything they're asked to do and then some. Chad Greenway leads the NFC in tackles and is second in the NFC in tackles for loss (according to when I compiled my stats). The only difference between my selections and the Pro Bowl selections is that I took Greenway over Lance Briggs (CHI). As much as I love my Bears, Briggs had a pretty bad second half of the season and did not deserve to go.
Safeties
Starters: Earl Thomas (SEA), LaRon Landry (WAS)
Bench: Kerry Rhodes (ARI)
If you can give me a definite, clear cut way how to judge safeties and disagree with my selections, please let me know and I'll be glad to change my results. Otherwise I will base my selections upon interceptions and WPA.
Cornerbacks
Starters: Asante Samuel (PHI), Aquib Talib (TAM)
Bench: Charles Woodson (GB)
Total Number of Selections According To Me:
- Arizona Cardinals (4)
- Atlanta Falcons (4)
- Carolina Panthers (0)
- Chicago Bears (4)
- Dallas Cowboys (3)
- Detroit Lions (2)
- Green Bay Packers (5)
- Minnesota Vikings (3)
- New Orleans Saints (2)
- New York Giants (3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (3)
- San Fransisco 49ers (4)
- Seattle Seahawks (2)
- St. Louis Rams (1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)
- Washington Redskins (1)
DME's Top 20 Beers
Yes, yes, this is a sports blog, but in addition to baseball, I do enjoy a few other things in life. Shocking, right? I know. For example, as an ex-film critic, it might be obvious that I love films. One of those loves, made possible via my brief tenure as a Binny's Beverage Depot employee and routine exposure to new brews, is beer (which I also periodically (and poorly) brew in my spare time). For new years eve, I made sure to purchase a few of my favorite bombers and in deciding what to drink, I made a list of what I would like to have most if available for purchase at the local liquor selling establishment. Rather than throw this used napkin carefully crafted list away, I present it to you thusly (though keep in mind, that I only rank what I have drank, that I hate Borbon/Whiskey flavors, and that I am not a real beer connoisseur, even if I periodically hold myself out as one):
- Kentucky Breakfast Stout. Thick, heavy, complex. A brilliant mix of Vanilla, Oak, Tobacco, Chocolate and Coffee hides the alcohol well, and creating nothing but smooth flavor and only a taste of bitterness. This beer is very hard to find, and only comes out once a year. Equally tasty is the regular Breakfast Stout, which tends to be easier to find, though it is also a once-a-year brew.
- Old Rasputin Russian Imperial Stout. The Old Rasputin XII, a one-time brew, is infinitely better, but infinitely more expensive (and hard to find).
- Three Floyds Alpha King Pale Ale. Simply delicious, this brilliant year-round pale ale is perfectly bitter.
- Wild Little Sumpin'. This stuff is ridiculously drinkable for an 8.5% ABV beer. It's a limited brew, but I am stocked up. After I run out, I'll have to regulate myself to the regular Little Sumpin'.
- Three Floyds Dreadnaught IPA. A malty hop bomb of the highest order. A must drink for imperial IPA lovers everywhere, though it's hardly cheap...
- Great Divide Oak Aged Yeti Imperial Stout. Like Dreadnaught, this beer is a bit pricey ($10-15 dollars a bomber), but well worth the cost. This Russian imperial stout has a smooth/subtle coffee flavor to complement the dark chocolate/roasted malts flavor and the finish is to die for.
- Southern Tier Unearthly Imperial IPA. An aggressive hop bomb that always hits the right spot. Not for those who hate bitter flavors.
- Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout. The guy who brews this stuff wrote my favorite beer book of all-time, the only beer book I have ever read, The Brewmaster's Table.
- Goose Island Imperial IPA. One of my favorite beers by one of my favorite breweries.
- Great Lakes Glockenspiel Weizenbock. This full of alcohol, wheat flavor and some bitterness, but is smooth to the taste. Incredibly drinkable.
- Three Floyds Gumballhead. My favorite wheat ale. Refreshing, with a perfectly bitter bite.
- Unibroue La Fin Du Monde. Can only be described as banana bread beer. It always hits the spot.
- Port Brewing Co.'s Santa's Little Helper. This drink is ridiculously delicious and drinkably boozy, with a huge malty nose. This beer captures the perfect blend of dark fruit and chocolate flavors with a roasted malts balance. The after taste is to die for.
- Sam Adams Dopple Bock. I can't particularly explain why, but this beer is brilliant. It is even better slightly warm.
- Sierra Nevada 30th Anniversary. I just had this beer for the first time earlier this week, but it impressed me enough that I was sipping on it exclusively for the evening. This is a darn good dark-chocolate-fused-with-coffee-flavored beer.
- Founders' Devil Dancer Imperial IPA. This beer is as bitter and alcoholic as they get. Not for the casual beer drinker.
- Goose Island IPA. A staple and a classic. My six-pack of choice when I can't decide.
- Three Floyds Robert The Bruce. Normally, I hate scotch ales. But this is the exception to the rule.
- Unibroue Éphémère (Apple). I am probably the only person on this planet that truly enjoys this beer. It is what weened me off of Miller Lite and my college-beer days.
- Dogfish Head 90 minute IPA. Infinitely better than both the 60 minute and 120 minute IPAs.
- Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. A perfect blend of citrus aroma and hoppy flavor. It is my "oh you have this at your bar?" staple when all else fails and the second best beer on tap is Guinness or Fat Tire, which is like 50% of the time.
- Sierra Nevada Kellerweis Hefeweizen. A sweet beer with a crisp, refreshing banana and bread flavor.
- Goose Island 312. Ol' Reliable. This is what you drink at a bar, when you have no clue what anything else in bottle at a bar tastes like or when a bar only otherwise has miller/coors/bud on tap.
VH1 Hip Hop Honors
It is safe to say I was not impressed by Sexy Rexy's latest post about the top 10 singles of the year. Mainly because anything other than rap sounds like a garbage disposal to me, and partly because i think Jay-Z ripped off Nas' "NY State of Mind" with "Empire State of Mind". I recently watched the annual VH1 Hip Hop Honors show, where this year they honored men who revolutionized hip hop in different regions of the country. Examples include Timbaland from Virginia Beach, Jermaine Dupri from Hotlanta, and Master P from New Orleans. The show as a whole was entertaining, but two performances stood out from the pack.
1) This was the honorary performance for record producer J. Prince featuring The Game, Juvenile (who tore up the place), and Drake (who is starting to grow on me)
2) The second performance was the Jermaine Dupri honorary performance featuring Dupri, Lil Bow Wow (who is still little), Dem Franchize Boyz, Lil Jon, and P. Diddy (who I'm pretty sure was the only rapper lip singing, cause he's too rich to actually do his own singing)
The Best Singles Of 2010
DME, please take a deep breath and wait like a few hours before you write your angry, hatred filled response to why this list is bad.
Unlike movies, this year was a particularly strong year for music. While I am still generally discouraged at the direction that hip hop and rock music is going (hip hop for going towards pop and away from artistry and rock for the direction its been going for the past ten years towards this indie/techno/80's influenced crap) I have been pleasantly surprised at the many singles that have been released this year- especially from hip hop artists. Jay-Z still rules the charts, Eminem revived his former glory after two albums and many years of garbage, and new comers like B.o.B. actually bringing emotion and story telling back to hip hop. I of course am biased (I mean I just admitted to not liking modern rock music) and no list about music will ever be objective. I know DME, a big indie music guy, is already fuming mad by this point and I haven't even listed a single song. But here's my top ten list of 2010.
10) Florence + The Machine "Dog Days Are Over"
I really don't know why I like this song. I think part of it has to do with the original and creative music behind it. Part of it has to do with the catchy clapping behind it. Part of it has to do with the fact that I love Florence's amazing vocals. I have never really taken the time to actually listen to words behind it (in fact I could do that right now while typing this post, but I'm not going to) but I assume by the title of the song and the music that it's about getting over troubles in your life and that wonderful feeling you get when that happens. I imagine if a literal boulder was being taken off of my shoulders this is the song that would be playing when it gets lifted. But I think I mainly just like the song because I can't get it out of my head.
9) Kanye West "Power"
Kanye is an egotistical blow hard and his video for "Power" is nothing short of egotistical. For some reason it only uses the first verse and chorus of the great song but it's something out of a Renaissance painting that's both beautiful and awe-inspiring. But would you expect anything less out of a Kanye West song entitled "Power"?
Not just by DME, but many critics pan West's 2010 album My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy as West's best album and while I disagree, it still is great and I've seen it on most critics top 5 albums of the year. Hell, even a crappy site like Pitchfork named it its #1 album of 2010. So I'd be remissed if I didn't put a Kanye song on here.
"Power" is just another example of why Kanye West is a top 5, maybe even top 3, rapper of all time. It's got an inventive and creative beat and just classic Kanye, ground breaking lyrics. And it's for that reason that I put this song on my list.
8) La Roux "Bulletproof"
You can watch the original music video here
I've actually been working backwards so this is the 8th song I've talked about and not the third. So I'm making this short. What makes this song great is that it's straight out of the 80's. If you hopped in the DeLorean and played this song for Marty McFly, he would think this was the newest single being released on the radio. 80's music a huge guilty pleasure of mine and for many others and this song brings us back to that place where the keytar was king.
7) Eminem f/ Rihanna "Love The Way You Lie"
Eminem's Recovery album was the best selling album of the year and that was fueled by his single "Love The Way You Lie". Eminem is at his best when he's rapping about his personal problems. That's what made his first few albums so great. But then he became the biggest star in the world and soon he had no problems. That in turn created crappy albums like Relapse. But after Eminem took a few years off, he came back with what made him great.
It's no secret that Eminem has a problem with domestic abuse as shown in songs like "Kim" and with his multiple arrests. So when Em expressed his emotions and feelings about the tumultuous relationship that he's been struggling with, it makes for great music.
And then your hear the chorus by Rihanna, who herself is a victim of domestic abuse. When I first heard this song, I would have sworn it was an anti-abuse song. I mean, come on, it's Rihanna singing the hook! But when you listen to the actual lyrics, it's not at all anti-abuse. In fact, it's almost pro-abuse.
But yet the lyrics fit the lives of these two singers perfectly and this song would not be any good if it was anyone else singing or rapping. And for that, "Love The Way You Lie" earns a spot on this list.
6) Cage The Elephant "Ain't No Rest For The Wicked"
Anyone who knows me knows I'm a huge fan of Nirvana/90's rock and classic Rock like The Beatles and The Who. And I think that's part of the reason I love Cage The Elephant so much and its album of the same name. And while this single was released in early 2009, it and the band didn't start getting big until 2010.
My brother convinced me that music is becoming cyclical. We are now in a time where 80's influenced music is king. I mean, just look at a song like "Bulletproof". Most current musicians are young and many of them and the up and comers were born in the 80's and that's the type of music they grew up on. But now that kids in the 90's are soon becoming legal to drink, he believes that grunge and 90's style college rock/alternative will start being more prevalent because that's what new musicians and soon-to-be-musicians grew up on. And I think Cage The Elephant is the beginning of that movement.
"Ain't No Rest For The Wicked" has blues inspired riffs from Stevie Ray Vaughn with a mix of early Red Hot Chili Peppers rock with some The Who cynical-towards-the-world attitude yet with a style that's all the band's own. And it's for that I put this song on this list.
5) B.o.B. f/ Hayley Williams of Paramore and Eminem "Airplanes (Remix)"
You can watch the original music video here
While I never understood why someone would wish for an event to occur just so that event could then in turn create a wish (I mean, why not just wish for the thing you want instead?), you couldn't help but be moved by this song. Plus, you loved to put that chorus as your facebook status/ got sick that everyone and their mother used it as theirs.
What's great about this song is that it's not a rapper trying to make a club hit, it's a rapper trying to explain what's happening in his life. Like what T.I. did in Paper Trails, B.o.B. is doing in "Airplanes". And the reason I chose the remixed version with Eminem over the original, is because I feel the true meaning of the song gets lost with B.o.B.'s original lyrics and the original song. The purpose of the song is to reflect upon how bad his life was and to realize how great he's had it now and to try and capture that feeling of despair he used to have. B.o.B. is telling the listener to keep your chin up because things will get better.
But when I listened to the original lyrics, all that came across was B.o.B. being whiny. He had a hit song and hit record so I was confused why he was bringing up all this stuff in his past. The original lyrics made it sound like he was sick of the fame and fortune and he wanted to go back to his shitty life. And if that's what he was trying to bring across (which I doubt) well then that turns an uplifting, inspiring song into just a whiny, pretentious radio hit.
But with Eminem adding the third and final verse and B.o.B. changing up his lyrics, his message becomes clearer and it's that great message with a great and powerful hook that made this song so great in 2010.
4) Mumford and Sons "Little Lion Man"
The first time I heard this song I was hooked. I loved the simplicity of it and a simple video to go along with it. Love is universal and you can never go wrong singing about it. We as guys have fucked up relationships and it's a crappy feeling. And while this concept is nowhere close to being an original concept in music, it's still done beautifully by Mumford and Sons.
The folksy guitar riff that starts off the song just sets the tone for the four plus minutes that follow it. It's great to hear musicianship being brought back. And the "Don't Fear The Reaper"-esque break down right after the second chorus is a great manifestation of that feeling of despair you have after you realized you fucked up the relationship.
It's a catchy song with great heart, great music, and a universal message and that makes this song so great and earns a spot on this list.
3) Lady Antebellum "Need You Now"
While I generally disrespect and hate country music as a whole, I give it its props when its props are due. Plus, if this song was performed the exact same way but by like Miley Cyrus, no one would call this a country song. This is a pop song.
Everyone has had a late night booty call. We've all gotten drunk and called/ hoped that your lover would come by your side at the end of the night. It's a crappy feeling when you're horny yet come home at night and there's no one there by your side. And never has that feeling come across so beautifully as when Lady Antebellum sings it.
This song is not in the least bit sleezy as you would think. It's about loneliness more than anything. That feeling that you want somebody there with you which just happens to get amplified by the few alcoholic beverages you've had.
Plus, how many times have you texted/ put as your facebook status "It's a quarter after one, I'm a little drunk, and I need you now"
For capturing that feeling that everyone has had, "Need You Now" earns a spot on this list.
2) Janelle Monae f/ B.o.B. and Lupe Fiasco "Tightrope (Wondamix Remix)"
You can watch the remixed music video here
I know a lot of people like the original version featuring Monae's founder Big Boi from Outkast better but I'm in love with the remix. The great part about Monae is that she's helping to bring soul and 60's R&B back to music. If the original had just come up on your iPod you would swear you were hearing a great classic coming out of Motown.
But the remix made the song better. It added a great guitar riff on top of the beat that helps to modernize it yet still get its soul (pun intended) in tact. And not only that, it made me a B.o.B. fan. I know it's Janelle Monae's song and her third rap verse at the end is really good (and I'll take it over a shitty Nicki Minaj verse any day of the week) but it's B.o.B.'s opening verse that I feel truly makes the song.
Monae's and B.o.B.'s clever rhymes (and Lupe's unnecessarily short but good verse) along with a great beat that still makes me dance and I haven't gotten tired of listening to it after four straight months makes this my #2 song of 2010.
1) Jay-Z f/ Alicia Keys "Empire State of Mind"
While technically this song was released in 2009, this song was by far and away THE song of 2010. Plus, Vh1 put this song in their top 15 videos of 2010 so I feel confident putting "Empire State of Mind" on my list.
I personally feel the best hip hop songs are the ones that are either extremely personal to the artist (i.e. "Dead and Gone" by T.I.), something that conveys universal messages (i.e. "The Crossroads" by Bone Thugs-N-Harmony), or something reflecting upon the state of hip hop or Black culture (i.e. "Changes" by Tupac). Empire State of Mind falls into neither of these categories. Yet it's still awesome.
In fact, part of the reason the song is so awesome is because it's so different. Its still got great Jay-Z lyrics and flow like MDMA got you feeling like a champion/The city never sleeps, better slip you an Ambien. I also kind of lied. This song is personal to Jay-Z and is sort if universal to millions of people who live in New York/love the city. It's number two (behind Chicago) as the greatest city in the world (that I've been to). Jay-Z is still so original and is still able to produce fresh lyrics and concepts.
Plus, this song has a great beat. As a buddy of mine once texted to me "Fuck Jay-Z for making a catchy ass song." It's true that "Empire" has a great hook by the talented Alicia Keys and a catchy beat. Now, if it just had a catchy beat but no depth to its lyrics, this song would be on my "hate" list. But alas, it's THE song of 2010.
But for being the song of the year, having a great beat, and awesome-as-always jay-Z lyrics, "Empire State of Mind" earns the top spot as the best song of 2010.
11) Chris Brown "Dueces"
I always love it when personal despair breeds great music
12) Muse "Resistance"
They're the great rock band of the past 10 years and the best "true" form of Rock we have nowadays
13) Cee Lo Green "Fuck You"
"She's an X-Box, and I'm an Atari" We've all had that one love who thinks she's better than us.
14) The Black Keys "Tighten Up"
A great music video to go along with a great, classic sounding rock song
15) Sara Bareilles "King Of Anything"
A great light, poppy break up song from an extremely talented and sort-of-cute songwriter
Unlike movies, this year was a particularly strong year for music. While I am still generally discouraged at the direction that hip hop and rock music is going (hip hop for going towards pop and away from artistry and rock for the direction its been going for the past ten years towards this indie/techno/80's influenced crap) I have been pleasantly surprised at the many singles that have been released this year- especially from hip hop artists. Jay-Z still rules the charts, Eminem revived his former glory after two albums and many years of garbage, and new comers like B.o.B. actually bringing emotion and story telling back to hip hop. I of course am biased (I mean I just admitted to not liking modern rock music) and no list about music will ever be objective. I know DME, a big indie music guy, is already fuming mad by this point and I haven't even listed a single song. But here's my top ten list of 2010.
10) Florence + The Machine "Dog Days Are Over"
I really don't know why I like this song. I think part of it has to do with the original and creative music behind it. Part of it has to do with the catchy clapping behind it. Part of it has to do with the fact that I love Florence's amazing vocals. I have never really taken the time to actually listen to words behind it (in fact I could do that right now while typing this post, but I'm not going to) but I assume by the title of the song and the music that it's about getting over troubles in your life and that wonderful feeling you get when that happens. I imagine if a literal boulder was being taken off of my shoulders this is the song that would be playing when it gets lifted. But I think I mainly just like the song because I can't get it out of my head.
9) Kanye West "Power"
Kanye is an egotistical blow hard and his video for "Power" is nothing short of egotistical. For some reason it only uses the first verse and chorus of the great song but it's something out of a Renaissance painting that's both beautiful and awe-inspiring. But would you expect anything less out of a Kanye West song entitled "Power"?
Not just by DME, but many critics pan West's 2010 album My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy as West's best album and while I disagree, it still is great and I've seen it on most critics top 5 albums of the year. Hell, even a crappy site like Pitchfork named it its #1 album of 2010. So I'd be remissed if I didn't put a Kanye song on here.
"Power" is just another example of why Kanye West is a top 5, maybe even top 3, rapper of all time. It's got an inventive and creative beat and just classic Kanye, ground breaking lyrics. And it's for that reason that I put this song on my list.
8) La Roux "Bulletproof"
You can watch the original music video here
I've actually been working backwards so this is the 8th song I've talked about and not the third. So I'm making this short. What makes this song great is that it's straight out of the 80's. If you hopped in the DeLorean and played this song for Marty McFly, he would think this was the newest single being released on the radio. 80's music a huge guilty pleasure of mine and for many others and this song brings us back to that place where the keytar was king.
7) Eminem f/ Rihanna "Love The Way You Lie"
Eminem's Recovery album was the best selling album of the year and that was fueled by his single "Love The Way You Lie". Eminem is at his best when he's rapping about his personal problems. That's what made his first few albums so great. But then he became the biggest star in the world and soon he had no problems. That in turn created crappy albums like Relapse. But after Eminem took a few years off, he came back with what made him great.
It's no secret that Eminem has a problem with domestic abuse as shown in songs like "Kim" and with his multiple arrests. So when Em expressed his emotions and feelings about the tumultuous relationship that he's been struggling with, it makes for great music.
And then your hear the chorus by Rihanna, who herself is a victim of domestic abuse. When I first heard this song, I would have sworn it was an anti-abuse song. I mean, come on, it's Rihanna singing the hook! But when you listen to the actual lyrics, it's not at all anti-abuse. In fact, it's almost pro-abuse.
But yet the lyrics fit the lives of these two singers perfectly and this song would not be any good if it was anyone else singing or rapping. And for that, "Love The Way You Lie" earns a spot on this list.
6) Cage The Elephant "Ain't No Rest For The Wicked"
Anyone who knows me knows I'm a huge fan of Nirvana/90's rock and classic Rock like The Beatles and The Who. And I think that's part of the reason I love Cage The Elephant so much and its album of the same name. And while this single was released in early 2009, it and the band didn't start getting big until 2010.
My brother convinced me that music is becoming cyclical. We are now in a time where 80's influenced music is king. I mean, just look at a song like "Bulletproof". Most current musicians are young and many of them and the up and comers were born in the 80's and that's the type of music they grew up on. But now that kids in the 90's are soon becoming legal to drink, he believes that grunge and 90's style college rock/alternative will start being more prevalent because that's what new musicians and soon-to-be-musicians grew up on. And I think Cage The Elephant is the beginning of that movement.
"Ain't No Rest For The Wicked" has blues inspired riffs from Stevie Ray Vaughn with a mix of early Red Hot Chili Peppers rock with some The Who cynical-towards-the-world attitude yet with a style that's all the band's own. And it's for that I put this song on this list.
5) B.o.B. f/ Hayley Williams of Paramore and Eminem "Airplanes (Remix)"
You can watch the original music video here
While I never understood why someone would wish for an event to occur just so that event could then in turn create a wish (I mean, why not just wish for the thing you want instead?), you couldn't help but be moved by this song. Plus, you loved to put that chorus as your facebook status/ got sick that everyone and their mother used it as theirs.
What's great about this song is that it's not a rapper trying to make a club hit, it's a rapper trying to explain what's happening in his life. Like what T.I. did in Paper Trails, B.o.B. is doing in "Airplanes". And the reason I chose the remixed version with Eminem over the original, is because I feel the true meaning of the song gets lost with B.o.B.'s original lyrics and the original song. The purpose of the song is to reflect upon how bad his life was and to realize how great he's had it now and to try and capture that feeling of despair he used to have. B.o.B. is telling the listener to keep your chin up because things will get better.
But when I listened to the original lyrics, all that came across was B.o.B. being whiny. He had a hit song and hit record so I was confused why he was bringing up all this stuff in his past. The original lyrics made it sound like he was sick of the fame and fortune and he wanted to go back to his shitty life. And if that's what he was trying to bring across (which I doubt) well then that turns an uplifting, inspiring song into just a whiny, pretentious radio hit.
But with Eminem adding the third and final verse and B.o.B. changing up his lyrics, his message becomes clearer and it's that great message with a great and powerful hook that made this song so great in 2010.
4) Mumford and Sons "Little Lion Man"
The first time I heard this song I was hooked. I loved the simplicity of it and a simple video to go along with it. Love is universal and you can never go wrong singing about it. We as guys have fucked up relationships and it's a crappy feeling. And while this concept is nowhere close to being an original concept in music, it's still done beautifully by Mumford and Sons.
The folksy guitar riff that starts off the song just sets the tone for the four plus minutes that follow it. It's great to hear musicianship being brought back. And the "Don't Fear The Reaper"-esque break down right after the second chorus is a great manifestation of that feeling of despair you have after you realized you fucked up the relationship.
It's a catchy song with great heart, great music, and a universal message and that makes this song so great and earns a spot on this list.
3) Lady Antebellum "Need You Now"
While I generally disrespect and hate country music as a whole, I give it its props when its props are due. Plus, if this song was performed the exact same way but by like Miley Cyrus, no one would call this a country song. This is a pop song.
Everyone has had a late night booty call. We've all gotten drunk and called/ hoped that your lover would come by your side at the end of the night. It's a crappy feeling when you're horny yet come home at night and there's no one there by your side. And never has that feeling come across so beautifully as when Lady Antebellum sings it.
This song is not in the least bit sleezy as you would think. It's about loneliness more than anything. That feeling that you want somebody there with you which just happens to get amplified by the few alcoholic beverages you've had.
Plus, how many times have you texted/ put as your facebook status "It's a quarter after one, I'm a little drunk, and I need you now"
For capturing that feeling that everyone has had, "Need You Now" earns a spot on this list.
2) Janelle Monae f/ B.o.B. and Lupe Fiasco "Tightrope (Wondamix Remix)"
You can watch the remixed music video here
I know a lot of people like the original version featuring Monae's founder Big Boi from Outkast better but I'm in love with the remix. The great part about Monae is that she's helping to bring soul and 60's R&B back to music. If the original had just come up on your iPod you would swear you were hearing a great classic coming out of Motown.
But the remix made the song better. It added a great guitar riff on top of the beat that helps to modernize it yet still get its soul (pun intended) in tact. And not only that, it made me a B.o.B. fan. I know it's Janelle Monae's song and her third rap verse at the end is really good (and I'll take it over a shitty Nicki Minaj verse any day of the week) but it's B.o.B.'s opening verse that I feel truly makes the song.
Monae's and B.o.B.'s clever rhymes (and Lupe's unnecessarily short but good verse) along with a great beat that still makes me dance and I haven't gotten tired of listening to it after four straight months makes this my #2 song of 2010.
1) Jay-Z f/ Alicia Keys "Empire State of Mind"
While technically this song was released in 2009, this song was by far and away THE song of 2010. Plus, Vh1 put this song in their top 15 videos of 2010 so I feel confident putting "Empire State of Mind" on my list.
I personally feel the best hip hop songs are the ones that are either extremely personal to the artist (i.e. "Dead and Gone" by T.I.), something that conveys universal messages (i.e. "The Crossroads" by Bone Thugs-N-Harmony), or something reflecting upon the state of hip hop or Black culture (i.e. "Changes" by Tupac). Empire State of Mind falls into neither of these categories. Yet it's still awesome.
In fact, part of the reason the song is so awesome is because it's so different. Its still got great Jay-Z lyrics and flow like MDMA got you feeling like a champion/The city never sleeps, better slip you an Ambien. I also kind of lied. This song is personal to Jay-Z and is sort if universal to millions of people who live in New York/love the city. It's number two (behind Chicago) as the greatest city in the world (that I've been to). Jay-Z is still so original and is still able to produce fresh lyrics and concepts.
Plus, this song has a great beat. As a buddy of mine once texted to me "Fuck Jay-Z for making a catchy ass song." It's true that "Empire" has a great hook by the talented Alicia Keys and a catchy beat. Now, if it just had a catchy beat but no depth to its lyrics, this song would be on my "hate" list. But alas, it's THE song of 2010.
But for being the song of the year, having a great beat, and awesome-as-always jay-Z lyrics, "Empire State of Mind" earns the top spot as the best song of 2010.
11) Chris Brown "Dueces"
I always love it when personal despair breeds great music
12) Muse "Resistance"
They're the great rock band of the past 10 years and the best "true" form of Rock we have nowadays
13) Cee Lo Green "Fuck You"
"She's an X-Box, and I'm an Atari" We've all had that one love who thinks she's better than us.
14) The Black Keys "Tighten Up"
A great music video to go along with a great, classic sounding rock song
15) Sara Bareilles "King Of Anything"
A great light, poppy break up song from an extremely talented and sort-of-cute songwriter
Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VIII: Actual Players, AFC, Offense
Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here
Quarterback
Starter: Tom Brady (NE)
Bench: Philip Rivers (SD), Matt Cassel (KC)
Apologies to: Kyle Orton (DEN)
For some reason I thought Rivers has never been selected to a Pro Bowl and I was going to go off on a rant about that. But he's been selected to two before this year. The biggest travesty of the AFC is selecting Peyton Manning over Matt Cassel. Manning is guaranteed to go to the Hall of Fame, has four MVPs, and been to 10 Pro Bowls. When he has a bad year or a fringe year, god forbid we let someone deserving in instead of him.
Running Back
Starter: Arian Foster (HOU)
Bench: Jamaal Charles (KC), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE)
Apologies to: Darren McFadden (OAK), Peyton Hillis (CLE), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
The third spot for the AFC running back position was so hard for me. Foster and Chalres were locks for me, but choosing one out of the three "apologies to" and The Law Firm was tough and all four deserve to go and I have no problems with any of them. But considering the numbers and touchdowns BJGE has put up with less games and carries than the others and how awesome he does according to Football Outsiders, I chose him.
Wide Receiver
Starter: Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Dwayne Bowe (KC)
Bench: Mike Wallace (PIT), Terrell Owens (CIN)
Apologies to: Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU)
Johnson and Wayne got in this year because their reputation put them over the edge. Lloyd and Bowe are the AFC reserves and the only reason they're not starting is because they haven't done it for the past few years. I think Bowe, Wallace, and Lloyd are clear cut Pro Bowlers (Wallace is 2nd in DYAR and 1st in DVOA) and I chose T.O. over Wayne and Andre mainly because of his QB.
Tight End
Starter: Antonio Gates (SD)
Bench: Todd Heap (BAL)
Apologies to: Mercedes Lewis (JAX), Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Gronk doesn't get on the field/ go out to catch all that often because of the Pats many "weapons" so he doesn't get many looks, but when he does he does awesome things with it. Again, another situation where the bench spot is close and I have no problem (especially because the NFL also selects guys to play in the game) to take Lewis over Heap.
Center
Starter: Chris Evans (HOU)
Bench: Dan Koppen (NE)
Apologies to: Nick Mangold (NYJ)
The Jets probably have the best offensive line in football so I have no problem selecting Mangold to start because he's the leader of the line, even though he was an "inferior" blocker than both Koppen and Evans this year. But I have no idea why Pittsburgh's center Maurkice Pouncey was chosen. Not only was he a pretty bad blocker this year (Pittsbugh's center is 22nd in blocking) but the Steelers have a horrible offensive line (according to both FO and Steelers fans. Seriously, watch ONE Steelers game and you can see how bad they are at blocking). So Pouncey's selection, especially over a well respected and former Pro Bowler and the leader of NFL's second best offensive line Dan Koppen seems odd to me.
Left Guard
Starter: Andy Levitre (BUF)
Bench: Wade Smith (HOU)
Left Tackle
Starter: Branden Albert (KC)
Bench: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ)
Right Guard
Starter: Marshal Yanda (BAL)
Bench: Brandon Moore (NYJ)
Right Tackle
Starter: Ryan O'Callaghan (KC)
Bench: Chris Chester (BAL)
Like in the NFC, it seems to me players get selected mainly upon their names and not upon talent. And seriously, if another team's running back of a safety or something is voting for offensive lineman, they should stop. I believe in both Presidential elections and for All-Star games, if you're not knowledgeable about what you're voting for, don't vote. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen.
Kicker
Starter: Rob Bironas (TEN)
Punter
Starter: Shane Lechler (OAK)
Kick Returner
Starter: Brad Smith (NYJ)
Apologies to: Marc Mariani (TEN)
It seems to be the NFL took the best punt returner in both leagues as they took Hester and Mariani but I choose the better kick off returner in Smith. Both good choices though.
Quarterback
Starter: Tom Brady (NE)
Bench: Philip Rivers (SD), Matt Cassel (KC)
Apologies to: Kyle Orton (DEN)
For some reason I thought Rivers has never been selected to a Pro Bowl and I was going to go off on a rant about that. But he's been selected to two before this year. The biggest travesty of the AFC is selecting Peyton Manning over Matt Cassel. Manning is guaranteed to go to the Hall of Fame, has four MVPs, and been to 10 Pro Bowls. When he has a bad year or a fringe year, god forbid we let someone deserving in instead of him.
Running Back
Starter: Arian Foster (HOU)
Bench: Jamaal Charles (KC), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE)
Apologies to: Darren McFadden (OAK), Peyton Hillis (CLE), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
The third spot for the AFC running back position was so hard for me. Foster and Chalres were locks for me, but choosing one out of the three "apologies to" and The Law Firm was tough and all four deserve to go and I have no problems with any of them. But considering the numbers and touchdowns BJGE has put up with less games and carries than the others and how awesome he does according to Football Outsiders, I chose him.
Wide Receiver
Starter: Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Dwayne Bowe (KC)
Bench: Mike Wallace (PIT), Terrell Owens (CIN)
Apologies to: Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU)
Johnson and Wayne got in this year because their reputation put them over the edge. Lloyd and Bowe are the AFC reserves and the only reason they're not starting is because they haven't done it for the past few years. I think Bowe, Wallace, and Lloyd are clear cut Pro Bowlers (Wallace is 2nd in DYAR and 1st in DVOA) and I chose T.O. over Wayne and Andre mainly because of his QB.
Tight End
Starter: Antonio Gates (SD)
Bench: Todd Heap (BAL)
Apologies to: Mercedes Lewis (JAX), Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Gronk doesn't get on the field/ go out to catch all that often because of the Pats many "weapons" so he doesn't get many looks, but when he does he does awesome things with it. Again, another situation where the bench spot is close and I have no problem (especially because the NFL also selects guys to play in the game) to take Lewis over Heap.
Center
Starter: Chris Evans (HOU)
Bench: Dan Koppen (NE)
Apologies to: Nick Mangold (NYJ)
The Jets probably have the best offensive line in football so I have no problem selecting Mangold to start because he's the leader of the line, even though he was an "inferior" blocker than both Koppen and Evans this year. But I have no idea why Pittsburgh's center Maurkice Pouncey was chosen. Not only was he a pretty bad blocker this year (Pittsbugh's center is 22nd in blocking) but the Steelers have a horrible offensive line (according to both FO and Steelers fans. Seriously, watch ONE Steelers game and you can see how bad they are at blocking). So Pouncey's selection, especially over a well respected and former Pro Bowler and the leader of NFL's second best offensive line Dan Koppen seems odd to me.
Left Guard
Starter: Andy Levitre (BUF)
Bench: Wade Smith (HOU)
Left Tackle
Starter: Branden Albert (KC)
Bench: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ)
Right Guard
Starter: Marshal Yanda (BAL)
Bench: Brandon Moore (NYJ)
Right Tackle
Starter: Ryan O'Callaghan (KC)
Bench: Chris Chester (BAL)
Like in the NFC, it seems to me players get selected mainly upon their names and not upon talent. And seriously, if another team's running back of a safety or something is voting for offensive lineman, they should stop. I believe in both Presidential elections and for All-Star games, if you're not knowledgeable about what you're voting for, don't vote. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen.
Kicker
Starter: Rob Bironas (TEN)
Punter
Starter: Shane Lechler (OAK)
Kick Returner
Starter: Brad Smith (NYJ)
Apologies to: Marc Mariani (TEN)
It seems to be the NFL took the best punt returner in both leagues as they took Hester and Mariani but I choose the better kick off returner in Smith. Both good choices though.
Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VII: Actual Players, NFC, Offense
Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here
Quarterback
Starter: Michael Vick (PHI)
Bench: Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO)
Apologies to: Matt Ryan (ATL)
As good of a year as Matt Ryan is having and all the intangibles and all that crap, he is nowhere close to the level or talent or skill of Aaron Rodgers. Although I have no problem taking Matt Ryan, I would take him ahead of the interception prone Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers has been selected to a Pro Bowl before and is well respected in the league so I find it extremely surprising that he didn't get selected.
Running Back
Starter: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Bench: Adrian Peterson (MIN), Michael Turner (ATL)
St. Louis' Steven Jackson was selected over McCoy and this I'm sure was done based upon pure reputation. I understand that as good as Sam Bradford is he's not an elite quarterback yet and the Rams have a shitty offensive line and that Jackson is a great talent still, but he's done great things with a worse line and worse QB and selecting him over McCoy is a great injustice to a guy who plays in a position that doesn't have a long shelf life and needs every year to be recognized.
Wide Receiver
Starters: Roddy White (ATL), Calvin Johnson (DET)
Bench: Greg Jennings (GB), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Apologies to: Hakeem Nicks (NYG), DeSean Jackson (PHI), Marques Colston (NO)
You can read here about how I feel towards Larry Fitzgerald. DeSean Jackson was selected as the 4th NFC wide out and I think that's a great pick. I don't think Fitzgerald not being sent to Hawaii is as egregious as Rodgers or McCoy but I don't think Fitzgerald should be punished for his awful quarterback. My next choice after him would be Nicks, then Jackson, then Colston.
Tight End
Starter: Jason Witten (DAL)
Bench: Vernon Davis (SF)
Apologies to: Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
Again, another close one between Gonzalez and Davis and Gonzalez got selected over Davis but if I had my way, with essentially all things equal, I'll give more credit to the guy with the crappier quarterback.
Center
Starter: Jonathan Goodwin (NO)
Bench: Shaun O'Hara (NYG)
Left Guard
Starter: Mike Iupati (SF)
Bench: Justin Blalock (ATL)
Left Tackle
Starter: Levi Brown (ARI)
Bench: Frank Omiyale (CHI)
Right Guard
Starter: Harvey Dahl (ATL)
Bench: Chad Clifton (GB)
Right Tackle
Starter: Jason Smith (STL)
Bench: Kareen McKenzie (NYG)
My offensive line data is based upon DVOA and DYAR from Football Outsiders so I think there's an inherent flaw in my analysis to begin with, but I think it's interesting how little actual Pro Bowlers selected are on this list. I think that's because the players are selected based upon reputation and not based upon talent
Kicker
Starter: Ryan Longwell (MIN)
Punter
Starter: Mat McBriar (DAL)
Kick Returner
Starter: Devin Hester (CHI)
Quarterback
Starter: Michael Vick (PHI)
Bench: Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO)
Apologies to: Matt Ryan (ATL)
As good of a year as Matt Ryan is having and all the intangibles and all that crap, he is nowhere close to the level or talent or skill of Aaron Rodgers. Although I have no problem taking Matt Ryan, I would take him ahead of the interception prone Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers has been selected to a Pro Bowl before and is well respected in the league so I find it extremely surprising that he didn't get selected.
Running Back
Starter: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Bench: Adrian Peterson (MIN), Michael Turner (ATL)
St. Louis' Steven Jackson was selected over McCoy and this I'm sure was done based upon pure reputation. I understand that as good as Sam Bradford is he's not an elite quarterback yet and the Rams have a shitty offensive line and that Jackson is a great talent still, but he's done great things with a worse line and worse QB and selecting him over McCoy is a great injustice to a guy who plays in a position that doesn't have a long shelf life and needs every year to be recognized.
Wide Receiver
Starters: Roddy White (ATL), Calvin Johnson (DET)
Bench: Greg Jennings (GB), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Apologies to: Hakeem Nicks (NYG), DeSean Jackson (PHI), Marques Colston (NO)
You can read here about how I feel towards Larry Fitzgerald. DeSean Jackson was selected as the 4th NFC wide out and I think that's a great pick. I don't think Fitzgerald not being sent to Hawaii is as egregious as Rodgers or McCoy but I don't think Fitzgerald should be punished for his awful quarterback. My next choice after him would be Nicks, then Jackson, then Colston.
Tight End
Starter: Jason Witten (DAL)
Bench: Vernon Davis (SF)
Apologies to: Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
Again, another close one between Gonzalez and Davis and Gonzalez got selected over Davis but if I had my way, with essentially all things equal, I'll give more credit to the guy with the crappier quarterback.
Center
Starter: Jonathan Goodwin (NO)
Bench: Shaun O'Hara (NYG)
Left Guard
Starter: Mike Iupati (SF)
Bench: Justin Blalock (ATL)
Left Tackle
Starter: Levi Brown (ARI)
Bench: Frank Omiyale (CHI)
Right Guard
Starter: Harvey Dahl (ATL)
Bench: Chad Clifton (GB)
Right Tackle
Starter: Jason Smith (STL)
Bench: Kareen McKenzie (NYG)
My offensive line data is based upon DVOA and DYAR from Football Outsiders so I think there's an inherent flaw in my analysis to begin with, but I think it's interesting how little actual Pro Bowlers selected are on this list. I think that's because the players are selected based upon reputation and not based upon talent
Kicker
Starter: Ryan Longwell (MIN)
Punter
Starter: Mat McBriar (DAL)
Kick Returner
Starter: Devin Hester (CHI)
My Extended Playlist of Sports Podcasts
A few months ago I started a full time job where I have to wake up at 6:30am everyday! I quickly learned that the day gets boring fast when your just doing work all day, even when your doing work you enjoy. To make the day more enjoyable and go by faster I like to listen to stuff in the background. So I tried bringing a personal radio (with headphones) to work and listing to my local sports talk. It was hard to get good reception in my cubicle though. So after a few days I gave up on the radio. My company blocks many media outlets on our network such as ESPN Pod center so I couldn’t listen to ESPN’s podcast’s the same day they came out. So that leaves me listening to my i-pod and listing to podcast’s from the day before. I also listen to music on my i-pod, but like hearing talk in the background so I try to have good options ready to make me productive!
My favorite podcast are CBS Sports line fantasy football podcast. I find it is the most informative fantasy football podcast out there. I also like both fantasy focus podcast’s with fantasy focus football probably having the slight edge, even though I like baseball better. Those three Podcast are the only sport podcasts I really enjoy and look forward too. I recommend that you check these out.
The other podcasts I listen to are okay, but nothing special. If I wasn’t looking for other stuff to listen to while I was at work I wouldn’t listen to some of them. The BS report with Bill Simmons was highly recommended to me by TBO and it is starting to grow on me. This one is starting to become a borderline must listen to for me. I also listen to Baseball Today, Football Today, and Fantasy Focus Basketball. None of these last three are anything special though and I am trying to get TBO to do a fantasy basketball podcast with me to see how it comes out because of my rant on the lack of fantasy basketball outlets.
Let me know if you have any other good podcasts I should listen to!
My favorite podcast are CBS Sports line fantasy football podcast. I find it is the most informative fantasy football podcast out there. I also like both fantasy focus podcast’s with fantasy focus football probably having the slight edge, even though I like baseball better. Those three Podcast are the only sport podcasts I really enjoy and look forward too. I recommend that you check these out.
The other podcasts I listen to are okay, but nothing special. If I wasn’t looking for other stuff to listen to while I was at work I wouldn’t listen to some of them. The BS report with Bill Simmons was highly recommended to me by TBO and it is starting to grow on me. This one is starting to become a borderline must listen to for me. I also listen to Baseball Today, Football Today, and Fantasy Focus Basketball. None of these last three are anything special though and I am trying to get TBO to do a fantasy basketball podcast with me to see how it comes out because of my rant on the lack of fantasy basketball outlets.
Let me know if you have any other good podcasts I should listen to!
Greetings From the Chicago Cubs
You may be surprised to know that I am a fan of the Chicago Cubs. If you’re a loyal reader and have picked up on the hints over the years then you may know that I eat, sleep, and breath CUBBIE BLUE. The Chicago Cubs are always on my mind 365 days a year. Even in the middle on the off season I am day dreaming about their lineup for next year, thinking about who will lead off and what Rehab pitcher they may sign this offseason from Kevin Millwood to Brandon Webb. I make small decisions from scheduling my day around the games to life alerting decisions around my Cubbies. It is for this reason they sent me a Holiday card and I thought I would share it with the loyal GOI readers.
I thought it was pretty cool of them to wish me a Happy Holidays!
I thought it was pretty cool of them to wish me a Happy Holidays!
Cubsfan4evr1 Back because of Popular Demand
Our loyal Game Of Inches readers who have been reading since we started in December of 2008 know that I used to contribute much more frequent to the blog. For the past year (2010) I didn’t post that much to the blog for a number of reasons. I only posted a few times throughout the year. Now I am planning to post much more this year than I did last year. Even though that is not hard to do! I will not be posting as much as I did back in 2009 when I might have had 40-50 posts a month; I hope to have a few good quality articles a month (4-5) and a few fun ones to pass on to our readers. With Football season winding down, basketball season almost at the half way point, and baseball season a few months away I have a lot of inspiration.
Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VI: Before We Begin
I will do my best in the upcoming week to write a post each day about which players actually deserved to go to the Pro Bowl. Now that the official Pro Bowl selections have been released, every website seems to talk about who deserved to go and who didn't. This site is no exception. I feel strongly about Pro Bowl selections and any All-Star selections need to be correct. I feel this way because it's these selections that determine who goes into the Hall of Fame. For certain positions, like running back and quarterback, one can just look at their career numbers to see if they are Hall of Fame worthy. But for many positions in football, like offensive lineman and safeties, all we really have to go on is reputation and Pro Bowl selections.
So based upon my five previous posts where I just listed the different statistical numbers of every position, I will now tell you loyal readers who deserves to be a Pro Bowler and who does not.
You can read Part I, NFC Offense here
You can read Part II, AFC Offense here
You can read Part III about Larry Fitzgerald here
You can read Part IV, NFC defense here
You can read Part V, AFC defense here
Now for most positions, there is no one statistic that says if they are good or not. I posted a handful of important statistics and I will use my best, objective judgment to synthesize those statistics to give me the best players at each particular position. On the other hand, there are some positions, like offensive lineman and safeties, where I only have one statistic to go off of. It's also these positions that normally I would defer to coaches and NFL players on who they think is the best.
Unfortunately, these players and people know as much about these positions as the average fan does. Many people in the NFL vote solely on reputation and not on the talent and how well they performed in the previous year. I call it the Derek Jeter effect. Last year Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for SS despite being one of the worst defenders at his position. This is because he gets voted on because everyone at their mother knows who Derek Jeter is.
The best suggestion I've heard to remedy this problem is to have certain positions vote solely on other certain positions. For example, only offensive lineman should be allowed to vote for defensive lineman, only linebackers should be allowed to vote for tight ends, only wide receivers should be allowed to vote for cornerbacks, and if you've never be on the field for kicks, you should not be allowed to vote for special teamers.
But going back to certain positions, like safety, I don't think there will ever be a good statistic to measure that position. Part of being a great safety is solely being in position on the field. Many times, as a safety, you just need to be over the top to deter a quarterback not to throw on your side of the field. And how can you objectively measure a quarterback's decision making by him choosing not to throw a ball?
For offensive lineman, I use Football Outsiders DVOA and DYAR stats for how they measure lineman. However, FO does not rate by specific player, they rank by how well the team blocks. So all I know is say the Jets center is the best blocking center as opposed to FO telling me how good Nick Mangold is. This causes great havoc. Often times players change position (say like crappy Chris Williams moving from tackle to guard) so while Bills LG (hypothetically) is the #1 blocker, that might consist of say two or three players. Injuries could also be a cause of this. This is the biggest criticisms I got on my Michael Oher post. My research indicated that he played in one positions but as Baltimore Ravens fan *politely* told me, he actually ended up playing most of his time in a different position.
Now there are certain players like Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy that their absence from the Pro Bowl has been a glaring and overt travesty. Then there are certain players where I think the actual Pro Bowl selection and my Pro Bowl selection are close. I think a great argument can be made for both players but I personally choose the non-actual selection. I will do my best to try and distinguish between the travesty selections and the "It-Could-Go-Either-Way" selections.
And now that I have all these disclaimers, soon we will begin with the actual selections!
So based upon my five previous posts where I just listed the different statistical numbers of every position, I will now tell you loyal readers who deserves to be a Pro Bowler and who does not.
You can read Part I, NFC Offense here
You can read Part II, AFC Offense here
You can read Part III about Larry Fitzgerald here
You can read Part IV, NFC defense here
You can read Part V, AFC defense here
Now for most positions, there is no one statistic that says if they are good or not. I posted a handful of important statistics and I will use my best, objective judgment to synthesize those statistics to give me the best players at each particular position. On the other hand, there are some positions, like offensive lineman and safeties, where I only have one statistic to go off of. It's also these positions that normally I would defer to coaches and NFL players on who they think is the best.
Unfortunately, these players and people know as much about these positions as the average fan does. Many people in the NFL vote solely on reputation and not on the talent and how well they performed in the previous year. I call it the Derek Jeter effect. Last year Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for SS despite being one of the worst defenders at his position. This is because he gets voted on because everyone at their mother knows who Derek Jeter is.
The best suggestion I've heard to remedy this problem is to have certain positions vote solely on other certain positions. For example, only offensive lineman should be allowed to vote for defensive lineman, only linebackers should be allowed to vote for tight ends, only wide receivers should be allowed to vote for cornerbacks, and if you've never be on the field for kicks, you should not be allowed to vote for special teamers.
But going back to certain positions, like safety, I don't think there will ever be a good statistic to measure that position. Part of being a great safety is solely being in position on the field. Many times, as a safety, you just need to be over the top to deter a quarterback not to throw on your side of the field. And how can you objectively measure a quarterback's decision making by him choosing not to throw a ball?
For offensive lineman, I use Football Outsiders DVOA and DYAR stats for how they measure lineman. However, FO does not rate by specific player, they rank by how well the team blocks. So all I know is say the Jets center is the best blocking center as opposed to FO telling me how good Nick Mangold is. This causes great havoc. Often times players change position (say like crappy Chris Williams moving from tackle to guard) so while Bills LG (hypothetically) is the #1 blocker, that might consist of say two or three players. Injuries could also be a cause of this. This is the biggest criticisms I got on my Michael Oher post. My research indicated that he played in one positions but as Baltimore Ravens fan *politely* told me, he actually ended up playing most of his time in a different position.
Now there are certain players like Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy that their absence from the Pro Bowl has been a glaring and overt travesty. Then there are certain players where I think the actual Pro Bowl selection and my Pro Bowl selection are close. I think a great argument can be made for both players but I personally choose the non-actual selection. I will do my best to try and distinguish between the travesty selections and the "It-Could-Go-Either-Way" selections.
And now that I have all these disclaimers, soon we will begin with the actual selections!
Should That Have Really Been An Interception?
How many times have you watched a football game and seen that the official score card said that it was an interception, but you knew in your heart of hearts that the interception was the fault of the wide receiver? If the answer is "never" then you've never seen a a football game in your life and feel free to stop reading this post right now. On the opposite end of the spectrum, how many times have you seen a defensive player make a great read, get his hands on the ball, only to have it slip out of his fingers? On those plays, the quarterback SHOULD have an interception that was (most likely) his fault but got off lucky.
I know this is a fact I have brought up many times in private football conversations with friends but I don't think I have done so a whole lot publicly on GOI. I've always wanted to chart to see how many interceptions a QB really should have gotten credited to him. One year I was just going to do it for the Bears quarterback since I watch every game, but Football Outsiders has beaten me to the punch.
When I first saw what FO did, I practically ejaculated in my pants. It's the data I've always wanted to compile and had hoped some one would do it for me. Or I'd find the time to do it, publish my findings and be the next Voros McCracken for football. But alas, FO has done the work and here is their findings (through Week 14).
Football Outsiders have broken the interceptions into four categories: actual official score card interceptions (1), interceptions off of hail marys (2), interceptions that were the receivers fault (3), and interceptions that were dropped by the defender (4). Then, using kindergarten math, they calculated the quarterback's "true" INT rate by doing: 1 + 4 - 2 - 3.
You can read the full article here or see the results below (click to enlarge):
Some quick notes:
- It seems to be that Mark Sanchez has not really improved at all from his rookie year. The major difference between 2009 Sanchez and 2010 Sanchez (besides learning how to slide) was the interception rate. It seemed as though Sanchez had been making better decisions this year. But it looks like he is just getting extremely lucky this year.
- It's disheartening to see Jay Cutler so high, but not surprising. I still am under the contention that he truly is great QB but his supporting staff is really bad (mainly his offensive line. And also his receivers). Also, because I'm a Cutler supporter, guys like Derek Anderson are lowered because they haven't played as many games as Cutler. I think if Anderson had gotten as any attempts as Cutler had, Anderson would probably lead this list.
- In 2009, against the Packers, Jay Cutler threw four interceptions. At least two of them were the receivers fault yet probably would not be included in this analysis. I remember a particular play where Jay Cutler was throwing in a zone and not to a particular player. However, Johnny Knox cut left when the play was designed for Knox to cut right. Therefore, Cutler did what he was supposed to do and threw it where he should have, but there was no receiver there so the pass got intercepted. I'm under the firm belief that those should not count as INTs towards the QB, but fully admit plays like those are extremely hard to quantify.
- I'm very happy to see Peyton Manning's name up there because he's truly having a pretty bad season and the biggest reason for that is that he's been a turn over machine. Why is it that in 2009 when Manning had Wayne, Collie, and Garcon for receivers and Manning played well, everyone was praising Manning for being able to work with anyone. Yet in 2010 when Manning is having a bad year and also playing with Wayne, Collie, and Garcon that Manning gets a free pass because he's playing with shitty receivers?
___________________________
EDITOR'S NOTE: After a night to rest and think about it, I'm not 100% sure how I feel about adding defender's drops into this equation. On one hand, I think adding it is a good indicator for the decision making of the quarterback and a good predictor or next year. But on the other, the final result of the play didn't affect anything. An interception is extremely costly to a team because it not only does it prevent you from scoring, it makes it easier for your opponent to score. If you look at statistics like passer rating, WAR, and EPA and such, interceptions bring down your numbers drastically. But when a defender drops an interception, the drive still continues. You still have a chance to score and your opponent does not because at the end of the day, there was not an interception.
I know this is a fact I have brought up many times in private football conversations with friends but I don't think I have done so a whole lot publicly on GOI. I've always wanted to chart to see how many interceptions a QB really should have gotten credited to him. One year I was just going to do it for the Bears quarterback since I watch every game, but Football Outsiders has beaten me to the punch.
When I first saw what FO did, I practically ejaculated in my pants. It's the data I've always wanted to compile and had hoped some one would do it for me. Or I'd find the time to do it, publish my findings and be the next Voros McCracken for football. But alas, FO has done the work and here is their findings (through Week 14).
Football Outsiders have broken the interceptions into four categories: actual official score card interceptions (1), interceptions off of hail marys (2), interceptions that were the receivers fault (3), and interceptions that were dropped by the defender (4). Then, using kindergarten math, they calculated the quarterback's "true" INT rate by doing: 1 + 4 - 2 - 3.
You can read the full article here or see the results below (click to enlarge):
Some quick notes:
- It seems to be that Mark Sanchez has not really improved at all from his rookie year. The major difference between 2009 Sanchez and 2010 Sanchez (besides learning how to slide) was the interception rate. It seemed as though Sanchez had been making better decisions this year. But it looks like he is just getting extremely lucky this year.
- It's disheartening to see Jay Cutler so high, but not surprising. I still am under the contention that he truly is great QB but his supporting staff is really bad (mainly his offensive line. And also his receivers). Also, because I'm a Cutler supporter, guys like Derek Anderson are lowered because they haven't played as many games as Cutler. I think if Anderson had gotten as any attempts as Cutler had, Anderson would probably lead this list.
- In 2009, against the Packers, Jay Cutler threw four interceptions. At least two of them were the receivers fault yet probably would not be included in this analysis. I remember a particular play where Jay Cutler was throwing in a zone and not to a particular player. However, Johnny Knox cut left when the play was designed for Knox to cut right. Therefore, Cutler did what he was supposed to do and threw it where he should have, but there was no receiver there so the pass got intercepted. I'm under the firm belief that those should not count as INTs towards the QB, but fully admit plays like those are extremely hard to quantify.
- I'm very happy to see Peyton Manning's name up there because he's truly having a pretty bad season and the biggest reason for that is that he's been a turn over machine. Why is it that in 2009 when Manning had Wayne, Collie, and Garcon for receivers and Manning played well, everyone was praising Manning for being able to work with anyone. Yet in 2010 when Manning is having a bad year and also playing with Wayne, Collie, and Garcon that Manning gets a free pass because he's playing with shitty receivers?
___________________________
EDITOR'S NOTE: After a night to rest and think about it, I'm not 100% sure how I feel about adding defender's drops into this equation. On one hand, I think adding it is a good indicator for the decision making of the quarterback and a good predictor or next year. But on the other, the final result of the play didn't affect anything. An interception is extremely costly to a team because it not only does it prevent you from scoring, it makes it easier for your opponent to score. If you look at statistics like passer rating, WAR, and EPA and such, interceptions bring down your numbers drastically. But when a defender drops an interception, the drive still continues. You still have a chance to score and your opponent does not because at the end of the day, there was not an interception.
Who Deserves To Be The MVP?
I don't know. I truly don't know.
The obvious choices are between Tom Brady and Michael Vick. I would have loved to have thrown Phillip Rivers' name in the mix as well considering how great of a first half he had and just how truly awful his receiving corps was at the time. But a bad second half and a playoff elimination sealed his fate for him also getting eliminated from the MVP hunt. I have talked to The 'Bright' One about this and he says hands down Vick deserves it. I could not strongly agree or disagree one way or another as long as one of those two men win it.
So to help me decide, I've decided to make a pro/cons list for Brady and Vick to help you, the reader, make an informed decision on who you think deserves to be the NFL MVP in 2010.
Pro Brady/ Anti-Vick
Tom Brady has been better at not turning over the ball
When the debate was still Rivers vs. Vick, the one thing that Vick had going for him is that he hadn't thrown an interception yet. In fact, he played in 7 straight games without throwing one. But then he faced the vaunted Bears defense and threw his first interception- in the red zone no less.
In 2010, Michael Vick ended the year (in 12 games) with 6 interceptions. Tom Brady on the other hand (in 15 games) has only thrown 4 interceptions. In fact, Tom Brady has set the record by throwing 319 straight attempts without throwing a pick and hasn't thrown an INT since Week 4. Vick has thrown at least one interception for the past five weeks versus Tom Brady who has only thrown a pick in two games this year.
Tom Brady has the better passer rating
Obviously this can be kind of a flawed statistic when one of the players you're comparing to is a great rusher, but Vick has also been a great passer has well with his 100.2 passer rating. But I think Brady's league leading 109.8 can not be ignored. Despite passer rating being more hard to calculate than the one millionth number in pi, I think it's a great stat and my favorite and best indicator and traditional statistic of greatness for a QB.
Michael Vick has the better supporting staff
You can look at the numbers of any Patriots player all you want, but what you really need to do is look at the physical skill of every player. Yes, Danny Woodhead had a fantastic year but the reason he looked so good is because of the great system Bill Belichick has in place. But being under 5'9", Woodhead would flounder in about 30 other systems. Compare his and The Law Firm's talents to LeSean McCoy- who was a top 2 running back in the NFC. McCoy looked like a healthy Brian Westbrook and has the physical tools to do what he did in 2010 on essentially every team (but probably not Carolina).
But what you really need to do is look at the team's receiving corps. Vick has a top 10 receiver talent in DeSean Jackson and a player that can score a TD and run past any corner in the league on any given play. At then you have a great young talent in Jeremy Maclin who would put up top 10 numbers if it weren't for Jackson there. No matter what you think of either player, they don't come anywhere close to the talent of Deion Branch and Wes Welker. You can look to see what Branch did in Seattle to know that he's purely a system guy and give all the praise you want to Welker, but there's a reason Miami was so easily and willing to get rid of him. Branch and Welker are products of their great system but Jackson and Maclin are just straight up great talents that would succeed anywhere.
And it's a helluva lot easier to put up great numbers with a great supporting cast around you.
Tom Brady has the better advanced stats
If you don't understand WPA, read here. WPA is the same stat used in baseball, just (obviously) used in a football context. Every down made and play made during that down affects the scoring of the game. The success of the play is weighted against what down was it, what's the current score of the game, how much time is left, and where did the play occur on the field. The best way to think of it: a 3 yard run on 4th and 2 is a lot more important than a 3 yard run on 1st and 20. It's this concept that goes into every play and is given a numerical value to each player.
I'm pretty sure this statistic also encompasses rushing plays made by a quarterback as well as passing plays and Tom Brady's 3.26 and .22 WPA/game is better than Vick's 1.78 WPA and .15 WPA/game.
That same concept for WPA also goes into another statistic called EPA where Brady leads all quarterbacks in that with 140.2 (compared to Vick's 102.1) and as well leading all quarterbacks in EPA/play with 0.26 compared to Vick's 0.20. You can read how to calculate EPA here.
Brady leads the league in both DYAR (total value) and DVOA (value per play) according to Football Outsiders, but even I'll admit this is extremely flawed because Vick's value comes in both the passing and running game whereas Brady's value comes essentially solely from the passing game- which is what DYAR and DVOA measure. Vick is first among QB's in rushing DYAR and 6th among QBs in rushing DVOA.
Pro Vick/ Anti-Brady
Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the game
I don't mean to say that MVP's should be given out solely based upon a subjective feeling of pleasure a fan gets from watching an NFL player, but think about why Vick is so much fun to watch- it's because he's been such a great passer as well as a great runner. Which means, as a defense, you have to account for Vick running as well as passing, which adds a huge strain to a defense. Especially when Vick is elite at doing both. And it's THAT reason that makes Vick a legitimate MVP candidate.
Although it's "easier" to scheme for Tom Brady because you know he's going to pass, it's still hard to execute. But because Vick is great at multiple aspects of an offense it makes him so much fun to watch and so hard to play defense against. Imagine if Dan Marino and Walter Payton were on the same team how great that offense would be? Now imagine if both were the same player and you get Vick (now obviously I'm being extremely hyperbolic, but I hope you get my drift). Having a top tiered quarterback and a top tiered running back in the same player is huge benefit to any team.
Tom Brady has the better passing offensive line
I don't care if you're Joe freaking Montana, if you're playing behind say this 2010 Bears offensive line (currently ranked dead last in passing tackling) or some of the Lions offensive lines in the past, then you are not going to put up great stats. When you have time to throw, you have time to go through multiple reads and then it is much easier for you to make completions and drive your team down the field. This is Football 101 (if thought by me. This is like grad school concepts if this class is being taught by Mike Lombardi). So you can look at straight stats all you want, but any statistic is going to favor the guys with the better line. This year, Brady and Vick are on equal footing as the basics of throwing the ball to a receiver to get 1st downs/touchdowns, so it's the "little" things like offensive line that really make the difference.
This year, the Patriots have the 6th best passing offensive line versus the Eagles who have the 27th best. That's a huge disparity and like Aaron Rodgers last year, it's a great accomplishment to put up elite numbers while having constant pressure in your face. And it's Vick's mobility that helps him get past a bad offensive line. If Brady played behind the Eagles line and Vick behind the Patriots line, then I'm sure Vick would put up passing numbers.
Unfortunately, that's pure conjecture. But the fact that Vick has the far inferior line gives him a great boost.
Vick has the better TD rate
I took into account both rushing TDs and passing TDs by each player. Brady currently has 35 total TDs (1 rushing) compared to Vick that has 30 total touchdowns (9 rushing). But Brady has played in three more games than Vick.
Currently, Brady has scored 2.33 TD/game versus Vick who has 2.50 TD/game- which gives the edge to Vick.
After I wrote the Brady bit I was going to conclude that Brady deserves the MVP but after finishing this article as a whole, I'm still conflicted. Even if you have a personal preference one way or the other, as long as either Vick or Brady is crowned MVP, the voters made the correct choice.
The obvious choices are between Tom Brady and Michael Vick. I would have loved to have thrown Phillip Rivers' name in the mix as well considering how great of a first half he had and just how truly awful his receiving corps was at the time. But a bad second half and a playoff elimination sealed his fate for him also getting eliminated from the MVP hunt. I have talked to The 'Bright' One about this and he says hands down Vick deserves it. I could not strongly agree or disagree one way or another as long as one of those two men win it.
So to help me decide, I've decided to make a pro/cons list for Brady and Vick to help you, the reader, make an informed decision on who you think deserves to be the NFL MVP in 2010.
Pro Brady/ Anti-Vick
Tom Brady has been better at not turning over the ball
When the debate was still Rivers vs. Vick, the one thing that Vick had going for him is that he hadn't thrown an interception yet. In fact, he played in 7 straight games without throwing one. But then he faced the vaunted Bears defense and threw his first interception- in the red zone no less.
In 2010, Michael Vick ended the year (in 12 games) with 6 interceptions. Tom Brady on the other hand (in 15 games) has only thrown 4 interceptions. In fact, Tom Brady has set the record by throwing 319 straight attempts without throwing a pick and hasn't thrown an INT since Week 4. Vick has thrown at least one interception for the past five weeks versus Tom Brady who has only thrown a pick in two games this year.
Tom Brady has the better passer rating
Obviously this can be kind of a flawed statistic when one of the players you're comparing to is a great rusher, but Vick has also been a great passer has well with his 100.2 passer rating. But I think Brady's league leading 109.8 can not be ignored. Despite passer rating being more hard to calculate than the one millionth number in pi, I think it's a great stat and my favorite and best indicator and traditional statistic of greatness for a QB.
Michael Vick has the better supporting staff
You can look at the numbers of any Patriots player all you want, but what you really need to do is look at the physical skill of every player. Yes, Danny Woodhead had a fantastic year but the reason he looked so good is because of the great system Bill Belichick has in place. But being under 5'9", Woodhead would flounder in about 30 other systems. Compare his and The Law Firm's talents to LeSean McCoy- who was a top 2 running back in the NFC. McCoy looked like a healthy Brian Westbrook and has the physical tools to do what he did in 2010 on essentially every team (but probably not Carolina).
But what you really need to do is look at the team's receiving corps. Vick has a top 10 receiver talent in DeSean Jackson and a player that can score a TD and run past any corner in the league on any given play. At then you have a great young talent in Jeremy Maclin who would put up top 10 numbers if it weren't for Jackson there. No matter what you think of either player, they don't come anywhere close to the talent of Deion Branch and Wes Welker. You can look to see what Branch did in Seattle to know that he's purely a system guy and give all the praise you want to Welker, but there's a reason Miami was so easily and willing to get rid of him. Branch and Welker are products of their great system but Jackson and Maclin are just straight up great talents that would succeed anywhere.
And it's a helluva lot easier to put up great numbers with a great supporting cast around you.
Tom Brady has the better advanced stats
If you don't understand WPA, read here. WPA is the same stat used in baseball, just (obviously) used in a football context. Every down made and play made during that down affects the scoring of the game. The success of the play is weighted against what down was it, what's the current score of the game, how much time is left, and where did the play occur on the field. The best way to think of it: a 3 yard run on 4th and 2 is a lot more important than a 3 yard run on 1st and 20. It's this concept that goes into every play and is given a numerical value to each player.
I'm pretty sure this statistic also encompasses rushing plays made by a quarterback as well as passing plays and Tom Brady's 3.26 and .22 WPA/game is better than Vick's 1.78 WPA and .15 WPA/game.
That same concept for WPA also goes into another statistic called EPA where Brady leads all quarterbacks in that with 140.2 (compared to Vick's 102.1) and as well leading all quarterbacks in EPA/play with 0.26 compared to Vick's 0.20. You can read how to calculate EPA here.
Brady leads the league in both DYAR (total value) and DVOA (value per play) according to Football Outsiders, but even I'll admit this is extremely flawed because Vick's value comes in both the passing and running game whereas Brady's value comes essentially solely from the passing game- which is what DYAR and DVOA measure. Vick is first among QB's in rushing DYAR and 6th among QBs in rushing DVOA.
Pro Vick/ Anti-Brady
Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the game
I don't mean to say that MVP's should be given out solely based upon a subjective feeling of pleasure a fan gets from watching an NFL player, but think about why Vick is so much fun to watch- it's because he's been such a great passer as well as a great runner. Which means, as a defense, you have to account for Vick running as well as passing, which adds a huge strain to a defense. Especially when Vick is elite at doing both. And it's THAT reason that makes Vick a legitimate MVP candidate.
Although it's "easier" to scheme for Tom Brady because you know he's going to pass, it's still hard to execute. But because Vick is great at multiple aspects of an offense it makes him so much fun to watch and so hard to play defense against. Imagine if Dan Marino and Walter Payton were on the same team how great that offense would be? Now imagine if both were the same player and you get Vick (now obviously I'm being extremely hyperbolic, but I hope you get my drift). Having a top tiered quarterback and a top tiered running back in the same player is huge benefit to any team.
Tom Brady has the better passing offensive line
I don't care if you're Joe freaking Montana, if you're playing behind say this 2010 Bears offensive line (currently ranked dead last in passing tackling) or some of the Lions offensive lines in the past, then you are not going to put up great stats. When you have time to throw, you have time to go through multiple reads and then it is much easier for you to make completions and drive your team down the field. This is Football 101 (if thought by me. This is like grad school concepts if this class is being taught by Mike Lombardi). So you can look at straight stats all you want, but any statistic is going to favor the guys with the better line. This year, Brady and Vick are on equal footing as the basics of throwing the ball to a receiver to get 1st downs/touchdowns, so it's the "little" things like offensive line that really make the difference.
This year, the Patriots have the 6th best passing offensive line versus the Eagles who have the 27th best. That's a huge disparity and like Aaron Rodgers last year, it's a great accomplishment to put up elite numbers while having constant pressure in your face. And it's Vick's mobility that helps him get past a bad offensive line. If Brady played behind the Eagles line and Vick behind the Patriots line, then I'm sure Vick would put up passing numbers.
Unfortunately, that's pure conjecture. But the fact that Vick has the far inferior line gives him a great boost.
Vick has the better TD rate
I took into account both rushing TDs and passing TDs by each player. Brady currently has 35 total TDs (1 rushing) compared to Vick that has 30 total touchdowns (9 rushing). But Brady has played in three more games than Vick.
Currently, Brady has scored 2.33 TD/game versus Vick who has 2.50 TD/game- which gives the edge to Vick.
After I wrote the Brady bit I was going to conclude that Brady deserves the MVP but after finishing this article as a whole, I'm still conflicted. Even if you have a personal preference one way or the other, as long as either Vick or Brady is crowned MVP, the voters made the correct choice.
Fantasy Outlook: Zack Greinke
Below is my latest article for The Hardball Times, Greinke The Brewer.
Duly noting that "Greinke the Yankee" would have been an infinitely better title, a question lingers as the dust from the most recent "blockbuster" trade settles: how valuable is Zack Greinke now that he is in the NL (Central)? That is the topic of today's conversation.
Before we look at Greinke's prospective 2011, let's look at his past and his pre-trade expectations.
Drafted with the sixth overall pick in 2002, Zack Greinke has been many things in his brief major league career. He was a stud prospect who played in the Futures Game (then again, so did Neil Cotts...) and was touted highly by Baseball America. Rushed to the majors, he pitched relatively well in 2004, logging a 3.97 ERA (4.28 xFIP), a 1.17 WHIP, and 6.21 strikeouts per nine innings over 145 innings as a rookie.
Greinke was also a "bust" in 2005, pitching 183 innings of 5.80 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, 5.61 K/9 baseball. The young hurler then walked away from baseball in 2006 with depression and anxiety issues, only to return in a primarily-relief role in 2007. He was successful on the surface (3.69 ERA), but his 45.5% flyball percentage overall and 4.28 xFIP indicated that he may have been pitching a bit over his head. As a starter in 2007, Greinke logged a 3.80 ERA, but his 6.68 K/9 and 4.69 xFIP were well below the quality of his numbers as a reliable reliever (9.28 K/9, 3.77 xFIP). At this point in his career he barely whelmed Royals fans.
Then, in 2008, Greinke took his first big step forward. As a full-time starter, he struck out 183 batters (8.14 K/9) and walked a mere 56 hitters (2.49 BB/9) over the course of 202.1 strong innings for the Royals (3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). His peripherals were also strong, as he logged a career-best 3.76 xFIP and 3.77 tERA with a much stronger groundball showing (42.7%) than he had ever posted prior. His 3.47 ERA that season was the lowest ERA logged by a full-time Royals starter in 11 years and Dayton "trust the process" Moore rewarded Greinke with a ridiculously team-friendly, four-year, $38 million contract that bought out the rest of Greinke's arbitration years plus two free agency years.
2009, however, was Greinke's breakout season. Fantasy owners who took a shining to him and put stock in his 2008 showing were greatly rewarded with fantasy and surface statistics which, like Tim Lincecum, matched his underlying peripherals. By season end, Greinke "only" accumulated 16 wins (because the Royals offense was truly terrible that season), but he tossed 229.1 strong innings of 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP baseball with 242 strikeouts to a meager 51 walks (4.75 K/BB, second to only Roy Halladay's 5.94 mark in the AL).
His peripherals were just as solid as his fantasy numbers: 9.50 K/9, career best 9.9 Swinging-Strike Percentage (SwStr%), 2.00 BB/9, 0.99 GB/FB ratio, 3.15 xFIP, 2.33 FIP, 2.59 tERA. Baseball Monster ranked Greinke as the second-most-valuable fantasy player of 2009 for rotisserie leagues, behind only Albert Pujols. In terms of value per outing, he ranked fourth (per Baseball Monster), behind only Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, and Chris Carpenter.
Given Greinke's 2009, 2010 was a slight disappointment. His career-best groundball showing (46.0%) was offset by a huge step back in the strikeouts column (7.40 K/9, 7.5% SwStr%) and a little regression with the free passes (2.25 BB/9). While still a strong pitcher (his numbers were on par with the peripherals of Ricky Romero, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw and C.C. Sabathia), the Royal's truly terrible combination of awful defense (-45.5 team fielding runs) and no hitting ability (-8.2 team batting runs) led to lackluster numbers on Greinke's end: 4.17 ERA and 10 wins to 14 losses. But hey, his 1.25 WHIP was still solid.
Heading into 2011, Greinke had been the center of a lot of trade rumors this offseason and with good reason, too. He was clearly the best available pitcher on the market, and if CC Sabathia does not opt out of his contract with the Yankees following the 2011 season, the best free-agent pitcher on the market next off-season will likely be a battle of Number Twos between Ryan Dempster (who will be 35 years old), Hiroki Kuroda (37 years old), Javier Vazquez (35 years old) and Wandy Rodriguez (33 years old) if the Astros do not extend him.
Greinke, only 27 right now, is affordable (two-years, $27 million), imposes minimum health risk (no history of physical injury, only a two-year commitment), and will likely end up with Type-A status and therefore net his employer some prospects in 2013 if deemed too expensive to extend long term. Victor Wang's free agent compensation valuation research and some number manipulation courtesy of Sky Kaulkman reveals that "the average Type-A compensation package averages around $5.5M in value." Accordingly, Greinke's expected "cost" (ignoring the offset of prospects traded for him) is only $21.5 million over the next two seasons.
Using a $5 million rate per win commensurate with this offseason's spending by teams, he would only need to be worth a cumulative +4.3 WAR over the next two seasons, or about +2.2 WAR per season, to be worth his salary. Greinke has been worth at least that per Fangraphs' WAR valuation (FIP-focused) every year that he has pitched in the major leagues except 2006, where he logged a mere 6.1 innings.
Noting this, you can understand why, in real life, a team like the Brewers would want to acquire Greinke, especially with Prince Fielder most likely leaving and the other established major league talent on the roster (Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, etc.) getting more expensive and ever closer to free agency. This trade by the Brewers, along with the Shaun Marcum deal, is a clear win-now-and-next-year move. But I digress.
Prior to the trade, Greinke was positioned at No. 22 in my top 100 starting pitcher rankings (to be released in January). The perpetually poor defensive posture of the Royals, the failure of Dayton Moore to convincingly upgrade the offense, and the recent influx of hitting talent to the AL Central (Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Tsuyoshi Nishioka) kept me from green lighting dollar allocation commensurate with another 2009 or relatively elite season, irrespective of Greinke's pitching abilities. On the Royals, he was pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an 8.0ish K/9. Strong numbers, but Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos, Chad Billingsley or even Shaun Marcum may be safer choices.
The move to the NL (and the NL central, no less) changes everything, however, and a reassessment is necessary. This background set, let's move to the post-trade analysis.
Before forecasting Greinke's 2011, it is necessary to settle upon a baseline set of numbers to massage into a rough projection. Let's start with the strikeout rate. Since returning to his role as a full-time starter in 2008, Greinke has posted Swinging-Strike rates of 9.3%, 9.9%, and 7.5%. The major league average is around 8.5%. Greinke's K% (the major league average is 17.2%) and K/9 over this period closely track the changes in SwStr%: 21.5% (8.14 K/9), 26.4% (9.50 K/9), 19.7% (7.40 K/9).
What caused Greinke's change in whiffs is difficult to pin down. Perhaps it was a matter of pitch selection and pitch quality. A quick glance at the pitch values and usages on Fangraphs indicates that Greinke was utilizing a slightly-above-average curveball 12% of the time in 2009 and 14.3% in 2009. In 2010, the curveball was a below average pitch, which he only utilized 10% of the time.
Greinke also turned to his best pitch, the slider, less often in 2010. Whereas he went to a slider (worth more than +2.3 runs per 100 times thrown in each of 2008, 2009, and 2010) 18.8% of the time in 2008 and 20.2% of the time in 2009, Greinke's usage percentage dropped to 15.5% in 2010.
This decreased usage of sliders and curveballs manifested in the form of increased changeup usage, who tossed the pitch 13.0% of the time last year after throwing it only 7.7% of the time in 2008 and 6.1% of the time in 2009. The changeup is by far and away Greinke's worst pitch in his four-pitch arsenel. At a pitch value of -0.87 runs per 100 times thrown over the course his career, the changeup is Greinke's only distinctively below-average pitch.
While pitch classification is an inexact science, these usage changes of greater than five percent seem to indicate something. What, if anything, is difficult to say, especially if the numbers are just changes in the classification algorithms. I will defer to others, who are warmly welcomed to constructively explain/criticize the data in the comments, to make the qualitative judgments. The primary concern here is to identify possible explanations for Greinke's strikeout fluctuations.
Greinke's strikeout stuff, be it by luck or modifications in pitch selection or something else, should rebound somewhat in 2011. As noted above, in the AL his expected K/9 was around 8%. Using Greinke's 2008 (21.5% K%) as a rebounding point, let's move on to projecting an innings total and an expected batters-faced figure.
Greinke has logged 200+ innings each of the past three seasons as the Royals' ace. Assuming he is anointed the Brewers' ace and routinely gets the standard four days of rest treatment (a lofty assumption in light of the Brewers' desperate usage of C.C. Sabathia in 2008), a 162-game schedule would give Greinke 33 prospective starting opportunities. Given that he has started 98 games over the past three seasons, 33 games started seems like a fair starting projection.
Over the past three seasons, Greinke has average 6.2 innings per outing. Keeping this figure constant and applying it to his 33 expected games started, we get an expected innings total baseline of 220. As noted last month in my Ted Lilly analysis, "an average of 4.31 batters have come to the plate per inning" over the past three seasons. Applying this rate to our 220 innings baseline for Greinke, we get an expected total batters faced (xTBF) figure of approximately 948.
Taking Greinke's xTBF of 948 and applying his 2008 strikeout rate (21.5%), we find that his expected strikeout total for 2011 would have been 204, for a K/9 of 8.35, had he remained with the Royals. Greinke was traded to the Brewers, however, and facing a pitcher every ninth batter rather than a DH clearly has an impact on a pitcher's strikeout rate.
According to Derek Carty's research from two years ago, pitchers switching from the AL to the NL tend to see a +0.57 increase in their K/9. Applying that figure to Greinke's expected mark had he stuck with the Royals (8.35), we find a new expected K/9 of approximately 8.92. This would raise Greinke's strikeout total from 204 to 218 over the course of 220 innings pitched.
Next, we need an ERA baseline to manipulate. Greinke's golden 2009 was book-ended by two seasons of 3.76 xFIPS, with tERAs of 3.77 and 3.51 in 2008 and 2010, respectively. Given Greinke's career ERA of 3.82, let's semi-arbitrarily settle upon a 3.65 ERA as the baseline for this analysis. That accounts for the likelihood of his "true talent" being around 3.76 with a realization that 3.76 might be a bit of an undersell. Over the course of 220 innings pitched, a 3.65 ERA would approximate into 89.2 total runs allowed (RA).
First accounting for a change in league per Derek Carty's league changing research for pitchers, an AL-to-NL switch for pitchers tends to subtract 0.42 runs per nine off a pitcher's bottom line ERA. Over the course of 220 innings, that 0.42 runs per nine translates into approximately 10.3 fewer runs allowed. Subtracting this figure off of Greinke's baseline RA total, we find a new NL-adjusted expected RA total of 78.9.
Next, we need to adjust for park figures. According to Baseball-Reference.com's multi-year park factor data, Miller Park surprisingly depresses offense by about 4 percent. Multiplying Greinke's NL-adjusted expected RA figure by 0.98 (as the Brewers only play half of their games at home), we get a new league-and-park-adjusted RA total of 77.3. That figure would approximate into an ERA of 3.16.
The next step in the expected ERA analysis is quite tricky. As noted in my Ted Lilly analysis:
As should be obvious by the above quote, applying defensive adjustments to pitchers is highly inaccurate. Given this and the Brewer's largely average defense last season (-4.7 team fielding runs) and returning cast of characters, minus Jim Edmonds and his +7.0 UZR glove in 2010, let's leave Greinke's league-and-park-adjusted RA total of 77.3 largely untouched. Feel free to apply a defensive adjustment as you see appropriate, but for the purposes of this analysis, we are merely going to round out Greinke's expected ERA to 3.20.
With a strikeout rate/total and expected ERA in place, we turn finally to Greinke's prospective WHIP and walk rate. His walk rate over the past three seasons has remained largely stable. His F-Strike% has fluctuated between 61.6% and 62.4%, while walking 56 batters in 2008, 51 batters in 2009 and 55 batters in 2010. Greinke also plunked 15 batters to only two intentional free passes (+13 net modified walks (mBB*)).
*mBB = BB - IBB + HBP
If we smooth out Greinke's three-year control rates and account for the +13 modified walks over three seasons, Greinke's expected BB% comes out to 6.5%. Applying this to Greinke's 948 xTBF figure, we get an expected modified walk rate total—ignoring the change in leagues—of 61.8. Alternatively, Greinke's expected BB/9 is 2.53. Derek Carty's league change research for pitchers indicates that pitchers moving from the AL to the NL largely see their walk rates remain constant, only decreasing by 0.05 walks per nine. Applying this figure, we find a trade-adjusted modified walk total for Greinke of 63.
With an expected mBB in place, we turn finally and optimistically to Greinke's 2010 batted ball distribution to find an expected WHIP using the beta formula for version 2.0 of my xWHIP Calculator (not yet on "public release," but it will be shortly after the new year—until then, you can download xWHIP version 1.4.3 by clicking here).
Last season, Greinke allowed 659 balls in play (BIP) and his batted ball distribution was 117 line drives (17.8 LD%), 303 ground balls (46.0% GB%), and 239 fly balls (36.3% FB%), with 21 infield flies (8.8%). Carty's league change research indicates an AL-to-NL league change for pitchers tends to result in a +0.37% LD% and a +0.33% GB% at the expense of a -0.70% change in FB%. Likewise, there is an expected +0.11% IFFB% at the expense of a -0.11% change in OFFB%. Applying these numbers, we find a new distribution of 119.4 LD, 305.2 GB, 234.4 FB, 20.9 IFFB, and 213.5 OFFB, keeping the BIP total constant.
Plugging these numbers, plus Greinke's expected mBB rate of 63, into the beta version of the xWHIP 2.0 calculator...
...we find an expected WHIP of 1.235. Modify the figure as you see fit based upon the Brewers' prospective defense. The expected innings figure (228) is a new feature of the xWHIP 2.0 calculator, and while it reveals a previous year's (or set of years') defense-independent expected innings total, expected innings is really only relevant in this context for the purpose of determining an expected WHIP. Version 1.4.3 of my xWHIP calculator, which utilizes actual innings (220 here) and is generally pessimistic on individual pitchers, spits out an expected 1.286 WHIP -- still a strong figure. Essentially, a WHIP repeat of last season for Greinke is entirely plausible.
All the above considered, Greinke's expected pitching line for 2011 is something along the lines of: 220 IP, 3.20 ERA, 218 K, 63 mBB, 3.46 K/BB, and a 1.235 WHIP. Oliver is slightly more pessimistic overall, projecting Greinke the Brewer for a 3.49 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K and 55 BB over 218 innings pitched in 2011. Bill James is even more pessimistic, forecasting a 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 193 K to 56 BB over 222 IP. Both Oliver and Bill James forecast 13 wins, but I'm willing to go closer to 16 provided the Brewers do not disassemble their team come July.
No matter whether you believe my projections, Oliver's or Bill James', Greinke's prospective 2011 numbers seem solid. Given his WHIP upside, the trade to the Brewers bumps him up from No. 22 on my starting pitchers list to No. 13, ahead of Jered Weaver, Max Scherzer, and Cole Hamels, but behind Francisco Liriano.
Greinke has gone from an overrated fantasy asset to a potentially break-even investment, which is what you look for in your high-bid, early-round studs. Others are likely to take note of Greinke's propensity for greater things in 2011, but if you can get him outside the top 50 names picked off the board, you might be in a good position, like the Brewers, with your ace.
Duly noting that "Greinke the Yankee" would have been an infinitely better title, a question lingers as the dust from the most recent "blockbuster" trade settles: how valuable is Zack Greinke now that he is in the NL (Central)? That is the topic of today's conversation.
Before we look at Greinke's prospective 2011, let's look at his past and his pre-trade expectations.
Drafted with the sixth overall pick in 2002, Zack Greinke has been many things in his brief major league career. He was a stud prospect who played in the Futures Game (then again, so did Neil Cotts...) and was touted highly by Baseball America. Rushed to the majors, he pitched relatively well in 2004, logging a 3.97 ERA (4.28 xFIP), a 1.17 WHIP, and 6.21 strikeouts per nine innings over 145 innings as a rookie.
Greinke was also a "bust" in 2005, pitching 183 innings of 5.80 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, 5.61 K/9 baseball. The young hurler then walked away from baseball in 2006 with depression and anxiety issues, only to return in a primarily-relief role in 2007. He was successful on the surface (3.69 ERA), but his 45.5% flyball percentage overall and 4.28 xFIP indicated that he may have been pitching a bit over his head. As a starter in 2007, Greinke logged a 3.80 ERA, but his 6.68 K/9 and 4.69 xFIP were well below the quality of his numbers as a reliable reliever (9.28 K/9, 3.77 xFIP). At this point in his career he barely whelmed Royals fans.
Then, in 2008, Greinke took his first big step forward. As a full-time starter, he struck out 183 batters (8.14 K/9) and walked a mere 56 hitters (2.49 BB/9) over the course of 202.1 strong innings for the Royals (3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). His peripherals were also strong, as he logged a career-best 3.76 xFIP and 3.77 tERA with a much stronger groundball showing (42.7%) than he had ever posted prior. His 3.47 ERA that season was the lowest ERA logged by a full-time Royals starter in 11 years and Dayton "trust the process" Moore rewarded Greinke with a ridiculously team-friendly, four-year, $38 million contract that bought out the rest of Greinke's arbitration years plus two free agency years.
2009, however, was Greinke's breakout season. Fantasy owners who took a shining to him and put stock in his 2008 showing were greatly rewarded with fantasy and surface statistics which, like Tim Lincecum, matched his underlying peripherals. By season end, Greinke "only" accumulated 16 wins (because the Royals offense was truly terrible that season), but he tossed 229.1 strong innings of 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP baseball with 242 strikeouts to a meager 51 walks (4.75 K/BB, second to only Roy Halladay's 5.94 mark in the AL).
His peripherals were just as solid as his fantasy numbers: 9.50 K/9, career best 9.9 Swinging-Strike Percentage (SwStr%), 2.00 BB/9, 0.99 GB/FB ratio, 3.15 xFIP, 2.33 FIP, 2.59 tERA. Baseball Monster ranked Greinke as the second-most-valuable fantasy player of 2009 for rotisserie leagues, behind only Albert Pujols. In terms of value per outing, he ranked fourth (per Baseball Monster), behind only Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, and Chris Carpenter.
Given Greinke's 2009, 2010 was a slight disappointment. His career-best groundball showing (46.0%) was offset by a huge step back in the strikeouts column (7.40 K/9, 7.5% SwStr%) and a little regression with the free passes (2.25 BB/9). While still a strong pitcher (his numbers were on par with the peripherals of Ricky Romero, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw and C.C. Sabathia), the Royal's truly terrible combination of awful defense (-45.5 team fielding runs) and no hitting ability (-8.2 team batting runs) led to lackluster numbers on Greinke's end: 4.17 ERA and 10 wins to 14 losses. But hey, his 1.25 WHIP was still solid.
Heading into 2011, Greinke had been the center of a lot of trade rumors this offseason and with good reason, too. He was clearly the best available pitcher on the market, and if CC Sabathia does not opt out of his contract with the Yankees following the 2011 season, the best free-agent pitcher on the market next off-season will likely be a battle of Number Twos between Ryan Dempster (who will be 35 years old), Hiroki Kuroda (37 years old), Javier Vazquez (35 years old) and Wandy Rodriguez (33 years old) if the Astros do not extend him.
Greinke, only 27 right now, is affordable (two-years, $27 million), imposes minimum health risk (no history of physical injury, only a two-year commitment), and will likely end up with Type-A status and therefore net his employer some prospects in 2013 if deemed too expensive to extend long term. Victor Wang's free agent compensation valuation research and some number manipulation courtesy of Sky Kaulkman reveals that "the average Type-A compensation package averages around $5.5M in value." Accordingly, Greinke's expected "cost" (ignoring the offset of prospects traded for him) is only $21.5 million over the next two seasons.
Using a $5 million rate per win commensurate with this offseason's spending by teams, he would only need to be worth a cumulative +4.3 WAR over the next two seasons, or about +2.2 WAR per season, to be worth his salary. Greinke has been worth at least that per Fangraphs' WAR valuation (FIP-focused) every year that he has pitched in the major leagues except 2006, where he logged a mere 6.1 innings.
Noting this, you can understand why, in real life, a team like the Brewers would want to acquire Greinke, especially with Prince Fielder most likely leaving and the other established major league talent on the roster (Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, etc.) getting more expensive and ever closer to free agency. This trade by the Brewers, along with the Shaun Marcum deal, is a clear win-now-and-next-year move. But I digress.
Prior to the trade, Greinke was positioned at No. 22 in my top 100 starting pitcher rankings (to be released in January). The perpetually poor defensive posture of the Royals, the failure of Dayton Moore to convincingly upgrade the offense, and the recent influx of hitting talent to the AL Central (Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Tsuyoshi Nishioka) kept me from green lighting dollar allocation commensurate with another 2009 or relatively elite season, irrespective of Greinke's pitching abilities. On the Royals, he was pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an 8.0ish K/9. Strong numbers, but Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos, Chad Billingsley or even Shaun Marcum may be safer choices.
The move to the NL (and the NL central, no less) changes everything, however, and a reassessment is necessary. This background set, let's move to the post-trade analysis.
Before forecasting Greinke's 2011, it is necessary to settle upon a baseline set of numbers to massage into a rough projection. Let's start with the strikeout rate. Since returning to his role as a full-time starter in 2008, Greinke has posted Swinging-Strike rates of 9.3%, 9.9%, and 7.5%. The major league average is around 8.5%. Greinke's K% (the major league average is 17.2%) and K/9 over this period closely track the changes in SwStr%: 21.5% (8.14 K/9), 26.4% (9.50 K/9), 19.7% (7.40 K/9).
What caused Greinke's change in whiffs is difficult to pin down. Perhaps it was a matter of pitch selection and pitch quality. A quick glance at the pitch values and usages on Fangraphs indicates that Greinke was utilizing a slightly-above-average curveball 12% of the time in 2009 and 14.3% in 2009. In 2010, the curveball was a below average pitch, which he only utilized 10% of the time.
Greinke also turned to his best pitch, the slider, less often in 2010. Whereas he went to a slider (worth more than +2.3 runs per 100 times thrown in each of 2008, 2009, and 2010) 18.8% of the time in 2008 and 20.2% of the time in 2009, Greinke's usage percentage dropped to 15.5% in 2010.
This decreased usage of sliders and curveballs manifested in the form of increased changeup usage, who tossed the pitch 13.0% of the time last year after throwing it only 7.7% of the time in 2008 and 6.1% of the time in 2009. The changeup is by far and away Greinke's worst pitch in his four-pitch arsenel. At a pitch value of -0.87 runs per 100 times thrown over the course his career, the changeup is Greinke's only distinctively below-average pitch.
While pitch classification is an inexact science, these usage changes of greater than five percent seem to indicate something. What, if anything, is difficult to say, especially if the numbers are just changes in the classification algorithms. I will defer to others, who are warmly welcomed to constructively explain/criticize the data in the comments, to make the qualitative judgments. The primary concern here is to identify possible explanations for Greinke's strikeout fluctuations.
Greinke's strikeout stuff, be it by luck or modifications in pitch selection or something else, should rebound somewhat in 2011. As noted above, in the AL his expected K/9 was around 8%. Using Greinke's 2008 (21.5% K%) as a rebounding point, let's move on to projecting an innings total and an expected batters-faced figure.
Greinke has logged 200+ innings each of the past three seasons as the Royals' ace. Assuming he is anointed the Brewers' ace and routinely gets the standard four days of rest treatment (a lofty assumption in light of the Brewers' desperate usage of C.C. Sabathia in 2008), a 162-game schedule would give Greinke 33 prospective starting opportunities. Given that he has started 98 games over the past three seasons, 33 games started seems like a fair starting projection.
Over the past three seasons, Greinke has average 6.2 innings per outing. Keeping this figure constant and applying it to his 33 expected games started, we get an expected innings total baseline of 220. As noted last month in my Ted Lilly analysis, "an average of 4.31 batters have come to the plate per inning" over the past three seasons. Applying this rate to our 220 innings baseline for Greinke, we get an expected total batters faced (xTBF) figure of approximately 948.
Taking Greinke's xTBF of 948 and applying his 2008 strikeout rate (21.5%), we find that his expected strikeout total for 2011 would have been 204, for a K/9 of 8.35, had he remained with the Royals. Greinke was traded to the Brewers, however, and facing a pitcher every ninth batter rather than a DH clearly has an impact on a pitcher's strikeout rate.
According to Derek Carty's research from two years ago, pitchers switching from the AL to the NL tend to see a +0.57 increase in their K/9. Applying that figure to Greinke's expected mark had he stuck with the Royals (8.35), we find a new expected K/9 of approximately 8.92. This would raise Greinke's strikeout total from 204 to 218 over the course of 220 innings pitched.
Next, we need an ERA baseline to manipulate. Greinke's golden 2009 was book-ended by two seasons of 3.76 xFIPS, with tERAs of 3.77 and 3.51 in 2008 and 2010, respectively. Given Greinke's career ERA of 3.82, let's semi-arbitrarily settle upon a 3.65 ERA as the baseline for this analysis. That accounts for the likelihood of his "true talent" being around 3.76 with a realization that 3.76 might be a bit of an undersell. Over the course of 220 innings pitched, a 3.65 ERA would approximate into 89.2 total runs allowed (RA).
First accounting for a change in league per Derek Carty's league changing research for pitchers, an AL-to-NL switch for pitchers tends to subtract 0.42 runs per nine off a pitcher's bottom line ERA. Over the course of 220 innings, that 0.42 runs per nine translates into approximately 10.3 fewer runs allowed. Subtracting this figure off of Greinke's baseline RA total, we find a new NL-adjusted expected RA total of 78.9.
Next, we need to adjust for park figures. According to Baseball-Reference.com's multi-year park factor data, Miller Park surprisingly depresses offense by about 4 percent. Multiplying Greinke's NL-adjusted expected RA figure by 0.98 (as the Brewers only play half of their games at home), we get a new league-and-park-adjusted RA total of 77.3. That figure would approximate into an ERA of 3.16.
The next step in the expected ERA analysis is quite tricky. As noted in my Ted Lilly analysis:
Figuring out the defensive adjustment for the Dodgers in 2011 is a less exact process than the park factor adjustment. Mathematically speaking, you take the team's cumulative UZR and divide it by the team's total innings played in the field and then multiply by the individual pitcher's expected innings total. You then subtract this number (which will either be negative or positive, depending on the quality of the team defense) from the pitcher's adjusted runs allowed. Simple, right?
Not exactly. This formulation of defensive adjustment makes several assumptions which are not true. Dave Cameron recently explained in detail the problems of measuring defense as it applies to a pitcher's value in a two-part post on Fangraphs. There are two primary problems:
First, not all pitchers will get equal defense. Defense measures a total of groundball, line drive and flyball fielding ability. Not all players have an equal distribution of fielding talent between all types of fielding scenarios. A groundball pitcher will probably not get the same level of defense as a flyball pitcher.
Second, this defensive adjustment approach assumes that a team's cumulative UZR in a season reflects that team's true defensive ability. This is incorrect for three reasons: roster turnover, the unpredictable distribution of fielder playing time (especially in the NL, where player substitutions define the predominant late-game strategy), and the unreliability of single-season fielding data.
As should be obvious by the above quote, applying defensive adjustments to pitchers is highly inaccurate. Given this and the Brewer's largely average defense last season (-4.7 team fielding runs) and returning cast of characters, minus Jim Edmonds and his +7.0 UZR glove in 2010, let's leave Greinke's league-and-park-adjusted RA total of 77.3 largely untouched. Feel free to apply a defensive adjustment as you see appropriate, but for the purposes of this analysis, we are merely going to round out Greinke's expected ERA to 3.20.
With a strikeout rate/total and expected ERA in place, we turn finally to Greinke's prospective WHIP and walk rate. His walk rate over the past three seasons has remained largely stable. His F-Strike% has fluctuated between 61.6% and 62.4%, while walking 56 batters in 2008, 51 batters in 2009 and 55 batters in 2010. Greinke also plunked 15 batters to only two intentional free passes (+13 net modified walks (mBB*)).
*mBB = BB - IBB + HBP
If we smooth out Greinke's three-year control rates and account for the +13 modified walks over three seasons, Greinke's expected BB% comes out to 6.5%. Applying this to Greinke's 948 xTBF figure, we get an expected modified walk rate total—ignoring the change in leagues—of 61.8. Alternatively, Greinke's expected BB/9 is 2.53. Derek Carty's league change research for pitchers indicates that pitchers moving from the AL to the NL largely see their walk rates remain constant, only decreasing by 0.05 walks per nine. Applying this figure, we find a trade-adjusted modified walk total for Greinke of 63.
With an expected mBB in place, we turn finally and optimistically to Greinke's 2010 batted ball distribution to find an expected WHIP using the beta formula for version 2.0 of my xWHIP Calculator (not yet on "public release," but it will be shortly after the new year—until then, you can download xWHIP version 1.4.3 by clicking here).
Last season, Greinke allowed 659 balls in play (BIP) and his batted ball distribution was 117 line drives (17.8 LD%), 303 ground balls (46.0% GB%), and 239 fly balls (36.3% FB%), with 21 infield flies (8.8%). Carty's league change research indicates an AL-to-NL league change for pitchers tends to result in a +0.37% LD% and a +0.33% GB% at the expense of a -0.70% change in FB%. Likewise, there is an expected +0.11% IFFB% at the expense of a -0.11% change in OFFB%. Applying these numbers, we find a new distribution of 119.4 LD, 305.2 GB, 234.4 FB, 20.9 IFFB, and 213.5 OFFB, keeping the BIP total constant.
Plugging these numbers, plus Greinke's expected mBB rate of 63, into the beta version of the xWHIP 2.0 calculator...
...we find an expected WHIP of 1.235. Modify the figure as you see fit based upon the Brewers' prospective defense. The expected innings figure (228) is a new feature of the xWHIP 2.0 calculator, and while it reveals a previous year's (or set of years') defense-independent expected innings total, expected innings is really only relevant in this context for the purpose of determining an expected WHIP. Version 1.4.3 of my xWHIP calculator, which utilizes actual innings (220 here) and is generally pessimistic on individual pitchers, spits out an expected 1.286 WHIP -- still a strong figure. Essentially, a WHIP repeat of last season for Greinke is entirely plausible.
All the above considered, Greinke's expected pitching line for 2011 is something along the lines of: 220 IP, 3.20 ERA, 218 K, 63 mBB, 3.46 K/BB, and a 1.235 WHIP. Oliver is slightly more pessimistic overall, projecting Greinke the Brewer for a 3.49 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K and 55 BB over 218 innings pitched in 2011. Bill James is even more pessimistic, forecasting a 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 193 K to 56 BB over 222 IP. Both Oliver and Bill James forecast 13 wins, but I'm willing to go closer to 16 provided the Brewers do not disassemble their team come July.
No matter whether you believe my projections, Oliver's or Bill James', Greinke's prospective 2011 numbers seem solid. Given his WHIP upside, the trade to the Brewers bumps him up from No. 22 on my starting pitchers list to No. 13, ahead of Jered Weaver, Max Scherzer, and Cole Hamels, but behind Francisco Liriano.
Greinke has gone from an overrated fantasy asset to a potentially break-even investment, which is what you look for in your high-bid, early-round studs. Others are likely to take note of Greinke's propensity for greater things in 2011, but if you can get him outside the top 50 names picked off the board, you might be in a good position, like the Brewers, with your ace.
FJM: Mike Lombardi On The B.S. Report
Mike Lombardi is an analyst for NFL.com and a friend of Bill Simmons and thus a frequent guest on The B.S. Report. I don't understand how Bill Simmons can be friends with both the founder and creator of Football Outsiders (the leading pioneer in advanced NFL statistics) Aaron Schatz and truly believe what FO says and also listen to the advice of Lombardi. Mike Lomardi is the most vanilla, cliche analysis out there and is just one step above Trent Dilfer who doesn't even believe in statistics. Sidenote: why is it the worst QB ever to win a Superbowl is the guy who doesn't believe in stats?
Anyways, I'm like a week or two behind on my B.S. Report's and I was recently listening to a podcast where Simmons and Lombardi were talking about the Bears/Jets game. Now since this game already happened before I started listening to the podcast, I was very upset at what I was listening to. Let me share some excerpts from the podcast with you.
Mind you, the Bears won this game 38-34
"Lovely Matt, what did you do today?"
"Well, I just ran for 113 yards on 19 carries which is good for a 5.9 yards per carry. Plus, I had a great rushing touchdown run"
"Oh, that's just lovely dear, can I take your hat? I think we just found a new resting place for it"
You commonplace dumb piece of shit Mike Lombardi. You can't keep spitting out platitudes and then wonder why you keep wiping egg off of your face every week. But I thank your stupidity for giving me a chance to laugh at you. And you were SOOOOOO confident the Jets were going to win this game too.
Anyways, I'm like a week or two behind on my B.S. Report's and I was recently listening to a podcast where Simmons and Lombardi were talking about the Bears/Jets game. Now since this game already happened before I started listening to the podcast, I was very upset at what I was listening to. Let me share some excerpts from the podcast with you.
Mind you, the Bears won this game 38-34
Mike Lombardi: I don't see how the Jets lose this game.Are you now blind Mike Lombardi? Seriously though, the Bears are a good team, they were fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and this game was being played IN Chicago, yet there was NO WAY you could see the Bears lose!? What!
This is a bad match up for the Bears because the Bears can't really block all this pressure stuffWhat is "pressure stuff"? What are you, the new marketing director for Oreos? Kids, come out and try our new Pressure Stuffed Oreos!
and the more pressure stuff the more Jay Cutler will turn the ball overHe ain't the best analyst in the biz for nothing folks. Bringing you top quality analysis like, "the more pressure a defense gets on a quarterback, the harder it is for the quarterback to be effective". Thank you Mike Lombardi for graduating from elementary school and watching the NFL for at least one full season. By the way, way to not actually watch Jay Cutler since Chicago's bye and realize he's not the turnover machine he was last year. Cutler only had one turnover this game.
not that I think the Bears can't play good defenseWhat!? The team that has the 3rd best scoring defense coming into this game has the possibility of playing good defense? Again, top notch stuff Lombardi, top notch. And just to pile more shit on Lombardi, the Bears played horrific defense this game.
I mean the Bears have to try and win this game in the teens, 16-13, but I think the Bears offense will make a mistake.Yep, a real low scoring game. A real doozy of a tilt we had goin' on up in herrr. Also, more nonsense, cliche dribble like the Bears are automatically going to turn it over.
The Bears don't have anything they can hang their hat on, they don't have a great running game"Honey I'm home"
"Lovely Matt, what did you do today?"
"Well, I just ran for 113 yards on 19 carries which is good for a 5.9 yards per carry. Plus, I had a great rushing touchdown run"
"Oh, that's just lovely dear, can I take your hat? I think we just found a new resting place for it"
and the more they throw the less, more opportunity they have to pass.ENGLISH MOTHAFUCKA! Do you speak it?
I think the Jets can go in there, they're good on the road, they kind of have a mutter type mentalityWhat does "mutter" mean? I can make up words and intangibles too! "The Bears have a strongforce, grittering type of style that is the reason they win games."
and I think they can play enough defense against a bad offense. They usually shut down bad offenses and I'm not sure the Bears have a great offense.Yeah, keep shitting on this offense some more and they'll go laugh when the scoreboard reads that they have more points than their opponent.
Bill Simmons: The Bears are not a team that is equipped to drop 35 pointsWith the exception of this game where the Bears put up 38 points. Oh and the game before where they put up 40.
M.L.: And they're not going to be able to handle all the pressure stuff, the overloads.Quick! Somebody call the Manning brothers and get this man a cookie stat! He's hungry!
Not that Mike Martz won't know how to block it but Mike Martz will have a hard time getting it done because they can't block, the right tackle's a liability, the left guard's a liability, those are problems.Because it's not like Mike Martz isn't an above average offensive coordinator or anything and it's not like he (a) doesn't make adjustments during games and (b) hasn't been making adjustments during games all season long.
You commonplace dumb piece of shit Mike Lombardi. You can't keep spitting out platitudes and then wonder why you keep wiping egg off of your face every week. But I thank your stupidity for giving me a chance to laugh at you. And you were SOOOOOO confident the Jets were going to win this game too.
Game Of Inches Football Results: Week Sixteen
Pigskin Pick 'Em
1) Sexy Rexy
Overall: 157-83
Last Week: 9-7
Clutch Games: Green Bay over New York (N), Detroit over Miami
WTF Games: Oakland over Indianapolis, Atlanta over New Orleans
2) The 'Bright' One
Overall: 155-85
Last Week: 9-7
Clutch Games: N/A
WTF Games: N/A
3) Cubsfan4evr1
Overall: 140-100
Last Week: 8-8
Clutch Games: Detroit over Miami
WTF Games: Tennessee over Kansas City, Seattle over Tampa Bay
I'm going to claim that I won this contest no matter what happens in Week 17. Let's be honest, there's a reason most fantasy leagues have their championship game in Week 16. Teams rest their players and the outcome of most of these games don't matter to a lot of teams. Picking Week 17 games is like picking pre season games.
Therefore, congratulations to Sexy Rexy on the wonderful win.
Game Of Inches Fantasy Football League
First Place: Swag On
Second Place: St1fe5
Third Place: The 'Bright' One
1) Sexy Rexy
Overall: 157-83
Last Week: 9-7
Clutch Games: Green Bay over New York (N), Detroit over Miami
WTF Games: Oakland over Indianapolis, Atlanta over New Orleans
2) The 'Bright' One
Overall: 155-85
Last Week: 9-7
Clutch Games: N/A
WTF Games: N/A
3) Cubsfan4evr1
Overall: 140-100
Last Week: 8-8
Clutch Games: Detroit over Miami
WTF Games: Tennessee over Kansas City, Seattle over Tampa Bay
I'm going to claim that I won this contest no matter what happens in Week 17. Let's be honest, there's a reason most fantasy leagues have their championship game in Week 16. Teams rest their players and the outcome of most of these games don't matter to a lot of teams. Picking Week 17 games is like picking pre season games.
Therefore, congratulations to Sexy Rexy on the wonderful win.
Game Of Inches Fantasy Football League
First Place: Swag On
Second Place: St1fe5
Third Place: The 'Bright' One
Box Score Tonight: Week Sixteen/ Night Games Edition
We'll begin just as soon as I stop celebrating from the fact that the Bears get a first round bye. One of the few, if not the only times I will say this, "Thank You Minnesota Vikings"
But first, we'll begin with the Monday Night Football game
- Matty Ice! Oh wait. Sad trombone wah, wah. Matt Ryan had only lost one game at home before MNF. Now he has two as the New Orleans Saints defeat the Atlanta Falcons 17-14. I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler was the first of those 2 loses.
- Instead of watching this game I went and saw The Fighter. After hearing the end of the game on the radio and seeing the highlights/ box score, I still don't regret my decision. Although what a great MNF game, huh?
- Illinois Jerk Off Alert- Pierre Thomas: 19 carries, 63 yards (3.3 YPC), TD, 7 catches/targets, 39 receiving yards. Devery Henderson, Julius Jones, Reggie Bush, and Drew Brees each get one carry.
- Drew Brees is still having interception problems this year which is why I've been downgrading him but I think it's safe to say he was not affected by the Madden curse. Some of the interceptions he made (especially the shovel pass one) were truly horrendous and even Jay Cutler is looking at those passes and thinking, "What the hell was that!?". But Brees comes back and wins the game. His final numbers: 71% completion percentage, 302 yards, 1/2 TD/INT ratio, below average 77.1 passer rating.
- Normally the only New Orleans wide out you can trust is Marques Colston. Well not this week. Colston's numbers: 2/5, 21 yards. This week was the Robert Meachum show. His numbers on the day: 10 receptions (13 targets), 101 yards.
- Jimmy Graham gets Brees' lone TD and outside of Thomas and Meachum, no receiver caught more than 4 passes.
- Matty Ice fails. I still don't like him and I don't think my hatred of him is as irrational as my Eli Manning hate but it's games like these that give me justification to not like Ryan. After the Saints took the lead, Ryan and the Falcons had a chance to at least tie the game and didn't. After a great Ryan run, the Falcons go three and out, punt the ball, and never see it again. So much for being that great comeback kid leader. His final, pedestrian numbers: 52% completion percentage, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 77.9 passer rating.
- There's a legitimate argument to be made why Ryan is a Pro Bowler this year, but not ahead of Vick and Brees (who made it) and Aaron Rodgers (who did not).
- Speaking of Pro Bowlers, Michael "The Burner" Turner deserved to be one of them (by default). I'm convinced the way Turner has played this year that if Ryan Grant was healthy, I would have lost my bet to Cubsfan4evr1 that Turner would be the better fantasy back. His final, pedestrian numbers: 17 carries, 48 yards (2.8 YPC). Matt Ryan (4) had more carries than Jason Snelling (1).
- Roddy White acts like the Pro Bowl starter that he his and he is hands down the best wide out in the NFC this year. His numbers on MNF: 3/5, 41 yards, TD. OK, those don't scream Pro Bowl, but he's had a great great great year. I'm eagerly awaiting Cubsfan's comments about how he also loves White.
- Michael Jenkins has quietly been a darn good receiver this year. He put up numbers eerily similar to White on Monday night. All right. That rhymes. 5/9, 40 yards. OK, maybe not THAT eerily.
- Thank you thank you thank you Joe Webb and the Minnesota Vikings for defeating the Eagles in Philadelphia 24-14 on Tuesday night. Hey, that's what you get when you act like pussies and don't play in the snow. Not my words but Philly's mayors words. I know Philadelphia fans are the biggest cunts in sports, but when your own city's mayor is calling you "pussies"!? I mean, come on.
- Joe Webb (87.8) has a better QB rating than Michael Vick (74.1). Webb doesn't have an interception, but he doesn't get a passing TD either. But he did get a rushing TD. So did Vick. Vick had one TD and interception and got 63 rushing yards on 8 "carries". On the Twitter, analysts are claiming that this game just lost Vick the MVP. That may be going a bit too far but wouldn't surprise me either. I honestly don't know who I think the MVP should be and I would not be upset if either Vick or Tom Brady won it.
- All Day's numbers on the day: 118 yards in 22 carries (5.4 YPC). If LeSean McCoy (44 yards on 13 carries (3.4 YPC), 4/5, 41 receiving yards) is getting screwed out of a Pro Bowl birth and obviously won't start, then AD needs to be the Pro Bowl starter. Those two guys are the clear cut top two backs in the NFC this year. Fuck Michael Turner.
- Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson led all receivers in this game with 12 targets. Celek catches 10 of them for 97 yards. On the other hand, Jackson only catches two of them for 32 yards. Let me repeat that because I don't know if that sunk in, DeSean Jackson gets TWELVE targets and only catches TWO passes. How does DeSean Jackson get 12 targets and NOT get 200+ receiving yards!?
- Percy Harvin's migraines take a break as he catches 7 out of his 8 targets for 100 yards on the button. Let's hope the NFL doesn't take one of those yards back a la Rashard Mendenhall last week. Sidney Rice only catches one of his 5 targets for 16 yards. It's a sad state of affairs when you have as many receiving yards as Bernard Berrian. It's even sadder when Berrian has more catches and less targets than you while doing it.
DONE!
Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads.
But first, we'll begin with the Monday Night Football game
- Matty Ice! Oh wait. Sad trombone wah, wah. Matt Ryan had only lost one game at home before MNF. Now he has two as the New Orleans Saints defeat the Atlanta Falcons 17-14. I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler was the first of those 2 loses.
- Instead of watching this game I went and saw The Fighter. After hearing the end of the game on the radio and seeing the highlights/ box score, I still don't regret my decision. Although what a great MNF game, huh?
- Illinois Jerk Off Alert- Pierre Thomas: 19 carries, 63 yards (3.3 YPC), TD, 7 catches/targets, 39 receiving yards. Devery Henderson, Julius Jones, Reggie Bush, and Drew Brees each get one carry.
- Drew Brees is still having interception problems this year which is why I've been downgrading him but I think it's safe to say he was not affected by the Madden curse. Some of the interceptions he made (especially the shovel pass one) were truly horrendous and even Jay Cutler is looking at those passes and thinking, "What the hell was that!?". But Brees comes back and wins the game. His final numbers: 71% completion percentage, 302 yards, 1/2 TD/INT ratio, below average 77.1 passer rating.
- Normally the only New Orleans wide out you can trust is Marques Colston. Well not this week. Colston's numbers: 2/5, 21 yards. This week was the Robert Meachum show. His numbers on the day: 10 receptions (13 targets), 101 yards.
- Jimmy Graham gets Brees' lone TD and outside of Thomas and Meachum, no receiver caught more than 4 passes.
- Matty Ice fails. I still don't like him and I don't think my hatred of him is as irrational as my Eli Manning hate but it's games like these that give me justification to not like Ryan. After the Saints took the lead, Ryan and the Falcons had a chance to at least tie the game and didn't. After a great Ryan run, the Falcons go three and out, punt the ball, and never see it again. So much for being that great comeback kid leader. His final, pedestrian numbers: 52% completion percentage, 148 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 77.9 passer rating.
- There's a legitimate argument to be made why Ryan is a Pro Bowler this year, but not ahead of Vick and Brees (who made it) and Aaron Rodgers (who did not).
- Speaking of Pro Bowlers, Michael "The Burner" Turner deserved to be one of them (by default). I'm convinced the way Turner has played this year that if Ryan Grant was healthy, I would have lost my bet to Cubsfan4evr1 that Turner would be the better fantasy back. His final, pedestrian numbers: 17 carries, 48 yards (2.8 YPC). Matt Ryan (4) had more carries than Jason Snelling (1).
- Roddy White acts like the Pro Bowl starter that he his and he is hands down the best wide out in the NFC this year. His numbers on MNF: 3/5, 41 yards, TD. OK, those don't scream Pro Bowl, but he's had a great great great year. I'm eagerly awaiting Cubsfan's comments about how he also loves White.
- Michael Jenkins has quietly been a darn good receiver this year. He put up numbers eerily similar to White on Monday night. All right. That rhymes. 5/9, 40 yards. OK, maybe not THAT eerily.
- Thank you thank you thank you Joe Webb and the Minnesota Vikings for defeating the Eagles in Philadelphia 24-14 on Tuesday night. Hey, that's what you get when you act like pussies and don't play in the snow. Not my words but Philly's mayors words. I know Philadelphia fans are the biggest cunts in sports, but when your own city's mayor is calling you "pussies"!? I mean, come on.
- Joe Webb (87.8) has a better QB rating than Michael Vick (74.1). Webb doesn't have an interception, but he doesn't get a passing TD either. But he did get a rushing TD. So did Vick. Vick had one TD and interception and got 63 rushing yards on 8 "carries". On the Twitter, analysts are claiming that this game just lost Vick the MVP. That may be going a bit too far but wouldn't surprise me either. I honestly don't know who I think the MVP should be and I would not be upset if either Vick or Tom Brady won it.
- All Day's numbers on the day: 118 yards in 22 carries (5.4 YPC). If LeSean McCoy (44 yards on 13 carries (3.4 YPC), 4/5, 41 receiving yards) is getting screwed out of a Pro Bowl birth and obviously won't start, then AD needs to be the Pro Bowl starter. Those two guys are the clear cut top two backs in the NFC this year. Fuck Michael Turner.
- Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson led all receivers in this game with 12 targets. Celek catches 10 of them for 97 yards. On the other hand, Jackson only catches two of them for 32 yards. Let me repeat that because I don't know if that sunk in, DeSean Jackson gets TWELVE targets and only catches TWO passes. How does DeSean Jackson get 12 targets and NOT get 200+ receiving yards!?
- Percy Harvin's migraines take a break as he catches 7 out of his 8 targets for 100 yards on the button. Let's hope the NFL doesn't take one of those yards back a la Rashard Mendenhall last week. Sidney Rice only catches one of his 5 targets for 16 yards. It's a sad state of affairs when you have as many receiving yards as Bernard Berrian. It's even sadder when Berrian has more catches and less targets than you while doing it.
DONE!
Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads.
