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Saturday, December 20, 2008

DeAngelo WIlliams for MVP! No Seriously, I Swear.

The first string running back for the Carolina Panthers, DeAngelo Williams, deserves to be the 2008/2009 NFL MVP. This is not a joke article. I mean this from the bottom of my heart. He deserves to be MVP like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have before him, not like Kerry Collins does this year. Honestly. Don't believe me, well then read on. But before I explain myself, first let me discuss which positions deserve to even be considered for MVP. These positions are quarterbacks and running backs. These are the only two positions can not only affect the game, but can determine the outcome. As much as I love a good defensive battle, it is a very rare occasion that a defensive player should be the MVP. The thing about even great, HOF worthy defensive players, is that they can be ignored. Now, you will most certianly have to take them into account, but they can be ignored. If you're offensive is playing against a great DE, then you roll out to the opposite side of the field. Or let go of the ball early. But they can, for the most part, be ignored. Plus, it's the defense as a whole that determines how well an offense does, and not one individual player. If a defenisve player, in some capacity is never be ignored on EVERY SINGLE PLAY, then they definitely deserve MVP recognition. But the same reason picthers don't get MVP recognition because they only pitch every five days, also applies in a similiar logistical fashion to defesnive players.

But QBs and RBs CAN NOT be ignored. They can not be ignored because they have the ball on every single play. Because the ball is snapped for the QB to throw to a player or handed off the the RB like every other play, these players can not be ignored. You simple have to at least account for the position on every play of every drive. Plus, these are the two positions most likely to score. Next, in order to be considered for MVP, you have to deserve to start in the pro bowl. Because if you're not good enough to start in the pro bowl, the best of the best, you don't deserve to be the MVP. And based off of a previous blog post, I have already done this. For the NFC, the starters are Tony Romo (QB- DAL) and DeAngelo Williams (RB- CAR). For the AFC, Phillip Rivers (QB- SDG) and Chris Williams (RB- TEN). After narrowing down this list to four we must first do this further to only two. You can do this by looking at DVOA. As Football Outsiders puts it, "DVOA [is]... Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average [player] in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense" This is essentially the defintion of "valuable". The same way VORP is essentially a definition of valuable to baseball, DVOA is a defintion of valuable to football. So when determining the most VALUABLE player, one should probably look to see if a player has the most value. DeAngelo Willaims is first among RBs in DVOA so he beats out Chris Johnson who is only 12th. Philip Rivers, who is 4th in DVOA, beats out Tony Romo, who is 6th.

So now it is between Philip Rivers and DeAngelo Williams. Now this is where things get tricky because how do you compare who is better, a RB or a QB? Well you can't really. But I'm saying Williams just because he is the very best at his position compared to Rivers who is just really really good. Now if Rivers was also #1 then I'd say it's a crapshoot and you could pick either one. But because it's not, DeAngelo Williams deserves to be the MVP.

Let's take a brief look at his numbers. He's first in the league with 5.5 YPC (with a significant amount of touches, 224), 4th overall in YPG with 87.8 (but he also has much less carries than the top 3), 2nd overall in TDs with 14, 2 receiving TDs, 4th overall in total yards, has ZERO fumbles, 3rd in DYAR, plays in front of only the 8th best running offensive line (granted it's good but not MVP great), and of course, is first in DVOA. It is for these reasons that not only was DeAngelo Williams a HUGE pro snub but he also deserves to be NFL MVP.

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