Random

While writing my Dunn article, I came across this website which analyzes a team's statistics and spits out historical-data-based projections based on lineup ordering and each player's OBP (OBA) and SLG. Just for shits and giggles, I typed in the Chicago Cubs 2008 AL roster (using the teams nine most used players in the calculations) -- I was unable use the NL roster because the same pitcher doesn't bat every game and I wanted to maximize realism based on sample sizes -- and this is what I found.

The ideal batting lineup (in the AL) would have been:
1. Theriot
2. Edmonds
3. DeRo
4. Ramirez
5. Soto
6. Lee
7. Johnson
8. Soriano
9. Fukudome

This team, on average, would produce 5.922 runs-per-game (RPG). Three other teams would have been equally productive, with similar lineups. However, something that remains noticibly consistant between permutations is that 1) Soriano should be batting (according to this data) in the #8 spot, while Ramirez should be (and rightfully is) batting in the #4 slot. Most combinations also have Edmonds batting #2 and Soto #3.

Given all possible permutations, however, the team's overall RPG average was calculated to be 5.761. This would have yielded a grand total of approx. 919 runs.

In reality, the Cubs "only" scored 855 runs (while giving up 671).

Once you factor in the fact that a pitcher hit in the #9 hole (as opposed to Reed Johnson or Fukudome) and that the team used much more than nine offensive players, the predictive figure doesn't seem to be too far "off the mark" of what the Cubs actually produced. I think it's clear that, like any other team in the NL, the Cubs would have been a better offensive team in the AL, but that there is some untapped potential for 2009.

The lineup in 2008, as I often complained, wasn't being maximized.