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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

I guess we can cancel the baseball season now

Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus has come out with his win-loss predictions for the upcoming season. Considering he was dead on the money in predicting electoral college votes during the national election, I think we can simply bypass the regular season and jump straight into the division series. Looks like it will be the Braves sweeping the Cubs this year

American League, ranked by projected 2009 record

East



W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Boston Red Sox



98 64 864 684 .269 .347 .433
New York Yankees



97 65 838 674 .267 .341 .424
Tampa Bay Rays



92 70 838 715 .256 .338 .421
Toronto Blue Jays



81 81 730 692 .254 .319 .403
Baltimore Orioles



76 86 858 898 .269 .338 .435
Central



W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Cleveland Indians



84 78 824 819 .260 .337 .423
Minnesota Twins



79 83 769 802 .266 .329 .397
Detroit Tigers



78 84 796 844 .259 .329 .425
Kansas City Royals



75 87 747 813 .263 .323 .407
Chicago White Sox



74 88 763 839 .250 .319 .419
West



W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Oakland Athletics



82 80 799 798 .251 .335 .410
Los Angeles Angels



79 83 738 758 .258 .319 .403
Texas Rangers



73 89 812 912 .263 .328 .432
Seattle Mariners



70 92 725 835 .260 .318 .403

National League, ranked by projected 2009 record

East





W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
New York Mets





93 69 833 713 .264 .339 .417
Atlanta Braves





88 74 818 742 .271 .342 .416
Philadelphia Phillies





88 74 837 756 .264 .337 .431
Washington Nationals





77 85 780 808 .261 .335 .410
Florida Marlins





74 88 767 819 .253 .325 .423
Central





W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Chicago Cubs





95 67 865 751 .271 .346 .433
Milwaukee Brewers





83 79 822 808 .260 .334 .434
St. Louis Cardinals





80 82 776 784 .257 .330 .420
Cincinnati Reds





79 83 779 798 .263 .329 .416
Houston Astros





66 96 708 851 .256 .318 .404
Pittsburgh Pirates





65 97 719 887 .255 .321 .406
West





W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Arizona Diamondbacks





90 72 816 733 .261 .334 .432
Los Angeles Dodgers





84 78 760 741 .265 .331 .397
San Francisco Giants





79 83 703 718 .262 .319 .399
Colorado Rockies





78 84 827 862 .266 .340 .431
San Diego Padres





74 88 706 763 .251 .324 .399
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2 comments:

  1. Adam KaplanFebruary 13, 2009 at 12:38 AM

    I find it hard to believe that with the Angels pitching staff they go under .500 and the Cubs win 95 after giving away a lot of the good players like DeRosa and Wood and not really adding anybody. While I think they're going to win their division, I don't think they'll do it with 95 wins. And the Brewers lose Sheets AND Sabathia and they win 85 games, I doubt it.

    There's something very sketchy about this list.

    Also, Nate Silver used election poll results to predict the winner. Not hard to predict the winner when you ask people how they're going to vote before they vote. In the world of Political Science we consider that cheating

    ReplyDelete
  2. David "MVP" EcksteinFebruary 13, 2009 at 12:52 AM

    You wanna know why? Because DeRosa was replaced by a guy who walks just as much, if not more and Fontenot takes over at 2B, adding comparable power (20 HR potential). So offensively, not a ton is lost. Pitching wise, all that was lost is a top closer, replaced by a second tier closer. This is reflected by a 2-3 WARP downgrade in how the pythag. prediction deflated from 97 to 95 wins.


    The angels, on the other hand, have nobody besides Vlad and Abreu who get on base. Reggie Willits does, but see limited ABs in the OF.


    Brewers win 85 bc the central sucks.

    Also, Sox at the bottom

    ReplyDelete

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