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Sunday, February 8, 2009

See David "MVP" Eckstein, I Can Do This Too!

Here's a section from a recent Jayson Stark "Rumblings and Grumbling" ESPN.com article:

We don't use words like "collusion" lightly at times like this, in a world like this.
But here we go

So somewhere in this column, we're going to search for a different word, a more fitting word, to describe what might be the strangest offseason in modern baseball history.
But my guess is that we’re actually going to talk about free agents and use useless statistics to wonder why these players are still free agents

For the moment, we don't know quite what to call it. But let's just say we're convinced what we've been witnessing hasn't been business as usual.
I don’t know about Jayson Stark, but my guess, I mean as a rational human being who understand baseball a little bit, is that I’m going to call it GM’s just being smart

How far from usual has it all been? Well, we interrupt our national obsession with the continued unemployment of Manny Ramirez for this important announcement:
I mean ESPN’s obsession because the nation just doesn’t give a fuck at this point

It isn't just Manny.
It's just Manny being 36 years old

He has lots of company. Lots and lots and lots.
Or maybe just Adam Dunn and other guys who used to be good or players who I think are good but actually aren't
Want to know how much? Here are some 100-percent factual tidbits that drive home precisely how widespread this free-agent meltdown has been:
Yes these tibits are technically "facts" but there also screwed stats to prove my point

• There were five free agents this winter who drove in at least 100 runs last season. Three of those five are still unemployed (Manny, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu).
Yeah, my guess of using useless stats came true!

• There were four free agents who scored 90 runs or more. Three of those four are still putting the "free" back in free agency (Manny, Abreu and Orlando Cabrera).
OMFG, Orlando Cabrera who spent most of the year in the #1 hole was able to score at least 90 runs, sweet! He must be good if he can score at least 90 runs leading off games and being second in the AL last year with 661 ABs!

• There were 10 free agents who had batting averages over .295. Four of those 10 still don't have jobs (Manny, Orlando Hudson, Mark Grudzielanek and Abreu). And the job held by one of the other six (Sean Casey) is "broadcaster" -- a field he decided to enter because no team apparently thought a guy who hit .322 could play anymore.
Yes, more stats that really don't matter! I mean, fuck those things like walks and on base percentage to go along with that .295 BA

• There were also 10 free agents who had an on-base percentage of .374 or better. Four of those 10 are still looking for work (Manny, Dunn, Ray Durham and Doug Mientkiewicz). And it would be five if we count Casey.
OK, now we're getting somewhere. A player with an OBS of .374 is actually worth a look at.

• There were 13 free agents who hit 20 home runs or more. Five of those 13 are still out there (Dunn, Manny, Abreu, Kevin Millar and Jim Edmonds). And a sixth (Ty Wigginton) didn't sign until two days ago.
Yes, 20 HRs is pretty good but let's not look at things like age, defense, and slugging percentage. Not to mention neither Edmonds, Millar, nor Wigginton were on that list of having a .374 OBS or better

• Finally, want to talk pitching?
I guess Jayson Stark
Five of the 12 free-agent starting pitchers who won 11 games or more don't have teams (six if you count Mike Mussina). Three of the eight who saved 15 games or more are still out of work. And three of the eight starters who had strikeout rates of better than seven whiffs per nine innings are still team-less.
1) When talking about free agents I'm going to make a specific purpose to mention a guy who retired to make my case look better and 2) I'm going to look at wins and saves, two stats that we "ESPN baseball insiders" like to point out so obviously GMs should too

And do we even need to remind you that it's February?
NOPE! Don't worry Jayson Stark, we can read letters and numbers that is on this new invention called a calendar
Or that spring training starts in a week?
But not for everybody

Yet we count 72 players who logged significant time in the big leagues in 2008 who are still out there, wondering where they're going to play -- or whether they're going to play -- in 2009. Yessir. That number was 72.
But really only Adam Dunn and Manny on a short term contract or a long one with little money are TRUELY worth anything

That number is closer to 90 if you count all big-league free agents.
Again, that number is really just two. T-W-O. Ok, you win Jayson Stark, I'll also throw maybe Bobby Abreu in there as well. So three! Not fucking 72 or 90, only fucking 3!
And if you count all unemployed free agents (including minor leaguers, players coming back from injuries or Japan, etc.), there are still well over 100 guys out of work. In the first week of February.
Hey, can I be a free agent as well Jayson with a "Y". Can I be free agent 101?

Amazingly, eight of those players made at least $10 million last season. But now, with a week to go until spring training, none of them has a job.
Oh my god, if a player got paid a lot of money he must have performed well, because no one who makes that much money can suck! Like Carl Pavano!

So how do we explain that, huh?
Again, my explanation is that GMs are not like Steve Stone, they're actually smart and rational
Well, depends on whom you ask. Obviously.
It's CLEARLY obvious but I'm going to point it out anyway

When we raised this topic with Bud Selig a couple of weeks ago, he spent the next half hour reminding us that this was "the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression" -- and concluded: "I'm stunned if anybody thinks that there's something [like collusion] going on [and] doesn't understand what the economy is doing. I really am.
And then Bud Selig shat his pants and died. Oh wait, that's just in my dreams

He isn't the only one. A high-ranking official of one AL team said: "Out of the 30 teams in the sport, 15 are scared to death by this economy. They're scared about ticket sales. They're scared that sponsorships are going to be cutting back. They're just scared."
Like the Yankees, they go out and spend 240 million dollars and then ask for money from NYC

Meanwhile, one NL club official had a more basic explanation. Essentially, he said, it's the agents' faults.
Or the players who just aren't good/are old + GM's being retarded on Adam Dunn

"Everybody predicted this," he said. "All the predictions said this market would be difficult, and these guys just misread it. They didn't take jobs that were offered, and now those jobs aren't there anymore. They had jobs. They didn't take them."
There's some truth to every one of those assessments.
Yes, technically everything I said IS true, just not relevant
Nobody argues that.
But I do want to argue against some of the basis for why you made these true statements
But is there more going on here than the struggling economy, the fear it's generated and the misjudgments made by individual agents and players?
Or misjudgments made by baseball analysts and those who create media and sports hype. But I'm just guessing


There's more to this article, but it's REALLY long and if the rest of the article is like the first part then I'm going to have an aneurysm and die

6 comments:

  1. casey had 199 at-bats last year and no home runs. thats why he retired, not the "market"

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  2. There are still quite a few good freee agnts availabile though. Such as Mayy Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Randy Wolf, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson, and Mark Grudzielanek. The economy is the only reason and they6 want too much for their value.

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  3. Only Manny and Dunn, and maybe even Abreu depending on the contract and even worth anything.

    Yes you can get some value from people like Gudzy and OC but it's not like it's some huge surprise that they're free agents. Their not THAT good

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  4. It is a surprise that Orlando Cabrera and Mark Grudzielanek are free agents. There not amazing, but above average. They would be upgrades for many teams. Mark Grudzielanek is a bargain price. He never gets paid a lot and worth his contract. Orlando Cabrera plays gold glove defense and can hit decently. Considering the deal Cesar Izturis got for a two year Orlando Cabrera is much better.

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  5. ehhh! Wrong, friendo. O-Cabs is MUCH worse defensively than Izturis. Ocabs only has his gloves b/c he bitches to the official scorer between innings when he gets charged with an error and demands it be overturned.

    ReplyDelete

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