Does no one remember Jake Peavy? Following the added workload of the WBC, Peavy's ERA went up by 42%, his walks went up by 25% and his home run rate increased by 28%. He went from being 34% above league average in terms of his ERA to 1% below.
Looking deeper into the stats, we find that Peavy's BABIP was a bit high (.316), which clearly accounted for the 15% increase in hits between 2005 and 2006, while his HR/FB rate remained constant. However, this all happened to coincide with Peavy's 6% decline in groundballs and 8.1% increase in FB's, which led to an increased homerun rate and FIP increased of 21%.
All and all, it seems like Peavy's number were probably affected by some combination of luck and/or fatigue. While Peavy's most of peripherals remained relatively constant, his control was clearly affected by some measure -- and walks tend to be relatively luck neutral. Thus, I am tempted to side with the latter explanation (fatigue).
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EDIT: Now the roundtable is talking about the youth movement in baseball. Never one to say something intelligent, Steve Phillips -- again in his opinion as "an ex-GM" -- is advocating drafting High School players over College players, despite all statistical evidence that points otherwise, because you can get "younger players."
Side note -- Phillips was notorious for signing aged veterans -- like Mo Vaugh, Bobby Bonilla and Kenny Rogers -- to expensive contracts during his brief tenure as the Mets GM.
Ay yi yi.
the only guy that got seriously injured in the wbc was luis ayala. he needed surgery and missed the entire year.
ReplyDeletemore oldies phillips sign: Mike Piazza(well he's awesome), roberto alomar, jeremy burnitz, robin ventura, and a 70 year old rickey henderson
WHAT ABOUT JAKE PEAVY!?
ReplyDeleteSure, he logged 203 IP in 2006, but those were less quality innings than he pitched in 2004,2005,2007 & 2008
ReplyDeleteapparently if you can jerk off some execs at ESPN or take it in the ass you get a job as a baseball analysts (you hear that Cubsfan4evr, that's all you have to do!)
ReplyDeleteI wonder if ESPN does things, like you know, fact checking on a persons career before they hire people. I mean, that's probably how peolpe like John Kruk and Joe Morgan got jobs. Because they clearly don't care once you already have the job
Steve Phillips was GM of the Mets when they signed Reyes and Wright I believe so he has to get some credit for doing something right. They are two amazing young players.
ReplyDeleteI would be a great analyst for ESPN so they should hire me for my expertise and insight, not for that…………because it won’t happen.
OK< so phillips drafted Kazmir (who was traded by his predecessor for Victor Zambrano) and Wright and signed Jose Reyes.
ReplyDeleteHOWEVER, he also signed:
Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Pedro Astacio, Mike Bordick, Bobby Bonilla, Rickey Henderson, Kenny Rogers, Jeromy Burnitz and Kazuo Matsui to RIDICULOUSLY expensive contracts, given their ability. This outweighs the 3 good signings