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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

The Yankees HAVE Improved. Shit.

This post is in relation to David "MVP" Eckstein's December 24th, 2008 post entitled "The 2008 Yankees" and his viewpoint on this in posts after this blog. His contention is that the free-agent signings the Yankees now have do not improve the team all that much from the departures the team had.

First point: Mark Tiexeira replacing Jason Giambi. Looking the the offensive numbers one sees that actually this is not the biggest improvement. Last year, Giambi had this stat line: .373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs. Tex's stat line is predicted to be this: .404/.564/ .969 with with 39 HRs. While there is a difference between the HR and OBS, in reality, this disparity is not as big as public perception make it out to be. But here's the thing, Tex is a gold glove defender and is only like 29 years old. Giambi was an old fuck who couldn't move that well. So the Yankees do get an improvement both offensively and defensively which could tack on at least one more win to their 88/89 win season last year.

Second point: Nick Swisher replaced Bobby Abreu. This is a valid point. Bobby Abreu walked a shit ton (.371 OBS last year) and has decent power and still probably better at walking, hitting for power, and defense. So I'll give Ecksetin that here is not an improvement. But in the Yankees defense, it was never meant to be and they could have done a lot worse.

Third Point: AJ Burnett replaces Mike Mussina. Last year, Mussina had one of his best years getting 20 wins, having a 3.74 ERA, and having a 4.84 K/BB ratio. This is getting replaced with this projected stat line: 15 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 2.71 K/BB with about 10 less IP. Again, this is not an improvement and again, another valid point. But here's the thing, Mussina was the ace of the staff last year and Burnett's only the 2nd guy in the rotation and he's NOT the ace.

Fourth Point: CC Sabathia was worked too hard during the end of the year and this will manifest itself with poor performance while Sabathia is in pinstripes. Again, I can take this as a valid point considering how shitty did Sabathia in like his first maybe 7 starts? I don't but in the beginning he did shit. However, after this, he was amazing. Sabathia pitched well before he went to Milwaukee and amazing once he got there. There's no reason that the vast majority of the season that CC can't be great. Here's his projected stat line: 19 wins, 3.33 ERA, 231 K, 4.44 K/BB ratio, and in 243 innings. You're gonna tell me that's not an improvement for a team?

MY REBUTTAL


The thing that Eckstein overlooks is that the improvements of this team come from more than just off-season free agent signings, they come internally as well. He's other areas where the Yankees with improve.

Xavier Nady: This guy is a damn fine baseball player and a player that helps with their offensive woes. In recent years with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon were the outfield, the Yanks didn't really have an outfield because these players were oft injured. With Nady (and Swisher) the Yankees finally have depth and talent in the outfield. And this year, Nady will be on the team for an entire year to help this club instead of just half of one.

A-Rod: Remember, this is from a purely objective, on-the-field basis. Last year, A Rod had a down here (if that's possible for him considering he was 2nd in OPS in the AL last year). And this year, he's expected to "rebound". He is projected to get 44 HRs as opposed to his 35 last year and have an OPS 17 points higher than it was last year. His performance should improve thus helping this offense.

Chien-Ming Wang: Wang only pitched 95 innings last year. This was because of a freak injury when Wang was rounding home after playing some NL team. Wang should log significant innings this year and there's no reason to think he can't pitch throughout a 162 game season, something he didn't do last year.

Joba Chamberlian: This year he'll be in the rotation all year. Last year, he started off in the bullpen, then went down to AAA, then was in the starting rotation, and then back in the bullpen. This year, he'll be in the rotation. For sure. Chamberlian needed AAA help and some experience to fully get into the groove of being a full time starter, and watching him last year, he seemed to get it. With a year under his belt and seemingly developed, Chamberlian should be much better than he was last year.

A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlian and Pettitte is still better than a 2008 rotation that included Mussina, Pettitte, Darrell Rasner with Chamberlian, Wang, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Carl Pavano getting significant starting time as well.

Now I'm not saying in this post that the Yankees will make the playoffs or anything like that. I am however saying that David "MVP" Eckstein is, hmmm how to word this nicely wrong?, to think the Yankees can't or won't be better than their 2008 counterparts.

8 comments:

  1. the yanks definitely improved for the sole reason that their pitching was horrendous last season. I couldnt wrap my brain around how a 220 million dollar roster could not have any good pitches outside of mussina(luck considering his age) and rivera(been great for 10 years).

    Also, i severely doubt sabathia will reach any of those numbers you put up for his projections. I just dont see it in his first year in new york following a season where the brewers tried to kill him.

    also, there's no such thing as OBS. either OBP(on base percentage) or OPS(on base + slugging). OBS is just confusing

    Arod got a home run and 2 walks his first 3 atbats of the spring. haha. Billy Beane is drooling somewhere

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  2. My point here was that the offseason acquitions weren't going to improve the team. Yes, Nady is a big addition to an injury prone and old outfield. Yes, Wang's bounce back is going to be huge. These are all things I detail in my analysis of the Yankees. However, you have to also consider the continued regression of players like Jeter and Pettite. For the yankees to be great, they will need healthy and productive seasons from Wang, Arod and Cano.

    FURTHERMORE, where the shit do you get 39 HR for Tex??? That is the upper 20% projection for him, which would require A LOT of luck. Here is what 4 other reputable projection systems have to say about Tex:

    Bill James:
    36 HR, .299/.397/.559 .956 OPS

    CHONE
    32 HR, .286/.381/.521 .902 OPS

    Marcel
    27 HR, .292/.387/.522 .909 OPS

    Oliver
    33 HR, .291/.372/.529 .901 OPS


    As you can see, other than James (and maybe BP), his OPS is projected to decline in 2009 -- even James and your source show at minimal some OPS decline. Furthermore, 33 HRs seems to be more in tune with his over/under line, as Tex has only hit over 35 HR twice in his career and not in two seasons (and he's not getting younger or faster with his bat swing)

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  3. whatever, you're missing the point.

    Plus the acquisitions DID help because they still lost Abreu, Mussina, and Giambi and they needed to fill those holes somehow and they did fill those holes with the best available to them

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  4. Oh, i know they needed to fill the holes, but the marginal replacement values of those specific players aren't upgrades. The 2009 Yankees, on paper, aren't an upgrade. Now, the 2008 yankees just underperformed and were oft injured, which is why they werent as good as their 2006 or 2007 form

    NOW, regarding CC:

    Second only to Tim Lincecum who was abused like a bitch in his sophomore season, CC's 111844 Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) eclipsed the third most abused pitcher in the league by over 33,000 points! In fact, only CC and Lincy broke the six digit PAP mark in 2008.

    CC has pitched over 513 innings between the past two seasons; there is much reason to believe, based on the fact that humans (and even machines) break down. Zambrano, a hallmark of abuse from 2003 to 2007 in the Cubs system, finally broke down. Same thing with Aaron Harang, who like Z often pitched a ton of pitches per outing and many IP per season.

    Needless to say, I'll easily pass on drafting CC.

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  5. eckstein did a nice job rephrasing what i said in the original comment. I must disagree with his assessment that the yankees underperformed last season. I think they played to their potential. Their downfall was the hideous pitching they threw out there every day. They had no one! I cant even name the freaks they had in the bullpen. They also made a huge mistake thinking they can rely on two young guys, like hughes and kennedy to fill 2 rotation spots. Thats suicide.

    pettitte didnt under perform, he was just 40 years old. wangs injury was no different from every others teams injuries. and their set up man was fansworth. pathetic.

    they will finish top 2 in the east. I just can decide between boston and tampa

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  6. The Yankees have a fucken awesome rotation and a great line-up, but what worries me- and as I've said on multiple occasions- the Yankees severely lack pitching depth and a bullpen. And while on paper this team looks good, look what happened to the Tigers last yr when they had no pitching depth and bullpen. The Kansas fucking City Royals had more wins than them. I don't know, on paper the Yankees do look good and improved, but with the Red Sox and Rays being so good, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the Yankees don't make the playoffs again

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  7. So Girardi came out today and said Joba is going to make 30 starts. And yet, no one in all of baseball projects him at pitching more than 150 innings.

    Hmm...

    plus, there is that +30 IP rule for pitchers under 26

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