Applying Statistics to Actors

In a recent ESPN.com post, Bill Simmons talks about statistics in relating to the best actors and actresses of all time. Since, as our mission statement says, "Statistics are our science and 'the immeasurable character of men' is the obsolete religion of blind faith" and since we love movies as well, I figure this article would be an interesting, light-hearted read. Here's an excerpt:

If the Oscars were reliable, they would help us create a formula that enabled us to rank actors of all eras. Well, what if we tried anyway? Let's make best actor/actress nods worth seven points and nominations worth three. Then let's make best supporting actor/actress nods worth three and nominations worth one. It's a highly scientific formula I just spent at least 27 seconds devising. And guess what? The Simmons Cinematic System shakes out in an overwhelmingly logical way.

VODM: VALUE OVER DERMOT MULRONEY, NOT VALUE OVER REPLACEMENT PLAYER.

Top 13 actors: Nicholson (38); Spencer Tracy (35); Laurence Olivier (32); Marlon Brando (30); Hoffman, Newman (29); Jack Lemmon (28); Peter O'Toole (24); Gary Cooper, Hanks, Penn (23); De Niro and Pacino (22).

Top 10 actresses: Hepburn (52); Streep (45); Bette Davis (41); Ingrid Bergman (29); Jane Fonda (27); Greer Garson (25); Liz Taylor (23); Jessica Lange, Sissy Spacek (22); Ellen Burstyn (20).

Other moderns of note: Daniel Day-Lewis, Foster and Kate Winslet (18); Robert Duvall (16); Russell Crowe, (13); Sly Stallone (3); Keanu Reeves (0).

Are you happy with those rankings? Me too! I'm a genius! Yeah, Pacino and De Niro should be higher, but they were robbed in '74 and '76, so their stats make sense. Lemmon's number surprises me a little. Same for Fonda. Other than that, I have no major qualms besides a failure to account for iconic performances like De Niro's in Raging Bull (should it be worth 10?), Nicholson's in The Shining (he wasn't even nominated!) and Keanu's in Point Break ("I am an EFF BEE EYE AGENT!").

Now, if you feel like getting your supernerd on, you could figure out Simmons Points on a per-film basis by dividing SPs by movies made (Streep has a sterling 1.13 average), a Hollinger-like AER (actor's efficiency rating, some combination of awards and box office gross that would invariably crown Harrison Ford the greatest ever and drive me crazy) or even VODM (like baseball's value over replacement player, only it would be value over Dermot Mulroney). Just make sure you run all of your calculations through me, because I just bought the URL www.hollywoodprospectus.com.

You can read the whole column here