The Baltimore Orioles

We already know I Baltimore is generally a graveyard for washed up Cubs, but what does that say for '09? While no one expects the Orioles to be able to compete, no matter how good they are minus some act of god in 2009, they’ve seemingly built a good young team with much future potential. Guys with high ceilings likes Felix Pie -- who has under 500 major league at bats to his name -- are still developing and with the right kind of seasoning, could develop to be top players by 2011. Aside from veteran force Brian Roberts, who was recently signed to a four year deal, the team is going young. They’ve cut ties with players like Kevin Millar and Daniel Cabrera and aside from a half-hearted run at Mark Teixeira, the O’s have shown little indication of pursuing any high profile veterans any time soon. They’ve traded out several pieces like Kevin Olson for younger talent and added low-risk, high reward pitcher Rich Hill, who, despite being out of options, will probably get a full season at the major league level to fix his mechanical problems if for no other reason than the O’s have nobody better to slot into their rotation. What amounts here, with the likes of Luke Scott, Adam Jones and catching prospect Matt Wieters, is a team with the potential to contend in the future. Unfortunately, however, the O’s play in the AL East and will always be financial outnumbered by the Red Sox and Yankees, who have recently moved towards smarter spending tendencies. This, combined with the ultra deep farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays projects a bleak future for the future contending potential of the Orioles.

Guys to draft in 2009:
o Matt Wieters - I wouldn’t overdraft him, as I wouldn’t expect to see Wieters join the O’s roster prior to mid-May (to delay arbitration and avoid super-two status), but he’s certainly someone who will be very productive (offensively speaking) for fantasy owners who save a spot for him on their bench. Wieters, a top pick for the O’s in 2006 (a great year for talent), has mashed up minor league pitching over the past two seasons and projects to be a plus batting average, plus home run power catcher. Think a young Jorge Posada.

Guys to keep on your radar in 2009:
o Felix Pie - Despite being labeled a “wash up” like his 5 tools predecessor Corey Patterson, Pie has yet to accumulate over 500 at bats to his name at the major league level. Most of this playing time has been split between various trips to the majors between 2007 and 2008. The frustrated Cubs gave up on Pie without giving him a fair chance, which bodes well for the O’s (who bought low on his services) provided his potential materializes. Pie, however, is less of a fantasy commodity than he is one to his real team, as his defensive prowess and speed hasn’t translated into stolen bases at any level of play. His high K rate also doesn’t lend well to maintaining a useful batting average. He does, on the other hand, flash 15 plus home run power.

o Rich Hill - Another “washed up” Cub, Hill still has his great stuff. His strikeout rate last year remained high in the minors and majors; he just lost control over that knee buckling curveball. If he can just shave his BB/9 down to league average, he looks to be a positive fantasy commodity in ‘09. I wouldn’t draft him, but I’d surely place a waiver out for him at the first sign of sustained success.

Overrated Players for 2009:
Luke Scott - With the addition of Felix Pie, Scott is going to get bumped to the DH role for the immediate future. From a fantasy perspective, Luke Scott is not a very appealing player. While he does possess respectable plate discipline (11.3 BB% career) and a strong career ISO (.231), he is not surrounded by many high on base guys to drive in (low RBI's) or many power guys to drive him in (low R's). Furthermore, Scott's 22% K rate puts him in below average BA territory (expect something around .270 or lower, to the tune of what one would expect from Aaron Rowand, Akinori Iwamura or Jhonny Peralta). Furthermore, Scott's above average defensive range in the OF doesn't translate into stolen bases (8 SB and 5 CS in 1300 career PAs). So unless your league rewards BB (not OBP) and XBH's/TB's, Scott isn't exactly anyone to salivate over. However, in the broader perspective of things, Scott should be very valuable (offensively) for the Orioles in 2009 and beyond.