I was writing a post for the blog titled "Whatever Happened To Andruw Jones" in which I was attempting to discover what the hell happened to the once fiercesome force that trolled the outfield and trotted the based of Turner field. I looked at many different reference points -- his K rates, BB rates, LD rates, etc. -- and came up empty. I ultimately cannot explain what happened to Jones.
On one side, Jones has been swinging at more pitches outside the zone and making less contact with pitches in the zone, so you'd think "hey, his pitch recognition is off", right? But over this same time period, Jones has simulataneous increased his walk rate. I thought "maybe it's his declining batspeed", but noticed that Jones' contact rate (with the exception of last season) has remained relatively constant -- in fact, his contact rate with pitches outside the zone has offset his decreased in-the-zone contact rates. Jones' ISO plummeted in 2007, despite the fact that he increased his single season LD% against his three year average between 2004 and 2006. As Jones was hitting more LD and less GBs, his power somehow DECREASED.
I can't figure the guy out. What happened? Jones is still a defensive monster (well, except last year -- but some combination of diminished playing time and cake could be to blame for that), but his offensive skills just aren't translating anymore. Jones has always struck out a lot (and thus owns a mediocre career BA), but made up for it with power and a decent walk clip. Now that Jones is walking more and hitting less balls on the ground, why are his numbers plummeting? Andruw Jones is only 31; shouldn't there still be some gas left in the tank?
Please, someone help.
the best i can surmise is that jones has always had wholes in his swing. terry pendelton, the braves long time hitting coach will attest that jones has never been consistent with his bat mechaniscs. Kinda like a basketball shooter who constantly changes his shooting motion, forgetting to put the elbow under the ball. however, jones always made up for it by being able to crush mitake pitches in the strike zone. he seemed to have finally figure out his swing in 2005, but something happened and he fell of the waggon again.
ReplyDeleteit may take him a years to get his swing mechanics back, but considering his decline in physical shape, he may not give himself the opportunity to break out of it this time around.