I was watching some Baseball Tonight recently and to fill time yet be informative, they had Buster Olney and company talk about the best and up and coming from each division. Since our 30 teams in 30 Days didn’t really pan out, I thought this might be a nice substitute. Now frankly, I absolutely know there is going to be some argument, especially considering most of the “30 Teams In 30 Days” argument came from information about specific players and not about the teams as a whole (*cough cough* MVP Eckstein). I am way too lazy to put exact reasoning behind each of these players but I trust you there is. I used information from PECOTA and Fangraphs.com to come up with the information so there is clearly expert rationale behind my picks. But by no means is this list to be the end all be all. There is clearly reasons for other players to be on this list and clearly fine stats to prove why other players to be swapped. With this, I in fact expect and encourage debate and this is meant to be a fun little baseball tidbit and not so much a forum for attacking and pissing each other off. So with out further ado, my list…
AL Central:
-Cy Young: Fransisco Liriano (SP, MIN)
-MVP: Grady Sizemore (CF, CLE)
-Rolaids Reliever: Joe Nathan (CL, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Denard Span (OF, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitcher): Kevin Slowey (SP, MIN)
-Gold Glover: Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN)/ Brian Anderson (CF, CWS)
-X Factor: Cleveland rotation. I think the Twins will take this division because they’re rotation in awesome, they have the defense to back it up, and while their offense isn’t prolific, no start will really end up like 2007 Matt Cain (awesome ERA, losing record. However, if the Indians rotation end up vastly exceeding expectations, then the can easily win this division because they have an awesome bullpen and offense.
AL East:
-Cy Young: Josh Beckett (SP, BOS)
-MVP: David Ortiz (DH, BOS)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (CL, BOS)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): David Price (P, TAM)
-Gold Glover: Carl Crawford (OF, TAM)
-X Factor: Health of Yankees rotation. That rotation truly is awesome but the Yankees have absolutely no depth. If one pitcher gets injured, especially for a significant amount of time, this team is screwed. But if they stay relatively healthy all season long, they can make the playoffs
AL West:
-Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA)
-MVP: Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Ziegler (CL, OAK)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Brandon Morrow (P/CL, SEA)
-Gold Glover: Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK)
-X Factor: Effectiveness of A’s rotation. The division really looks like its all for the Angels taking just because everyone else looks so weak this year. However, if the A’s have another great year and the Angels falter (like they’re starting too with all the rotation injuries), then the A’s can win this division. (Even though Eckstein thinks the A’s already will win it).
NL Central:
-Cy Young: Rich Harden (SP, CHC). He needs to stay healthy though like he did last year.
-MVP: Albert Pujols (1B, STL)
-Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)
-Gold Glover: Mike Cameron (OF, MIN)
-X Factor: Dusty Baker and the Reds rotation. If the Cubs DON’T win this division then I will laugh hysterically for like about a week. The only team that even would have a miniscule chance would be the Reds, and on paper, the Reds have a decent rotation. And if by some miracle Dusty Baker doesn’t destroy these pitchers, then the Reds will have a chance to compete.
NL West:
-Cy Young: Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
-MVP: Manny Rameriz (OF, LAD)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Broxton (CL, LAD)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SFG)
-Gold Glover: Randy Winn (OF, SFG)
-X Factor: Giants Bullpen. I view this team like the Twins, except slightly shittier. They have a good, deep starting rotation, defense, and just enough offense. If the Giants end up having a bullpen this year, then this team can win the division.
NL East:
-Cy Young: Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL)
-MVP: Hanley Rameriz (SS, FLA)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Lidge (CL, PHI)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Josh Johnson (SP, FLA)
-Gold Glover: Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI)
-X Factor: Mets rotation. The Braves have a damn good rotation and great defense which will carry them far. The Phillies have an above average, deep rotation, a good bullpen (one of the few teams in recent history to have a consistent bullpen year to year) and a great offense. The Mets have a prolific offense and a much improved bullpen (were the relievers overpaid, absolutely, did the Mets NEED to do it, of course). So if the Mets want to stay in contention this year, that rotation needs to be just as strong.
Something I noticed, the NL East is the only division to have all five teams represented. The AL Central is the most lopsided. But then again, this is just my opinion.
Just a quick note: being avid and extremely thorough fantasy baseball fans and fantasy baseball fans, you might view my break out stars as like “what the fuck?” But essentially all of those players are people the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are people 1) in/were in the minor leagues expected to be great (i.e. Wieters, Cruz), 2) young guys who poised to have a breakout awesome year (i.e. Slowey, Sanchez), or 3) guys who have been in the leagues a few years and are essentially “developed” and will show the world why the should have been drafted higher in fantasy baseball drafts (i.e. Iannetta, Votto). Essentially, “breakout” means you haven’t really “produced” in the big leagues for any reason and will do so in 2009.
Just another excuse to use your new excel...
ReplyDeleteI have my doubts about nelson cruz over a full season. He's 27 years old and has been in the minors almost as long as Micah Hoffpauir. Cruz has always dominated the minors, posting OPS numbers in the 900's but given their ages, I can't necessarily predict either to have overly strong full seasons in the bigs. I compare Cruz to a guy like Ryan Spilborghs in colorado. We'll see
Also, i have a hard time believing ziegler is gonna repeat last year's numbers at all. I'm gonna pull an eckstein and tell you that he GREATLY outperformed his 3.72 FIP. I would take scott shields for my rolaids relief
Oh, and i'm still not sold on the braves the way every expert seems to be. I wouldnt be surprised if they repeated last season's performance
I actually didn't use my excel spreadsheet, I was just bored in class
ReplyDeleteI'm tired of people talking about the Reds being "the next rays". The reds have a decent pitching staff, but the offense is so goddamn anemic when you take Joey Votto and Jay Bruce out of the equation. Their defense is awful (especially with Encarnacion, who is like a shitty Ryan Braun (LF at 3B))
ReplyDeleteAlso, let me back up what Dmitry said 110%. Ziegler's K rate was 30% below league average last season, while his BB rate was merely average. I expect him to increase the K rate some this year, but not by a whole lot. Especially if Ziegler can't break a 2:1 K/BB, hes going to be in for some hurt. Ziegler is completely overrated (almost as much as Devine was last season) and Im shocked beane didn't try to flip both of them, who SEEMED like great relievers last season, for great prospects. I see Ziegler's ERA approaching 4 this year...FIP of 3.9? It's also very possible that he loses the job to another overrated reliever, Santiago Casilla.
ReplyDeleteI love Hoffpauir and Cruz, but you gotta be realistic. They still may be AAAA players, though Cruz had a big break through last year. Both are better than Spilborghs, if you ask me.
Finally, i think the braves will be better because they upgraded the rotation and added a quality CF (Anderson). The team is better than last year, but that doesnt mean they will win the East. My NL East prediction is:
Mets (90+ W)
Phillies (90 W)
Braves (85 W?)
Marlins (sub 500)
Nationals (way sub 500)
Frankly, I don't trust the Mets rotation. Outside of Santana you have Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and John Maine. That's not that impressive. I think you need at least an above average rotation of at least guys to be playoff contenders, at at least two studs. I don't see either happening for the Mets. On paper that pitching staff just looks bad. However, if they can be better than expected, then they can win their division. Hence, being an X-Factor- it's a thing that can go either way
ReplyDeleteAs I said in my post, I think the Cubs are going to run away with that division. I think the Cubs have a more worse team than last year, but it doesn't matter because every other team SUCKS. No one else has even some semblance of a rotation or a good bullpen. However, on paper, the Reds have the best rotation out of the other five lackluster teams. What else am I going to say to "X-Factor"? I am not advocating that the Reds will even have a .500 record, but it's not like the Reds don't have the raw talent and farm system to compete either.
Also, an offense consisting of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Brandon Phillips and a little Willy Tavares isn't that bad. It's not great by any stretch of the imagination but when 4.5 of your starting offense is above average, it'll help this team get probably 2nd place in the division.
Eckstein, for a guy trying to get Nelson Cruz in your fantasy league, your being a hypocrite. I understand that Cruz needs to prove that he's more than a AAAA player. That's part of the definition of being a breakout candidate. I think he can be better than a quad A guy and, wait for it, break out and be a big league guy.
I also like Ryan Speilborghs in Colorado and think he'll be a break out guy too so I don't know why that's a bad thing. And didn't Ryan Howard get called up at 26? Cruz and other guys may not be huge stars but when all these guys (Cruz, Hoffpauir, and Speilborghs) are given a legit chance, I think they'll do just fine
I'm fine with debate, but how about you guys stop shitting over everything I say. Let's see you guys do better
Mike Pelfrey is very underrated. His K rate fell last year, but he took huge strides in terms of his BB rate. If his K rate can bounce back to just 6 per 9, he'll be a top 30 SP next year. Perez, Maine, they're ok end of the rotation guys. Better than Marquis.
ReplyDeleteHow do the cubs have a worse team than last year? The additions of Milton Bradley and Gregg and Heilmann and subtraction of marquis offset the loss of Wood, DeRosa and Edmonds. You forget just how good Pocket Rocket is. His 400 wOBA off the bench isnt gonna repeat, but he's pegged as a .360 to .370 wOBA guy, which is awesome and better than DeRosa. Note that DeRosa had a career year by a wide margin last season.
Edwin Encarnacion (.350 wOBA), Brandon Phillips (.324 wOBA) and Willy Tavares (.300 wOBA, .310 career wOBA) actually suck.
I like Cruz, but I wouldn't bank on him top pan out 100%. I hope e does and it's a risk I'm willing to take, but he still might be another Corey Patterson/Ronny Cedeno.
Wood > Gregg
ReplyDeleteDeRosa > Miles or whoever's playing 2nd
Edmonds > Bradley. Well sort of. The problem is that Bradley needs to stay healthy and out of trouble.
That's why the team is shittier
That Mets rotation is still pretty bad and not playoff quality, right now on paper. Essentially every pitcher is better than Jason Marquis, that doesn't mean they're good. If Jason Maqruis is like 50. Players 49 and 48 are still better than Marquis but still shitty. Stop saying pitchers are better than Jason Marquis, that doesn't prove anything
did eckstein just say fontenot is a better player than derosa? seriously? I take offense to that mainly due to my man crush on him. He was literally just on espn doing an interview and his voice can cure cancer from what i can tell. No chance fontenot approaches derosa's numbers
ReplyDeleteFirst off, Miles is not playing second. He's replacing Ronny Cedeno.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, Mike Fontenot's extrapolated projected line, 550 AB, is 13 HR, .287 BA, .362 OBP, .443 SLG
DeRosa's projected line is .268 BA, 14 HR, .353 OBP, .412 SLG in 568 AB
DeRosa had a career year last year and even though the cubs sold low on him, Fontenot should be a quality replacement. Take note that DeRosa's UZR/150 at 2B was -14.4. Fontenot had a +16.4 UZR/150 last season and a 14.1 UZR/150 avg across 144 games at 2B. In limited action last season, Fontenot was +5 fielding runs (1/2 win) above average. DeRosa was -.8 Fielding runs below average.
Furthermore, DeRosa's projected wOBA, per Bill James, is .337. Fontenot's is .355.
Thus, Fontenot is an upgrade at 2B
Regarding the change between Wood and Gregg, an RPs value impact on a team is very limited, due to the small innings they toss in a season. Think about the entire season, 162 games of 9 innings per game (almost 1500 IP). Kerry Wood pitched 4.5% of those innings. His seasonal value was +2.2 wins last season and let's assume he maintains that rate next year. 2.2 wins is a lot for an RP and was achievable because Wood was one of the best RP in baseball last year. Kevin Gregg's value is somewhere around +1 win on average as a relief pitcher, which is hardly useless. So the difference in value between the two guys is 1 or 1.5 wins tops. Considering the upgrade of 1 full win by interchanging DeRosa out with Fontenot, this change is almost negligible in the larger scheme of it all
then we come to Milton Bradley and Jim Edmonds. Edmond's terrible fielding almost completely offset his offensive skill and was ultimately worth +1.0 wins for the Cubs last season. (+2.5 offense, -1.5 defense). On the other hand, in 120 games, Milton Bradley was worth 37.4 batting runs and 2.9 fielding runs, to be worth over 4.0 wins. Edmonds, if he plays, is likely to decline from last seasons' performance (age), while the 30 yr old Bradley is still in his prime, even if oft injured. If bradley can play 120 games this year, he's most definitely an upgrade for the cubs
30 Teams In 30 Days is just cursed with my douchiness
ReplyDeletenelson cruz RBI's extrapolated is 150. dont tell me about extrapolating shit
ReplyDelete