In lou of MVP Eckstein's repeated White Sox and Alexei Rameriz bashing, I thought I'd return the favor. If Cubs fan are going to repeatedly knock the ChiSox and a player people talk about, I'm going to do the same.
First, Ozzie gets a bad rap as a manager. I agree he's done some questionable things and is not the greatest manager but he's certainly not as bad as people perceive him to be. But let's talk about the glaring mistake Lou has made. One of the only jobs a manger has to do is create the lineup- and Lou hasn't done the best job of that. First of all, Ryan Theroit, a guy who can hit .310 and OBS .390+ is hitting seventh. Theriot is a quintessential lead off man because of his high OBS and little power. Instead, Lou decides to bat Soriano first. A man who had a OBS just below Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye last year. Soriano should be batting third, fourth or fifth. But because of the notion that "Soriano can't hit unless he bats first", Soriano lead offs. And as we all know, the notion is bullshit and based on a sample size when Soriano was moved down the order once.
And the man who Lou bats third, is an over hyped player who also should be batting lower- Derrek Lee. Last year, D-Lee was 15th in 1B VORP- on par with Pittsburgh's Adam LaRoche. D-Lee was also 2nd in all of MLB grounding into 27 double plays. And D-lee is no stranger to that, grounding into 15 last year 11 two years before- in 175 ABs. We all read Moneyball- we all know the importance of outs. Clearly, we all know just how bad double plays are. His HR/FB ratio has also steadily decreased since 2005 (23.7%) to now (5.3% this year and 11.7 in 2008) and Lee's GB% has also increased. This obviously affects his HR totals seeing as he only hit 20 last year and 22 the year before.
If MVP Eckstein wants to take multiple jabs at the White Sox manager and a player I can return the favor and take stabs at Lou Pinella and D-Lee. The things you and I mentioned (D-Lee hitting into double plays and his reduced HR rate; Alexei failing to walk)are commonly known, but that doesn't mean you have to write multiple posts about it. We all know the Yankees got a new stadium but that doesn't mean I have to hear about every five minutes on ESPN.
I'm not saying you can never criticize the White Sox but the "Alexei Rameriz, Ozzie Guillen, LOL" post was just one of many that you guys, mainly MVP Eckstein, has done and is just unnecessary.
Derrek Lee is really just an older, overpaid version of James Loney. Some power, good defense and a bunch of hype. D-Lee's GB/FB ratio spiked by 30% last season and as much as I hope that was a fluke, it must be noted that the increasing GIDPs and decreasing power is worrisome. After hitting 12 home runs in the first 6 weeks of last season, DLee cooled off quickly and had 3 in his final 2months. After 8 HR in september of 2007 and 13 HR through May 2008, i thought 2005 Dlee was back, but it looks like his age has pushed him back to 2001 production level. If Lee hits 20 HR this season, we'll be lucky. His 70+ Bb a season are nice, but an 820 OPS guy doesnt belong in the 3 hole when you have ARam, Bradley in the line up.
ReplyDeleteideally, the order would look like:
Kosuke Fukudome (L)
Ryan Theriot (R)
Milton Bradley (L)
Aramis Ramirez (R)
Alfonso Soriano (R)
Mike Fontenot (L)
Geovanny Soto (R)
Derrek Lee (R)
Pitcher
Also, it should be noted that:
ReplyDelete1) Pinella was a infinitely better player than Guillen
2) Pinella is a HOF manager with about 100, give or take a few, better seasons than Guillen under his managerial belt
the only thing i hate more than double plays is when you use OBS. THERE IS NO SUCH THING FOR THE MILLIONTH TIME. On-base-percentage. there is no S, anywhere. OBP. Seriously, it's a little thing, but it makes you sound stupid.
ReplyDeleteSomething my brother pointed out to me:
ReplyDelete"Ozzie Guillen winning percentage as manager: .534 Lou Piniella career winning percentage: .521
Ozzie's numbers are for his first five years as manager. During Piniella's first five years, his winning percentage is .524
In their first five years, both managers won a world series. Ozzie has a .750 winning percentage, while Lou has an .800 winning percentage
Really, looking at their first five years, Piniella and Ozzie are comparable, with Ozzie having a better overall regular season record"
So this post got me thinking about Derrek Lee. If, as Sexy Rexy says, he is overrated, then well I need proof. So instead of getting work done, Excel and baseball stats and I had some quality time calculating together.
ReplyDeleteI looked at a few stats about Derrek Lee, as well as his first base counterparts on the south side, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. I looked at the three to see who the best first baseman in Chicago is, offensively.
I looked at player stats from 2004 to 2008. I used 2004 as that is when Derrek Lee started playing with the Cubs. I included the stats Thome accumulated with his last years with the Phillies and his tenure with the White Sox, although switching leagues does alter his stats. The stats I looked at are hits, walks, home runs, average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+, Home run to fly ball percentage and Value over replacement player. Now, I am NOT at all an expert on sabermetric stats. I know basically nothing, so if you think I am either misinterpreting a stat or am not including a relevant stat, let me know and please provide substantial reasoning as to why. I chose the stats I did because all three are mostly power hitters.
I averaged out each player’s stats over the five-year period. For absolute stats, hits, walks and home runs, I did not include the stats from years in which the player missed significant playing time due to injury, i.e. Lee in 2006 and Thome in 2005. I did include the averaged out Lee and Thome had in injury-ridden years, as those stats consider plate appearances. Additionally, because I am not a paid Baseball Prospectus member, I could not access VORP stats before 2006. In averaging out VORP, I did not include Lee’s 2006 campaign because of course his injury made him replaceable that year. Again, if you think I have misinterpreted any stat or have done something else wrong in my statistical analysis, please let me know and provide justification.
Now here is the average per year stats:
Lee: 182 hits, 74 walks, 30 home runs, .301 AVG, .380 OBP, .523 SLG, 129 OPS+, 11.2% HR/FB, 38.9 VORP
Konerko: 149 hits, 71 walks, 34 home runs, .274 AVG, .362 OBP, .509 SLG, 123 OPS+, 13.7% HR/FB, 27.4 VORP
Thome: 131 hits, 99 walks, 38 home runs, .258 AVG, .389 OBP, .519 SLG, 131 OPS+, 18.3% HR/FB, 47.3 VORP
So what do the stats say? Well, in my mind, Lee may be overrated nationally but certainly not in Chicago. Since 2004, Lee averages more hits per season, has a higher average and has a higher slugging percentage. His OPS+ and OBP are comparable and his VORP makes him no slouch. However, since I only have VORP since 2006, I think Lee’s would be higher if he did not miss so many games in 2006. Lee walks more than Konerko. The only stat that I looked at that Lee could improve on is HR/FB percentage. Of the three, Thome is the pure power hitter, leading in walks, home runs, OBP, OPS+ and VORP. But his 131 hits and .258 AVG certainly leave something to be desired. The stats that I looked at show that Lee is currently the best offensive first baseman in Chicago.
Now what about the future? Well, Lee clearly is not the hitter he was in 2005, with all his stats, outside of 2006, declining since then. Konerko has seen an eerily similar drop in his numbers across the board since 2005 as well. During the five-year time span, Thome peaked in 2006 in his first year with the White Sox and has had an almost universal drop in numbers since then.
If trends continue, expect a continued decline from all three players. While Lee is not the premier first baseman he was in 2005, of the three he is the best first baseman in professional Chicago baseball.
Good analysis Journalismo. DLee's GB/FB ratio has been steadily increasing the past two seasons, which has accounting for his large uptick in GIDPs. GIDP may be the by product of situation, but DLee is just not good in these situations. Interestingly enough, in high leverage situations, Derrek Lee tends to perform BETTER than in low leverage situations, so while Dlee may GIDP alot, according to fangraphs data, he doesn't convert his ABs into outs when it matters most (game on the line, RISP, etc).
ReplyDeleteYou should check out wOBA over OPS. It's a more accurate metric that weights OBP and SLGing in terms of RC. OPS sort of lumps players together, so a guy with a .400 OBP and .500 SLG has the same value in terms of OPS as a guy with a .350 OBP and 550 SLG and a guy with a 450 OBP and 450 SLG, but all three have distinctly different impacts (or projected impacts) on a team's run creation
more information about wOBA here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/