Last season, Andre Ethier claimed that Manny as lineup protection enabled him to see better pitches. The unquestionable demi-gods over at Baseball Prospectus claim otherwise. If the Dodgers do the smart thing and put Kemp in the batting order where he belongs (certainly not #7 in the order, behind Russell "most overrated catcher ever" Martin and James "overrated piece of shit who wishes he was Derrek Lee and proved so by hitting into 25 GIDP last season" Loney), their offense should be fine. If you don't believe me, compare the runs created projection (using Juan Pierre's 2008 batting line) with an efficient post-Manny lineup (5.05 runs per game) compared to the Dodger's Manny-infused lineup (5.65 runs per game). Sure, the team loses about one-half a run per game without Manny's power/on base in the offensive picture, but that can easily be compensated if you expect James Loney and Russell Martin to each slug above .310 this season and more efficiently organize the lineup card.
Funny Fact: The Dodgers batted Juan Pierre 9th last night, behind the pitcher Randy Wolf. According to ESPN, Juan Pierre has batted in the 9th spot more than any other player on the team, including everyone on the pitching staff.
Accuscore projects the Dodgers to still win the division, but it dropped from like a 71% chance to ONLY a 66& chance and they're now projected to really only lose 3 less games.
ReplyDeleteDodgers will be fine without Manny for 50 games- makes you kind of question that contract huh? Ned Colletti is the new Steve Phillips.
Also, for as "good" of a manager people say Joe Torre is- he's easily fucking up one of the only jobs he has in setting the line up. Juan Pierre batting ninth IS good but Kemp should be hitting 1 or 2, not fucking 7. That's ridiculous
Well you have to consider that the Dodgers w/ manny helped to leverage that 71% lead. They may other wise be where they were last year as a barely sub-500 team. In the long tun, the extra .5 runs per game does matter, but the dodgers are in fine position for 3 reasons:
ReplyDelete1) The NL West sucks.
2) The dodgers can play 500 ball till the end of the season and end with 87-88 wins, more than the dbacks (who collectively cant hit outside upton) can muster.
3) Manny will be back for the end of the season, so if the dodger do indeed stay on top, they will have him when it matters most -- down the stretch -- and he shouldn't be fatigued by any means come september.
Kemp should probably bat 4/5. He doesnt walk a ton
ReplyDeleteTake note that in the efficient line up model, not one permutation has Kemp batting below the 5 spot and in the WORST positions possible, Kemp bats 5 or lower.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it funny how Russell Martin, according to this data, should be batting last?