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Monday, July 20, 2009

My Version Of Love/Hate For FF, Part I

I'm at work right now and looking at all of my mock drafts and it got me a little wet thinking about the upcoming football season. I originally wrote my own Love/Hate version of players I like and don't like, because like now I was bored at work, but then I realized I gave away WAY too many secrets about my football draft and the players I am targeting. And considering I'll be playing in a league in which most, if not everybody, will be reading my fantasy football posts before I draft, I realize it might not be the best thing in the world to announce all the players I like. However, I am a nice guy so I will do something similar, I'll pick one guy I like for their value per round

Now realize that once you get to round 7, this even happens at earlier rounds like 5th, the draft position for each individual players varies drastically. For example, one league had Cocthery and A-Gon has 6th round picks and another had them as 8th and 9th round selections, respectively (You'll see this reference at the end of this post). So when I say I like or don't like someone in a particular round 1) that doesn't mean I like or don't like them in general, it just means I like/hate their VALUE and 2) that doesn't mean they will go that position in your draft, it just means I have seen that position in one of my drafts and if I PERSONALLY see it, that means, you are very likely to see it as well. So anyways, on with my post...

Round One:

Crazy Man Love To: Michael Turner (RB- Atl). I agree with Matthew Berry on this and think he'll be the best RB next year, and especially better than Adrian Peterson (AP). I personally think AP is the better real life back, but his performance won't really translate into fantasy as much as people would like or hope for. I also think there will be second and late first round picks that will be better than AP. But anyway, Turner was the 2nd best RB last year and I think he'll be #1 next year. Now Tuner is going two in most mock and real drafts so obviously people like him, but I think if you have the #1 overall pick, you need to go with The Burner.

NOTE: Let's be honest, essentially everyone you pick in the first round will be solid and worth owning for you. I think all fantasy drafts are won in the later rounds anyway so even if you autopick or pick a TE in the first round, that player WILL help your team. But if you want VALUE, then you need to not look at the player rater on the side to help you draft.

You Can Burn In Hell: Matt Forte (RB- Chi). History has told me not to trust overworked rookies. Now as a Bears fan I love Forte, but as a fantasy owner I don't like him. He's going as the 4th best back overall and I just don't see that happening- mainly because I think he'll get injured. I think he will be good in the games he plays, I just don't trust he plays in a lot of games. Plus his O-line sucks. On a similar note, I don't like Steven Jackson either who only started 11 games last year. You want stellar consistent play out of your first round pick and I don't see you getting that from either of these RBs

Round Two:

Crazy Man Love To: Tom Brady (QB- NE). Now normally, me persoanlly, I don't draft QB before the 6th round, but that doesn't mean no QBs warrant first round drafting. Normally, that space is reserved for Peyton Manning but this year it should go to Brady. I think, on paper, New England has a better offense than they did when they went 16-0 after getting Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway in the off season. Now I can guarantee Bill Bellichick won't be as pass-crazy and dick-ish as he was in 07, but I think Brady will still put first round numbers

You Can Burn In Hell: Marion Barber (RB- Dal). I think he's a physical rusher who can push his way for extra yards, even when there's nothing there. Wait, scratch that, he WAS a physical rusher who blah blah blah. He now has Felix Jones breathing down his neck and even when Jones went down midway through the year, Barber did not step up his game and be the touchdown vulture that he once was when he had Julius Jones starting ahead of him. Maybe Barber isn't really a starter or maybe his physical rushing style forced him to suck sooner than he's like, but either way, I think you can get much better value at the RB position elsewhere in the draft

Round Three:


Crazy Man Love For: Roddy White (WR- Atl). For the most part, everyone I've seen drafted in the third round deserves to be there but I thought I'd give some love to White because I bet not many people have heard of him. But he's put back to back 1000 yard season together and he's a got a great young talent throwing to him who's only gonna get better, which make White better.

You Can Burn In Hell: Ryan Grant (RB- GB).
Partially because being a Bears fan, I hate anything Green Bay and because partially he had to get 30+ carries in order to barely gain 100+ yards against Indy last year (who had the worst rushing defense at the time GB played them). I think people are drafting him because of the second half he had in 07 and I just don't think he'll be that good. I think there's a reason the New York Giants, who had Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughs, traded away Grant and not the other four (Jesus fuck Christ, why couldn't the Bears be THAT deep. Fuck Garrett Wolfe...)

Round Four:

Crazy Man Love For: Pierre Thomas (RB- NO). 1) He's a U of I alum and their gonna get love any way they can 2) I hate Reggie Bush so much that anyone who is proven better than him gets a huge nod in my book 3) I've seen him go as high as the 2nd round in some mock drafts so he's a steal in the 4th

You Can Burn In Hell: Run DMC Darren Mcfadden (RB- Oak). Again, even this deep, I still think there's better value if you know where to look. Plus, his team, the Oakland Raiders, is run by THE WORST owner is all sports. I think they're gonna be down a lot forcing the Raiders to pass more and I think that entire team sucks anyway and you want no part of any offense player besides their kicker. Serioiusly.

Round Five:

Crazy Man Love For: Antonio Gates (TE- SD). He's been one of the most consistent TE year after year after year after year after year, well you get the idea. I think he's QB Phillip Rivers has turned a corner and I think he'll be the best TE as always.

You Can Burn In Hell: Reggie Bush (RB- NO). Besides TEs, there's actually a shit ton of guys who are pretty bad and are going in the fifth round (Chad Ochocicno, Roy E Williams), but because I hate Reggie Bush SO FUCKING MUCH just because ESPN hyped him up to be the next Jim Brown when in reality he's the next A-Train. Plus he's not good at football and will lose more playing time to the undrafted U of I alum- Pierre Thomas

Round Six:


Crazy Man Love For: Anthony Gonzalez (WR- Indy). I've seen him fall as far as the ninth round so obviously if you think you can get Gonzalez later do it and don't rush to get him in the 6th; however, you will benefot as well if you draft him this high as well. He has Peyton Manning throwing to him, Reggie Wayne opposite of him to take pressure off of him, and no Marvin Harrison to steal his throws. He has great DVOA and DYAR numbers and I think he's gonna get thrown to more, so I expect big things from A-Gon (move over Adrian)

You Can Burn In Hell: Jerricho Cotchery (WR- NYJ).
You know depending on how stupid your league was in drafting way too many WR early, Cotchery might actually be a useful pick and a nice #2 or back up, but I still think he belongs in the 8th or ninth round. In one mock draft I was in, Cotchery actually went a round ahead of Anthony Gonzalez. Don't get me wrong I think he can still play (Hernandez, don't get TOO upset over this) but anything above the 8th round for him is ridiculous

Part II for rounds 7-16 to come later.

2 comments:

  1. I hate sebastian janikowski

    I would actually draft bush in the 5th just because i think he "should" score lots of touchdowns with his eyes closed, which they usually are.

    Also I like ochocinco as a wide receiver. you cant overlook the numbers(when palmer is healthy). hell, even when john kitna was his QB

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  2. I know, for some reason I love Palmer, yet I'm down on Ochocinco, but I don't know, I just don't like Ochocinco and I think he's passed his prime

    I hate Reggie Bush SO MUCH and I think he'll be really bad. But please draft him, because I can guarantee that my last RB drafted (which will probably be in the last round) will score my fantasy points than Bush.

    kickers are almost worthless in FF but I think Janikowski will be fine only because that Raiders offense is so bad that they'll be forced to kick it a lot

    ReplyDelete

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