For all those who saw the Patriots/Colts game tonight (what else would you be doing? Homework? Hanging out with loved ones? Why?), The Pats were up 34-28 with a little under two minutes left to go. The Pats were on there own 30 and Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and short. They don't convert and surprise surprise, Peyton Manning, with only 30 yards and a minute left to go, scores a TD and the Colts win the game 35-34. Now I can imagine that people all over this blogosphere and on ESPN will be criticizing Belichick for this awful decision. Now if I was the coach and I'm sure everyone else would have punted it on fourth down, but I'm going to sort of defend Belichick.
It has actually been statistically proven actually to never punt on 4th down, and some high school coach never punts and his team is amazing and wins State like every year. The reason behind this is that the extra yards a team has to go after a punt (assuming not an awesome run back which is always plausible) is not worth the risk of not keeping your drive alive. So if mathematicians from Universities tell you not to punt, why punt?
The Pats have an amazing offense and they almost converted that 4th down. And if they converted, they were guaranteed to win the game. And just because the Pats punted the ball doesn't mean they WOULD have won. The punt return could have been amazing/ brought back for a TD. And even if a fair catch was called, who's the say that Peyton Manning still wouldn't have scored a TD like he's done so many times before? Plus, Belichick probably didn't trust his defense (and I don't blame him). If the Pats had punted and still lost the game, people wouldn't criticize him. So why criticise him for going for it? It's obviously a huge risk and one that ended up backfiring, but I don't think the decision itself was as bad as people said. And if Faulk had held onto the ball, then that decision would have made amazing for the Pats.
Again, I would have punted it and I'm sure if Belichick knew he wouldn't convert the 4th down, he would have done so as well. But I'm gonna say it was as bad of a decision as people make it out to be.
I predict 100 years from now, with the advent of supercomputers run on nuclear fusion and 11 foot tall aliens playing football with coaches who've had the entire philosophy of football programed into their brains, they will still all punt on 4th and a long 2, with 2 minutes left in the game, on their own 28, even if brett favre himself is leading the opposition, which he just might. By then he'll be at about 1850 consecutive starts at QB
ReplyDeleteIf they would have got the down and won the game people would be saying it was a great call.
ReplyDeleteagreed
ReplyDeleteand in the future, all coaches will realize that it statistically is a bad idea to even punt