Before listing the best and worst baserunners by position, James compares Chone "Gone" Figgins (23-for-43 going from first-to-third on a single and 26-for-31 second-to-home on a single) with Prince Fielder (1-for-45 first-to-third on a single) and David Ortiz (2-for-16 second-to-home on a single), Emilio Bonafacio (10-for-10 first-to-home on a double) with Mike Lowell (0-for-10), and Denard Span (moved up a base 31 times on a WP, PB, Balk, SF, or Defensive Indifference) with Geoff Blum (never advanced a base on any of those plays).
| BEST | WORST | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Kurt Suzuki | +15 | C | Yadier Molina | -26 | |
| 1B | Carlos Pena | +9 | 1B | Adrian Gonzalez | -29 | |
| 2B | Chase Utley | +50 | 2B | Robinson Cano | -23 | |
| 3B | Chone Figgins | +35 | 3B | Mike Lowell | -27 | |
| SS | Jason Bartlett | +30 | SS | Yuniesky Betancourt | -28 | |
| LF | Ryan Braun | +35 | LF | Juan Rivera | -40 | |
| CF | Michael Bourn | +55 | CF | Kosuke Fukudome | -11 | |
| RF | Ichiro Suzuki | +32 | RF | Gabe Kapler | -19 |
Most people will tell you that we should have Carl Crawford in left field ahead of Ryan Braun, and people will tell you that Yadier Molina actually runs well for a catcher, or at least for a Molina. We don't base this on reputation. Carl Crawford was 8-for-27 going first-to-third on a single. Ryan Braun was 15-for-41, which is better. Crawford was 4-for-9 scoring from first on a double. Braun was 7-for-9. Crawford moved up 24 bases on Wild Pitches, Passed Balls, Balks, Sacrifice Flies and Defensive Indifference. Braun moved up 26 times. Crawford grounded into 7 double plays in 136 DP situations; Braun grounded into 7 in 172 situations. Braun was thrown out 5 times on the bases. Crawford was thrown out 10. Crawford is a very good baserunner—the second-best baserunner among major league left fielders in 2009, including his base stealing—but Braun was better. And Yadi Molina grounded into 27 frigging double plays, which is a record even for a Molina brother.
As James points out, "the difference between the best baserunner in the majors (Michael Bourn) and the worst (Juan Rivera) was 95 bases, or about 24 runs" [editor's note: equal to about 2 1/2 wins].
WHAT!? DME was wrong on a baseball stat!? I find this hard to believe.
ReplyDeleteWhere did you find all this Bill James stats like his defensive players and this baserunning stuff?
Different models measure different things. It's not just baserunning. there's SB efficiency, outs on the basepaths, etc. al. I just took total base runs created minus SB runs created. Thats the diff b/w Utley and Pujols. If you dont like it, contact BP.
ReplyDeleteHere is BP's data:
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=75244
As you will notice, Alcides Escobar was the best baserunner on the team. Braun was positive, but not the most positive, per se. If it comes between BP and BJ, i pick BP.
Michael Bourne's EQBRR was +15.0 runs. Melvin Mora was ranked the worst at running the bases at -9.0. That's a 24 run difference. Oh what do you know.
So yeah, Fuck You TBO
BP also ranked Juan Rivera (EQBRR of -3.4) as the 38th worst. not dead last. Different. data calculations. It's not apples to apples. Never said Braun sucked. Just that he wasnt ranked as high on BP data set.
ReplyDeleteJerk
you show me how BP calculates their shit and then we can talk. I have no idea what data they are using, besides the names of the individual stats they use to calculate EQBRR
ReplyDeletewe've been hating on BP all year long and now you are defensing them. Awesome
you really think jason kendall is a better baserunner than ryan braun? really? Have you seen kendall run? This was before your time, back when he played for the pirates, but he ran through first base one time, and snapped his ankle such that the bone came out of his skin. Yeah, i'm sure he's better
ReplyDelete