When it comes to forecasting players, there are many readily available metrics to assist you (BABIP, LD%, ISO, xFIP, GB/FB rate, HR/FB rate, et. al.). However, as player's change teams and leagues, the past does not predict the future as well as it normally does. Defenses change, park factors change, and even the hitters change.
Thankfully, there are a few resources out there, such as ESPN.com's park factor and THT's league change analysis for pitchers and hitters, designed to remedy such a problem. THT also has two park factor resources which can be found here and here.
Dave Golebiewski over at Fangraphs did one such analysis of Jake Peavy earlier today and projected him as a 3.85 FIP guy at the Cell in 2009.
Check these links out. Bookmark them.
You bring up a good point. Besides the typical factors of age, health, and the factors you mentioned there are many others. Look at David Wright playing in a new park and his power disappearing. You also have hitters playing in the New Yankee stadium. That makes it hard to forecasting players, just so many elements to be accurate.
ReplyDeleteI understand that Peavy is not going to be the same player he was in San Diego. I understand that moving to the AL and moving to a hitters park will inflate his numbers. But to say Peavy will have a 3.85 FIP seems outrageous. Gavin Floyd only had a 3.77 FIP. Are we going to say that Peavy is less talented and has shittier stuff that Gavin Floyd?
ReplyDeletePeavy still has great stuff, still has the ability to strike guys out and not walk guy and that stuff doesn't change
Plus, I think there are other factors that need to be taken into consideration. 1) Peavy will probably get to play the Royals like 4 times a year 2) Peavy still has away that he plays in and 3) I think Don Cooper is a damn fine pitching coach that will help Peavy adjust.
I can see Peavy being top 10 in AL SO and have like a 3.5 ERA with 15 wins. Unfortunately he won't be the ace the Sox are paying him to be, but you don't lose talent just because you switch league and ballparks
Also, I definitely am not taking him in fantasy 1) There were way too many Sax fans in our league last year that will overvalue the shit out of him 2) He'll probably go based on his San Diego numbers and that's too high. But if everyone in the league values him correctly, I'd take him like where Gallardo and Vazquez went this year