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Sunday, December 20, 2009

Now I Know "DYAR" and "DVOA" Are Fake Stats

For the three of you that read my football analysis, you know I like to use what I call football sabermetrics. These are stats that Football Outsiders use to measure the "true" worth of football players, because since Moneyball came out, every single "traditional" stat in any professional sport is worthless. I was recently looking through their stats and guess which player was #1 in DYAR, a main football sabermetric stat which is supposed to measure the Total Value of all players: Tom Brady. Now I know ESPN, Bill Simmons, and myself love to jerk it to the greatness that is Tom Brady, but y tu Football Outsiders? As good of a player as Tom Brady is, I don't see any way to claim that Tom Brady has been better than either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees this year. Hell, it's hard to make the argument that Brady is better than Favre, Rivers, or Schaub this year.

Categories that Brady is NOT first in: YPA, QB Rating, Completion Percentage, TD/INT ratio, TDs, Yards, Completions, Attempts, Yards per Game, and just for fun, longest pass thrown. Now yes, Brady is top three in most of these categories, but both Manning and Brees have him beat in essentially ALL of these categories. In fact...

Categories Drew Brees is better than Tom Brady: QB Rating*, YPA*, Completion Percentage*, TD%, Touchdowns**, Interceptions, TD/INT ratio, Yards, YPG. Tom Brady has a 0.1 better INT%, has thrown more passes, and has thrown a longer pass than Brees this year. They both has 15 sacks.

Categories Peyton Manning is better than Tom Brady: QB Rating, YPA, Completion Percentage**, TD%, Touchdowns*, TD/INT ratio, Yards, YPG. To Brady's credit, he turns it over less, but does 4 INTs and a 0.6 INT% really bump you up THAT much higher?

*first in league
** second in league

There are only two categories that Brady is leading all QBs in: good looks and hottest chick he's banging.

Maybe Football Outsiders takes DME's Grindiness Per Nine stat and incorporates it in into because of Brady's three Superbowl rings? Seriously, how does ANYONE justify Brady being THE BEST quarterback this year?

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