Why Is Jonny Gomes Unemployed?

As, I've previously asserted, Jonny Gomes is sort of an Adam Dunn-lite. The only real difference between the two is the walk rate (Gomes is a career 9.9% walker, while Dunn's career walk rate is a majestic 16.9%; league average is under 9%). Of course, when you have a player who, like Dunn, makes contact with only 70% of his offerings (league average is around 80%) and strikes out a ton (32.2% career strike out rate), you probably want them to get on base by walking (or getting plunked) as much as possible because they probably aren't going to hit their way on (much to Dusty Baker's chagrin). Still, that hasn't kept Gomes from posting a league average .330 OBP through out his career. But we all know you don't hire Gomes for his walking abilities or his fielding talents. It's that sexy .230 career ISO that attracts, or should attract, major league teams. You know who also has a .230 career ISO? Chase Utley. You know who doesn't? Joe Mauer.

Now I'm not here to advocate that Jonny Gomes is going to light the world on fire for any team he plays for. That .274 ISO last season is probably going to come down and even though his K% has improved each of the last few seasons, Gomes is still going to strike out around 30% of the time and force teams to stomach a .250 BA and .330 OBP somewhere in the lineup. He's still going to hit a lot of extra base hits, however, and it's not like he's got the feet or body of a Molina brother. It beckons the question of what can we expect from Gomes in 2010?

Last season, Gomes hit .267/.338/.541 (.879 OPS) with 20 HRs and a .313 BABIP in half of a season of game play. According to THT's xBABIP calculator, Gomes' luck neutral BABIP (xBABIP) was a somewhat comparable .306. As a result, Gomes' xHit barely takes a hit, falling from 75 to 74. Even if we assume that lost hit was a home run, Gomes would have hit .263/.334/.527 (.861 OPS) in a luck-neutral environment in 2009.

So what does that say for 2010? It says that Gomes .373 wOBA was not entirely unreasonable and that even with a slight decline in power, a .350 wOBA is entirely plausible for Gomes. Gomes's fielding inabilities will likely counterbalance his offensive contributions, but when you account for other adjustments like positional (-7.5 runs) and replacement (+20 runs), you are left with a +1 or so WAR player. That would make Gomes a $3.5 to 4 million dollar player in terms of 2010 free agency dollars. CHONE seems to agree with me, claiming that Gomes is a +2 run bat and -6 run glove over 150 games. That's nothing special, but Gomes won't cost you much and it's an investment worth taking a risk on given Gomes' clear power upside.