Inexplicable Baseball Moves: The Curtis Granderson Trade

In an earlier article where I evaluated Curtis Granderson's offensive prospects for 2010, I said the following of Curtis Granderson and Johnny Damon:

"...Curtis Granderson's luck-neutralized 2009 line, if he played for the Yankees rather than the Tigers last season, would have been .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS). By contrast, Johnny Damon, eight years Granderson's senior, hit .282/.365/.489 (.854 OPS) with 24 homers. It is also worth noting three additional points. First, Damon's UZR/150 last season was -12.1 in LF, while Granderon's posted a +1.6 UZR/150 in CF. Second, Johnny Damon has not once played in even 150 games since 2004. Granderson, by contrast, has played in 155+ games in three of his four major league seasons (he played in 141 games during his injured 2008 season). Finally, Curtis Granderson is owed $25.75 million through 2012 (including a $2 million buy out for 2013), while he can be had for an additional $11 million in 2013. On the other hand, Johnny Damon was paid $13 million last year and is looking for his last lucrative major league contract before he is too old to command a contract of both satisfactory length and pay. Even if Damon was willing to take a pay cut to come back to the Yankees for three years, $30 million, Granderson is the better, younger, and cheaper player."

In a separate article evaluating the blockbuster deal between the Tigers, Yankees and Diamondbacks, I concluded the Tigers "won" in the deal, despite trading away "one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense," because "[t]hey shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation."

But then the Tigers did something crazy. Despite the poor economy and state of the team's prospective future finances, they started spending. First they brought in Jose Valverde, a relief pitcher who has not posted a +1 WAR season since 2007 and whom CHONE projects as being worth +7 runs above average in 2010, a 2-year, $14 million deal. Even if 31 year old Jose Valverde, who has never been worth +2.0 WAR in a single season, is worth +3.5 WAR cumulatively across the next two seasons, it will come at the cost of an additional $250,000 than it would have cost the Tigers to keep Curtis Granderson for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Curtis Granderson has been worth at least +3.4 WAR each of the past four seasons.

Now, according to MLB Trade Rumors, the Tigers have signed Johnny Damon to a 1-year, $8 million contract. Now do not get me wrong, Johnny Damon, who CHONE projects as a +9 bat and +10 glove in left per 150 games (or, with the -7.5 positional and +20 replacement level adjustment, +3.2 WAR), is a good value at $8 million. However, this deal cannot be looked at in a vacuum. It must be analyzed in its full economic context. Curtis Granderson is owed $36.75 million through 2013 if his 2013 club option is exercised. Despite being worth "only" +3.4 WAR last season, he did so with a .275 BABIP -- the lowest of his career. Granderson's xBABIP was .301; his luck-neutral slash line (assuming all additional hits would have been singles) was 268/.353/.486. Granderson's career BABIP is .321. Assuming that Granderson's line comports with his 2009 xBABIP and not his career BABIP in 2010, he looks to be a +4.0 or better WAR player. There is absolutely no reason why Granderson cannot post +3.5 or better WAR seasons through the end of his contract (age 32 season).

Let's pretend that Granderson's 2013 contract is not exercised and he is instead paid the $2 million buy out. That would be $25.75 million owed to him over the next three years. Assuming Granderson posts a meager +3.5 WAR per season for the next three seasons, he will be getting paid +10.5 WAR at less than $2.6 million per win (market value this offseason was ~$3.5 million per win).

The Tigers brought in Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde for a total cost of $22 million. The two will probably provide a total +5.5 WAR for the Tigers, best case scenario. Max Scherzer, one of the game's top young talents, seemingly keeps this whole situation balanced in Detroit's favor, it is important to note that the Tigers also gave up Edwin Jackson (+3.4 WAR last season, perhaps +3.0 WAR next season) in the process. Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are nice guys to have, but even the most talented relief pitchers provide teams with minimal economic value. Austin Jackson hasn't shown himself to be anything but a 4th outfielder to date.

At best, the Tigers offseason was a wash. The team's big mistake was the expensive addition of Jose Valverde at a whopping $14 million. There goes all the money the team was trying to save to lock up Verlander long term, while keeping Miguel Cabrera around while providing leeway for the mistake know D-Train's contract and for allowing Magglio's ridiculous $18 million option to vest. Maybe the Tigers can just not give Magglio 500 PA in 2010. That would save them some cash next offseason, though I'm sure Dombrowski will find some way to pointlessly spend it.