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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Players Who Seemingly Belong In DH Roles

In calculating a player's total sum value, Fangraphs accounts for four factors: Battting (BRAR), Fielding (FRAR), Position (Fangraphs' version of FRAR values all defense equally and thus adjusts FRAR to accord for the difficulty of skill required at position), and Replacement ("the expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs per 600 PA"). The cumulative value of a player is termed "Wins Above Replacement" or WAR. The better the WAR, the better the player.

WAR, being a composite of two primary metrics, can be increased through offense and/or defense. In the post-steroid, post-Moneyball era, defense has become the underrated commodity of the market; the new OBP. This is how Boston managed to lock up Mike Cameron, a defense-first 4.1+ WAR CF each of the last two and three of the last four seasons, for a two-year deal worth under $16 million (the market value for a win this offseason had been approximately $3.5 million). Not only is defense so often underrated (I'm guilty of it too), it is so often ignored. Plenty of DH's types are parading around in non-DH roles, while other teams utilize players whose defense makes up a useful component of their WARs in the DH role. In a previous article, I noted the following:
As a RF, Dunn's cumulative batting and fielding production gets a -7.5 positional adjustment (UZR measures all defense equally, then accounts for differences in fielding difficulty between positions thru positional adjustments). As a DH, Dunn would get a flat -17.5 positional adjustment and a zero fielding rating. In other words, as a DH, Dunn just get -17.5 runs subtracted from his batting line. As a RF (or LF, for that matter), Dunn gets -7.5 subtracted from his batting line in addition to his lackluster fielding. Thus Dunn, like anyone with a consistent -10 or worse fielding glove at RF/LF, belongs in a DH role.
Fangraphs gives the following defensive position adjustments (all are per 162 games and catchers are excluded, as Fangraphs does not rate their fielding abilities):
  • First Base: -12.5 runs
  • Second Base: +2.5 runs
  • Shortstop: +7.5 runs
  • Third Base: +2.5 runs
  • Left Field: -7.5 runs
  • Center Field: +2.5 runs
  • Right Field: -7.5 runs
  • Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
Any player who plays a certain level of bad defense at his position should be relegated to a DH-only role. That level of bad defense per position is at least follows:
  • First Base: -5.0 UZR/150
  • Second Base: -20.0 UZR/150
  • Shortstop: -27.5 UZR/150
  • Third Base: -20.0 UZR/150
  • Left Field: -10.0 UZR/150
  • Center Field: -20.0 UZR/150
  • Right Field: -10.0 UZR/150
How many players meet this mark? Here is a weighted list (using total data from the past three calendar years, min. 1200 innings, with a requirement that they have a job as of today) of players with UZR/150 who meet the "DH-only" grade by position; guys you'd rather have at DH than these positions.

First Base:
  • Dmitry Young (-13.3)
  • Mike Jacobs (-13.0)
  • Jason Giambi (-13.0)
  • Kevin Millar (-5.9)
  • Prince Fielder (-5.7)
  • Ryan Garko (-5.1)
  • Billy Butler and Aubrey Huff were both borderline
Second Base:
  • None, Alexei Ramirez was the worst at -10.6
Shortstop:
  • None, Jeff Keppinger was the worst at -17.4, while Yuniesky Betancourt's 2009 FRAR was a brutal, borderline DH -23.9 UZR/150
Third Base:
  • None, Edwin Encarnacion was the worst at -14.6
Left/Right Field:
  • Brad Hawpe (-33.0)
  • Ken Griffey Jr. (-25.0)
  • Adam Dunn (-24.0)
  • Jermaine Dye (-22.4)
  • Manny Ramirez (-18.9)
  • Delmon Young (-18.9)
  • Vladimir Guerrero (-16.3)
  • Pat Burrell (-15.9)
  • Jason Kubel (-15.4)
  • Jose Guillen (-14.5)
  • Chris Coghlan (-14.5)
  • Michael Cuddyer (-13.0)
  • Carlos Quentin (-13.9)
  • Jason Bay (-13.6)
  • Chase Headley (-13.3)
  • Bobby Abreu (-12.9)
  • Chris Duncan (-11.6)
  • Hideki Matsui (-10.4)
  • Raul Ibanez, Ryan Braun, Brian Giles and Andre Ethier were all borderline
Center Field:
  • Dexter Fowler (-20.0)
Things of note from this list. There are no teams with non-1B infielders who are so bad that they belong in a DH-role. Dexter Fowler (sample size?) aside, no player at a "premium" defensive position was a total vacuum (well, except for Yuniesky Betancourt) over the past three years. The corner outfield/first base position was a different story. Here, we find a cumulative 24 players who do not belong on the field. That's ten more players than there are DH positions in the AL, highlighting the "DH's who can't find (satisfactory) work" issue that has prevailed over the past two offseasons. On top of these 24, you find another six players who are borderline DH-types (at least at their positions).

Of the players on this list, Chris Coghlan sticks out most as a guy who does not belong on this list. Scouting reports say that he is at least an average defensive 3B and Chone Figgins epitomizes the "Good 3B, Bad OF" paradigm.

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