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Saturday, February 13, 2010

Sexy Rexy's Drafting Tips: Baseball Edition

Because my football drafting tips helped you out so much, I'm here to help you get prepared for the 2010 baseball season. Sure, some of these tips might be overlaps from my football post, but hey, maybe there's a constant that you should keep in mind.

Pre-Draft:
1) DO RESEARCH! This may seem obvious, but you'd be surprised on how little this is actually done. A lot of people will draft by name value alone and they haven't really seen how exactly players will turn out. I've already seen some of Yahoo!'s projections and they are just awful, especially for pitchers. Those sites just give you a guide but base where you draft a player upon the numbers YOU think he will perform, not Yahoo! Last year DME knew how good a guy like Javier Vazquez would be based upon his own research. So why draft a pitcher Yahoo! tells you will be a top five pitcher when you can actually get a top five pitcher in the later rounds? Plus, doing your own research will help you get better value picks

2) Use sabermetrics. You can easily win your league without doing so, but using stats like FIP, xFIP, BABIP, and xBABIP sure makes it a hell of a lot easier and gives you an extra advantage.

3) Mock draft. Now that you know which players who like or dislike, it's extremely helpful to see where other people are evaluating other players. This will not only make you more comfortable when you do finally sit down and draft, but it would also allow you to time to plan a coherent drafting strategy so you can take all the player YOU want to.

4) Look at league scoring. A guy like Carlos Pens or Adam Dunn are a helluva lot more valuable in a league that doesn't use batting average and instead uses a stat like OPS or OBP. I created a league last year that didn't use BA and instead used OBP and SLG, but people treated the draft like it was normal 5x5 scoring. Most leagues I've seen don't use the traditional 5x5 stats (BA, HR, SB, R, RBI, W, SV, K, WHIP, and ERA) and whatever stats your league uses should affect which players to target.

Actual Drafting Strategy:
5) 3B, 1B, SP, RP are very deep. If you have a top pick, I'm not saying don't draft Albert Pujols or A-Rod just because the position is deep, but keep that in mind. You don't necessarily need to draft Evan Longoria when you can get say Gordan Beckham six rounds later or so (Admittedly this isn't the best analogy because Longoria WILL be better than Beckham next year and it won't be close, but you get my point, right?).

6) SS and 2B are very shallow. I wouldn't be against you reaching to get a guy like Ian Kinsler or Derek Jeter because once the top tiered guys go off the board, you're pretty much SOL. However, if that does happen to you and you do miss out on a top tiered SS or SB, wait until the very end of your draft to get that position because you'll end up hurting yourself getting the guy at the top of the second tier

7) C are like TEs. In football, there are really only four top TE that are worth anything and every other TE is pretty much the same player. The same is true for catchers in baseball. I personally think (and this is true in both football and baseball) that you should always try to get the stud for your team and if that means reaching, then so be it. But like with short stops and second basemen, if you don't get a stud, WAIT!

8) It's OK to neglect an entire category. NOTE: Only do this for head-to-head leagues, for Roto this is an awful awful awful awful awful idea and you are guaranteed not to win your league if you do this in Roto. However, if you design your team to be dominant in 9 categories, then who cares if you don't win the 10th? I was in a league last year where a guy only got 3 saves all year, didn't draft a closer, and won the league. However, in Roto, you can focus a little less on a category like SV or SB, but make sure you're not too low in that category because that will mess with your overall numbers.

9) Use your bench for pitching. In leagues where you can only update your team once a week, then it doesn't matter what your bench looks like. But if you can update your team daily, then you are maximizing your entire team efficiently by using your bench on pitching. Pitchers will only pitch once every five games, whereas a batter will most likely play every single game. This means that you will be able to use and start essentially all of your pitchers you have, but not necessarily be able to start all of your hitters. This is called streaming your pitchers.

Many people frown upon this because they think it's just a cheap way for an owner to accrue more Ks and W's than their opponent- and it is to a degree. But you need to do what's best for YOUR team and streaming pitchers will help YOU out. Some leagues have an innings limit so be careful about that because streaming pitchers could screw you over in the long run. Also, make sure your bench is full of GOOD pitchers. Don't just have pitchers on your bench just because.

10) Don't be afraid to draft a closer's back up over a closer. Why draft Brad Lidge now when you can get Ryan Madson a few rounds later? When Joe Blow was on the Indians a few years back, people were drafting him just because "he was the starter". You're better off drafting the back up. However, don't go TOO overboard with this. I've been mock drafting where Thorton gets drafting with guys like Brian Wilson and Bobby Jenks doesn't get drafting at all. Jenks is still the closers guys and trust me, his job is more secure than you might think. At least draft Thorton AND Jenks.

11) It's OK to "reach". I hate that phrase "reaching" to begin with. First, reaching is mainly based upon the ranking your website gives and those rankings are garbage. Second, your goal is to build the best team and if by doing so you would take a player that you like that maybe other people wouldn't have taken that round, to hell what other people think. Those pre-season projections are probably wrong to begin with and you've already done your homework for yourself.

12) Be willing to change your drafting strategy. Not only should you have back up target players in case the players you were targeting get taken, but be willing to adjust based on what everyone in the league is drafting

Post Draft Day
13) Always look to get better. As in all fantasy leagues, it never hurts to make trades or pick guys in FA to add to your team. And always think of players by production numbers, not by name value. Name value can help you make trades but don't be afraid to lose a "big name player" you have if they're not or will not perform

14) There's a fine line when making trades.You need to balance between trying to help your team versus giving away awesomeness and getting crap in return. This seems obvious, but trust me, it's not. At least for me, many a-times I'll make a trade because I think my team is getting better overall and it ends up biting me in the ass. (And by many a-times, I mean like all the time). Hey, if you're like DME and can make awesome trades, then go for it. But based upon GOI's football season, Cubsfan, TBO, and myself will tell you we all bad some really dumb trades. Hindsight is always 20/20 sure, but be weary and know your skill set when making trades. Don't be afraid to make a trade but don't be so gung-ho about it either.

15) Be patient. I should practice what I preach, but I don't here. I know if I'm patient my team absolutely would have been a lot better and those owners who drafted and dropped Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee last year are kicking themselves for not being patient. You obviously shouldn't be too patient because the player you have might just suck and never get better, but if you're confident with how you drafted, then just be patient.

16) Always have fun. I know this is an overused cliche, but realize it's just fantasy baseball and nothing more. You can care how your team does, but just realize, this for what it is and have fun. Plus, your a loser anyway because you're playing fantasy sports.

2 comments:

  1. i have a joke that if Sexy Rexy owned 11 teams in one fantasy baseball league and DME owned 1, Sexy Rexy would still have no chance of winning

    ReplyDelete
  2. Oh, and you have done so much better than me? You have finished behind me in the football and baseball leagues for the past two years

    Plus, this is for all the five readers we have to help THEM draft

    ReplyDelete

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