I hate Adam Dunn because he's slow, he can't hit the ball, he's awful at defense, and he doesn't care about baseball. Oh wait, that's why baseball GM's hate Adam Dunn. I love the fact that Dunn is an on-base machine and hits 40 home runs like clockwork. I would love for him to be my team's DH. However, I do not like Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
Remember when I used to do your math homework back in HS? I think it stunted your math skills
ReplyDeleteGetting straight Cs first semester is exactly identical to getting straight Cs last semester. Maybe there is a psychological difference, but GPA wise, there is zero difference.
I believe you make a similar mistake with these "counting stats". They're not really counting stats, they are averages just like batting average. HR/AB, RBI/AB, R/AB. Or you can think of it as having hits instead of H/AB. Anyone can accumulate "counting stats", but Dunn is far superior to Scott in terms of accumulating those stats cause he has greater HR/AB, RBI/AB, R/AB. Batting average is simply a counting stat of who can accumulate the most hits. Hits you can find in free agency just like you can find home runs or RBIs. Get Mark Loretta or Skip Schumaker if you need batting average.
You're completely missing the point. If you get C's your first year, it's harder to bring that GPA up. And the more and more you get bad grades through your early years of high school or college or whatever, the harder it is to bring that GPA up. And getting C's in one semester is not like getting C's in both semester because you now have a bigger sample size which makes it that harder to bring it up. So why it still may show up as a 2.0, there is a difference between a 2.0 b/w 16 credit hours (a la ABs) and a 2.0 b/w 32 credit hours and so on.
ReplyDeleteFor anyone that has ever gotten a GPA in a later semester that was outside their norm can tell you, that GPA doesn't make a whole lot of difference of their overall GPA.
And I did not make a mistake with the counting stats. What are you talking about? All roto measures is the stat itself. It does not make a difference if Luke Scott gets 7 HRs within a week, it doesn't matter if Scott did it within 20 ABs or 10 ABs in terms of HR, it still shows up as an extra 7 HRs for your team.
And you never did my homework in high.
Literally, everything you've said in your comment in 100% wrong.
*never did my homework in high school
ReplyDeleteNo, everything you just said is wrong. I dont feel like explaining basic math again.
ReplyDeleteAnd i absolutely did your math worksheets for you during lunch
Maybe DME can explain to you why yr being a dumbass
I gave up trying to explain it to him long ago. Let him overvalue batting average.
ReplyDeleteEveryone can get hits. Not everyone can hit a home run.
OK, good luck retards
ReplyDeletefrom Matthew Berry's draft day manifesto: "I try to protect batting average, ERA and WHIP at all costs" He does this because he knows it's hard to make it up later
ReplyDeleteYes, all players gets hits. Good thing batting average isn't a measuring actual hits. By that logic you can just give up your draft because you can always get all these categories in free agency.
Me "over-valuing" batting average
is an opinion- which this this a blog-god forbid I give my opinion. But my logic behind it is just fact
assuming each semester is 16 credit hours
ReplyDelete1C- 2.0
1C, 1A- 3.0
2C, 1A- 2.666
3C, 1A- 2.5
4C, 1A- 2.4
5C, 1A- 2.333
etc
Now imagine each semester of getting C's is like each week of having a bad batting average and getting the semester of A's is getting a player that helps raise your BA. The more the season goes along, the harder it is to raise ur BA
How is that any different from all the other "counting" categories? Imagine getting 3 C's first semester is like your entire outfield hitting 3 home runs in april, you will have to make up those home runs later just like you would have to make up batting average, whip, and era. I just think the word "average" triggers something in your brain that makes you think irrationally
ReplyDeleteYes, there is a greater change in BA in April when the sample size is low, but assuming that everyone plays the entire season, everyone will have more or less the same number of atbats at the end, hence getting 10 hits in april is the same as getting 10 hits in september.
Same thing with GPA. We all graduate with about 120 credits. If you get 3 C's your first semester and I get 3 C's in my last semester, they will have the exact same effect on our GPA's. What happens in between is irrelevant because each credit hour is independent of the others.
eh
You can argue that BA is the most valuable commodity in fantasy baseball today, as it is the rarest skill and hardest to find in free agency, but dont make it out to be any different a stat from runs, RBI, HR...
ReplyDeleteBatting Average is absolutely the most fungible stat on the waiver wire. Very few players have high ISOs and very few waiver players are lead off hitters or even middle of the order guys. Thus R/RBI prospects are limited. SBs are available b/c every minor leaguer who is called up for 15 days tries to steal left and right to show the club he's valuable. Plus, pinch runners are aplenty.
ReplyDeleteBut batting average? Everyone gets hot at some point. A hit is not hard to find. Last year, Chris Davis hit .300+ for my team in 100 AB. There are plenty of 1-dimensional players like Martin Prado who will help your BA just fine. Plenty of Everth Cabreras to give you SBs. But how many Adam Dunns and Garrett Jones' stay on the wire all season?
oh and for the record, when DME makes a tag for his advice, he's a douche, but when SexyRexy does it no one calls him a douche?
ReplyDeleteWell you're a douche! haah