EDITOR'S NOTE: Do you not understand FIP, xFIP, or a lot about sabermetrics? I recommend you read this first before proceeding to get a better understanding of the arguments being made.
You can always find some nice value late in your draft. Sure, those players probably won't have the same numbers as your top ranked players, but still great value. Except for one guy- The Dirty Scherz aka Max Scherzer.
Yahoo! ranks Scherzer as the 263rd best player available. This is ridiculous. ESPN ranks Scherzer as the 152nd best player and MockDraftCentral ranks Scherzer as the 146th. So why the disparity?
I frankly can't answer that at all. All I can say is that Scherzer will be a top 25 pitcher next year so if you can get him around 260, then you've just gotten the best value in your draft. Based on DME's rankings, he ranks Scherzer as the 13th best pitcher available. While I don't have a complete list and rankings of pitchers, I did compile a list of how players rank based upon their past three years (if they had less than three years major league experience, I used my own judgment to compile their data). While my list is nowhere near scientific, I had Scherzer as the 5th best guy in K/9 and the 18th best guy for xFIP. Essentially, Scherz is going to strike out a ton of guys with a decently low ERA.
Scherzer has always been a top prospect so it should be no surprise that Scherzer excels. In his first full year as a starter he posted a 9.19 K/9 rate (good for 11th overall), a 3.87 FIP (33rd overall), and a 3.88 xFIP (27th overall). Sure that ERA isn't going to be top 10 good, but it's certainly should dip to way under 4.00 for next year. And moving to Detroit should only enhance his stats even more. Last year, the Tigers had the 4th best defense last year. Sure, the Diamondbacks were pretty good, but not better than the Tigers.
One last argument that could be made is that The Dirty Scherz is moving from the weaker league to the tougher one. OK, so his stats will drop a little bit. But also keep in mind, that Scherzer is young and should only get better with age.
Will Scherzer be a top 15 guy next year? Probably not. But would I take him ahead of Gavin Floyd? Jake Peavy? Jair Jurrgins? Roy Oswalt? Carlos Zambrano? You bet I would. And yet Scherzer is being ranked in Yahoo! as below all those guys. What's the deal Yahoo!?
First, let me say that I love Scherzer and that he's going to be on most of my teams this year.
ReplyDeleteBut I think you're shooting a little high as far as what we should actually expect out of him (I'll ignore his upside potential for now, which I grant is substantial).
Chone projects a 3.94 FIP (36th) and ZIPS a 3.89 FIP (oddly enough, also 36th, I believe CHONE and ZIPS just have a different K, BB, and HR environment).
The two projections agree on a 1.36 WHIP.
Chone K/9 is 8.65 and ZIPS is 8.34.
So I think there is some reason for caution as far as he goes. Usually, I try and look at a player's fangraphs's page to see if there has been any change in his Plate Discipline stats or Pf/x stats to support upgrading or downgrading his performance. But Scherzer hasn't provided us with enough major league data to risk it.
Regarding the move from AZ to DET, I think the change in defense (awful to good) and league (good to bad) will offset each other. This leaves any gain in value to growth due to age. But as you can see, the projection systems don't buy it, and all systems factor in age.
Now, getting to his upside, I agree that he's got great upside and could very well be a top 15 pitcher this year. And if you are in a keeper league, you almost have to take him if he is free because a combination of his low public perception this year, upside potential for this year, and long term upside make him very attractive.
Like Brennan in Burnham, I concur with the outcome, but have different reasoning.
ReplyDeleteScherzer is a top level talent with a violent delivery. This may limit his innings total either now or in the future. Note the large innings jump from 2008 to 2009.
Nonetheless, Scherzer has good command of his stuff. His BB/9 rate is average, while the K/9 is nothing short of stellar. The change in leagues I view as minimal, as the AL central is arguably the weakest in baseball. Also, the Diamondbacks defense combined with Chase Fields park scream Scherzer is primed for a better superflous stats (ERA, HR/9) season.
My baseline for 2010 Scherzer is a 3.85 FIP. Given the neutral, though slightly pitcher friendly, dimensions of Comerica and the Tigers quality defense (assuming Sizemore is as quality a defender as touted by the organization), I'm pegging Scherzer for a 3.60 ERA. I would not expect significantly more than 180 innings from Scherzer (the Tigers did a good job at preserving their young arms last year, see Porcello), but I would expect at least 180 strikeouts.
My final line?
3.6 ERA, 185 K, 182 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 14 W.
In a 12-team, 23 player league, 276 players will get drafted. For a guy Yahoo ranks #261, Scherzer is nothing less than a steal. It is criminal that he is ranked so low. His one weakness will be WHIP, but I think he can even beat my projection if the Tigers defense is as good as it was last year >> especially if Detroit moves Magglio to the DH spot.
I personally don't like Scherzer's BB/9 rate but I like his xFIP and his awesome K/9 and his age. But no matter your reasonings, there is absolutely no reason to rate Scherzer as the 70th best pitcher.
ReplyDeleteHere's some pitchers Yahoo! ranks ahead of Scherzer: Kenshin Kawakami, Justin Dushererererrer, Mark Buerhle, JA Happ, Erik Bedard, Steven Stassburg, Scott Kazmir, Phil Hughes, Bronson Arroyo, and worst of all: Brandon McCarthy!
I don't care how low you rank Scherzer, to have him rank as low as 70th and behind ALL those crappy/ HUGE injury risk pitchers is just ridiculous
Two things,
ReplyDelete1) What's wrong with Scherzer's BB/9 rate? I like anything under 3.5 and will stand anything under 4. The MLB average BB/9 rate last season was 3.46. Scherzer's was 3.33.
2) I took this argument out of the comments section; I actually forecasted Scherzer's 2010 ERA step by step. The result? 3.78