Carlos Zambrano Demoted To The Bullpen

Carlos Zambrano, holder of a 3.38 xFIP at the moment thanks to a refound strikeout talent and extremely abnormal/unlucky HR/FB%, was just demoted to the bullpen to make room for Ted Lilly. Not that Zambrano pitches like the ace he is paid like, but he easily one of the team's best pitchers. Zambrano is light years better than Big Fat Carlos Silva and he is substantially more durable (only last year did he fail to pitch 200+ innings and he still pitched 188). This move is so baffling that it hurts my brain. Lamenting the stupidity of the move further is almost pointless, as it is so self evident. I might rather have Omar Visquel DHing 162 games than Zambrano in the bullpen over Silva.

Lemme quote Fangraphs to get across the point that I think all Saber-minded Cubs fans are thinking at the moment:

Instead of getting 180-200 innings out of one of his top pitchers, Lou Piniella is instead opting for about 40 to 50 innings from him and then 100 to 150 out of a pitcher who projected as average at best coming into the season. The Cubs’ chances at the division were low coming into the season. If Piniella’s rash and irrational decision stays in place, they become virtually nil.

Carlos Zambrano might not be the Cubs best starting pitcher option at this point, but he is clearly one of the top five. Check out the "Rest of Season projections" for the Cubs' six primary starting pitchers options, courtesy of ZiPS (as of April 21):

• Ted Lilly: 177 IP, 3.70 ERA
  
• Ryan Dempster: 177 IP, 3.71 ERA
• Carlos Zambrano: 179 IP, 3.82 ERA
• Randy Wells: 152 IP, 4.14 ERA
  
• Tom Gorzelanny: 139 IP, 4.40 ERA
  
• Carlos Silva: 98 IP, 4.96 ERA

The ZiPS-projected difference between Silva and Zambrano this year (I use ERA, because ZiPS ERA projections have team defense factored in) is more than a full run per nine innings. Given the team's early struggles to score runs, that additional run per nine innings counts quite a bit.

MLB Trade Rumors asks readers if they have "[e]ver seen a $17.875MM reliever?" It took a horrendous 0-6 start (and 7.53 ERA) to the 2008 season before the Giants banished Barry Zito (paid $14.5 million that season) to the bullpen and even that experiment lasted all of zero games. To put this all in perspective, Barry Zito's xFIP was 6.27 when they "demoted" him, almost twice as high as Carlos Zambrano's current xFIP of 3.38.

This organization is in dire need of a top-down gutting and I am in dire need of a Tylenol. The post-Jim Hendry, Ryno-era can't come soon enough.

(On a side note, my first "real sports article" was published in print today. You can read the [heavily] edited version of it here.)

(Also, happy 100,000 visitors since instituting Site Meter in August! Congrats to everyone on this blog for a job well done.)