What The Hell Aaron Harang!

My philosophy this year was to stay away from any Cincinnati Reds player in fantasy baseball because I don't need to get sucked in to the black hole vortex that is Dusty Baker. Sure guys like Joey Votto are great and worth their draft pick, but it's just one of those personal philosophies of mine. And I also made sure to stay the ch-ell away from Derek Zoolander, er I mean any Reds pitcher. With Baker's amazing track record for breaking pitchers, I made sure to not draft any of them. And I think that's worked out somewhat well for me. We turn now to exhibit A: Aaron Harang.

I'm sure by now, except for maybe deep NL only leagues, maybe, Aaron Harang has been dropped in your league. This year, in 21 2/3 IP, Harang only has 15 K (6.23 K/9) to go along with 6 BB (2.49 BB/9, 2.50 K/BB), an 8.31 ERA to go along with his 6.36 FIP and 4.40 xFIP, and a 1.62 WHIP and no wins. Awful, awful numbers and I can see why people are jumping off the Harang bangwagon like it just hit an iceberg. I can hear the violins playing in the background.

However, I do see signs of hope, and if you can stash Harang on your bench or feel like your pitching depth is weak, here is why you should pick him up.

1) LOB % This is a representation of how many guys a pitcher leaves on base who do not come around to score. So far, Harang's LOB% is a measly 52.5%. That means a little under of half of the base runners Harang puts on comes around to score. To put that 52.5% into perspective- Harang has a career 73% LOB. Harang is fourth to last out of every single starter in LOB. I just don't see this low rate continuing.


2) HR/FB% About 11.5% of all fly balls a batter hits/ a pitcher gives up goes for home runs. This year, 23.1% of all of Harang's fly balls are leaving the y-ah-d. That's essentially double the amount of the average pitcher. Harang already has given up 6 HR. Sure Harang has always given up his share of home runs in the past (1.77 and 1.33 HR/9 respectively in the past two years) but they've never been close to the 2.49 HR/9 that Harang has this year.

This rate would concern me even more if Harang was becoming more of a fly ball pitcher. But that isn't the case. In fact, within Harang's four starts this year, he's burning worms and giving up less fly balls at the best rates he has ever in his career (yes, take this with a grain of salt that it's only four games- but still)

3) Game of Averages Sure sports are a game of inches, but baseball is a game of averages. Hitters go through slumps and then on hot streaks a few weeks later. A guy may hit .200 one week and then .400 the week after, but at the end of the year, he will still have that .300 batting average. I believe the same to be true for pitchers, especially for Harang.

Right now, Harang has given up 20 ER in about 21 IP. Harang has a career ERA of 4.31. In order for Harang to get to that level, Harang will have to pitch 21 scoreless innings (about). Sure, averages don't work out so neatly that every four games you pitch badly and the next four you pitch amazing, but no way in hell Harang pitches so badly that he can't drop is ERA to at least 4.50. Sure Harang has not had the best ERA, but to even drop to his normal crappy levels means some good games pitched ahead.

Moral of the story, if you can get Harang for cheap, go get him