What Happened To Pat Burrell?

EDITOR'S NOTE: Do you not understand BABIP, ISO or a lot about sabermetrics? I recommend you read this this first before proceeding to get a better understanding of the arguments being made.

From 2005 to 2008, Pat Burrell was a beast averaging 31 HRs per year, 16.75 BB%, and a .243 ISO. Sure he was inconsistent month to month which pissed off Philly fans (but really, what doesn't piss off Philly fans?) but with his awesome four year stretch, it seemed odd when Philly didn't re-sign Burrell. Especially when Tampa Bay gave Burrell (2 year/ $16 million), less money than the aging, Matt Kemp-powered Raul Ibanez (3 year/ $30 million). Tampa Bay seemed to be getting a steal. Sure Ibanez may be overpayed, but at least he's in the starting lineup for the Phillies as opposed to Burrell who just got designated for assignment.

So what gives? Why the decline of Burrell?

Sure it didn't help that Burrell was 32 years old when he went to free agency. But Ibanez was four years older and he's still productive. Sort of.

Over the past two seasons, Burrell's walk rate has plummeted from 16.75% to 11.2% and his power has bottomed out with an ISO under .150 (one home run per ~36 PA). Since coming to Tampa, Burrell's OBP has looked like Derek Jeter's batting average and his slugging percentage looked like Hanley Ramierz's batting average. Pat Burrell went from having Miguel Cabrera power, jumping down ten spots to Carl Crawford power. Awful, just awful numbers.

But why? Sure a decrease in numbers was to be expected because of Burrell's age, but why this drastic change?

I think the best place to start is to look at Burrell's plate discipline. Since 2006 on, Burrell swung at more and more pitches outside the strike zone and swung at more and more pitches. However, P.B. hasn't been missing those pitches outside the strike zone. This year (granted in only 92 PA), Burrell swung at a career 25.8% of pitches outside the zone but also hit a career 71.4% of those pitches.

Burrell has made less overall contact since coming to Tampa Bay (especially compared to his last two seasons in Philly; 81.1, 81.3, 79.1, 77.3 contact rates from '07-'10 respectively), but nothing TOO drastic to explain a complete drop off. Sure, his contact rate would help explain why he wasn't AS GOOD as he was in Philly and his age probably decreases his bat speed which just makes sense to see a natural decline in contact rate. However, you add him making less contact while striking out more and it certainly doesn't help your walk rate and OBP. But a .400 and .367 OBP in '07 and '08 to a .315 and .292 slide in '09 and '10 doesn't seem to be explained by his contact, walk, and strike out rates.

The biggest reason I can see for Burrell's low OBP is his BABIP. Last year and this year, Burrell had a .273 and .271 BABIP. Not too far off from his .271 and .276 BABIP from his previous two years. However, in his last two years in Philly, Burell had a batting average of .253. But in his time as a Ray, he's had an average of only .212.

So Burrell's low OBP can be explaining by his up tick for striking out more causing him to walk less and bad luck with his BABIP. But what about his power?

On average, 11.5% of all fly balls go for home runs. So I think the best place to start is by looking at Burrell's fly ball and ground ball propensities. Across the board, from GB/FB% to IFFB%, Burrell's numbers in Tampa Bay look exactly like they did from when Burrell was a Philly. However, the biggest disparity is the home run per fly ball percentage. From 2005 to 2008 Burrell had a 17.5, 18.1, 16.2, and 18.0 HR/FB%. Yet even though Burrell's FB% in his AL stint looked similar to that of the FB% of his NL stint, his home run rate looks vastly different. In 2009 Burrell had a 9.8 HR/FB% and a mere 7.4% this year. His home run per fly ball rate essentially cut in half since coming over to Tampa Bay.

My first reaction that the reason for this was because of the ballparks, but Citizens Bank is not THAT much of a home run friendly park over Tropicana. Last year, Citizens Bank ranked 16th in HR's given up and Tropicana was only 6 spots lower ranking 22nd overall. In 2008 there was a greater gap (11th for Citizen Bank vs 25th for Tropicana) but in 2010 more home runs have been hit in Tropicana than in Citizens Bank. But I think this fluctuation just goes to show how good the teams and offenses are of the Phillies and the Rays as opposed to the park themselves.

So why the sudden and drastic decline in Pat Burrell? Maybe his injuries have caught up to him. Maybe having Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the order gave Burrell better pitches to hit. But if you ask me, I say it's the natural progression of old age added with a lot of dumb luck and a sprinkle of the Grady Sizemore effect of striking out too much.