A Pointless Look At The 2008 Cubs

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...Bill James invented the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem (PET), a formula designed to estimate how many games a baseball team should, in theory, score based on their runs scored-allowed differential.

This theorem is calculated by the following formula:


In 2008, the Chicago Cubs led the major leagues with a 184 runs differential. They scored 855 and only allowed 671. Their PET calculated Win% was .619. Though the Cubs won 97 regular season games in 2008, their PET-predicted wins total was 100.25, meaning the Cubs "underperformed" by 3 wins.

Using the Cubs 2008 PET-based Win%, just how unlikely would it have been for the Cubs to win all 162 games? 1.725 x 10^-32% or 1 to 5.798 x 10³³.