According to Fangraphs' WAR system, Strasburg was worth +2.6 WAR in his limited pitching role for the Nationals this year. That extrapolates to approximately an +8.0 WAR full season. Now I realize that awards on not based on extrapolated values, but the logic of ROY voting befuddles me here on two accounts. First, Strasburg gets 0 votes, while Netali Feliz, in a mere +1.7 WAR showing, takes the AL ROY cake. Second, following the theme of voters should ignore extrapolated values, how in the hell did Buster Posey (+3.9 WAR) beat out Jason Heyward (+5.0 WAR) for the NL ROY award? And don't tell me it was because Posey was a catcher, because WAR factors in relative positions. Heyward got a -6.2 run positional adjustment off his bottom line, while Posey got a +3.5 run bump. With this extra WAR considered, Heyward was still more than a full win more valuable. In the absolute context of 5.0 versus 3.9, the 1.1 WAR differential may not seem like much. However, in terms of relative value, Heyward was 22% more valuable this season. So no matter how you argue it -- that we are not looking at extrapolated value or that we ARE looking at extrapolated value -- the voters got the NL ROY award wrong. Plain and simple, no argument to be made to the contrary.
Don't like WAR?
Heyward was also better than Posey in WPA, was more clutch (per Fangraph's leverage-indexed "Clutch" rating). Heyward's 91 walks this season is also top ten all time for a single-season for a player under age 21 (in good company with guys like A-Rod). Heyward also has better minor league numbers, better MLE numbers, better major league numbers, was a comparable defender (if we ignore position), produced more batting runs...Really, Posey only beat Heyward in K%...the power output for the two players was comparable this season and Heyward's numbers to date (and pedigree) indicate that he has the clear power upside.
Don't like WAR?
Heyward was also better than Posey in WPA, was more clutch (per Fangraph's leverage-indexed "Clutch" rating). Heyward's 91 walks this season is also top ten all time for a single-season for a player under age 21 (in good company with guys like A-Rod). Heyward also has better minor league numbers, better MLE numbers, better major league numbers, was a comparable defender (if we ignore position), produced more batting runs...Really, Posey only beat Heyward in K%...the power output for the two players was comparable this season and Heyward's numbers to date (and pedigree) indicate that he has the clear power upside.
Also, I think that AL ROY voters are too obsessed with relief pitching.
Ugh. I have a headache.
While you may not personally like the Posey over Heyword selection there's a difference between you thinking Posey proponents have a bad argument and have no arguments whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteWhat you're saying in this post is that Posey supporters have no arguments when what you should be saying is that they have a bad argument due to the two player's WAR
Same with Straussburg. While I completely and wholeheartedly agree that him receiving no votes is absurd when he pitched the same innings as AL ROY Feliz, again you're completely missing the point of bad argument vs. no argument.
While both pitchers essentially pitched the same amount of innings, the time frame for which they pitched those innings is completely different. Obviously Feliz pitched the entire year and Straussburg only pitched for like what a couple of months. Whether this bad logic should warrant no ROY votes is beyond me and was not my call to make, but you wanted someone to explain it to you.
And I don't think ROY voters are obsessed with relief pitching. Who else would you have given it to? There were only two other viable candidates: Austin Jackson (which you admit you have a deep seeded hatred for because of his BABIP this year) and Black Magic Woman who didn't get enough playing time to qualify (in voters minds). Plus you admitted to give it to Feliz by default: http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/10/dmes-end-of-season-awards.html
I see where you are coming from in the time frame argument, but still I feel strongly that Strasburg deserves SOME recognition. Same with Carlos Santana. Or will Santana be a rookie in 2011?
ReplyDeleteRe: Feliz, I do not mean to say he did not deserve it. Just that this is the 2nd reliever in two years to win...and last year it shouldnt have been bailey...
Oh I agree, the fact that Straussburg didn't get ANY votes is ridiculous but whatever, Posey and Heyword deserved it over him anyway
ReplyDeleteAgreed that probably Nelson Cruz and others deserved it over Bailey last year, but I'm not gonna fault the voters for voting in a RP this year