Board Bets

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Brief Analysis Of My 2010 Fantasy Phenoms Mock Draft

In addition to The Hardball Times mock draft from this past Sunday (write up coming soon), I also participated in a mock draft with various blogs around the web, hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. Though I was only able to stick around for 10 or so rounds (technical difficulties, which inevitably arise, pushed back the draft such that it overlapped dinner plans...).

You can check out my largely auto-drafted team by clicking here. Below is a quick analysis of my actual draft and my first few auto-draft picks.

With the tenth overall pick, I was pleasantly surprised to get both David Wright and Chase Utley with my first two picks. On my personal rankings chart, I have them ranked as the fifth and eighth best players to draft in the first round. Some may think Cano is a better first basemen than Utley, but HR/RBI/R are a wash and while Cano has the age/AVG upside, Utley’s speed and SB potential blow Cano out of the water. For instance, Utley stole more bases last season than Cano has accrued in his career. Utley still paced 22/18 in his worst full major league season. Yeah, I want that.

I reached for two picks with my third and fourth selection – Jason Heyward and Alex Rios. I legitimately view Heyward as a top ten outfielder this season, capable of a .300+/30/10-15/100/100 campaign and he was the best player in my eyes on the draft board. Even if I could have waited another pick to get him, it was not worth the risk. Had I seen Wainwright still on the board, however, I might have waited a pick. Likewise, I spent big on Rios, who I view as a better version of Shin-Soo Choo in the counting stats.

I drafted two stud pitchers early – Dan Haren and Zack Greinke. I am prone to do this because I like to build up elite strikeout stuff with my starters and take some late round gambles. Getting two ace-studs to anchor my staff allows me to make some risks without buying pepto bismol. I also took Mat Latos a couple of rounds later. I really like this hard-throwing young stud. He does everything great and plays at Petco. He is legitimately capable of repeating 2010.

Hunter Pence has the consistency of Adam Dunn, but is consistently overlooked by owners. He is a lock for a .285/25/15 campaign with solid R/RBI totals. Round 7/8 is where he should be going at the latest, btu he should be drafted ahead of guys like Matt Cain and Kelly Johnson.

Unfortunately, after pick #10, I had to leave and I let the computer auto draft me. I’m not the biggest Cahill fan for fantasy (I like him in real life), so I was not happy to see him autodrafted in round 11. Guys I was autodrafted later, including Kurod and Danks, are much better pitchers for fantasy in my mind.

Oh, and how did I get Carlos Pena in the 13th Round? That’s just stealing! .250/35/100/100 abound this year, mark my words.

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