Part One- Does Tim Tebow Deserve To Be A Pro Bowler? / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler In 2011 Series

Mostly my annual "Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler?" series will be dedicated to the league as a whole and not individual players. However, 1) It's Tim Tebow, how can you NOT talk about him and 2) It's an interesting debate.

Let me start off by saying that I am not a fan of Tim Tebow. I believe Von Miller means more to the Denver Broncos than Tim Tebow does. I believe Tebow gets extremely lucky (see: Marion Barber messing up TWICE, Norv Turner's poor play calling, and Miami's terrible defensive decisions during two point conversions), I think you actually need to be a passer to be a successful quarterback in the NFL, and I just personally dislike the hype surrounding him. I will make an argument for Tim Tebow not because I believe that he's a "closer" and he alone "just wins games" but if he does deserve to go it is because there is no one else better.

First, we have to deal with this notion that being selected to the Pro Bowl is not just about the honor of being selected, but that you actually have to play in the game. In recent years up to seven different quarterbacks have been selected to go to play in Hawaii because of injuries and back outs. This really helps out Tebow.

Here's a list of the eligible quarterbacks (sans Tebow) in the AFC (sorted by division):

- Tom Brady
- Mark Sanchez
- Matt Moore
- Chad Henne
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Joe Flacco
- Colt McCoy
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- Matt Cassel
- Kyle Orton
- Jason Campbell
- Carson Palmer
- Dan Orlovsky
- Curtis Painter
- Matt Hasselbeck
- Matt Schaub
- T.J. Yates
- Blaine Gabbert

Henne, Campbell, Schaub, and Cassel are out because they're injured. McCoy, Gabbert, Painter, and Orlovsky are out because they're just terrible. Even though Orton just beat Green Bay and I think he's a good quarterback, he's out for obvious reasons. T.J. Yates has played in too few games so he's out.

Also, Peyton Manning, the perennial AFC Pro Bowler is out.

To me, there are only two obvious names out of that list that deserve to be Pro Bowlers: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. But ask yourself, do you think Big Ben will actually play in the Pro Bowl? I believe his team will either be in the Superbowl so he won't play or his season long ass-kicking opposing defenses have given him will catch up with him. I just think realistically Roethlisberger will not play in the Pro Bowl one way or another so I think he's out.

I think the Patriots will be one and done in the playoffs and I think Tom Brady will play in Hawaii. That leaves two open slots for either Tebow or any of these quarterbacks:

- Mark Sanchez
- Matt Moore
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Joe Flacco
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- Carson Palmer
- Matt Hasselbeck

This list is a list full of pretty bad quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback and I personally don't ever want to see him earn a Pro Bowl birth. Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers are having the worst seasons of their career. Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL in interceptions and has been terrible since Week 5. Carson Palmer has helped the Raiders stay in playoff contention but he's been atrocious in about half the games he's played this season.

I know you can make the arguments for Rivers and Palmer because statistically they are having better years than Tebow as well as the rest of those quarterbacks but I can not scream from a mountaintop that they deserve to be Pro Bowlers over Tebow. I understand Philip Rivers' "worst" season might still be better than Tebow but I can not in good conscience advocate Rivers be a Pro Bowler after a terrible year like he's having and with all the turnovers he's had. Palmer may get yards but he also has 9 touchdown to 13 interceptions, the Raiders have lost their past three games (and have allowed Denver to overtake them in the division), has two games with a passer rating under 43 (and one of them was not one of his first weeks playing), and he has another three games with a passer rating under 80. For these reasons I believe Palmer and Rivers are out as well.

I think realistically the vote comes down to Tebow versus Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck, and Andy Dalton. Hasselbeck and Dalton are on winning teams who have been competitive and the Dolphins have been winning once Moore became the starter.

Matt Hasselbeck has actually been sneaky good this year. While he ranks 19th in the league in passer rating (behind Tebow), he ranks 7th in QBR and 13th in both DYAR and DVOA (all ahead of Tebow). QBR actually takes into account 4th quarter comebacks and rushing totals and yet still Hasselbeck destroys Tebow in QBR.

Andy Dalton is actually in a very similar situation to Tebow. He's a youngster who is extremely benefited by his great defense. Dalton actually has it tougher though because he's forced to play the Steelers and Ravens twice a year (and by the way, Dalton has looked good in those match ups). However, Dalton has a terrible QBR (ranked 23rd in the league) and a bad passer rating (ranked 18th in the league) but he is ranked 11th in DVOA and DYAR. Dalton also has a pretty bad TD/INT ratio (18/13). I personally would take Dalton over Tebow but I think it's actually a close call.

Matt Moore ranks 11th in QBR, 12th in passer rating, and has won 5 out of his past 7 games (although he did lose to Tebow in Miami. Just saying). But he's also Matt Moore and he plays in Miami and he probably will not get any respect from either fan voters or from his fellow players. He's also 22nd in DYAR and 25th in DVOA.

In terms of "which quarterback would have rather have had on your team in 2011" I think you can make the case for Tebow over Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck, and Andy Dalton. I think you can make a legitimate case for Tebow over any of the quarterbacks we mentioned after we made our initial cut.

Does Tim Tebow deserve to be a Pro Bowler? I don't know. He's a terrible passer but he does help the Broncos win games. If we criticize Tony Romo for not being clutch shouldn't we give Tebow SOME respect for not playing terrible once the 4th quarter starts? Should we not give Tebow any credit because opposing teams are too stupid to play a real defense as opposed to the prevent defense in the 4th quarter? I don't have a good answer. But I will say this: Tim Tebow WILL be a Pro Bowler this year. Either the fans will vote him in, his peers will vote him in, or so many other people will back out that inevitably the job will go to him.