The AL East

Now that I've run through the AL East teams, it's time to reveal who will end up where in the standings. Before the A-Rod injury, I postulated that the AL East standings would look like this:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Boston Red Sox
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

With Alex Rodriguez out of the mix, all short of an act of god has solidified my belief. Some, like Baseball Tonight's Steve Phillips,are pointing to a useless stat that indicates that in each of the past six seasons, the Yankees have had a losing record through at least the first month of baseball and all but once (2008) ended up in the playoffs. This isn't a skill, however, but random coincidence. The more you lose, the deeper you dig yourself into a hole. Just because you were able to dig yourself out before, does not mean you will again (forever) in the future. It reminds me of the logic of Israel's Likud political party according to Thomas Freidman, in which he says Israeli's conservative leaders in the 1980's become detached from reality under the illusion that because Israel was able to defeat its enemies through some combination of strategy and miracle in 1967 that they would be able to surely do it again.

Anywho, I digress. The logic behind these rankings is simple. Toronto has the biggest issues to overcome this season. Shaun Marcum is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Dustin McGowan dealing with shoulder problems. Overpaid OF Vernon Wells has a seemingly endless list of nagging health concerns that currently includes a hamstring injury. AJ Burnett, who is often injured, but nonetheless talented, is gone. Fantasyland joke Rod Barajas was the team leader in home runs for half of 2008. Alex Rios regressed from a 25+ HR player to his 162-game average production of 15 HR. Furthermore, the Blue Jays slugged under .400 as a team (no player except Vernon Wells (20 HR) had more than 15 HR in 2008). So while Halladay should be a continuously dominant force in 2009, there is not much to be excited about for the Jays this year outside of Halladay, BJ Ryan and OF prospect Travis Snyder.

Baltimore, as I've already detailed, has some nice young players, but almost all of them are very raw and have not yet "developed" into major league players.

The Yankees underperformed last year due to injuries, but the returning players are only a year older this year, while the new ones, in my opinion, merely replaced the production of the players who parted ways with the Bronx Bombers during the offseason. Coupled with the A-Rod injury, the Yankees will have a hard time staying in the Wild Card race.

The Red Sox had an undeniably great team last year and added some nice pieces to the offseason that will help them down the stretch (ie, Smoltz), but the Rays, who were better than the Red Sox last year, are better primed to repeat with equally good off-season acquitions to match a young core of players that are either entering their prime or in the middle of the sweet years. The battle for the top will be tough, but I give the edge to the Rays who can expect a bounceback from players like Crawford and Upton, while the Red Sox will need to deal with regressions from Jon Lester and Youkilis.