I don't know the exact stat but the Indians were actually one of if not the best baseball team in the second half of the 2008 season. Too bad for the Indians season are 162 and 81 games long. This team has definitely had a great off-season adding underrating 2B and jack of all trades Mark DeRosa and a closer that doesn't blow games in Kerry Wood. Now for the part two years Wood has been good in the bullpen but he's oft injured and old so we'll see how he holds up. I think he'll do just fine but of course have some weeks where he's injured. Overall, he (and you and me probably) are still better than Joe Blow. The Indians are actually a perfect example of how bullpens can change from year to year. In 2007 they had one of the best. Last year, they fell apart. I've seen this bullpen pitch and they do have proven guys so I find it hard that this bullpen can't recover. The Indians also have one of the best and young pitchers in the game right now in Cliff Lee. The only problem is that I don't trust the other four guys behind Lee. According to ESPN.com it is Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, Carl Pavano (really!?), and Anthony Reyes. Don't even worry about the last three, but Fausto has shown that he could be good. But last year he just walked WAY too many batters, and too high of a WHIP and had such a low ERA that he was bound to blow up sometime. And he probably would have if he hadn't gotten injured. If he can stay healthy and be 2007 dominant, then maybe the Indians can win this division. But then again, if ESPN read this post and I became their new anchor my life would be pretty awesome. IF. The pitching is too suspect for me to declare any post season hopes for Indians but an offense with Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Mark DeRosa, and Shin Soo-Choo (look him up, he ended the year very well. I know I had him on my fantasy team) is bound to help you win games. And fuck Travis Hafner, BTW. I read an ESPN article saying Hafner will help this offense. Yeah and maybe Bonds didn't do steroids. Garko is fine and I guess for the bottom of an order who could do worse than what the Indians have. An offense and Cliff Lee helped this team win 81 games last year. If the bullpen improves then this team can win more, but as good of an off season that the Indians had, I don't think they did enough to win the division again. This team seems opposite of the Twins, good offense and mediocre pitching (actually, I think this rotation sucks but…) and I'll take pitching over hitting any day of the week.
Projection position in division: 2nd
Players to draft:
-Cliff Lee: Don't expect 2008 numbers at all but still a great pitcher
-Grady Sizemore: I'm not going to waste my breath, if you have a late first round pick, take him
-Victor Martinez: A top tier catcher that will get RBI, R, and HR
-Mark DeRosa: One of the most valuable back ups because he can essentially play all positions and is always undervalues every single year. He'll put up good numbers
-Kerry Wood: He's worth taking as you're second closer only because of the injury risk. Don't take him as your #1 closer
Players to avoid:
-Fausto Carmona: He's going to suck next year and will blow up in your face if you draft him
-Travis Hafner: His projected stat line from BP: .248 avg/ 13 HR/ 52 RBI/ 1 SB/ 48 R. Do you really want this player? He's only projected to get 10 more R than HR!
I happen to like Fausto Carmona. He doesn't give up HRs and has a VERY strong 3:1 GB/FB (second only to Brandon Webb, better than Derek Lowe) ratio over the past two seasons (2.8:1 career).
ReplyDeleteThe problem is the Indian's infield defense, circa 2008. Ryan Garko, Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake all had negative UZR ratings (and thus below average defense; they collectively cost the Indians roughly two whole wins). If Fausto played on a major league average defense, his numbers would be much better (DIPS cannot be applied to rate his because a lot of his value is based on the hits he gives up, which is largely (if not entirely) ignored in DIPS). Carmona is the kind of guy whose FIP/DIPS, regardless of their inability to capture his groundball abilities, float in the slightly above 4 zone [in the AL]. That's not awful -- not ace material, but not awful. He's a quality guy who is just in the wrong environment
1) Casey Blake isn't on the team anymore
ReplyDelete2) Even if Fausto is better than I say he will be, that rotation still blows
3) Even is Fausto is as good as you say he will be, the Indians will still be 2nd in the division and miss the playoffs
Yes, yes, but the point is still the same. bad defense is what is to blame for much of Fausto's failure last year. W/ Blake out of town, Garko probably moving to the OF (to be replaced by Shoppach??) and Peralta no longer playing SS, there is hope
ReplyDeleteHmmmm, I'm looking at Carmona's PECOTA card and I guess I still need to work out these statistics and stuff and he does have a 100% GB/FB but from what I gather he's expected to have a much better year than last year but he's not expected to do well until the next couple of years. Also, his K rate is only 20% and his BB is at 22/23%. So he has a low K rate and a less than 1 K/BB ratio.
ReplyDeleteIf he performs within his 90% percentile he'll have an ERA of 3.55 but a WHIP of 1.36 (which to me seems like an odd combo), only 10 wins, and a 33.7 VORP (compared to his 65.9 in 07). However his mean is still 4.68 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 10.4 VORP.
From a fantasy perspective, his best is only really good for ERA and that's if he performs at his best and from a reality perspective, I don't just can't see him being all that productive to help the Indians win
I strongly believe a lot of that data is biased to be ignorant of defensive realities; when was it updated? how does it reflect the updated defensive posture of the 2009 indians defense?
ReplyDeleteThe K/BB is a bit disturbing, but you need to look at Carmona in a different light. He doesn't issue free passes and isn't much exposed to the long ball, so hits aren't as likely to be as damning as your avg pitcher. Thus, a lot of his value is based on his defense's ability, vs raw K rate, to turn plays and make the outs. Carmona's the guy whose game falls apart when the defense collapses (vs say CC, who can K the side). But, as BP acknowledges, defense is incredibly underrated.
OK, fine, let's go under the assumption that Carmona will force hitters to hit grounders but his defense will suck. That will still force Carmona to pitch more and won't help the Indians win games.
ReplyDeleteWhile now the causal arrow is not really on Carmona anymore, that still makes him invaluable in fantasy and still won't help put a W on the scoreboard.
This means you can feel free to draft him and won't help the Indians win the division. This just helps my case when I say the Indians will finish 2nd and that he's a player you should avoid