The New York Yankees

In my sincerest opinion, the most over hyped team for the 2009 season is the New York Yankees. Sure, they acquired two of the top pitchers in the game and one of the best all around first basemen, but you have to look at the marginal differences between this year’s team and last year’s to determine if they really made any substantial upgrades. I point to this post that I made a few months back, in which I compared the value of the pieces the Yankees brought in against the pieces they let go. Nothing really substantial changed overall -- the Yankees of course HAD to bring players like Teixeira and CC in to replace the production of ex-Yankees like Mussina and Abreu.

Accordingly, the key pieces to the Yankees potential for success in 2009 will depend upon getting productive years from guys who were not productive in 2008. Defensively -- and I say this term lightly, as the defense of the Yankees outside of A-Rod and Teixeira is laughably poor -- this means the pitching staff's health does not force the Yankees to pitch Carl Pavano-type guys for a majority of their innings. This means a fully recovered Chien-Ming Wang, the groundballing third co-ace on the Yankee’s staff. This means that Phil Hughes, who has unfairly been getting AAAA labels thrown at him with only 100 or so major league innings to his name, can stay healthy and effective take over the role of the long game reliever/#6 guy/guy who will take Joba's place in the rotation when he gets moved back to the bullpen. It also means that Joba is not overextended by the Yankees (160 IP limit? Just follow the Verducci Rule).

Offensively, the Yankees are going to need a bounce back from Robinson Cano, whose entire season had luck conspire against him. We may not see a .340 average or 20 home runs from the guy again, but a .300 clip with a league-average .340 OBP and 15 home runs to boot is very possible -- and very necessary -- from this very average defender.

As I alluded to earleir, the big problem for the Yankees in 2009 is going to be defense (minus Mark Teixeira, A-Rod and Xavier Nady, provided they play him in either corner). The rest of the team is largely comprised of unathletic, offense compensating guys like Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. While across 162 games, one can replaces poor defense with good offense, Baseball Prospectus has show than in small sample size situations against high caliber teams (aka the playoffs), defense is much more correlated to wins than offense. This means the statistical tides of fate are working against the Yankees, much like they do against the A’s, to make it past the early rounds of the playoffs -- that is, if they can even get there.
To sum this all in short, the Yankees have a great set of offensive players at their disposal, but a lot of offensive power is going to be canceled out by defensive inefficiency. Guys like Sabathia and Burnett, if healthy, are going to provide the Yankees with a lot of quality innings, but guys like Wang, who rely a lot more on routine defense to be effective, may be hurt. The Yankees may have spent almost half a billion dollars this off season, but thanks to players going their separate ways or retiring, a lot of that money was just spent to replace rather than improve and it’s going to be a steep uphill climb to compete with the Rays and Red Sox in 2009 -- no matter what ESPN thinks.


PLAYERS TO DRAFT:
o Derek Jeter - As overrated as everyone may think Derek Jeter is, he might be the most underrated player going into the 2009 fantasy season. Sure, his defensive and offensive output have been on a rapid decline since 2006, but there is much to like about Jeter's 2009 value. A lot of Jeter's poor performance could be attributed to being drilled on the hand by Daniel Cabrera late May. Prior to that incident, Jeter was hitting a respectable .314. Furthermore, in the final two months, Jeter hit .344. AVG may be an incredibly overrated asset in the larger picture of how it contributes to a team's ability to win, but it is still a skill that is largely supported by a player's foot speed and ability to hit line drives. Jeter's career .360 BABIP is no fluke. Obviously, expecting a .360 BABIP from a 35 year old SS on the back end of his career is unreasonable, but
all but one projection system over on fangraphs thinks that a .345+ BABIP is very possible. As an obsessive mock drafter, I routinely see Jeter -- when not reached for by a moronic Yankee's fan who knows shit about baseball (let alone fantasy) in the second round -- go as late as rounds 12 and 13. Now that Jeter is hitting directly in front of a healthy A-Rod and newly minted Yankee Mark Teixeira, you should expect some serious rebound. 120 Rs, .300+ AVG and double digit HR/SBs (12/12 over/under?) totals are all realistic. Shortstop is a notoriously useless and overrated position outside the top tier (HanRam, Reyes) and Jeter's offensive potential, combined with his undervalued draft position, make him one of the most underrated players going into 2009. Simply put, if there's any gas left in the tank, 2009 will be one of the best opportunities for Jeter to capitalize upon it.
o Chien-Ming Wang - People just plan forget about Wang. I've seen him drafted as late as round 17 in mocks on ESPN and MockDraftCentral. If healthy, there is no reason he can't again get you 19 Ws, a sub 4 ERA and a decent WHIP. Just make sure you balance out his K-lessness somehow.
o Robinson Cano - He won't hit 25 HRs or .342, but his terrible 2008 campaign will make him an undervalued .300 hitting asset w/ 15+ HR power and a legit chance at racking up 85+ RBIs/Rs. Think of him as a heavily discounted Pedroia knock-off.
o Xavier Nady - The Mark DeRosa of the outfield (above average utility man turned quality starter). 25 HRs, a quality AVG and many RBIs very possible batting behind guys like A-Rod and Teixeira. Very underrated.
o A-Rod, Teixeira, Damon - No explanation necessary, expect more RBIs/Runs.

OVERRATED
o CC Sabatihia - Between tossing 513+ IP over the past two seasons, pitching five consecutive starts on three days rest LATE in the season, throwing 7 complete games in the final two months of the season and having been the second most abused pitcher -- his 111,844 Pitcher Abuse Point rating was 30% higher than the next most abused player -- in all of baseball last year, I'll let someone else waste their second and third round picks on CC. I don't care if he does have high W, high K, low ERA upside; it's just not worth the risk of seeing a top draft waste away for extended periods on the DL. Remember how ineffective CC was in the beginning of 2008, after having been only been the 26th most abused pitcher in 2007? Quick draft strategy: minimize the risk with your early draft picks and maximize it with your later ones.
o AJ Burnett - He's only healthy in contract years. Nuff said.
o Joba Chamberlain - The kid has great stuff, but his durability and longevity are a clear question. The Yankees view Joba as their future ace, so you shouldn't expect him to eclipse 160 IP during the regular season. Is two-thirds or three-fourths season really worth a top 10 pick?
o Mariano Rivera - Don't get me wrong; Mo Rivers has amazing stuff, but why overpay for closers (especially high brand name ones like Mo) when you can get a Bobby Jenks much later? How many more SV ops do you think Mo will get over, say, Matt Lindstrom? If anything, you should draft the closers from shitty teams because all of their wins will be save opportunities.

KEEP AN EYE ON...
o Phil Hughes - With only 106 IP to his major league name, Phil Hughes was a big loser in the Andy Pettite deal. Hughes has the stuff that dreams are made of -- his high K and low BB rates gave him a minor league FIP in the mid-2's. Injuries aside, Hughes just needs time to hone his stuff and adjust to the major league level. When that happens...well, you might just wish you picked him off waivers.