The 2008 Yankees

The Bright One and I were discussing the "sickness" of the 2008 Yankees and seemed to come to the conclusion that -- in the wake of the Mark Teixeira signing -- they aren't really that much better than the 2006/2007 Yankees. Think about it. Star player like A-Rod (who is awesome) and Derek Jeter (who is overrated and declining in ability fast) are each one year older and in the back years of their prime.

Out is Jason Giambi -- who averaged 35 HRs and 100+ walks a season -- and in is Mark Teixeira -- who averages 36 HRs and 79 walks a season. Not a huge "upgrade" outside of years left until retirement (Giambi yielder higher production per AB for the Yankees than Teixeira has in his career). The comparable power comes with a parity of Batting Average for Pitch Selection (the latter of which corrolates higher to consistent Runs Created). So despite what you think, Tex isn't exactly the biggest upgrade in the world for the Yanks.

Out is Bobby Abreu -- who averages 22+ HRs and 104 walks per season -- and in is Nick Swisher -- who averages 28 HRs and 91 walks per season. Both have great plate discipline, but Abreu is clearly better. Also, despite the fact that Abreu is probably nearing the last several years of his career, I can't say Swisher's poor defense in the outfield and streaky hitting are properly compensated by the fact that he's entering his prime years. Also, while Swisher may have more raw HR power, Abreu has shown a much better ability to scoop up XBH's (Abreu's career SLG is 48 pts higher than Swisher's). Abreu's replacement may not be a downgrade, but he's not an upgrade either.

In is CC Sabathia, who logged 253+ innings last year. Even though he's got the same "work horse" label as such players as Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Harang, his heavy arm abuse by the Brewers is nothing short of unsettling. As the Pitcher Abuse Point (PAP) system indicates, it's what pitchers do when tired and fatigued that causes long term injury. At the very least, those four consecutive three-days rest, 99-105-108-122 pitch starts in September can't be good for Sabathia's health. Recall that after logging in a career his 241+ innings in 2007, Sabathia started off the year in horrible, fatigued form (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up, etc.). Note further than fellow workhorse Aaron Harang had a phenominal season going into late May, when Dusty Baker -- in classic Dusty Baker fashion -- decided to pitch him for four innings following a 103 pitch outing just two days prior. Baker then made Harang pitch 5.2 innings three days later. While Harang's arm took a little over a month and a half to fall off (extended DL stint), his peripherals plummeted immediately (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up). Harang ultimately ended the season with his highest ERA and lowest numbers of Ks since 2004 (his first full season in the majors). To the Yanks, I just say "buyer beware."

Out is Mike Mussina, who had a fantastic season to retire on. His career 3.68 ERA and <1.2 WHIP will surely be missed.

In is AJ Burnett who can only stay healthy in contract years. Nuff said.

Out is Pettite, whose SP3/SP4 career with the Yankees has been well above average and nothing short of reliable.

In are prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy who "they" say have great stuff, but failed to help the Yankees win a single game in 2008 between the two of them. Their production potential may be high, but the inexperience, lack of command and before-their-prime status make Huges and Kennedy questionable pieces in the "Yankees dream rotation."



While i'm not saying the Yankees won't win their division this year, I am saying they are not that much better of a team than they have been in the past few years. Since The Rays are going to probably be better this year (considering the increased major league experience among the youthful squad), the Yanks are going to have to do more than sign a bunch of big names with big questions behind them to become AL Champ shoe-ins. They'll probably make the playoffs, though.