My 2009 NFL Playoff Predictions

The art of prediction is a fickle business. Honestly, how many “sports experts” actually get things right? How many people last year predicted the Giants to be in the Superbowl nevertheless win it all? So this year I am basing my picks on some simple assumptions and clichés:
1) Offenses win games but defenses win championships
2) In order to have a great defense you have to have a great ability to sack the quarterback
3) Having a lot of team sack totals is indicative of how good your “playoff” team is

Last year, the two teams that had the highest sack totals were 1st- New York Giants and 2nd- New England Patriots. Guess which teams were in the playoffs and won? Crazy coincidence huh? In 2005 the Seattle Seahawks were 1st in sacks and Pittsburgh Steelers were 3rd. Crazy again. Of course this doesn’t happen every year. In 2006, the Chicago Bears were t-8th and the Colts were 30th. So I’m not making any bold claims about regular season sack totals and how well a team does in the playoffs. But I am saying this makes logical sense when trying to determine what teams will do once they enter the playoffs. So I went to NFL.com (because ESPN.com is dumb and doesn’t have team sack totals, just individual) and looked to see how teams did in the regular season to sack the quarterback. I used that information to base my prediction on individual games and thus determined my bracket from that.

Do I expect to be right? No. Am I following statistics blindly instead of my head and heart? Yep. Is it fun to see how correct I am? You betcha!

Wild Card Round:
5 Atlanta Falcons def. 4 Arizona Cardinals
6 Philadelphia Eagles def. 3 Minnesota Vikings

5 Indianapolis Colts def. 4 San Diego Chargers
3 Miami Dolphins def. 6 Baltimore Ravens

Second Round:
6 Philadelphia Eagles def. 1 New York Giants
2 Carolina Panthers def. 5 Atlanta Falcons

1 Tennessee Titans def. 5 Indianapolis Colts
2 Pittsburgh Steelers def. 3 Miami Dolphins

Divisional Round:
6 Philadelphia Eagles def. 2 Carolina Panthers
2 Pittsburgh Steelers def. 1 Tennessee Titans

Superbowl:
2 Pittsburgh Steelers def. 6 Philadelphia Eagles