Here are my Fantasy football rankings for Week 2. Please keep in mind that I did account for injuries, but updated news could change a player’s status if they don't play at all or if they were doubtful and somehow play like if Hakeem Nicks or Steven Jackson get healthy in time.
Quarterback
1. Michael Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tony Romo
4. Tom Brady
5. Phillip Rivers
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Matt Schaub
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Drew Brees
10. Joe Flacco
11. Josh Freeman
12. Rex Grossman
13. Eli Manning
14. Jay Cutler
15. Chad Henne
16. Kevin Kolb
17. Colt McCoy
18. Sam Bradford
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Matt Ryan
21. Kyle Orton
22. Mark Sanchez
23. Cam Newton
24. Matt Cassel
Running backs
1. Ray Rice
2. Rashard Mendenhall
3. Adrian Peterson
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Darren McFadden
6. Jamaal Charles
7. Matt Forte
8. Peyton Hillis
9. Michael Turner
10. Cedric Benson
11. Felix Jones
12. Tim Hightower
13. Shonn Greene
14. Arian Foster
15. Fred Jackson
16. LeGarrette Blount
17. Jahvid Best
18. Ahmad Bradshaw
19. James Starks
20. Frank Gore
21. Mike Tolbert
22. Maurice Jones-Drew
23. Reggie Bush
24. Cadillac Williams
25. Chris Johnson
26. Beanie Wells
27. Mark Ingram
28. DeAngelo Williams
29. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
30. Ryan Mathews
31. Knowshon Moreno
32. Joseph Addai
33. Willis McGahee
34. Ben Tate
35. Brandon Jacobs
Wide Receivers
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Andre Johnson
3. Miles Austin
4. Mike Wallace
5. DeSean Jackson
6. Greg Jennings
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Mike Williams
9. Roddy White
10. Brandon Marshall
11. Larry Fitzgerald
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Reggie Wayne
14. Mario Manningham
15. Steve Johnson
16. Kenny Britt
17. Mike Sims-Walker
18. Jeremy Maclin
19. Julio Jones
20. Johnny Knox
21. Lee Evans
22. Nate Burleson
23. Deion Branch
24. Robert Meachem
25. Percy Harvin
26. Steve Smith
27. Brandon Lloyd
28. Jacoby Ford
29. Hakeem Nicks
30. Davone Bess
Tight Ends
1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Aaron Hernandez
4. Jimmy Graham
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Vernon Davis
7. Owen Daniels
8. Greg Olsen
9. Dallas Clark
10. Brandon Pettigrew
11. Rob Gronkowski
12. Tony Gonzalez
13. Jermaine Gresham
14. Ed Dickson
15. Dustin Keller
16. Jared Cook
17. Marcedes Lewis
18. Evan Moore
19. Fred Davis
20. Benjamin Watson
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Outlook. Show all posts
Cubsfan4evr: Fantasy Players to Avoid
In my last article I discussed players that I am targeting this season. Here is a list of players that I would avoid this season because I think their going to regress from last season, on the decline, or have a good chance of getting injured:
·Michael Turner
·Rashard Mendenhall
·Darren McFadden
·Michael Vick
·Frank Gore
·Peyton Manning
·Reggie Wayne
·Steven Jackson
·Peyton Hillis
·Greg Jennings
·Ryan Mathews
·Joseh Addai
·Austin Collie
·Tony Gonzalez
Cubsfan4evr Fantasy Advice: Players to Target
Now that we have had the Game Of Inches Fantasy football draft I can post all of my fantasy football secrets for this season. Here is a list of the player I am targeting for this season. Like my colleague Sexy Rexy did, some of these players are top tier players who you expect a great season out of and other guys you can get later in the draft for better value. This isn’t necessary about value though, but about the safest picks.
Quarterback
Top Tier
Phillip Rivers-An elite quarterback who is in the prime of his career at only 29 years old. After Aaron Rodgers Michael Vick has only performed at this high level for one year and is a high injury risk with his game style. With Petyon’s neck injury and Brady (35) getting older look for Rivers to have a chance to be an top three quarterback and the safest consistent scorer every week.
Tony Romo- He has been on the verge of emerging from tier two to tier one for the last two years. With Roy Williams out of town and Dez Branzt in his second season with the explosive Miles Austin and Jason Witten he has many options that he can get the ball to.
Middle Tier
Matt Ryan- If you like waiting on a quarterback and pass on Rodgers, Rivers, or Romo, Ryan would be the way to go. The other two would be the safer picks, but if you get decide to wait at QB Ryan has the tools along with an second option now in Julio Jones to go along with Roddy White and a solid running game in Michael Turner, even though I am not a big fan.
Josh Freeman- A trendy sleeper who has tremendous skills. In addition to being able to throw the ball he can also run pretty well, which only him and Rodgers can do on this list. I like Tampa Bay’s young core in Freeman, Blount, and Mike Williams, but Freeman could use a second average receiver to take off the pressure.
Joe Flaco- Flaco and Kolb were my sleepers last year and I learned my lesson on Kolb by getting burned and not picking up his backup in Michael Vick. Even though Sexy Rexy told me to pick up Michael Vick. Flaco is getting more experience and has another year with Anquan Boldin who will have a better season now that he is the go to guy. Bring in lee Evans will also help by the deep threat Baltimore did not have last year to stretch the field. Flaco should only be drafted as a backup in standard leagues and a good option for two QB leagues.
Josh Freeman- A trendy sleeper who has tremendous skills. In addition to being able to throw the ball he can also run pretty well, which only him and Rodgers can do on this list. I like Tampa Bay’s young core in Freeman, Blount, and Mike Williams, but Freeman could use a second average receiver to take off the pressure.
Joe Flaco- Flaco and Kolb were my sleepers last year and I learned my lesson on Kolb by getting burned and not picking up his backup in Michael Vick. Even though Sexy Rexy told me to pick up Michael Vick. Flaco is getting more experience and has another year with Anquan Boldin who will have a better season now that he is the go to guy. Bring in lee Evans will also help by the deep threat Baltimore did not have last year to stretch the field. Flaco should only be drafted as a backup in standard leagues and a good option for two QB leagues.
Running back
Top Tier
Jamal Charles-
Charles should be a top five running back unless he gets injured. He has too much talent and his carries will go up this season, even with Thomas Jones still there. He will find the end zone more so don’t worry and he could be the #1 RB in the game.Ray Rice- Part of the reason I like Joe Flaco this season is because I think Ray Rice is going to have a great season. Last year Rice had a disappointing season for him. Because Rice struggled they had to thro more than they liked and not be as balanced. If they get back to a more balance attack Rice can have a monster season back like two seasons ago.
Middle Tier
Lesean Mccoy-
Meet Brian Westbrook 2.0 so what else do I have to say. With Michael Vick or Vince Young at QB they will have a balanced offense to keep the defenses guessing. In PPR leagues he is a top running back and one of the safest backs kin the league.Shonn Green-The Jets love to run the ball and ran the ball the most in the NFL last year. With LT getting older and breaking down at the end of the season, look for the young, fresh Green to get the ball more. He is not a good PPR player, and doesn’t find the end zone much with is a cause for concern with LT still there, but it should go up and he is good value for where he is going.
LeGarrette Blount-I love Blount and the value you can get for him. Do not draft him in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues he will be a stud. He is going in the third round but I think he can be a 8-10 running back.
Felix Jones- The Dallas offense is electric with Romo, Austin, Bryant, Witten, and Felix Jones is at the center of it. With the passing game opening things up for the running game look for Jones to run like crazy with Marion Barber out of the picture.
Sleepers
Daniel Thomas- I know Thomas is in the dog out and backing up Reggie Bush, but Bush has never stayed healthy. Bush is not a every down back and never will be. Thomas can emerge as a number one back, and there is tremendous value here. My favorite sleeper at running back!
Mark Ingram- The Saints are going to try and run more and Ingram should be at the center of it. He is explosive and should see the end zone a lot.
Willis Macghee- In deep leagues this is a great handcuff. John Fox has a hostory of being a run first head coach and like I don’t believe in Reggie Bush being an every down back, I don’t believe in Knowshon Moreno. Macghee has been solid the last few years in Baltimore and will get a lot of goal line carries at best, but have the opportunity for even more when Moreno gets injured or is ineffective.
Jerome Harrison-I was a big fan of Jahvid Best last season because I loved the value for where he was being drafted for a starting running back with his potential. Now after seeing him play and a year of looking at his stats, I am disappointed and think he is just an big injury risk like he was in college. I was going to be very big on Mikel Leshoure this year like I was on Best last year until his season ending injury. Now Harrison is the backup and I think he will take over the job from best and be the effective back. Harrison was never really given a chance in Clevleand.
Montario Hardstey- I think Peyton Hillis is one of the biggest injury risk around with Michael Vick. Cleveland drafted Hardstey high to be their starter so when Hillis gets injured or is ineffective (he is built like a fullback) than I think Hardstey will run away with the job.
Wide Receivers
Top Tier
Miles Austin- I think Austin is going to rebound from last year now with Romo back and in his third year as a starting receiver show what he is made of.
Vincent Jackson- He will reestablish himself as one of the best receivers in the game if people seem to forget and doubt him after he sat out most of last year. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the game throwing to him and still in the prime of his career with a lot to prove.
Middle Tier
Brandon Marshall-
Very disappointing season, but now that he came out he has an personality order hopefully he will get help for those issues. Chad Henne still has to get him the ball, but Marshall is such an talent it can happen, especially for where he is going in drafts. Great value for where you can draft him.Anquan Boldin – Another great value for a wide receiver who has the potential to be a top 10 receiver. Now in year two he has a relationship with Flaco, and he is the primary receiver in Baltimore.
Sleepers
Julio Jones-
He looks like the real deal. Jones and White can be a scary combination and feed off each other.Mike-sims Walker- Bradford finally has a real wide receiver and for that reason alone I like him.
Lee Evans- A fresh start and he will compliment Boldin well as he can stretch the field as a deep threat. Now with a contending team hopefully the drive will be there again.
Braylon Edwards- He has always had the talent, but never been consistent. This year he won’t have a good quarterback, but even last year he caught 904 yards with mark Sanchez. This year he could be the number one receiver and there is great value so worth the risk, because he can’t be worse than last year.
Tight Ends
Middle Tier
Jimmy Grahm- New Orleans doesn’t have a real number one receiver and Grahm is a good tight end who can be a good red zone target. Look for him to have a good number of touch downs, even if the yards aren’t there.
Sleepers
Jared Cook- A team that doesn’t have many receiving options. I like Britt if he can put it together, but we don’t know if he will be playing and he has so many issues that he is too risky. Cook is the only player on the Titans that has stepped it up and he could lead the team in receptions.
Jermaine Gresham-Cincinnati’s quarterback hasn’t looked the best, but neither have many of their wide receivers. He is more for deep league or if you want to draft a second TE, or for bye weeks.
These are players that I like this season and that I am targeting in my leagues.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Players I Love
Here are some players for this upcoming fantasy football season that I am a big fan of that I wish to own. These players are not all about value or anything like that, but players I think will have a good fantasy season. I also don't think these guys will necessarily be worse or better than others, I just like these guys. I just want to say at the end of the year "See, I told you I liked this guy"
QUARTERBACKS
Elite Guys
- Philip Rivers (SD)
In my initial rankings I had Philip Rivers as my #3 quarterback. I have a man crush in him. Last year Rivers led the NFL in passing yards- and now he'll have a full season of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd
Sleepers
- Colt McCoy (CLE)
I've always liked what he could do and has did last year from an efficiency stand point and now I'm drinking the preseason Kool-Aid; I believe what he's doing this preseason is legit.
- Sam Bradford (STL)
He's like Colt McCoy but infinitely better, has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, and NOT the worst receiving corps like McCoy has
- Matthew Stafford (DET)
Even though he's only played in like three games I've liked what I've seen from him. He could be a top 10 QB if he's healthy. He just won't be healthy. Sad trombone right there.
RUNNING BACKS
Starters
- LeSean McCoy (PHI)
For some reason I like him more than Ray Rice. I would never put that on The Board but I love him and I think he'll be a top 5 running back.
- Michael Turner (ATL)
In a year where I don't trust Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew and now that Arian Foster is having hamstring problems, I love the elite consistency of Turner
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- LaGarette Blount (TB)
I just love the core of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and Blount and I think Tampa Bay wins the division this year. You heard me.
- Mike Tolbert (SD)
I don't trust Ryan Matthews to stay healthy or be good
- Ryan Grant (GB)
This guy had been like a top 10 (or close to it) running back for his entire career. I know all the reports like, the newspapers in Wisconsin, say he was gong to be cut and that he sucks but I don't buy it. I'll say it right now, I think Grant will be a top 12 running back (assuming health), will be the starter for the Packers all season long, and will return back to his "glory days"
- Reggie Bush (MIA)
I've hated him his entire career and now he's my flex on my main team. I think he's this year's Darren McFadden. He was one of the greatest running backs ever in college, an elite prospect, he now has a fresh start where he's the starter, and reports are now he's finally running in between the tackles.
Starting On The Bench, Ending In Your Fantasy Line Up Because He's The Starter
Essentially this year's LaGarrette Blount
- Jerome Harrison (DET)
Jahvid Best was always injured in college (which caused his draft stock to drop) and was injured all of last year. Jerome Harrison has had good success when he was the starter and I feel confident as him as the starter when (not if) Best gets hurt. I like Harrison for the same reason I was big on Mikel LeShourse (except Harrison didn't go to U of I)
- Isaac Redman (PIT)
I believe the in the curse of 370 and including the playoffs my boy Rashard Mendehall had 385 carries.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Elite Guys
- Mike Wallace (PIT)
LOVE HIM! (Boy, I wish you could read this in the same sing-songy tone as I'm saying this into my computer.) I think he'll be a top five wide out again and he's being drafted outside of it
- Vincent Jackson (SD)
He's probably being drafted appropriately but he's got my boy Philip Rivers throwing to him. Plus, he's not suspended.
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- Kenny Britt (TEN)
I love his talent but he's got injury issues and will-probably-get-arrested-on-the-field issues
- Mario Manningham (NYG)
This guy was the 17th best wide receiver last year and he only started 8 games. He's now the full time starter. Bold Prediction: Manningham will end up with more fantasy numbers at the end of the year than Hakeem Nicks.
- Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
I dunno, he could. He was THE BEST guy last year. Plus, he's only the bajillonith University of Illinois grad I've mentioned on this list.
They'll Rebound From Last Year
- Brandon Marshall (MIA)
Between 2007 and 2009 Marshall averaged 102.33 receptions, 1236.67 receiving yards, and 7.67 touchdowns. I refuse to believe a guy that good could have a fantasy season THAT bad. Even with Chad Henne throwing to him. Plus I think getting help for his Borderline Personality Disorder can only help him.
- Anquan Boldin (BAL)
I think both him and Marshall suffered from the fact that they were new to their system but now with another year under his belt (and for Boldin no Derrick Mason) he'll be better.
Sleepers
- Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)
Hey, I follow other fantasy sites as well. Fantasy Gold = Talent + Opportunity and Hines Ward sucks slash is older (and drunker) than Betty White.
- Mark Clayton (STL)
I know he only started fives last year but he was good at the beginning of fantasy. Despite that fact that your little brother is currently a wide receiver for the Rams I think now that Clayton just signed a one-year deal with the Rams I think he'll be good and better than everyone in St. Louis (except for maybe Danny Amendola). Yes, better than inconsistent Mike Sims-Walker.
- Deion Branch (NE)
1. I think he'll be better than Chad Ochocinco 2. I think, for the Patriots, it's all about chemistry and I don't think last year was a fluke.
TIGHT ENDS
- Rob Gronkowski (NE)
While I personally have Aaron Hernandez on my fantasy team and many people claim that because Hernandez is the better talent he'll be the better NE tight end, but last year Gronk was a top 5 TE in fantasy and according to Football Outsiders
- Jered Cook (TEN)
Outside of Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley, and Vernon Davis, all other tight ends are just crap shoots at best. Why not go for the guy with tremendous upside?
QUARTERBACKS
Elite Guys
- Philip Rivers (SD)
In my initial rankings I had Philip Rivers as my #3 quarterback. I have a man crush in him. Last year Rivers led the NFL in passing yards- and now he'll have a full season of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd
Sleepers
- Colt McCoy (CLE)
I've always liked what he could do and has did last year from an efficiency stand point and now I'm drinking the preseason Kool-Aid; I believe what he's doing this preseason is legit.
- Sam Bradford (STL)
He's like Colt McCoy but infinitely better, has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, and NOT the worst receiving corps like McCoy has
- Matthew Stafford (DET)
Even though he's only played in like three games I've liked what I've seen from him. He could be a top 10 QB if he's healthy. He just won't be healthy. Sad trombone right there.
RUNNING BACKS
Starters
- LeSean McCoy (PHI)
For some reason I like him more than Ray Rice. I would never put that on The Board but I love him and I think he'll be a top 5 running back.
- Michael Turner (ATL)
In a year where I don't trust Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew and now that Arian Foster is having hamstring problems, I love the elite consistency of Turner
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- LaGarette Blount (TB)
I just love the core of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and Blount and I think Tampa Bay wins the division this year. You heard me.
- Mike Tolbert (SD)
I don't trust Ryan Matthews to stay healthy or be good
- Ryan Grant (GB)
This guy had been like a top 10 (or close to it) running back for his entire career. I know all the reports like, the newspapers in Wisconsin, say he was gong to be cut and that he sucks but I don't buy it. I'll say it right now, I think Grant will be a top 12 running back (assuming health), will be the starter for the Packers all season long, and will return back to his "glory days"
- Reggie Bush (MIA)
I've hated him his entire career and now he's my flex on my main team. I think he's this year's Darren McFadden. He was one of the greatest running backs ever in college, an elite prospect, he now has a fresh start where he's the starter, and reports are now he's finally running in between the tackles.
Starting On The Bench, Ending In Your Fantasy Line Up Because He's The Starter
Essentially this year's LaGarrette Blount
- Jerome Harrison (DET)
Jahvid Best was always injured in college (which caused his draft stock to drop) and was injured all of last year. Jerome Harrison has had good success when he was the starter and I feel confident as him as the starter when (not if) Best gets hurt. I like Harrison for the same reason I was big on Mikel LeShourse (except Harrison didn't go to U of I)
- Isaac Redman (PIT)
I believe the in the curse of 370 and including the playoffs my boy Rashard Mendehall had 385 carries.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Elite Guys
- Mike Wallace (PIT)
LOVE HIM! (Boy, I wish you could read this in the same sing-songy tone as I'm saying this into my computer.) I think he'll be a top five wide out again and he's being drafted outside of it
- Vincent Jackson (SD)
He's probably being drafted appropriately but he's got my boy Philip Rivers throwing to him. Plus, he's not suspended.
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- Kenny Britt (TEN)
I love his talent but he's got injury issues and will-probably-get-arrested-on-the-field issues
- Mario Manningham (NYG)
This guy was the 17th best wide receiver last year and he only started 8 games. He's now the full time starter. Bold Prediction: Manningham will end up with more fantasy numbers at the end of the year than Hakeem Nicks.
- Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
I dunno, he could. He was THE BEST guy last year. Plus, he's only the bajillonith University of Illinois grad I've mentioned on this list.
They'll Rebound From Last Year
- Brandon Marshall (MIA)
Between 2007 and 2009 Marshall averaged 102.33 receptions, 1236.67 receiving yards, and 7.67 touchdowns. I refuse to believe a guy that good could have a fantasy season THAT bad. Even with Chad Henne throwing to him. Plus I think getting help for his Borderline Personality Disorder can only help him.
- Anquan Boldin (BAL)
I think both him and Marshall suffered from the fact that they were new to their system but now with another year under his belt (and for Boldin no Derrick Mason) he'll be better.
Sleepers
- Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)
Hey, I follow other fantasy sites as well. Fantasy Gold = Talent + Opportunity and Hines Ward sucks slash is older (and drunker) than Betty White.
- Mark Clayton (STL)
I know he only started fives last year but he was good at the beginning of fantasy. Despite that fact that your little brother is currently a wide receiver for the Rams I think now that Clayton just signed a one-year deal with the Rams I think he'll be good and better than everyone in St. Louis (except for maybe Danny Amendola). Yes, better than inconsistent Mike Sims-Walker.
- Deion Branch (NE)
1. I think he'll be better than Chad Ochocinco 2. I think, for the Patriots, it's all about chemistry and I don't think last year was a fluke.
TIGHT ENDS
- Rob Gronkowski (NE)
While I personally have Aaron Hernandez on my fantasy team and many people claim that because Hernandez is the better talent he'll be the better NE tight end, but last year Gronk was a top 5 TE in fantasy and according to Football Outsiders
- Jered Cook (TEN)
Outside of Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley, and Vernon Davis, all other tight ends are just crap shoots at best. Why not go for the guy with tremendous upside?
Mike Wallace: The Underrated #1 Wide Out
I love me some Mike Wallace.
Last year I was big on Mike Wallace. I liked his talent in 2009 with the Steelers but would never draft him for fantasy because Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (sans DUI and deteriorating ability) were still there and very few #3 receivers on any football team are fantasy relevant. (The only one I can think of is Steve Breaston in 2008 who had over 1000 receiving yards along with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). But then my lucky day came when Pittsburgh shipped Holmes out to New York for his behavioral problems.
This meant that Mike Wallace would be one of Big Ben’s top two wide out targets and meant I wanted him for fantasy.
The reason I liked Wallace in 2009 was because he ranked 16th in DYAR and 4th in DVOA. Both rankings were better than: Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and Brandon Marshall to name a few. [EDITOR'S NOTE, click here to better understand DVOA and DYAR]. It was no surprise that he ranked 4th in DVOA as it is essentially a metric of value per play. In 2009 Mike Wallace had an average of 19.5 YPC which led all wide receivers. Of course a receiver who, on average, gets the most yards every time he catches the ball would have an extremely high DVOA. DYAR is a metric for total value and he was somewhat hindered in that category because he only caught 39 passes. It was this low catch total that would have made me hesitant to draft him if both Ward and Holmes were on his team. In fantasy, we do not care per se about value per play, we care about total value. And with Holmes now gone I predicted his total value would increase. And I was right.
Wallace only went for $10 in my fantasy league last year and I wanted to pair him with Andre Johnson but sadly, at that point in the draft, $10 was too expensive for my blood. Wallace ended up finishing with 60 catches for 1,257 yards and 10 TDs- good for the fifth best fantasy wide receiver.
Last year, Wallace finished number one in both DVOA and DYAR. He actually increased his YPC to 21.0 which is even more impressive considering he had about a 54% increase in the amount of catches he had from the previous year (39 up to 60). He also increased his catch rate from catching 54% of his targets to catching 61% of his targets. Normally you see high average per play and high catch rates because of the small sample size but Wallace amazingly improved his per play average when given the full time starter job.
Wallace has been amazing for the past few years yet I feel like he gets little love. On a recent Fantasy Focus Football podcast, Nate said Wallace was a low end #1 receiver and Matthew Berry said disagreed and said he was a middle tier wide out. In a recent email to a GOI fan I was trying to convince him about the awesomeness of Mike Wallace in a PPR league. I know he doesn’t catch very many passes and his value is lower in a PPR league, but he’s my #1 in the Game of Inches PPR league and I love it. I think Mike Wallace is a top tiered wide out in fantasy- no matter what the format it. (I think Wallace is a great example of The PPR Fallacy).
Currently, Wallace is 10th among wide outs in ADP according to Mock Draft Central, ranked 8th among wide outs according to Yahoo!, and ranked 7th according to ESPN.com. Sure everyone has him as a number one wide out in all leagues deeper than the one from The League, but to me he's a top five receiver and he think he needs to start getting the respect like a top five wide receiver.
I love me some Mike Wallace.
Last year I was big on Mike Wallace. I liked his talent in 2009 with the Steelers but would never draft him for fantasy because Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (sans DUI and deteriorating ability) were still there and very few #3 receivers on any football team are fantasy relevant. (The only one I can think of is Steve Breaston in 2008 who had over 1000 receiving yards along with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). But then my lucky day came when Pittsburgh shipped Holmes out to New York for his behavioral problems.
This meant that Mike Wallace would be one of Big Ben’s top two wide out targets and meant I wanted him for fantasy.
The reason I liked Wallace in 2009 was because he ranked 16th in DYAR and 4th in DVOA. Both rankings were better than: Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and Brandon Marshall to name a few. [EDITOR'S NOTE, click here to better understand DVOA and DYAR]. It was no surprise that he ranked 4th in DVOA as it is essentially a metric of value per play. In 2009 Mike Wallace had an average of 19.5 YPC which led all wide receivers. Of course a receiver who, on average, gets the most yards every time he catches the ball would have an extremely high DVOA. DYAR is a metric for total value and he was somewhat hindered in that category because he only caught 39 passes. It was this low catch total that would have made me hesitant to draft him if both Ward and Holmes were on his team. In fantasy, we do not care per se about value per play, we care about total value. And with Holmes now gone I predicted his total value would increase. And I was right.
Wallace only went for $10 in my fantasy league last year and I wanted to pair him with Andre Johnson but sadly, at that point in the draft, $10 was too expensive for my blood. Wallace ended up finishing with 60 catches for 1,257 yards and 10 TDs- good for the fifth best fantasy wide receiver.
Last year, Wallace finished number one in both DVOA and DYAR. He actually increased his YPC to 21.0 which is even more impressive considering he had about a 54% increase in the amount of catches he had from the previous year (39 up to 60). He also increased his catch rate from catching 54% of his targets to catching 61% of his targets. Normally you see high average per play and high catch rates because of the small sample size but Wallace amazingly improved his per play average when given the full time starter job.
Wallace has been amazing for the past few years yet I feel like he gets little love. On a recent Fantasy Focus Football podcast, Nate said Wallace was a low end #1 receiver and Matthew Berry said disagreed and said he was a middle tier wide out. In a recent email to a GOI fan I was trying to convince him about the awesomeness of Mike Wallace in a PPR league. I know he doesn’t catch very many passes and his value is lower in a PPR league, but he’s my #1 in the Game of Inches PPR league and I love it. I think Mike Wallace is a top tiered wide out in fantasy- no matter what the format it. (I think Wallace is a great example of The PPR Fallacy).
Currently, Wallace is 10th among wide outs in ADP according to Mock Draft Central, ranked 8th among wide outs according to Yahoo!, and ranked 7th according to ESPN.com. Sure everyone has him as a number one wide out in all leagues deeper than the one from The League, but to me he's a top five receiver and he think he needs to start getting the respect like a top five wide receiver.
I love me some Mike Wallace.
The PPR Fallacy
"Why would anyone want Michael Turner? He doesn't catch any passes."This was said to me by David "MVP" Eckstein after Game of Inches held their annual fantasy football draft- this year being a PPR league. In some fairness to DME, he has never played fantasy football in his life and this was his first real draft. However, he is not the only one to share this underlying sentiment. I have gotten questions and emails along the same lines for the same reasons why DME asked his question. The real question is, how do you evaluate players in a PPR league who does not catch any passes?
Last year Michael Turner only caught 12 passes. Clearly, if Michael Tuner is coming out of the backfield, it is to run with the ball. If he steps in front if his line, it is to block, not catch. In a PPR (points per reception) his value is severely hurt.
But here is the fallacy that people get too caught up with: just because a player does not catch many passes does not mean he is a bad player. All that means is you have to adjust the value you assign to a player who does not catch passes accordingly. While it is true that you gain an extra point when a player catches the ball, you still get points for rushing/receiving yards and points for touchdowns. I feel like this concept gets lost when people think of PPR leagues.
Going back specifically to Michael Turner. While DME didn't realize this, I was the one who drafted Michael Turner. The reason for this was two fold: 1) Arian Forster, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson were all off the board and I needed a #1 running back and 2) I paid less for Turner in this league than I would have in a non-PPR league. I paid less for Michael Turner in a PPR league and paid for his appropriate market price.
The key to ranking and getting players who do not catch passes in a PPR league is to rank them accordingly. The best way to do this is by creating your own personal ranking in a non-PPR format and then move guys who catch passes up a few spots and use pass catchers as a tie-breaker.
I got both Matt Forte and Michael Turner in this league. Matt Forte is a pass catcher and has a boost in his value in a PPR league because of this. That being said, I paid $51 for Michael Turner and only $33 for Forte. I paid $18 more for a non-pass catcher than a good pass catcher, and I believe that is fair and appropriate. While Forte will catch way more passes than Turner, I think Turner will have far superior rushing yards and touchdowns than Forte.
The point I am trying to make here is that do not overreact when if you are in a PPR league or in any league that uses non-standard/normal scoring. Absolutely look at how your league scores and absolutely factor that into your personal rankings, but don't look at the non-standard scoring in a vacuum. Take ALL the ways a player can get you points, not just the one, non-standard way. So if you are in a PPR league, you absolutely need to factor pass catchers into your rankings, but don't overlook the ways players that said player can get you points.
Cubsfan4evr: Fantasy Football Rankings
A few months ago during the lockout Sexy Rexy, TBO, and myself posted our preliminarily fantasy football rankings. Now with the lockout over, free agency done, and players in camp working out with their new teams I finally got around to updating my rankings so here we go. On Tuesday Sexy Rexy and myself did a two podcast special discussing fantasy football and I talked in detail about my rankings. I tweaked these rankings slightly since that podcast to make them even better. Listen to those two exciting podcasts for the exciting analysis while your at work or between studying for school.
Quarterbacks
Michael Vick scares me because I can see him getting hurt and missing half the season based on the way he plays the game which earns him so many fantasy points. I can also see him regressing because he only had one great season as this high level. The other top two quarterbacks are proven. Peyton Manning’s neck may make him miss some time this season along with his suspect receiver core drops him outside of my top three for the first time in years.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Michael Vick
4. Philip Rivers
5. Tom Brady
6. Peyton Manning
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matt Ryan
10. Ben Roethlisberger
11. Josh Freeman
12. Eli Manning
13. Matthew Stafford
14. Jay Cutler
15. Joe Flacco
16. Sam Bradford
17. Kevin Kolb
18. Kyle Orton
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Matt Cassel
21. David Garrard
22. Mark Sanchez
23. Donovan McNabb
24. Jason Campbell
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Tarvaris Jackson
27. Colt McCoy
28. Chad Henne
29. Cam Newton
30. Alex Smith
Running backs
With Chris Johnson holding out I had to drop him a few spots. You will also notice I am really big on Shonn Greene and LeGarrette Blount compared to most people. This goes to my overall feeling on running back this season which you have to listen to the podcast to hear or wait for future posts to read.
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Arian Foster
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Ray Rice
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Chris Johnson
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Michael Turner
9. Shonn Greene
10. Darren McFadden
11. Matt Forte
12. LeGarrette Blount
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Frank Gore
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Steven Jackson
17. Daniel Thomas
18. DeAngelo Williams
19. Knowshon Moreno
20. Ahmad Bradshaw
21. Ryan Grant
22. Ryan Mathews
23. Mark Ingram
24. Marshawn Lynch
25. Jahvid Best
26. Felix Jones
27. Cedric Benson
28. Fred Jackson
29. Joseph Addai
30. Jonathan Stewart
31. Mike Tolbert
32. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
33. Brandon Jacobs
34. Pierre Thomas
35. Tim Hightower
36. Beanie Wells
37. Montario Hardesty
38. Jerome Harrison
39. Reggie Bush
40. Willis McGahee
41. Rashad Jennings
42. C.J. Spiller
43. LaDainian Tomlinson
44. James Starks
45. Ryan Torain
46. Thomas Jones
47. Marion Barber
48. Ronnie Brown
49. Bernard Scott
50. Ben Tate
Wide Receivers
I find Wide receivers deep in overall quality and don’t feel the need to get receivers early like I did last year. I am also somewhat low on Greg Jennings compared that he was a sleeper of mine last year.
1. Andre Johnson
2. Roddy White
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Vincent Jackson
7. Miles Austin
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Mike Wallace
10. Greg Jennings
11. DeSean Jackson
12. Mike Williams (TB)
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Dez Bryant
15. Jeremy Maclin
16. Anquan Boldin
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Brandon Lloyd
19. Marques Colston
20. Stevie Johnson
21. Mario Manningham
22. Wes Welker
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Chad Ochocinco
25. Percy Harvin
26. Sidney Rice
27. Santana Moss
28. Kenny Britt
29. Austin Collie
30. Mike Sims-Walker (Stl)
31. Braylon Edwards
32. Roy Williams
33. Steve Smith (Carolina)
34. Julio Jones
35. Mike Thomas
36. A.J. Green
37. Pierre Garcon
38. Malcom Floyd
39. Johnny Knox
40. Plaxico Burress
41. Jordy Nelson
42. Michael Crabtree
43. Mike Williams (Seattle)
44. Lance Moore
45. Hines Ward
46. Jacoby Ford
47. Davone Bess
48. Danny Amendola
49. Deion Branch
50. Nate Burleson
51. Emmanuel Sanders
52. Lee Evans
53. Jacoby Jones
54. Steve Breaston
55. Jerome Simpson
Tight Ends
Tight ends is typically the weakest position every year. I am never big on drafting a Tight end early, and there are several tight end sleepers I like this year that you can get later that I think will pay high dividends that you will find out when I come out with my sleeper list or from listening to our Fantasy football podcast from the other night. You can probably tell identify some of these players from being ranked high on my rankings.
1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jason Witten
4. Owen Daniels
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Vernon Davis
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Jared Cook
10. Brandon Pettigrew
11. Tony Gonzalez
12. Chris Cooley
13. Greg Olsen
14. Jermaine Gresham
15. Zach Miller
16. Visanthe Shiancoe
17. Rob Gronkowski
18. Dustin Keller
19. Marcedes Lewis
20. Aaron Hernandez
21. Benjamin Watson
22. Tony Moeaki
23. Brent Celek
24. Heath Miller
25. Todd Heap
I hope you enjoyed my fantasy ranking list. I tried to be independent as you can tell of my running back rankings. Next to come will be players to target/avoid and the sleeper list.
Quarterbacks
Michael Vick scares me because I can see him getting hurt and missing half the season based on the way he plays the game which earns him so many fantasy points. I can also see him regressing because he only had one great season as this high level. The other top two quarterbacks are proven. Peyton Manning’s neck may make him miss some time this season along with his suspect receiver core drops him outside of my top three for the first time in years.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Michael Vick
4. Philip Rivers
5. Tom Brady
6. Peyton Manning
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matt Ryan
10. Ben Roethlisberger
11. Josh Freeman
12. Eli Manning
13. Matthew Stafford
14. Jay Cutler
15. Joe Flacco
16. Sam Bradford
17. Kevin Kolb
18. Kyle Orton
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Matt Cassel
21. David Garrard
22. Mark Sanchez
23. Donovan McNabb
24. Jason Campbell
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Tarvaris Jackson
27. Colt McCoy
28. Chad Henne
29. Cam Newton
30. Alex Smith
Running backs
With Chris Johnson holding out I had to drop him a few spots. You will also notice I am really big on Shonn Greene and LeGarrette Blount compared to most people. This goes to my overall feeling on running back this season which you have to listen to the podcast to hear or wait for future posts to read.
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Arian Foster
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Ray Rice
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Chris Johnson
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Michael Turner
9. Shonn Greene
10. Darren McFadden
11. Matt Forte
12. LeGarrette Blount
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Frank Gore
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Steven Jackson
17. Daniel Thomas
18. DeAngelo Williams
19. Knowshon Moreno
20. Ahmad Bradshaw
21. Ryan Grant
22. Ryan Mathews
23. Mark Ingram
24. Marshawn Lynch
25. Jahvid Best
26. Felix Jones
27. Cedric Benson
28. Fred Jackson
29. Joseph Addai
30. Jonathan Stewart
31. Mike Tolbert
32. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
33. Brandon Jacobs
34. Pierre Thomas
35. Tim Hightower
36. Beanie Wells
37. Montario Hardesty
38. Jerome Harrison
39. Reggie Bush
40. Willis McGahee
41. Rashad Jennings
42. C.J. Spiller
43. LaDainian Tomlinson
44. James Starks
45. Ryan Torain
46. Thomas Jones
47. Marion Barber
48. Ronnie Brown
49. Bernard Scott
50. Ben Tate
Wide Receivers
I find Wide receivers deep in overall quality and don’t feel the need to get receivers early like I did last year. I am also somewhat low on Greg Jennings compared that he was a sleeper of mine last year.
1. Andre Johnson
2. Roddy White
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Vincent Jackson
7. Miles Austin
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Mike Wallace
10. Greg Jennings
11. DeSean Jackson
12. Mike Williams (TB)
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Dez Bryant
15. Jeremy Maclin
16. Anquan Boldin
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Brandon Lloyd
19. Marques Colston
20. Stevie Johnson
21. Mario Manningham
22. Wes Welker
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Chad Ochocinco
25. Percy Harvin
26. Sidney Rice
27. Santana Moss
28. Kenny Britt
29. Austin Collie
30. Mike Sims-Walker (Stl)
31. Braylon Edwards
32. Roy Williams
33. Steve Smith (Carolina)
34. Julio Jones
35. Mike Thomas
36. A.J. Green
37. Pierre Garcon
38. Malcom Floyd
39. Johnny Knox
40. Plaxico Burress
41. Jordy Nelson
42. Michael Crabtree
43. Mike Williams (Seattle)
44. Lance Moore
45. Hines Ward
46. Jacoby Ford
47. Davone Bess
48. Danny Amendola
49. Deion Branch
50. Nate Burleson
51. Emmanuel Sanders
52. Lee Evans
53. Jacoby Jones
54. Steve Breaston
55. Jerome Simpson
Tight Ends
Tight ends is typically the weakest position every year. I am never big on drafting a Tight end early, and there are several tight end sleepers I like this year that you can get later that I think will pay high dividends that you will find out when I come out with my sleeper list or from listening to our Fantasy football podcast from the other night. You can probably tell identify some of these players from being ranked high on my rankings.
1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jason Witten
4. Owen Daniels
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Vernon Davis
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Jared Cook
10. Brandon Pettigrew
11. Tony Gonzalez
12. Chris Cooley
13. Greg Olsen
14. Jermaine Gresham
15. Zach Miller
16. Visanthe Shiancoe
17. Rob Gronkowski
18. Dustin Keller
19. Marcedes Lewis
20. Aaron Hernandez
21. Benjamin Watson
22. Tony Moeaki
23. Brent Celek
24. Heath Miller
25. Todd Heap
I hope you enjoyed my fantasy ranking list. I tried to be independent as you can tell of my running back rankings. Next to come will be players to target/avoid and the sleeper list.
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings- Wide Receivers
Sure, there might be a lock out for the NFL. Sure, we might not have a football season. Sure, I might be relegated to playing fantasy basketball and/or fantasy college football this fall (or even worse… fantasy hockey). But that's not stopping us here at GOI from fantasizing about fantasy football. Today, in my mother's basement (because we're bloggers so of course we blog from my mom's basement) Cubsfan, The 'Bright' One and myself got together for our own fantasy rankings summit. Individually we came up with our own lists for each of the four major positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and then I have compiled a composite list for the site.
This is currently a first draft. The biggest factor that will change all of our rankings is free agency. For the most part we assumed free agents will stay with their current teams. There are some players that we assumed will be leaving their current team, but for the most part we ranked players based on where they played in 2010. Preseason (if there is one) and injuries will also most certainly affect out rankings, but for right now. Here are our lists.
This is our second set in our four part series. Each day for the next consecutive days GOI will post our lists for a particular position. This post is obviously dedicated to Wide Receivers.
The 'Bright' One did not create lists coming into the summit and reluctantly created partial lists for wide outs and running backs during the discussion so his list is currently not as complete as Sexy Rexy's and Cubsfan's lists
COMPISITE RANKINGS (Player / Average Rank)
1) Andre Johnson (HOU) | 1.00 |
2) Calvin Johnson (DET) | 2.67 |
2) Roddy White (ATL) | 2.67 |
4) Greg Jennings (GB) | 4.67 |
5) Mike Wallace (PIT) | 6.00 |
6) DeSean Jackson (PHI) | 6.33 |
6) Reggie Wayne (IND) | 6.33 |
8) Vincent Jackson (SD) | 7.67 |
9) Hakeem Nicks (NYG) | 8.33 |
10) Mike Williams (TAM) | 12.33 |
11) Brandon Marshall (MIA) | 13.00 |
11) Dwayne Bowe (KC) | 13.00 |
13) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) | 14.00 |
14) Miles Austin (DAL) | 14.33 |
15) Brandon Lloyd (DEN) | 15.67 |
15) Marques Colston (NO) | 15.67 |
15) Dez Bryant (DAL) | 15.67 |
18) Jeremy Maclin (PHI) | 16.00 |
19) Kenny Britt (TEN) | 18.00 |
20) Wes Welker (NE) | 19.00 |
21) Anquan Boldin (BAL) | 19.67 |
22) Stevie Johnson (BUF) | 21.00 |
23) Steve Smith (NYG / FA) | 23.00 |
24) Sidney Rice (MIN / FA) | 23.33 |
25) Deion Branch (NE) | 25.00 |
26) Pierre Garcon (IND) | 26.00 |
27) Percy Harvin (MIN) | 27.00 |
28) Johnny Knox (CHI) | 29.00 |
29) Julio Jones (ATL) | 29.33 |
30) Michael Crabtree (SF) | 29.50 |
31) Santonio Holmes (NYJ / FA) | 30.50 |
31) Santana Moss (WAS / FA) | 30.50 |
33) Malcolm Floyd (SD / FA) | 32.00 |
24) Braylon Edwards (NYJ / FA) | 36.00 |
25) James Jones (GB / FA) | 36.50 |
25) Mark Clayton (STL) | 36.50 |
27) Mario Manningham (NYG) | 37.00 |
28) Derrick Mason (BAL) | 38.50 |
29) Jacoby Ford (OAK) | 39.33 |
30) Steve Smith (CAR) | 40.50 |
31) Mike Williams (SEA) | 41.00 |
32) Davone Bess (MIA) | 42.50 |
32) Hines Ward (PIT) | 42.50 |
34) A.J. Green (CIN) | 44.00 |
34) Chad Ochocinco (CIN / FA) | 44.00 |
36) Terrell Owens (CIN / FA) | 47.50 |
37) Mike Thomas (JAX) | 48.00 |
38) Jerome Simpson (CIN) | 51.00 |
38) Lance Moore (NO / FA) | 51.00 |
38) Mike Sims-Walker (JAX / FA) | 51.00 |
41) Austin Collie (IND) | 52.50 |
42) Robert Meachum (NO) | 53.00 |
43) Steve Breaston (ARI) | 57.00 |
Column One: Sexy Rexy
Column Two: Cubsfan
Column Three: The 'Bright' One
1) Andre Johnson (HOU) | 1) Andre Johnson (HOU) | 1) Andre Johnson (HOU) |
2) Calvin Johnson (DET) | 2) Roddy White (ATL) | 2) Calvin Johnson (DET) |
3) Roddy White (ATL) | 3) Reggie Wayne (IND) | 3) Roddy White (ATL) |
4) Mike Wallace (PIT) | 4) Calvin Johnson (DET) | 4) Greg Jennings (GB) |
5) Greg Jennings (GB) | 5) Greg Jennings (GB) | 5) Hakeem Nicks (NYG) |
6) DeSean Jackson (PHI) | 6) Mike Wallace (PIT) | 6) DeSean Jackson (PHI) |
7) Reggie Wayne (IND) | 7) DeSean Jackson (PHI) | 7) Vincent Jackson (SD) |
8) Vincent Jackson (SD) | 8) Vincent Jackson (SD) | 8) Mike Wallace (PIT) |
9) Hakeem Nicks (NYG) | 9) Mike Williams (TAM) | 9) Reggie Wayne (IND) |
10) Brandon Lloyd (DEN) | 10) Dwayne Bowe (KC) | 10) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) |
11) Kenny Britt (TEN) | 11) Hakeem Nicks (NYG) | 11) Miles Austin (DAL) |
12) Mike Williams (TAM) | 12) Dez Bryant (DAL) | 12) Dwayne Bowe (KC) |
13) Brandon Marshall (MIA) | 13) Brandon Marshall (MIA) | 13) Brandon Marshall (MIA) |
14) Miles Austin (DAL) | 14) Marques Colston (NO) | 14) Dez Bryan (DAL) |
15) Jeremy Maclin (PHI) | 15) Anquan Boldin (BAL) | 15) Marques Colston (NO) |
16) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) | 16) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) | 16) Mike Williams (TAM) |
17) Dwayne Bowe (KC) | 17) Jeremy Maclin (PHI) | 17) Brandon Lloyd (DEN) |
18) Marques Colston (NO) | 18) Miles Austin (DAL) | 18) Stevie Johnson (BUF) |
19) Wes Welker (NE) | 19) Wes Welker (NE) | 19) Wes Welker (NE) |
20) Stevie Johnson (BUF) | 20) Brandon Lloyd (DEN) | 20) Anquan Boldin (BAL) |
21) Dez Bryant (DAL) | 21) Kenny Britt (TEN) | 21) Steve Smith (NYG / FA) |
22) Deion Branch (NE) | 22) Steve Smith (NYG) | 22) Kenny Britt (TEN) |
23) Sidney Rice (MIN / FA) | 23) Santonio Holmes (NYJ / FA) | 23) Sidney Rice (MIN / FA) |
24) Anquan Boldin (BAL) | 24) Sidney Rice (MIN / FA) | 24) Julio Jones (ATL) |
25) Pierre Garcon (IND) | 25) Stevie Johnson (BUF) | 25) Jacoby Ford (OAK) |
26) Steve Smith (NYG / FA) | 26) Percy Harvin (MIN) | |
27) Johnny Knox (CHI) | 27) Pierre Garcon (MIN) | |
28) Percy Harvin (MIN) | 28) Deion Branch (NE) | |
29) Santana Moss (WAS / FA) | 29) Michael Crabtree (SF) | |
30) Michael Crabtree (SF) | 30) Julio Jones (ATL) | |
31) Malcolm Floyd (SD / FA) | 31) Johnny Knox (CHI) | |
32) James Jones (GB / FA) | 32) Santana Moss (WAS / FA) | |
33) Braylon Edwards (NYJ / FA) | 33) Malcolm Floyd (SD / FA) | |
34) Julio Jones (ATL) | 34) Mike Williams (SEA) | |
35) Mark Clayton (STL) | 35) Mario Manningham (NYG) | |
36) Chad Ochocinco (CIN / FA) | 36) Devone Bess (MIA) | |
37) Derrick Mason (BAL) | 37) Steve Smith (CAR) | |
38) Santonio Holmes (NJY / FA) | 38) Mark Clayton (STL) | |
39) Mario Manningham (NYG) | 39) Braylon Edwards (NYJ / FA) | |
40) Hines Ward (PIT) | 40) Derrick Mason (BAL) | |
41) Plaxico Burress (FA) | 41) James Jones (GB / FA) | |
42) Terrell Owens (CIN / FA) | 42) A.J. Green (CIN) | |
43) Jacoby Ford (OAK) | 43) Mike Thomas (JAX) | |
44) Steve Smith (CAR) | 44) Mike Sims-Walker (JAX / FA) | |
45) Jericho Cotchery (NYJ) | 45) Hines Ward (PIT) | |
46) A.J. Green (CIN) | 46) Austin Collie (IND) | |
47) Lance Moore (NO / FA) | 47) Jerome Simpson (CIN) | |
48) Mike Williams (SEA) | 48) Nate Burleson (DET) | |
49) Devone Bess (MIA) | 49) Jacoby Jones (HOU) | |
50) Donnie Avery (STL) | 50) Robert Meachum (NO) | |
51) Anthony Armstrong (WAS) | 51) Jacoby Ford (OAK) | |
52) Nate Washington (TEN) | 52) Chad Ochocinco (CIN / FA) | |
53) Mike Thomas (JAX) | 53) Terrell Owens (CIN / FA) | |
54) Jabar Gaffney (DEN) | 54) Jordi Nelson (GB) | |
55) Jerome Simpson (CIN) | 55) Lance Moore (NO / FA) | |
56) Robert Meachum (NO) | 56) Leonard Hankerson (MIA) | |
57) Steve Breaston (ARI) | 57) Steve Breaston (ARI) | |
58) Mike Sims-Walker (JAX / FA) | 58) Danny Amendola (STL) | |
59) Austin Collie (IND) | 59) Louis Murphy (OAK) | |
60) Anthony Gonzalez (IND) | 60) Earl Bennett (CHI) |
Next Post: Running Backs
My Distrust of Jamaal Charles
Coming up soon Game Of Inches will post their running back rankings but for now I would like to discuss my stance on Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles. (EDITOR'S NOTE: You can now view GOI's RB rankings here). I do not trust Charles for two reasons. The first is that I loaned him 100 bucks a few years back because he said he needed it the money to help his ailing grandmother and I still have not seen that money to this day. The second reason is that I do not trust his Yards Per Carry (YPC) going forward.
Jamaal Charles currently holds an incredible career 6.0 YPC. In his 2009 breakout season he had a YPC of 5.9 (spending time as both a starter and a back up) and had an incredible 6.4 YPC as a starter in 2010.
At the end of the 2009 season fantasy owners were clamoring at the chance to draft Charles. Then the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones and Charles' value deflated to being drafted out of the first round and to not being a top ten running back. But the fantasy owners who continued their faith in Charles were heavily rewarded when Jamaal Charles ended up the third best fantasy running back in 2010.
However, I am still down on Charles. He has now proven to me that he is just a stud on the field and a top 10 fantasy running back- even with Thomas Jones there. Despite the double headed threat of Charles and Thomas, Jamaal Charles still got as many carries as guys like Run DMC (Darren McFadden) and Matt Forte. Sure, as a fantasy owner I would like to see him get more than the 11-15 he averaged per game in 2010, but with Charles' high YPC and explosive talent, fantasy owners did not mind as much last year.
But now what scares me going forward is that I believe Jamaal Chalres' YPC will decrease.
I was joking around with fellow Game Of Inches author The 'Bright' One about my fear when he said "What, his YPC will drop down to 5.3?" Well... yes. Certainly if I were a Kansas City Chiefs fan I would take a 5.0+ YPC in a heartbeat and anyone who has seen Charles play (including that pitiful playoff game the Chiefs played where Charles has an amazing 9.11 YPC- but only off of 9 rushing attempts) knows just what a great physical runner Charles is. There is no doubt in my mind that Charles will have a YPC over 5.0 next year. However, this creates a huge problem for fantasy owners because Charles needs an extremely high YPC to make up for his low amount of touches.
In 2009 the great Chris Johnson *only* had a YPC of 5.6 which decreased to 4.3 in 2010 which in turn hurt Johnson's fantasy value. While CJ ended up as a top five fantasy running back, he still was a disappointment last year. (Just ask anyone who drafted Johnson #1 overall and they'll agree with me.) Defenders would respond to this argument by saying that it was easier to defend Johnson by just stacking the box considering the QB carousel that happened in Tennessee with guys like Rusty Nail (excuse me, Rusty Smith) at the helm at QB.
However, I think that same argument could be made for Matt Cassel next season. Matt Cassel had a great 2010 campaign and earned a deserving berth to the Pro Bowl. However, what Cassel had last year that I do not believe he will have in 2011 is the ability to play against inferior competition. The Kansas City Chiefs had an extremely weak schedule (in terms of passing defense) once they played the horrific secondary of the Houston Texans in Week Six and got to play the great and almighty secondaries of Denver (twice), Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Francisco- all of whom were in the bottom ten in terms of passing defense. Just ask any Dwayne Bowe owner last year- his amazing season did not start until his 108 yards / 2 TD game against Houston (I know because a person in my league benched him for that start because Bowe looked and was atrocious from weeks 1-5). My point is, with tougher passing defenses to play in 2011, Charles will not have the luxury of Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe taking defenders away from him like they did last year and I can see that affecting his YPC in 2011 like it did Chris Johnson in 2010.
"So What?" you may be asking yourselves. "All you have told me is that Charles will have tougher competition, but I don't care, Charles is a stud and that's all that matters." True, Charles is a stud, but let me show you why a lower YPC matters.
Last year, Charles ran for 1467 yards. This was good enough to be the second best rusher in the league only to Arian Foster. Now let's say his YPC does drop to 5.3. I do not believe his carries will increase because Thomas Jones is still there. Plus, Kansas City far and away led the league in rushing attempts with 556 and you rarely (if ever) see a team repeat from year to year being the leader in rushing attempts. If anything I would assume his carries would go down more than go up just because the amount of carries Kansas City has to offer will decrease next season. Charles was amazing at the end of 2009 as well as last year and he still rarely got more than 15 carries a game.
Let us now assume Charles does get the same amount of carries as he did last year- 230. You take that amount of carries and add it to *only* a 5.3 YPC and you get 1,219 rushing yards. Still extremely good, but that would now drop him to the tenth best runner last year behind Ray Rice.
You add to this *low* yard total the fact that Charles does not score touchdowns and you have a recipe for a bust if you draft him high. Despite Charles' explosiveness Charles only had five rushing touchdowns and only three of them came within the first thirteen weeks of the season (before most fantasy playoffs began). Charles only had eight touchdowns total (5 rushing, 3 receiving) which was behind top studs like AD, CJ, BJGE, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner's rushing touchdown totals.
Now touchdowns are a finicky thing. There are extremely volatile and unpredictable from year to year. It's extremely possible that Charles' gets 13 total touchdowns next year which will more than make up for his decrease in rushing yards. However, guys who tend to score a lot of touchdowns tend to do so year to year and guys who do not tend to not. While it is most certainly within the realm of possibility that Jamaal Charles gets more touchdowns next year, it seems unlikely that he would with a decrease in yards per carry and the fact that Thomas Jones is still there to vulture touchdowns away. In fact, because of Thomas Jones, Charles' TD/carry dropped from 2009 to 2010 even though he gained the full time starter job for all 16 games in 2010.
Last year, if you assume that Charles got the same number of carries, the same number of touchdowns, the same number of fumbles, and the same number of receiving yards (in the same weeks he got them in) but you drop his YPC from 6.4 to 5.3 he would have scored 205 fantasy points- which would have dropped him down from 3rd to t-8th. Again, still really good, but there's one more assumption that we didn't address that now needs to be factored into the equation: Charles' receiving totals.
Last year Charles had 45 catches for 468 yards. Those receiving totals added an extra 40 points to his fantasy total (despite the fact that overall 468 yards = 46 fantasy points, if you look back at Charles' game log you will notice, as with all fantasy players, that he did not get even receiving yard totals week to week. So say Charles got 17 receiving yards in Week One and 3 receiving yards in Week Two that actually only amounts to 1 fantasy point for the two weeks even though if you combine them it would appear as if you would get 2 fantasy points). And as mentioned earlier with what I believe will be an inferior passing attack for the Chiefs from 2010 to 2011, I expect Charles' passing numbers to decrease a bit as well.
Certainly a 5.3 YPC is an arbitrary number. That would be a 1.1 YPC drop for Charles. Ray Rice dropped 1.3 YPC from 2009 to 2010. The same with Chris Johnson. Rashard Mendenhall dropped 0.7. Matt Forte gained 0.9 YPC. Even though I just picked 5.3 out of thin air, my point remains that I think Charles YPC will drop and I think it will drop significantly to the point that his fantasy value will drop from his amazing 2010 campaign.
As mentioned earlier in the article, if Jamaal Charles did have a 5.3 YPC last year that would put him tied as the eighth best fantasy running back. This is still really good. Despite what may appear to be me bashing him in this article I merely just meant to point out that I think you should temper your expectations on him coming into the 2011 season (if there is a 2011 season). On a recent Article of the Day on FFSpin, Fantasy Sharks suggested that you draft Charles #4 overall. I have to respectfully disagree with my colleagues. In my rankings, soon to come out, I ranked Charles as my seventh best running back. This is still a dive from the #3 spot he ended at last year but also still a #1 RB in all leagues deeper than the ones the guys play in on the FX show The League.
I think Charles will still be good in 2011 and I think Charles will still be a productive fantasy running back in 2011 but what I do think is Charles will not be as productive (on a per game basis) in 2011 as he was in 2010. Now if he could only pay back the money he owes me I would greatly appreciate it.
Jamaal Charles currently holds an incredible career 6.0 YPC. In his 2009 breakout season he had a YPC of 5.9 (spending time as both a starter and a back up) and had an incredible 6.4 YPC as a starter in 2010.
At the end of the 2009 season fantasy owners were clamoring at the chance to draft Charles. Then the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones and Charles' value deflated to being drafted out of the first round and to not being a top ten running back. But the fantasy owners who continued their faith in Charles were heavily rewarded when Jamaal Charles ended up the third best fantasy running back in 2010.
However, I am still down on Charles. He has now proven to me that he is just a stud on the field and a top 10 fantasy running back- even with Thomas Jones there. Despite the double headed threat of Charles and Thomas, Jamaal Charles still got as many carries as guys like Run DMC (Darren McFadden) and Matt Forte. Sure, as a fantasy owner I would like to see him get more than the 11-15 he averaged per game in 2010, but with Charles' high YPC and explosive talent, fantasy owners did not mind as much last year.
But now what scares me going forward is that I believe Jamaal Chalres' YPC will decrease.
I was joking around with fellow Game Of Inches author The 'Bright' One about my fear when he said "What, his YPC will drop down to 5.3?" Well... yes. Certainly if I were a Kansas City Chiefs fan I would take a 5.0+ YPC in a heartbeat and anyone who has seen Charles play (including that pitiful playoff game the Chiefs played where Charles has an amazing 9.11 YPC- but only off of 9 rushing attempts) knows just what a great physical runner Charles is. There is no doubt in my mind that Charles will have a YPC over 5.0 next year. However, this creates a huge problem for fantasy owners because Charles needs an extremely high YPC to make up for his low amount of touches.
In 2009 the great Chris Johnson *only* had a YPC of 5.6 which decreased to 4.3 in 2010 which in turn hurt Johnson's fantasy value. While CJ ended up as a top five fantasy running back, he still was a disappointment last year. (Just ask anyone who drafted Johnson #1 overall and they'll agree with me.) Defenders would respond to this argument by saying that it was easier to defend Johnson by just stacking the box considering the QB carousel that happened in Tennessee with guys like Rusty Nail (excuse me, Rusty Smith) at the helm at QB.
However, I think that same argument could be made for Matt Cassel next season. Matt Cassel had a great 2010 campaign and earned a deserving berth to the Pro Bowl. However, what Cassel had last year that I do not believe he will have in 2011 is the ability to play against inferior competition. The Kansas City Chiefs had an extremely weak schedule (in terms of passing defense) once they played the horrific secondary of the Houston Texans in Week Six and got to play the great and almighty secondaries of Denver (twice), Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Francisco- all of whom were in the bottom ten in terms of passing defense. Just ask any Dwayne Bowe owner last year- his amazing season did not start until his 108 yards / 2 TD game against Houston (I know because a person in my league benched him for that start because Bowe looked and was atrocious from weeks 1-5). My point is, with tougher passing defenses to play in 2011, Charles will not have the luxury of Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe taking defenders away from him like they did last year and I can see that affecting his YPC in 2011 like it did Chris Johnson in 2010.
"So What?" you may be asking yourselves. "All you have told me is that Charles will have tougher competition, but I don't care, Charles is a stud and that's all that matters." True, Charles is a stud, but let me show you why a lower YPC matters.
Last year, Charles ran for 1467 yards. This was good enough to be the second best rusher in the league only to Arian Foster. Now let's say his YPC does drop to 5.3. I do not believe his carries will increase because Thomas Jones is still there. Plus, Kansas City far and away led the league in rushing attempts with 556 and you rarely (if ever) see a team repeat from year to year being the leader in rushing attempts. If anything I would assume his carries would go down more than go up just because the amount of carries Kansas City has to offer will decrease next season. Charles was amazing at the end of 2009 as well as last year and he still rarely got more than 15 carries a game.
Let us now assume Charles does get the same amount of carries as he did last year- 230. You take that amount of carries and add it to *only* a 5.3 YPC and you get 1,219 rushing yards. Still extremely good, but that would now drop him to the tenth best runner last year behind Ray Rice.
You add to this *low* yard total the fact that Charles does not score touchdowns and you have a recipe for a bust if you draft him high. Despite Charles' explosiveness Charles only had five rushing touchdowns and only three of them came within the first thirteen weeks of the season (before most fantasy playoffs began). Charles only had eight touchdowns total (5 rushing, 3 receiving) which was behind top studs like AD, CJ, BJGE, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner's rushing touchdown totals.
Now touchdowns are a finicky thing. There are extremely volatile and unpredictable from year to year. It's extremely possible that Charles' gets 13 total touchdowns next year which will more than make up for his decrease in rushing yards. However, guys who tend to score a lot of touchdowns tend to do so year to year and guys who do not tend to not. While it is most certainly within the realm of possibility that Jamaal Charles gets more touchdowns next year, it seems unlikely that he would with a decrease in yards per carry and the fact that Thomas Jones is still there to vulture touchdowns away. In fact, because of Thomas Jones, Charles' TD/carry dropped from 2009 to 2010 even though he gained the full time starter job for all 16 games in 2010.
Last year, if you assume that Charles got the same number of carries, the same number of touchdowns, the same number of fumbles, and the same number of receiving yards (in the same weeks he got them in) but you drop his YPC from 6.4 to 5.3 he would have scored 205 fantasy points- which would have dropped him down from 3rd to t-8th. Again, still really good, but there's one more assumption that we didn't address that now needs to be factored into the equation: Charles' receiving totals.
Last year Charles had 45 catches for 468 yards. Those receiving totals added an extra 40 points to his fantasy total (despite the fact that overall 468 yards = 46 fantasy points, if you look back at Charles' game log you will notice, as with all fantasy players, that he did not get even receiving yard totals week to week. So say Charles got 17 receiving yards in Week One and 3 receiving yards in Week Two that actually only amounts to 1 fantasy point for the two weeks even though if you combine them it would appear as if you would get 2 fantasy points). And as mentioned earlier with what I believe will be an inferior passing attack for the Chiefs from 2010 to 2011, I expect Charles' passing numbers to decrease a bit as well.
Certainly a 5.3 YPC is an arbitrary number. That would be a 1.1 YPC drop for Charles. Ray Rice dropped 1.3 YPC from 2009 to 2010. The same with Chris Johnson. Rashard Mendenhall dropped 0.7. Matt Forte gained 0.9 YPC. Even though I just picked 5.3 out of thin air, my point remains that I think Charles YPC will drop and I think it will drop significantly to the point that his fantasy value will drop from his amazing 2010 campaign.
As mentioned earlier in the article, if Jamaal Charles did have a 5.3 YPC last year that would put him tied as the eighth best fantasy running back. This is still really good. Despite what may appear to be me bashing him in this article I merely just meant to point out that I think you should temper your expectations on him coming into the 2011 season (if there is a 2011 season). On a recent Article of the Day on FFSpin, Fantasy Sharks suggested that you draft Charles #4 overall. I have to respectfully disagree with my colleagues. In my rankings, soon to come out, I ranked Charles as my seventh best running back. This is still a dive from the #3 spot he ended at last year but also still a #1 RB in all leagues deeper than the ones the guys play in on the FX show The League.
I think Charles will still be good in 2011 and I think Charles will still be a productive fantasy running back in 2011 but what I do think is Charles will not be as productive (on a per game basis) in 2011 as he was in 2010. Now if he could only pay back the money he owes me I would greatly appreciate it.
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings- Tight Ends
Sure, there might be a lock out for the NFL. Sure, we might not have a football season. Sure, I might be relegated to playing fantasy basketball and/or fantasy college football this fall (or even worse… fantasy hockey). But that's not stopping us here at GOI from fantasizing about fantasy football. Today, in my mother's basement (because we're bloggers so of course we blog from my mom's basement) Cubsfan, The 'Bright' One and myself got together for our own fantasy rankings summit. Individually we came up with our own lists for each of the four major positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and then I have compiled a composite list for the site.
This is currently a first draft. The biggest factor that will change all of our rankings is free agency. For the most part we assumed free agents will stay with their current teams. There are some players that we assumed will be leaving their current team, but for the most part we ranked players based on where they played in 2010. Preseason (if there is one) and injuries will also most certainly affect out rankings, but for right now. Here are our lists.
We will be doing a four part series. Each day for the next consecutive days GOI will post our lists for a particular position. This post is obviously dedicated to Tight Ends.
The 'Bright' One did not create lists coming into the summit and reluctantly created partial lists for quarterbacks, wide outs, and running backs during the discussion, but he did not create a tight ends list so for right now his rankings will not be included.
COMPISITE RANKINGS (Player / Average Rank)
1) Antonio Gates (SD) | 1.00 |
2) Dallas Clark (IND) | 2.50 |
2) Jermichael Finley (GB) | 2.50 |
4) Jason Witten (DAL) | 4.50 |
5) Vernon Davis (SF) | 5.00 |
6) Owen Daniels (HOU) | 8.50 |
6) Zach Miller (OAK) | 8.50 |
6) Kellen Winslow (TAM) | 8.50 |
9) Jimmy Graham (NO) | 10.00 |
10) Chris Cooley (WAS) | 12.00 |
11) Rob Gronkowski (NE) | 12.50 |
11) Tony Moeaki (KC) | 12.50 |
13) Tony Gonzalez (ATL) | 13.00 |
14) Mercedes Lewis (JAX) | 14.50 |
15) Brandon Pettigrew (DET) | 15.00 |
16) Jermaine Gresham (CIN) | 15.50 |
16) Aaron Hernandez (NE) | 15.50 |
18) Todd Heap (BAL) | 16.50 |
19) Dustin Keller (NYJ) | 21.00 |
20) Brent Celek (PHI) | 21.50 |
21) Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN) | 22.00 |
24) Greg Olson (CHI) | 22.50 |
23) Benjamin Watson (CLE) | 23.50 |
The first column is Sexy Rexy's list and the second column is Cubsfan's list
1) Antonio Gates (SD) | 1) Antonio Gates (SD) |
2) Jermichael Finley (GB) | 2) Dallas Clark (IND) |
3) Dallas Clark (IND) | 3) Jermichael Finley (GB) |
4) Vernon Davis (SF) | 4) Jason Witten (DAL) |
5) Jason Witten (DAL) | 5) Owen Daniels (HOU) |
6) Owen Daniels (HOU) | 6) Vernon Davis (SF) |
7) Rob Gronkowski (NE) | 7) Jimmy Graham (NO) |
8) Kellen Winslow (TAM) | 8) Zach Miller (OAK) |
9) Zach Miller (OAK) | 9) Kellen Winslow (TAM) |
10) Tony Gonzalez (ATL) | 10) Aaron Hernandez (NE) |
11) Tony Moeaki (KC) | 11) Jermaine Gresham (CIN) |
12) Chris Cooley (WAS) | 12) Chris Cooley (WAS) |
13) Jimmy Graham (NO) | 13) Brandon Pettigrew (DET) |
14) Mercedes Lewis (JAX) | 14) Tony Moeaki (KC) |
15) Anthony Fasano (MIA) | 15) Mercedes Lewis (JAX) |
16) Todd Heap (BAL) | 16) Tony Gonzalez (ATL) |
17) Brandon Pettigrew (DET) | 17) Todd Heap (BAL) |
18) Dustin Keller (NYJ) | 18) Rob Gronkowski (NE) |
19) Michael Hoomanawanui (STL) | 19) Brent Celek (PHI) |
20) Jermaine Gresham (CIN) | 20) Jared Cook (TEN) |
21) Aaron Hernandez (NE) | 21) Visanthe Shaincoe (MIN) |
22) Greg Olson (CHI) | 22) Benjamin Watson (CLE) |
23) Visanthe Shancoe (MIN) | 23) Greg Olson |
24) Brent Celek (PHI) | 24) Dustin Keller (NYJ) |
25) Benjamin Watson (PHI) | 25) Heath Hiller (PIT) |
Next Post: Wide Receivers
