Here are some players for this upcoming fantasy football season that I am a big fan of that I wish to own. These players are not all about value or anything like that, but players I think will have a good fantasy season. I also don't think these guys will necessarily be worse or better than others, I just like these guys. I just want to say at the end of the year "See, I told you I liked this guy"
QUARTERBACKS
Elite Guys
- Philip Rivers (SD)
In my initial rankings I had Philip Rivers as my #3 quarterback. I have a man crush in him. Last year Rivers led the NFL in passing yards- and now he'll have a full season of Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd
Sleepers
- Colt McCoy (CLE)
I've always liked what he could do and has did last year from an efficiency stand point and now I'm drinking the preseason Kool-Aid; I believe what he's doing this preseason is legit.
- Sam Bradford (STL)
He's like Colt McCoy but infinitely better, has Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, and NOT the worst receiving corps like McCoy has
- Matthew Stafford (DET)
Even though he's only played in like three games I've liked what I've seen from him. He could be a top 10 QB if he's healthy. He just won't be healthy. Sad trombone right there.
RUNNING BACKS
Starters
- LeSean McCoy (PHI)
For some reason I like him more than Ray Rice. I would never put that on The Board but I love him and I think he'll be a top 5 running back.
- Michael Turner (ATL)
In a year where I don't trust Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew and now that Arian Foster is having hamstring problems, I love the elite consistency of Turner
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- LaGarette Blount (TB)
I just love the core of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and Blount and I think Tampa Bay wins the division this year. You heard me.
- Mike Tolbert (SD)
I don't trust Ryan Matthews to stay healthy or be good
- Ryan Grant (GB)
This guy had been like a top 10 (or close to it) running back for his entire career. I know all the reports like, the newspapers in Wisconsin, say he was gong to be cut and that he sucks but I don't buy it. I'll say it right now, I think Grant will be a top 12 running back (assuming health), will be the starter for the Packers all season long, and will return back to his "glory days"
- Reggie Bush (MIA)
I've hated him his entire career and now he's my flex on my main team. I think he's this year's Darren McFadden. He was one of the greatest running backs ever in college, an elite prospect, he now has a fresh start where he's the starter, and reports are now he's finally running in between the tackles.
Starting On The Bench, Ending In Your Fantasy Line Up Because He's The Starter
Essentially this year's LaGarrette Blount
- Jerome Harrison (DET)
Jahvid Best was always injured in college (which caused his draft stock to drop) and was injured all of last year. Jerome Harrison has had good success when he was the starter and I feel confident as him as the starter when (not if) Best gets hurt. I like Harrison for the same reason I was big on Mikel LeShourse (except Harrison didn't go to U of I)
- Isaac Redman (PIT)
I believe the in the curse of 370 and including the playoffs my boy Rashard Mendehall had 385 carries.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Elite Guys
- Mike Wallace (PIT)
LOVE HIM! (Boy, I wish you could read this in the same sing-songy tone as I'm saying this into my computer.) I think he'll be a top five wide out again and he's being drafted outside of it
- Vincent Jackson (SD)
He's probably being drafted appropriately but he's got my boy Philip Rivers throwing to him. Plus, he's not suspended.
Drafted Middle Tier- Could Be Top Ten
- Kenny Britt (TEN)
I love his talent but he's got injury issues and will-probably-get-arrested-on-the-field issues
- Mario Manningham (NYG)
This guy was the 17th best wide receiver last year and he only started 8 games. He's now the full time starter. Bold Prediction: Manningham will end up with more fantasy numbers at the end of the year than Hakeem Nicks.
- Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
I dunno, he could. He was THE BEST guy last year. Plus, he's only the bajillonith University of Illinois grad I've mentioned on this list.
They'll Rebound From Last Year
- Brandon Marshall (MIA)
Between 2007 and 2009 Marshall averaged 102.33 receptions, 1236.67 receiving yards, and 7.67 touchdowns. I refuse to believe a guy that good could have a fantasy season THAT bad. Even with Chad Henne throwing to him. Plus I think getting help for his Borderline Personality Disorder can only help him.
- Anquan Boldin (BAL)
I think both him and Marshall suffered from the fact that they were new to their system but now with another year under his belt (and for Boldin no Derrick Mason) he'll be better.
Sleepers
- Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)
Hey, I follow other fantasy sites as well. Fantasy Gold = Talent + Opportunity and Hines Ward sucks slash is older (and drunker) than Betty White.
- Mark Clayton (STL)
I know he only started fives last year but he was good at the beginning of fantasy. Despite that fact that your little brother is currently a wide receiver for the Rams I think now that Clayton just signed a one-year deal with the Rams I think he'll be good and better than everyone in St. Louis (except for maybe Danny Amendola). Yes, better than inconsistent Mike Sims-Walker.
- Deion Branch (NE)
1. I think he'll be better than Chad Ochocinco 2. I think, for the Patriots, it's all about chemistry and I don't think last year was a fluke.
TIGHT ENDS
- Rob Gronkowski (NE)
While I personally have Aaron Hernandez on my fantasy team and many people claim that because Hernandez is the better talent he'll be the better NE tight end, but last year Gronk was a top 5 TE in fantasy and according to Football Outsiders
- Jered Cook (TEN)
Outside of Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley, and Vernon Davis, all other tight ends are just crap shoots at best. Why not go for the guy with tremendous upside?
Showing posts with label Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice. Show all posts
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: 2011 Pitching Rankings
UPDATE: I have updated my list and rankings from my original post
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I personally think my best skill set for fantasy baseball purposes is ranking pitchers. It's why I was first in the GOI auction league last year in ERA and WHIP and my knowledge helped me stream pitchers in my head-to-head keeper league that allowed me not only to win the counting stats, but to do so without hurting my ratio stats.
So now that all of my leagues have completed their drafts, I feel safe to announce my rankings. I understand that with baseball four days away chances are these rankings are not going to help anyone out (because the vast majority of people have completed their drafts) but I like having my opinion on the record.
Before we begin, I'd just like to say that coming up with all these pitchers is hard freaking work. We all can rank top 30, but it was a struggle to come up with 100 names.
Now, let the hating begin!
Top 100 Mixed League Pitchers
1) Tim Lincecum
2) Roy Halladay
3) Jon Lester
4) Felix Hernandez
5) Josh Johnson
6) Cliff Lee
7) Clayton Kershaw
8) Javier Vazquez
9) C.C. Sabathia
10) Francisco Liriano
11) Dan Haren
12) Yovani Gallardo
13) Zach Grienke (I'm a little pissed that Grienke got injured because I believed that Gallardo would put up better fantasy numbers than Grienke before the injury. On the plus side, I got Grienke for cheap in the GOI auction league)
14) Justin Verlander
15) Max Scherzer
16) Cole Hamels
17) Ubaldo Jiminez
18) Tommy Hanson
19) Chris Carpenter
20) Mat Latos
21) Shaun Marcum
22) Gavin Floyd
23) Jered Weaver
24) Wandy Rodriguez
25) Hiroki Kuroda
26) Roy Oswalt
27) Colby Lewis
28) Ryan Dempster
29) Daniel Hudson
30) Josh Beckett
31) Wade Davis
32) Brett Anderson
33) Matt Cain
34) David Price
35) Jorge De La Rosa
36) Clay Buchholz
37) Madison Bumgarner
38) Jhoulys Chacin
39) Chad Billingsley
40) Aaron Harang
41) Jeremy Hellickson
42) Jason Hammel
43) Travis Wood
44) Tim Hudson
45) James Shields
46) Trevor Cahill
47) Jonathan Sanchez
48) Brandon Webb
49) Edison Volquez
50) Jake Peavy
51) Ted Lilly
52) Jaime Garcia
53) Phil Hughes
54) John Danks
55) Gio Gonzalez
56) Ricky Nolasco
57) Ricky Romero
58) C.J. Wilson
59) Edwin Jackson
60) Clayton Richard
61) Matt Garza
62) Ian Kennedy
63) Scott Baker
64) Phil Coke
65) A.J. Burnett
66) Joel Piniero
67) Jordan Zimmerman
68) Johnny Cueto
69) Kyle Drabek
70) Brian Matusz
71) Rich Harden
72) John Lackey
73) Anibal Sanchez
74) Carl Pavano
75) Brett Myers
76) Kyle McClellan
77) J.A. Happ
78) Brian Duensing
79) Bronson Arroyo
80) Tim Stauffer
81) Chris Young
82) Ervin Santana
83) Carlos Zambrano
84) Jair Jurrgens
85) Dallas Braden
86) Brandon Morrow
87) Brad Penny
88) Mike Leake
89) Derek Lowe
90) R.A. Dickey
91) Ivan Nova
92) Carlos Carasco
93) Marc Rzepczynski
94) Mike Pelfrey
95) Derek Holland
96) Dice-K
97) Jeremy Guthrie
98) Jon Garland
99) Jake Westbrook
100) Fausto Carmona
I'd be more than happy to put some board bet wagers based upon my list
_______________________________________
I personally think my best skill set for fantasy baseball purposes is ranking pitchers. It's why I was first in the GOI auction league last year in ERA and WHIP and my knowledge helped me stream pitchers in my head-to-head keeper league that allowed me not only to win the counting stats, but to do so without hurting my ratio stats.
So now that all of my leagues have completed their drafts, I feel safe to announce my rankings. I understand that with baseball four days away chances are these rankings are not going to help anyone out (because the vast majority of people have completed their drafts) but I like having my opinion on the record.
Before we begin, I'd just like to say that coming up with all these pitchers is hard freaking work. We all can rank top 30, but it was a struggle to come up with 100 names.
Now, let the hating begin!
Top 100 Mixed League Pitchers
1) Tim Lincecum
2) Roy Halladay
3) Jon Lester
4) Felix Hernandez
5) Josh Johnson
6) Cliff Lee
7) Clayton Kershaw
8) Javier Vazquez
9) C.C. Sabathia
10) Francisco Liriano
11) Dan Haren
12) Yovani Gallardo
13) Zach Grienke (I'm a little pissed that Grienke got injured because I believed that Gallardo would put up better fantasy numbers than Grienke before the injury. On the plus side, I got Grienke for cheap in the GOI auction league)
14) Justin Verlander
15) Max Scherzer
16) Cole Hamels
17) Ubaldo Jiminez
18) Tommy Hanson
19) Chris Carpenter
20) Mat Latos
21) Shaun Marcum
22) Gavin Floyd
23) Jered Weaver
24) Wandy Rodriguez
25) Hiroki Kuroda
26) Roy Oswalt
27) Colby Lewis
28) Ryan Dempster
29) Daniel Hudson
30) Josh Beckett
31) Wade Davis
32) Brett Anderson
33) Matt Cain
34) David Price
35) Jorge De La Rosa
36) Clay Buchholz
37) Madison Bumgarner
38) Jhoulys Chacin
39) Chad Billingsley
40) Aaron Harang
41) Jeremy Hellickson
42) Jason Hammel
43) Travis Wood
44) Tim Hudson
45) James Shields
46) Trevor Cahill
47) Jonathan Sanchez
48) Brandon Webb
49) Edison Volquez
50) Jake Peavy
51) Ted Lilly
52) Jaime Garcia
53) Phil Hughes
54) John Danks
55) Gio Gonzalez
56) Ricky Nolasco
57) Ricky Romero
58) C.J. Wilson
59) Edwin Jackson
60) Clayton Richard
61) Matt Garza
62) Ian Kennedy
63) Scott Baker
64) Phil Coke
65) A.J. Burnett
66) Joel Piniero
67) Jordan Zimmerman
68) Johnny Cueto
69) Kyle Drabek
70) Brian Matusz
71) Rich Harden
72) John Lackey
73) Anibal Sanchez
74) Carl Pavano
75) Brett Myers
76) Kyle McClellan
77) J.A. Happ
78) Brian Duensing
79) Bronson Arroyo
80) Tim Stauffer
81) Chris Young
82) Ervin Santana
83) Carlos Zambrano
84) Jair Jurrgens
85) Dallas Braden
86) Brandon Morrow
87) Brad Penny
88) Mike Leake
89) Derek Lowe
90) R.A. Dickey
91) Ivan Nova
92) Carlos Carasco
93) Marc Rzepczynski
94) Mike Pelfrey
95) Derek Holland
96) Dice-K
97) Jeremy Guthrie
98) Jon Garland
99) Jake Westbrook
100) Fausto Carmona
I'd be more than happy to put some board bet wagers based upon my list
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Fourteen
You can see my rankings here
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SIDENOTE: In Week 13 when all I did was hit "save" and not do my rankings I had one of my best weeks ever. This choosing EVERY single player shit is hard and I'm sucking at it this year.
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SIDENOTE: In Week 13 when all I did was hit "save" and not do my rankings I had one of my best weeks ever. This choosing EVERY single player shit is hard and I'm sucking at it this year.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Twelve
While it's technically, according to my clock/ cell phone, Thursday and thus Thanksgiving I still consider the day to be Wednesday until either a) I wake up the next morning or b) The sun comes up before I go to bed. But until either (a) or (b) are met, it's not the next day and thus NOT Thanksgiving and therefore I'm not obligated by blogging law to mention "what I'm thankful for", But I'll do one anyway.
I'm thankful I'm not dead list in this rankings thingy.
You can see my rankings for Week Twelve here.
I'm thankful I'm not dead list in this rankings thingy.
You can see my rankings for Week Twelve here.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Nine
Currently, I am ranked 30th overall. Out of 38. I'm 28th in QBs, 32th in RB, and 34th in TE.
There is one bright spot in that I'm tenth in wide receiver rankings.
Clearly my instincts and fantasy genius that I have applied to dominate the GOI league has not translated into predictive success. Now my strongest suit has always been ranting and explaining the past, but every week I do give my advice, and for the most part it has probably failed you.
With this in mind I gave great deference to Cubsfan's opinions. I gave SOME deference to Cubsfan when it came to wide rankings but for the most part I used my own gut because THAT has worked out well. But for my TE rankings I just saved and clicked. But for my QB and RB rankings, even though at first glance I hated it, I put a lot of stock into what Cubsfan thought.
So with that disclaimer being said, you can click on "my" rankings here
There is one bright spot in that I'm tenth in wide receiver rankings.
Clearly my instincts and fantasy genius that I have applied to dominate the GOI league has not translated into predictive success. Now my strongest suit has always been ranting and explaining the past, but every week I do give my advice, and for the most part it has probably failed you.
With this in mind I gave great deference to Cubsfan's opinions. I gave SOME deference to Cubsfan when it came to wide rankings but for the most part I used my own gut because THAT has worked out well. But for my TE rankings I just saved and clicked. But for my QB and RB rankings, even though at first glance I hated it, I put a lot of stock into what Cubsfan thought.
So with that disclaimer being said, you can click on "my" rankings here
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Eight
Pardon us while we are experiencing some technical difficulties
Currently, you can click here to see my rankings for now.
This site I use to rank, FantasyPros.com, just started an enabling feature where you can see my picks on GOI instead of clicking to them. But currently their script is not working. Cubsfan, get on this! lol
Currently, you can click here to see my rankings for now.
This site I use to rank, FantasyPros.com, just started an enabling feature where you can see my picks on GOI instead of clicking to them. But currently their script is not working. Cubsfan, get on this! lol
The Indy Injuries From A Fantasy Perspective
Friend of the blog Fantasy Pros asked many of their experts (as yes, I am considered an expert) what will happen with the Indy situation now that Dallas Clark and Austin Collie have gone down with injuries.
As expected, the other six spouted the usual "I live Pierre Garcon and want to marry him and have his kids" cliche dribble. But I took a stand! While I do have unnecessary love for Anthony Gonzalez where I want to marry him and have his kids, I predicted that Gonzalez will be Indy's best receiver behind Reggie Wayne (assuming health, which is a BIG assumption for A-Gon). While my head and the rational world says Garcon should be awesome now, my heart says it will be Gonzalez.
You can read my "full" review here. And I just want to point out, that out of EVERYONE, I am the 5th best predictor of WR fantasy talent. Just sayin'
____________________
EDITOR'S NOTE: Since the release of this post, my reviews regarding the New Orleans running back situation and the non-Wes Welker New England offense situation have also been posted
As expected, the other six spouted the usual "I live Pierre Garcon and want to marry him and have his kids" cliche dribble. But I took a stand! While I do have unnecessary love for Anthony Gonzalez where I want to marry him and have his kids, I predicted that Gonzalez will be Indy's best receiver behind Reggie Wayne (assuming health, which is a BIG assumption for A-Gon). While my head and the rational world says Garcon should be awesome now, my heart says it will be Gonzalez.
You can read my "full" review here. And I just want to point out, that out of EVERYONE, I am the 5th best predictor of WR fantasy talent. Just sayin'
____________________
EDITOR'S NOTE: Since the release of this post, my reviews regarding the New Orleans running back situation and the non-Wes Welker New England offense situation have also been posted
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Four
All my ranking will be posted via FantasyPros.com. I don't rank defenses or kickers just because of the volatility of the positions, especially kickers. I can guess some some certainly how many carries a RB gets or even how many targets/catches a receiver gets- to some extent. But there is no rhyme or reason to how many attempts a kicker will get.
So to visit my Week Four rankings, click here
So to visit my Week Four rankings, click here
Fantasy Football Doctor: Week 3 Pick Ups
1) Jason Snelling | RB | Atlanta | 30% Yahoo! ownership
I'm not 100% convinced Turner won't play in Week Three versus New Orleans, but at a minimum if you own Turner you need to own Snelling (in fact you should have already). Like Brandon Jackson, Snelling has some talent but it's bolstered a damn fine rushing offensive line. Last year, Atlanta has the 10th best rushing O-line and in two games this year has the 4th. Snelling also showed what he can do last week rushing for over 130 yards and three total touchdowns. I don't know that I would drop a whole lot to pick up Snelling, but a definite buy if you have the roster room.
2) DeAngelo Williams | RB | Carolina | 99% Yahoo! ownership
Obviously if you're in a league bigger and tougher than the ones the guys play in in The League, then DeAngelo Williams is already owned and you can't pick him up. But I do think he's a great buy low candidate (his teammate Jonathan Stewart also qualifies). Last year, when Cubsfan thought Williams 2008 MVP season was a fluke, after about four bad games, he sold DeAngelo Williams- for Willis McGahee no less. And soon after the trade, Cubsfan regretted every moment of it. I think you can find a panicky Williams owner this year as well.
In 2008, DeAngelo Williams had 198 rushing yards on 54 carries (good for a meager 3.67 YPC) and no touchdowns. He ended the years as the best fantasy RB and had 18 TDs in 12 games. In 2009, DeAngelo Williams had 220 yards on 59 carries (good for a 3.73 YPC) although he did have 2 TDs. He ended the year (in only 14 games) with a 5.2 YPC. In two games in 2010, he has a 3.5 YPC and no rushing TDs.
To me, Williams is the C.C. Sabathia of fantasy football- a notoriously slow starter that finishes very strong at the end. I still think he ends the year as a top 10 fantasy RB and if you can get him for cheap now or within the next few weeks, do it.
3) Kevin Walter | WR | Houston | 30% Yahoo! ownership
Jacoby Jones was probably the biggest wide receiver sleeper since Devin Aromashodu. Everybody in the pre-season seemed to love this guy. Except for me. I hope I wrote this down somewhere or said it publicly, but I truly believe the Houston receiver you want to own not named Andre Johnson is Kevin Walter.
If you look at Walter's numbers before last year, they looked pretty good. Not clear cut #1 numbers, but a number three wide out in a 12 team, 3 WR league good. In 2008, Walter was the 19th best fantasy wide out and he already has as many TDs (2) and he did all of last year. Yes, as a Walter owner in 2009 he wasn't good, but I like a bounce back year from him and to perform better than Jacoby Jones.
4) Mark Clayton | WR | St. Louis | 53% Yahoo! ownership
Just because I like to pat myself on the back. Last week I recommended Clayton (admittedly not wholeheartedly) and he comes back in Week Two with a 2 TD game. Sure he only got 24 receiving yards but I think he has the ability and can get at least 7-9 fantasy points every week- which is great for a guy you picked off the waiver wire.
5) Marshawn Lynch | RB | Buffalo | 20% Yahoo! ownership
In an unforeseeable turn of events, Lynch led all Bills backs in both yards and carries in Week Two's loss against the Packers. I think if he ends the year in Buffalo, he's their number three fantasy producing back behind Jackson and Spiller, respectively. But I'm also not convinced Lynch ends the year in Buffalo.
I am an avid listener of the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and I'm starting to buy in that 1) Lynch gets traded to another team (and let's be honest, the Bills don't need him. At all.) and 2) the reason Lynch got so many carries and looked "so good" was because the Bills are trying to shop Lynch to the team they were facing- the Packers- who just lost their starting RB for the year.
6) Tony Moeaki | TE | Kansas City | 3% Yahoo! ownership
Last week he got 10 targets and led all KC receivers in yards. In Week One has actually managed to pad Matt Cassel's stats by getting a TD reception. He was a high draft pick and has looked good in two straight weeks. A great high upside back up TE.
If you can afford the roster room and want to take on the risk, Lynch is a good add for you.
Guys I'm not yet sold on:
1) Aaron Hernandez | TE | New England | 9% Yahoo! ownership
He led all Pats receivers in Week Two with 146 receiving yards, he was Nate Ravitz' bold prediction (on the Pats) to do well this year and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. My concern is 1) Randy Moss 2) Wes Welker 3) Rob Gronkowski. Only so much love to go around.
2) Greg Olson | TE | Chicago | 60% Yahoo! ownership
He had a TD (that WAS all him) but otherwise didn't have a reception in Week Two. All I have seen out of him is drop passes, fumble the ball, have a mismatch on defenders and not do anything with it, and not be the Adrian Peterson equivalent of tight ends. My only hope for Olson is looking how well Vernon Davis is doing right now.
3) Joshua Cribbs | WR/ Wildcat QB | Cleveland | 28% Yahoo! ownership
In Week One Mohamed Massaquoi was on my "not to trust week". The next week the Cleveland receiver that has the best day and a good fantasy day is Cribbs. I don't trust ANYONE, in Cleveland right now to start on my fantasy team(s).
4) Run DMC Darren McFadden | RB | Oakland | 84% Yahoo! ownership
I really hated Run DMC coming into the year. But so far he's done nothing but prove me wrong. After a really good game in Week One versus a good Tennessee defense he comes back in Week Two against St. Louis with a 145 yard game. He was the first back taken in one of the best RB draft classes in recent memory but in two years in the NFL hasn't done crap.
I'm still not completely sold on his talent/ health, he has competition with Michael Bush coming back, and one of the two games he's played so far was St. Louis. I'm convinced EVEN I could get 100 rushing yards on 30 carries against St. Louis.
I'm not 100% convinced Turner won't play in Week Three versus New Orleans, but at a minimum if you own Turner you need to own Snelling (in fact you should have already). Like Brandon Jackson, Snelling has some talent but it's bolstered a damn fine rushing offensive line. Last year, Atlanta has the 10th best rushing O-line and in two games this year has the 4th. Snelling also showed what he can do last week rushing for over 130 yards and three total touchdowns. I don't know that I would drop a whole lot to pick up Snelling, but a definite buy if you have the roster room.
2) DeAngelo Williams | RB | Carolina | 99% Yahoo! ownership
Obviously if you're in a league bigger and tougher than the ones the guys play in in The League, then DeAngelo Williams is already owned and you can't pick him up. But I do think he's a great buy low candidate (his teammate Jonathan Stewart also qualifies). Last year, when Cubsfan thought Williams 2008 MVP season was a fluke, after about four bad games, he sold DeAngelo Williams- for Willis McGahee no less. And soon after the trade, Cubsfan regretted every moment of it. I think you can find a panicky Williams owner this year as well.
In 2008, DeAngelo Williams had 198 rushing yards on 54 carries (good for a meager 3.67 YPC) and no touchdowns. He ended the years as the best fantasy RB and had 18 TDs in 12 games. In 2009, DeAngelo Williams had 220 yards on 59 carries (good for a 3.73 YPC) although he did have 2 TDs. He ended the year (in only 14 games) with a 5.2 YPC. In two games in 2010, he has a 3.5 YPC and no rushing TDs.
To me, Williams is the C.C. Sabathia of fantasy football- a notoriously slow starter that finishes very strong at the end. I still think he ends the year as a top 10 fantasy RB and if you can get him for cheap now or within the next few weeks, do it.
3) Kevin Walter | WR | Houston | 30% Yahoo! ownership
Jacoby Jones was probably the biggest wide receiver sleeper since Devin Aromashodu. Everybody in the pre-season seemed to love this guy. Except for me. I hope I wrote this down somewhere or said it publicly, but I truly believe the Houston receiver you want to own not named Andre Johnson is Kevin Walter.
If you look at Walter's numbers before last year, they looked pretty good. Not clear cut #1 numbers, but a number three wide out in a 12 team, 3 WR league good. In 2008, Walter was the 19th best fantasy wide out and he already has as many TDs (2) and he did all of last year. Yes, as a Walter owner in 2009 he wasn't good, but I like a bounce back year from him and to perform better than Jacoby Jones.
4) Mark Clayton | WR | St. Louis | 53% Yahoo! ownership
Just because I like to pat myself on the back. Last week I recommended Clayton (admittedly not wholeheartedly) and he comes back in Week Two with a 2 TD game. Sure he only got 24 receiving yards but I think he has the ability and can get at least 7-9 fantasy points every week- which is great for a guy you picked off the waiver wire.
5) Marshawn Lynch | RB | Buffalo | 20% Yahoo! ownership
In an unforeseeable turn of events, Lynch led all Bills backs in both yards and carries in Week Two's loss against the Packers. I think if he ends the year in Buffalo, he's their number three fantasy producing back behind Jackson and Spiller, respectively. But I'm also not convinced Lynch ends the year in Buffalo.
I am an avid listener of the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and I'm starting to buy in that 1) Lynch gets traded to another team (and let's be honest, the Bills don't need him. At all.) and 2) the reason Lynch got so many carries and looked "so good" was because the Bills are trying to shop Lynch to the team they were facing- the Packers- who just lost their starting RB for the year.
6) Tony Moeaki | TE | Kansas City | 3% Yahoo! ownership
Last week he got 10 targets and led all KC receivers in yards. In Week One has actually managed to pad Matt Cassel's stats by getting a TD reception. He was a high draft pick and has looked good in two straight weeks. A great high upside back up TE.
If you can afford the roster room and want to take on the risk, Lynch is a good add for you.
Guys I'm not yet sold on:
1) Aaron Hernandez | TE | New England | 9% Yahoo! ownership
He led all Pats receivers in Week Two with 146 receiving yards, he was Nate Ravitz' bold prediction (on the Pats) to do well this year and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. My concern is 1) Randy Moss 2) Wes Welker 3) Rob Gronkowski. Only so much love to go around.
2) Greg Olson | TE | Chicago | 60% Yahoo! ownership
He had a TD (that WAS all him) but otherwise didn't have a reception in Week Two. All I have seen out of him is drop passes, fumble the ball, have a mismatch on defenders and not do anything with it, and not be the Adrian Peterson equivalent of tight ends. My only hope for Olson is looking how well Vernon Davis is doing right now.
3) Joshua Cribbs | WR/ Wildcat QB | Cleveland | 28% Yahoo! ownership
In Week One Mohamed Massaquoi was on my "not to trust week". The next week the Cleveland receiver that has the best day and a good fantasy day is Cribbs. I don't trust ANYONE, in Cleveland right now to start on my fantasy team(s).
4) Run DMC Darren McFadden | RB | Oakland | 84% Yahoo! ownership
I really hated Run DMC coming into the year. But so far he's done nothing but prove me wrong. After a really good game in Week One versus a good Tennessee defense he comes back in Week Two against St. Louis with a 145 yard game. He was the first back taken in one of the best RB draft classes in recent memory but in two years in the NFL hasn't done crap.
I'm still not completely sold on his talent/ health, he has competition with Michael Bush coming back, and one of the two games he's played so far was St. Louis. I'm convinced EVEN I could get 100 rushing yards on 30 carries against St. Louis.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Two
QUARTERBACKS
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. BUF)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. NYG)
3. Michael Vick (PHI @ DET)
4. Tony Romo (DAL vs. CHI)
5. Matt Schaub (HOU @ WAS)
6. Drew Brees (NO @ SF)
7. Philip Rivers (SD vs. JAC)
8. Tom Brady (NE @ NYJ)
9. Brett Favre (MIN vs. MIA)
10. Jay Cutler (CHI @ DAL)
11. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. HOU)
12. Kyle Orton (DEN vs. SEA)
13. Eli Manning (NYG @ IND)
14. Joe Flacco (BAL @ CIN)
15. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. BAL)
16. Jason Campbell (OAK vs. STL)
17. Vince Young (TEN vs. PIT)
18. Matt Cassel (KC @ CLE)
19. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA @ DEN)
20. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. ARI)
21. Chad Henne (MIA @ MIN)
22. Alex Smith (SF vs. NO)
23. Dennis Dixon (PIT @ TEN)
24. Sam Bradford (STL @ OAK)
25. David Garrard (JAC @ SD)
RUNNING BACKS
1. Chris Johnson (TEN vs. PIT)
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN vs. MIA)
3. Steven Jackson (STL @ OAK)
4. Frank Gore (SF vs. NO)
5. LeSean McCoy (PHI @ DET)
6. Ray Rice (BAL @ CIN)
7. DeAngelo Williams (CAR vs. TB)
8. Michael Turner (ATL vs. ARI)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG @ IND)
10. Pierre Thomas (NO @ SF)
11. Jamaal Charles (KC @ CLE)
12. Michael Bush (OAK vs. STL)
13. Arian Foster (HOU @ WAS)
14. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC @ SD)
15. Jonathan Stewart (CAR vs. TB)
16. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT @ TEN)
17. Ryan Mathews (SD vs. JAC)
18. Ronnie Brown (MIA @ MIN)
19. Cedric Benson (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Brandon Jackson (GB vs. BUF)
21. Matt Forte (CHI @ DAL)
22. Joseph Addai (IND vs. NYG)
23. Knowshon Moreno (DEN vs. SEA)
24. Shonn Greene (NYJ vs. NE)
25. Clinton Portis (WAS vs. HOU)
26. Jahvid Best (DET vs. PHI)
27. Jerome Harrison (CLE vs. KC)
28. Reggie Bush (NO @ SF)
29. Justin Forsett (SEA @ DEN)
30. Darren McFadden (OAK vs. STL)
31. Felix Jones (DAL vs. CHI)
32. Chris "Beanie" Wells (ARI @ ATL)
33. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (TB @ CAR)
34. C.J. Spiller (BUF @ GB)
35. Tim Hightower (ARI @ ATL)
36. Ricky Williams (MIA @ MIN)
37. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ vs. NE)
38. Peyton Hillis (CLE vs. KC)
39. Thomas Jones (KC @ CLE)
40. Fred Jackson (BUF @ GB)
41. Willis McGahee (BAL @ CIN)
42. Brandon Jacobs (NYG @ IND)
43. Chester Taylor (CHI @ DAL)
44. Marion Barber (DAL vs. CHI)
45. Darren Sproles (SD vs. JAC)
46. Correll Buckhalter (DEN vs. SEA)
47. Leon Washington (SEA @ DEN)
48. Fred Taylor (NE @ NYJ)
49. Steve Slaton (HOU @ WAS)
50. Bernard Scott (CIN vs. BAL)
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson (HOU @ WAS)
2. Miles Austin (DAL vs. CHI)
3. Reggie Wayne (IND vs. NYG)
4. DeSean Jackson (PHI @ DET)
5. Greg Jennings (GB vs. BUF)
6. Roddy White (ATL vs. ARI)
7. Calvin Johnson (DET vs. PHI)
8. Jeremy Maclin (PHI @ DET)
9. Wes Welker (NE @ NYJ)
10. Brandon Marshall (MIA @ MIN)
11. Marques Colston (NO @ SF)
12. Steve Smith (CAR vs. TB)
13. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI @ ATL)
14. Anquan Boldin (BAL @ CIN)
15. Malcolm Floyd (SD vs. JAC)
16. Percy Harvin (MIN vs. MIA)
17. Steve Smith (NYG @ IND)
18. Michael Crabtree (SF vs. NO)
19. Chad Ochocinco (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Dwayne Bowe (KC @ CLE)
21. Devin Aromashodu (CHI @ DAL)
22. Brandon Lloyd (DEN vs. SEA)
23. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC @ SD)
24. Johnny Knox (CHI @ DAL)
25. Hakeem Nicks (NYG @ IND)
26. Mike Wallace (PIT @ TEN)
27. Steve Breaston (ARI @ ATL)
28. Dez Bryant (DAL vs. CHI)
29. Hines Ward (PIT @ TEN)
30. Donald Driver (GB vs. BUF)
31. Devery Henderson (NO @ SF)
32. Eddie Royal (DEN vs. SEA)
33. Santana Moss (WAS vs. HOU)
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ vs. NE)
35. Pierre Garcon (IND vs. NYG)
36. Terrell Owens (CIN vs. BAL)
37. Lee Evans (BUF @ GB)
38. Derrick Mason (BAL @ CIN)
39. Randy Moss (NE @ NYJ)
40. Mike Williams (SEA @ DEN)
41. Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE vs. KC)
42. Chris Chambers (KC @ CLE)
43. Kevin Walter (HOU @ WAS)
44. Legedu Naanee (SD vs. JAC)
45. Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK vs. STL)
46. Jacoby Jones (HOU @ WAS)
47. Josh Cribbs (CLE vs. KC)
48. Dexter McCluster (KC @ CLE)
49. Laurent Robinson (STL @ OAK)
50. Nate Washington (TEN vs. PIT)
51. Bernard Berrian (MIN vs. MIA)
52. Jabar Gaffney (DEN vs. SEA)
53. Devin Hester (CHI @ DAL)
54. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ vs. NE)
55. Nate Burleson (DET vs. PHI)
56. Roy Williams (DAL vs. CHI)
57. Anthony Gonzalez (IND vs. NYG)
58. Deion Branch (SEA @ DEN)
59. Lance Moore (NO @ SF)
60. Mike Williams (TB @ CAR)
1. Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. BUF)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. NYG)
3. Michael Vick (PHI @ DET)
4. Tony Romo (DAL vs. CHI)
5. Matt Schaub (HOU @ WAS)
6. Drew Brees (NO @ SF)
7. Philip Rivers (SD vs. JAC)
8. Tom Brady (NE @ NYJ)
9. Brett Favre (MIN vs. MIA)
10. Jay Cutler (CHI @ DAL)
11. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. HOU)
12. Kyle Orton (DEN vs. SEA)
13. Eli Manning (NYG @ IND)
14. Joe Flacco (BAL @ CIN)
15. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. BAL)
16. Jason Campbell (OAK vs. STL)
17. Vince Young (TEN vs. PIT)
18. Matt Cassel (KC @ CLE)
19. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA @ DEN)
20. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. ARI)
21. Chad Henne (MIA @ MIN)
22. Alex Smith (SF vs. NO)
23. Dennis Dixon (PIT @ TEN)
24. Sam Bradford (STL @ OAK)
25. David Garrard (JAC @ SD)
RUNNING BACKS
1. Chris Johnson (TEN vs. PIT)
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN vs. MIA)
3. Steven Jackson (STL @ OAK)
4. Frank Gore (SF vs. NO)
5. LeSean McCoy (PHI @ DET)
6. Ray Rice (BAL @ CIN)
7. DeAngelo Williams (CAR vs. TB)
8. Michael Turner (ATL vs. ARI)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG @ IND)
10. Pierre Thomas (NO @ SF)
11. Jamaal Charles (KC @ CLE)
12. Michael Bush (OAK vs. STL)
13. Arian Foster (HOU @ WAS)
14. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC @ SD)
15. Jonathan Stewart (CAR vs. TB)
16. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT @ TEN)
17. Ryan Mathews (SD vs. JAC)
18. Ronnie Brown (MIA @ MIN)
19. Cedric Benson (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Brandon Jackson (GB vs. BUF)
21. Matt Forte (CHI @ DAL)
22. Joseph Addai (IND vs. NYG)
23. Knowshon Moreno (DEN vs. SEA)
24. Shonn Greene (NYJ vs. NE)
25. Clinton Portis (WAS vs. HOU)
26. Jahvid Best (DET vs. PHI)
27. Jerome Harrison (CLE vs. KC)
28. Reggie Bush (NO @ SF)
29. Justin Forsett (SEA @ DEN)
30. Darren McFadden (OAK vs. STL)
31. Felix Jones (DAL vs. CHI)
32. Chris "Beanie" Wells (ARI @ ATL)
33. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (TB @ CAR)
34. C.J. Spiller (BUF @ GB)
35. Tim Hightower (ARI @ ATL)
36. Ricky Williams (MIA @ MIN)
37. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ vs. NE)
38. Peyton Hillis (CLE vs. KC)
39. Thomas Jones (KC @ CLE)
40. Fred Jackson (BUF @ GB)
41. Willis McGahee (BAL @ CIN)
42. Brandon Jacobs (NYG @ IND)
43. Chester Taylor (CHI @ DAL)
44. Marion Barber (DAL vs. CHI)
45. Darren Sproles (SD vs. JAC)
46. Correll Buckhalter (DEN vs. SEA)
47. Leon Washington (SEA @ DEN)
48. Fred Taylor (NE @ NYJ)
49. Steve Slaton (HOU @ WAS)
50. Bernard Scott (CIN vs. BAL)
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson (HOU @ WAS)
2. Miles Austin (DAL vs. CHI)
3. Reggie Wayne (IND vs. NYG)
4. DeSean Jackson (PHI @ DET)
5. Greg Jennings (GB vs. BUF)
6. Roddy White (ATL vs. ARI)
7. Calvin Johnson (DET vs. PHI)
8. Jeremy Maclin (PHI @ DET)
9. Wes Welker (NE @ NYJ)
10. Brandon Marshall (MIA @ MIN)
11. Marques Colston (NO @ SF)
12. Steve Smith (CAR vs. TB)
13. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI @ ATL)
14. Anquan Boldin (BAL @ CIN)
15. Malcolm Floyd (SD vs. JAC)
16. Percy Harvin (MIN vs. MIA)
17. Steve Smith (NYG @ IND)
18. Michael Crabtree (SF vs. NO)
19. Chad Ochocinco (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Dwayne Bowe (KC @ CLE)
21. Devin Aromashodu (CHI @ DAL)
22. Brandon Lloyd (DEN vs. SEA)
23. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC @ SD)
24. Johnny Knox (CHI @ DAL)
25. Hakeem Nicks (NYG @ IND)
26. Mike Wallace (PIT @ TEN)
27. Steve Breaston (ARI @ ATL)
28. Dez Bryant (DAL vs. CHI)
29. Hines Ward (PIT @ TEN)
30. Donald Driver (GB vs. BUF)
31. Devery Henderson (NO @ SF)
32. Eddie Royal (DEN vs. SEA)
33. Santana Moss (WAS vs. HOU)
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ vs. NE)
35. Pierre Garcon (IND vs. NYG)
36. Terrell Owens (CIN vs. BAL)
37. Lee Evans (BUF @ GB)
38. Derrick Mason (BAL @ CIN)
39. Randy Moss (NE @ NYJ)
40. Mike Williams (SEA @ DEN)
41. Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE vs. KC)
42. Chris Chambers (KC @ CLE)
43. Kevin Walter (HOU @ WAS)
44. Legedu Naanee (SD vs. JAC)
45. Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK vs. STL)
46. Jacoby Jones (HOU @ WAS)
47. Josh Cribbs (CLE vs. KC)
48. Dexter McCluster (KC @ CLE)
49. Laurent Robinson (STL @ OAK)
50. Nate Washington (TEN vs. PIT)
51. Bernard Berrian (MIN vs. MIA)
52. Jabar Gaffney (DEN vs. SEA)
53. Devin Hester (CHI @ DAL)
54. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ vs. NE)
55. Nate Burleson (DET vs. PHI)
56. Roy Williams (DAL vs. CHI)
57. Anthony Gonzalez (IND vs. NYG)
58. Deion Branch (SEA @ DEN)
59. Lance Moore (NO @ SF)
60. Mike Williams (TB @ CAR)
Fantast Football Doctor: Week 2 Pick Ups
Analogous to what David "MVP" Eckstein does for The Hardball Times, I'm going to do for all you GOI fans. I promise I originally came up with the idea of doing (at least I will try and do) a weekly pick up column after watching Michael Vick run and have is way with the Packers. But then I started reading some of DME's THT stuff and I really like the format they use. So I'm going to steal it. A small tweak, I'm going to rank my pick ups (because in a league like the GOI league where all players go into waivers every week so you have to put out waiver claims and you have to rank your waiver claims) in order of where you should rank your waiver claims
1) Brandon Jackson | Green Bay | RB | 33% Yahoo! ownership
My guess is that Jackson's high ownership is because of many leagues that do not have a waiver wire system and that you can pick up any player at any time. With Ryan Grant officially out for the entire year, everyone needs to pick up Jackson. I know he didn't get the goal line TD, but he's going to be the clear cut #1 starting RB in Green Bay. Remember folks, Grant was no top tier draft pick. At one point he was the Giants #5 RB (behind Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, and Droughs) and he was better than Samkon Gado. Yes, an "In Gado We Trust" reference. Last year Green Bay ranked eighth in run blocking offensive lines, which bodes well for any running back.
Nevertheless, Jackson will be a starting running back on a very good offensive team. Even if you have like Ray Rice and DeAngello Williams (which I do have in a very shallow league), Jackson can at least be used on your bench/ for trade bait.
In FAAB leagues I would waste all my money on Jackson. Very rare will a starting RB come into the league that isn't on somebody's bench already.
2) Michael Vick | Philadelphia | QB | 22% Yahoo! ownership
Not only is he on an Andy Reid team (which throws it 60% of the time) but Vick will get rushing yards (it's easier to rack up fantasy points with rushing yards than passing yards) and he looked really good against a very good defense in Green Bay. Last week Vick led all Eagles in carries and rushing yards (in fact he was top 5 of all players in rushing yards). And ESPECIALLY if you lost Kevin Kolb, you need to get Vick.
If Kolb also went down for the rest of the reason I would rank Vick as my 9th best QB of the year. Vick looked accurate, has some great receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, and is a more proven quarterback than Kevin Kolb is.
Now I do think when Kolb is healthy, he will be the clear cut starter and there will be no controversy. I don't think you trade away Donovan McNabb just to start Vick when you have the opportunity to start Kolb. But concussions are a funny injury and it wouldn't surprise me if Kolb came back in two weeks or eights weeks.
3) Brandon Lloyd | Denver | WR | 8% Yahoo! ownership
Now I play mainly in very deep leagues this year and where the WR depth is scarce so Llyod is a more attractive offer to me, but I like him a lot. In the preseason the debate with whether the Denver WR you wanted was Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney. But if Lloyd is healthy, I think you want him over either of those two guys (and I like Royal a lot). Now, yes, Lloyd is an Illinois alum so I'm extremely EXTREMELY biased, but last week he led all Denver wide outs in receiving yards and fantasy points. While Royal got 10 targets, Lloyd got 8, more than half of Gaffney (3).
I've seen Lloyd play in Chicago and a little bit everywhere else and I'm a big fan of his talent, but he's never been able to stay healthy. But when on the field, I like him a lot. But when, not if but when, he goes down, I like Royal. Not only did I like him in the preseason (I have two board bets with Royal vs. Thomas against Cubsfan and Royal v. Gaffney vs. FFSpin) but Jabar Gaffney hasn't done anything in the pros yet. And he had Tom Brady throwing to him at one point.
4) Peyton Hillis | Cleveland | RB | 10% Yahoo! ownership
The Browns just do not like Jerome Harrison. With Montario Hardesty getting injured, everybody thought Harrison would be a legit #1 back and thus be fantasy useful. But last week, both Hillis and Harrison got the same amount of carries (9). While I think Harrison is the better talent and better player, I will still take a guy who at least is getting consistent carries.
I like Peyton Hillis because two years ago, when I won the 'Game of Inches' league (I put that in quotes because this years GOI league essentially has the same fantasy owners as my league did two years ago) I picked up Peyton Hillis because the Broncos, without hyperbole, had lost at least five of their starting runnings backs and were forced to stat Hillis- who did very well.
So if the Browns are going to continue to feed Hillis the rock, I'm going to continue to tout him.
5) Mark Clayton | St. Louis | WR | 20% Yahoo! ownership
I only like Clayon for the deepest of leagues. That Rams offensive line is terrible which in turn will make Sam Bradford not that good. I love the talent of Bradford and with time and a MUCH improved offensive line and this young receiving corps, I have no doubt Bradford could be very good one day. Just not this year. And it's not like Mary Clayton was a stud during his stint in Baltimore.
But he did catch 10 balls for 119 yards on Sunday. I know St. Louis will be down all year and thus will be forced to throw. But that happened last year and it's not like any Rams outside of Steven Jackson were any good last year. You can be down and throwing like in Carolina and just not be effective/ give up INTs and such.
But despite everything negative I have just said I think if you have the bench room, Clayton is a nice flyer because he still is by far and away the best receiver the Rams have, he so far has good chemistry with Bradford, and the Rams will be throwing a lot. And I did rank Clayton as my 39th best wide out (which is a start in 14+ 3 wide out leagues).
Guys I'm not yet sold on:
(These are guys who I'm not yet ready to recommend. Guys I'm not completely sold that they will continue to put up good fantasy numbers in the future but won't be surprised if they do)
Legedu Naanee | San Diego | WR | 26% Yahoo! ownership
Philip Rivers is awesome so I don't doubt he can make Naanee put up better numbers than even Naanee thought possible. But I think think Malcolm Floyd puts up the best fantasy numbers of any wide out there (assuming Vincent Jackson doesn't immediately play after his suspension, and I don't think Jackson will play a down for San Diego this year). Last year, Floyd was 7th in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 18th in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). This made him better than DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason, and Brandon Marshall in the limited amount of time Floyd played. So when Floyd far and away led the Chargers in targets yet had a bad fantasy game and Naanee had the good one, I don't trust that Naanee will continue to be the wide out that has the good day. I want to see what he can do with Floyd starts to go off (or continuously not catch passes).
Austin Collie | Indianapolis | WR | 72% Yahoo! ownership
How often will you see Collie led all Colts receivers in receiving yards? My guess is this happens once, MAYBE twice the rest of the year. He had some great games last year but I think Garcon and Wayne will continue to take "catches" away from Collie and I believe Anthony Gonzalez will too. As good as Peyton Manning is, he can't throw 400+ yards EVERY game to give three Colts wide out great fantasy days. For the rest of the year I rank Colts receivers 1. Reggie Wayne 2. Pierre Garcon 3. Anthony Gonzalez 4. Austin Collie. I think this game is a fluke unless Collie shows me otherwise. The burden of proof is on you Austin!
Mohamed Massaquoi | Cleveland | WR | 49% Yahoo! ownership
This guy was a highly touted sleeper last year and did nothing. He's on a bad team, he has Turnover McGee and a Derek-Anderson-quality (still) QB in Jake Delhomme throwing to him and he only got 2 catches for 46 yards but had a good fantasy day because he caught a touchdown.
Carson Palmer | Cincinnati | QB | 92% Yahoo! ownership
Palmer was a top 5 quarterback in the league during his first four years in the NFL. But then in a playoff game in 2008, he tore up his knee. Since then he's never been the same. I drafted Palmer last year as my back up because he had more than a year to recover from his surgery, he had his boy Chad Ochocinco to throw to, yet put up a disappointing season. He just didn't look the same. I joked with Scott Pashley of FFSpin during our podcast, that before Sunday's game, I could make the argument that the best USC quarterback in the game right now was Matt Cassel. It would not shock me one bit if Palmer becomes a top 10 quarterback again because the man clearly has talent a good receiving corps, but I need to see more- especially in front of a better defense than New England.
1) Brandon Jackson | Green Bay | RB | 33% Yahoo! ownership
My guess is that Jackson's high ownership is because of many leagues that do not have a waiver wire system and that you can pick up any player at any time. With Ryan Grant officially out for the entire year, everyone needs to pick up Jackson. I know he didn't get the goal line TD, but he's going to be the clear cut #1 starting RB in Green Bay. Remember folks, Grant was no top tier draft pick. At one point he was the Giants #5 RB (behind Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, and Droughs) and he was better than Samkon Gado. Yes, an "In Gado We Trust" reference. Last year Green Bay ranked eighth in run blocking offensive lines, which bodes well for any running back.
Nevertheless, Jackson will be a starting running back on a very good offensive team. Even if you have like Ray Rice and DeAngello Williams (which I do have in a very shallow league), Jackson can at least be used on your bench/ for trade bait.
In FAAB leagues I would waste all my money on Jackson. Very rare will a starting RB come into the league that isn't on somebody's bench already.
2) Michael Vick | Philadelphia | QB | 22% Yahoo! ownership
Not only is he on an Andy Reid team (which throws it 60% of the time) but Vick will get rushing yards (it's easier to rack up fantasy points with rushing yards than passing yards) and he looked really good against a very good defense in Green Bay. Last week Vick led all Eagles in carries and rushing yards (in fact he was top 5 of all players in rushing yards). And ESPECIALLY if you lost Kevin Kolb, you need to get Vick.
If Kolb also went down for the rest of the reason I would rank Vick as my 9th best QB of the year. Vick looked accurate, has some great receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, and is a more proven quarterback than Kevin Kolb is.
Now I do think when Kolb is healthy, he will be the clear cut starter and there will be no controversy. I don't think you trade away Donovan McNabb just to start Vick when you have the opportunity to start Kolb. But concussions are a funny injury and it wouldn't surprise me if Kolb came back in two weeks or eights weeks.
3) Brandon Lloyd | Denver | WR | 8% Yahoo! ownership
Now I play mainly in very deep leagues this year and where the WR depth is scarce so Llyod is a more attractive offer to me, but I like him a lot. In the preseason the debate with whether the Denver WR you wanted was Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney. But if Lloyd is healthy, I think you want him over either of those two guys (and I like Royal a lot). Now, yes, Lloyd is an Illinois alum so I'm extremely EXTREMELY biased, but last week he led all Denver wide outs in receiving yards and fantasy points. While Royal got 10 targets, Lloyd got 8, more than half of Gaffney (3).
I've seen Lloyd play in Chicago and a little bit everywhere else and I'm a big fan of his talent, but he's never been able to stay healthy. But when on the field, I like him a lot. But when, not if but when, he goes down, I like Royal. Not only did I like him in the preseason (I have two board bets with Royal vs. Thomas against Cubsfan and Royal v. Gaffney vs. FFSpin) but Jabar Gaffney hasn't done anything in the pros yet. And he had Tom Brady throwing to him at one point.
4) Peyton Hillis | Cleveland | RB | 10% Yahoo! ownership
The Browns just do not like Jerome Harrison. With Montario Hardesty getting injured, everybody thought Harrison would be a legit #1 back and thus be fantasy useful. But last week, both Hillis and Harrison got the same amount of carries (9). While I think Harrison is the better talent and better player, I will still take a guy who at least is getting consistent carries.
I like Peyton Hillis because two years ago, when I won the 'Game of Inches' league (I put that in quotes because this years GOI league essentially has the same fantasy owners as my league did two years ago) I picked up Peyton Hillis because the Broncos, without hyperbole, had lost at least five of their starting runnings backs and were forced to stat Hillis- who did very well.
So if the Browns are going to continue to feed Hillis the rock, I'm going to continue to tout him.
5) Mark Clayton | St. Louis | WR | 20% Yahoo! ownership
I only like Clayon for the deepest of leagues. That Rams offensive line is terrible which in turn will make Sam Bradford not that good. I love the talent of Bradford and with time and a MUCH improved offensive line and this young receiving corps, I have no doubt Bradford could be very good one day. Just not this year. And it's not like Mary Clayton was a stud during his stint in Baltimore.
But he did catch 10 balls for 119 yards on Sunday. I know St. Louis will be down all year and thus will be forced to throw. But that happened last year and it's not like any Rams outside of Steven Jackson were any good last year. You can be down and throwing like in Carolina and just not be effective/ give up INTs and such.
But despite everything negative I have just said I think if you have the bench room, Clayton is a nice flyer because he still is by far and away the best receiver the Rams have, he so far has good chemistry with Bradford, and the Rams will be throwing a lot. And I did rank Clayton as my 39th best wide out (which is a start in 14+ 3 wide out leagues).
Guys I'm not yet sold on:
(These are guys who I'm not yet ready to recommend. Guys I'm not completely sold that they will continue to put up good fantasy numbers in the future but won't be surprised if they do)
Legedu Naanee | San Diego | WR | 26% Yahoo! ownership
Philip Rivers is awesome so I don't doubt he can make Naanee put up better numbers than even Naanee thought possible. But I think think Malcolm Floyd puts up the best fantasy numbers of any wide out there (assuming Vincent Jackson doesn't immediately play after his suspension, and I don't think Jackson will play a down for San Diego this year). Last year, Floyd was 7th in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 18th in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). This made him better than DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason, and Brandon Marshall in the limited amount of time Floyd played. So when Floyd far and away led the Chargers in targets yet had a bad fantasy game and Naanee had the good one, I don't trust that Naanee will continue to be the wide out that has the good day. I want to see what he can do with Floyd starts to go off (or continuously not catch passes).
Austin Collie | Indianapolis | WR | 72% Yahoo! ownership
How often will you see Collie led all Colts receivers in receiving yards? My guess is this happens once, MAYBE twice the rest of the year. He had some great games last year but I think Garcon and Wayne will continue to take "catches" away from Collie and I believe Anthony Gonzalez will too. As good as Peyton Manning is, he can't throw 400+ yards EVERY game to give three Colts wide out great fantasy days. For the rest of the year I rank Colts receivers 1. Reggie Wayne 2. Pierre Garcon 3. Anthony Gonzalez 4. Austin Collie. I think this game is a fluke unless Collie shows me otherwise. The burden of proof is on you Austin!
Mohamed Massaquoi | Cleveland | WR | 49% Yahoo! ownership
This guy was a highly touted sleeper last year and did nothing. He's on a bad team, he has Turnover McGee and a Derek-Anderson-quality (still) QB in Jake Delhomme throwing to him and he only got 2 catches for 46 yards but had a good fantasy day because he caught a touchdown.
Carson Palmer | Cincinnati | QB | 92% Yahoo! ownership
Palmer was a top 5 quarterback in the league during his first four years in the NFL. But then in a playoff game in 2008, he tore up his knee. Since then he's never been the same. I drafted Palmer last year as my back up because he had more than a year to recover from his surgery, he had his boy Chad Ochocinco to throw to, yet put up a disappointing season. He just didn't look the same. I joked with Scott Pashley of FFSpin during our podcast, that before Sunday's game, I could make the argument that the best USC quarterback in the game right now was Matt Cassel. It would not shock me one bit if Palmer becomes a top 10 quarterback again because the man clearly has talent a good receiving corps, but I need to see more- especially in front of a better defense than New England.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Sleepers In 2010
I have been patiently waiting and keeping all my players a secret. But now that the Game Of Inches' 14 team, 1/2 PPR, auction league draft has concluded, I can now give away my secrets. (BTW: you can access and look at the league here)
Here is my rankings in a standard scoring league for quarterbacks and running backs
RUNNING BACKS
1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) Michael Turner
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Frank Gore
7) Steven Jackson
8) DeAngelo Williams
9) Rashard Mendenhall
10) Ryan Grant
11) Cedric Benson
12) Joseph Addai
13) Jonathan Stewart
14) Ryan Matthews
15) Jamaal Charles
16) Matt Forte
17) Pierre Thomas
18) Knowshown Moreno
19) Justin Forsett
20) Arian Foster
21) Ahmad Bradshaw
22) Beanie Wells
23) Felix Jones
24) LeSean McCoy
25) Shonn Greene
26) Jerome Harrison
27) Clinton Portis
28) Fred Jackson
29) Reggie Bush
30) Ricky Williams
31) Jahvid Best
32) Ronnie Brown
33) Michael Bush
34) LaDanian Tomlinson
35) Marion Barber
36) Brandon Jacobs
37) Tim Hightower
38) CJ Spiller
39) Kevin Smith
40) Fred Taylor
Some quick notes about this because I'm sure if you're reading this you most assuredly disagree
- I love Ray Rice. I don't hide it. I think if I had the 3rd pick in a draft, I would take Rice over MJD. And then I put MJD next to Michael Turner and I choose Turner. Turner was awesome two years ago and was awesome when he played last year. No curse of the 370 for this season. It's not that I don't like MJD because I do, I would just choose others ahead of him. Lots o' studs this year.
- I don't like Shonn Greene this year. When he plays, he'll be awesome. That Jets O-line is amazing and they'll run the ball like crazy. But Greene is extremely injury prone and I don't think he stays healthy this year. So my ranking reflects his final overall numbers for the year.
- Same to be said for Reggie Bush, except I do like him.
- I'm a big believer that Justin Forsett and Felix Jones will break out of their clusterfuck situation and be their teams legit #1 back.
- I'm a believer that Pierre Thomas and LeSean McCoy will not.
- I think people are WAY overvaluing Ryan Matthews and I stayed clear away from him in the two drafts I had today.
- I am not aboard the CJ Spiller bandwagon.
QUARTERBACKS
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Peyton Manning
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Tony Romo
6) Joe Flacco
7) Matt Schaub
8) Phillip Rivers
9) Brett Favre
10) Kevin Kolb
11) Jay Cutler
12) Ben Roethlisberger
13) Eli Manning
14) Donovan McNabb
15) Chad Henne
If you have to go past Chad Henne then you're probably screwed
Some more quick notes:
- I love Joe Flacco this year. Read why here.
- I'm also extremely superstitious and believe in the Madden curse. This year I think it affects its cover boy Drew Brees.
- I also have a Board Bet with Cubsfan that Tom Brady finishes ahead of at least one of the following: Rodgers, Manning, Brees. I think Brady has fully recovered from his ACL surgery and returns closer to his 50 TD form than is usual 28 TD form.
- I love Matt Schaub. I drafted him last year in a league late and he was nothing but money in the bank. But I think he suffers from the "Shonn Greene Syndrome". Guy has never played in all 16 games before last year and I don't trust that he does it again last year.
- I love the talent of Phillip Rivers even more than Schaub but with the Vincent Jackson hold out, I don't trust that Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd (whom I love, see below) will cut it to give Rivers his numbers. Not even with Antonio Gates there.
- I like Chad Henne a lot and he's my back up in the 14 team league. Three out of his last five games he threw for 300+ yards. And now he has Brandon Marshall.
- Jay Cutler's interception rate was so statistically high and out of sync with his career that I refuse to believe he comes close to what he did in 2009 in 2010. You take away Cutler's interceptions and his numbers last year look really good.
WIDE RECEIVERS
While I do not have specific rankings for wide outs (because I do extremely extensive analysis when I project my wide outs), I have done many post prior about how I project certain receivers. Here are my predictions for some receivers (click on the name to see how I came up with my projections).
- Santonio Holmes
55 receptions/ 675 yards/ 4 TDs
-Brandon Marshall
99 receptions/ 1195 yards/ 7 TDs
-Anquan Boldin
92 receptions/ 1100 yards/ 9 TDs/
-Derrick Mason
52 receptions/ 730 yards/ 5 TDs
-Mark Clayton
25 receptions/ 352 yards/ 2 TDs
SLEEPERS
- Mike Wallace
With only 39 receptions last year he had a little over 750 yards and 6 TDs. With Santonio Holmes now gone Walalce gets more targets, receptions, and fantasy points.
- Malcolm Floyd
He put up good numbers with Vincent Jackson last year and now that he's the legitimate number one (I don't think Jackson plays a whole lot, if at all, in San Diego) he'll get the "Mike Wallace" effect
- Steve Breaston
see above. Plus he has a 1000+ yard season under his belt already.
- Joe Flacco
Haven't you read my previous post yet?
- Johnny Knox
If Devin Aromashodu is the trendy sleeper and I think Knox will be better than D.A. (currently ranked lower) then by the transitive property Johnny Knox is a trendy sleeper.
- Felix Jones
My gut tells me that Jones' awesome talent (drafted in the first round bee tee dubs) wins him the starting job and emerges like what Ray Rice did last year. But if I'm basing any decision off of my guy as opposed actual statistics, then I'm probably wrong. We don't base decisions here at GOI with our eyes, only with the numbers we see on a page!
- Justin Forsett
See Jones, Felix above.
- Fred Taylor
He was my Elijah Dukes last year, so why not this year too.
- Anthony Gonzalez
A super super super deep sleeper. I know Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged last year but A-Gon (another first round draft pick) is currently the Colts' #2 starter behind Reggie Wayne and he's showed to be awesome when he plays.
Here is my rankings in a standard scoring league for quarterbacks and running backs
RUNNING BACKS
1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) Michael Turner
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Frank Gore
7) Steven Jackson
8) DeAngelo Williams
9) Rashard Mendenhall
10) Ryan Grant
11) Cedric Benson
12) Joseph Addai
13) Jonathan Stewart
14) Ryan Matthews
15) Jamaal Charles
16) Matt Forte
17) Pierre Thomas
18) Knowshown Moreno
19) Justin Forsett
20) Arian Foster
21) Ahmad Bradshaw
22) Beanie Wells
23) Felix Jones
24) LeSean McCoy
25) Shonn Greene
26) Jerome Harrison
27) Clinton Portis
28) Fred Jackson
29) Reggie Bush
30) Ricky Williams
31) Jahvid Best
32) Ronnie Brown
33) Michael Bush
34) LaDanian Tomlinson
35) Marion Barber
36) Brandon Jacobs
37) Tim Hightower
38) CJ Spiller
39) Kevin Smith
40) Fred Taylor
Some quick notes about this because I'm sure if you're reading this you most assuredly disagree
- I love Ray Rice. I don't hide it. I think if I had the 3rd pick in a draft, I would take Rice over MJD. And then I put MJD next to Michael Turner and I choose Turner. Turner was awesome two years ago and was awesome when he played last year. No curse of the 370 for this season. It's not that I don't like MJD because I do, I would just choose others ahead of him. Lots o' studs this year.
- I don't like Shonn Greene this year. When he plays, he'll be awesome. That Jets O-line is amazing and they'll run the ball like crazy. But Greene is extremely injury prone and I don't think he stays healthy this year. So my ranking reflects his final overall numbers for the year.
- Same to be said for Reggie Bush, except I do like him.
- I'm a big believer that Justin Forsett and Felix Jones will break out of their clusterfuck situation and be their teams legit #1 back.
- I'm a believer that Pierre Thomas and LeSean McCoy will not.
- I think people are WAY overvaluing Ryan Matthews and I stayed clear away from him in the two drafts I had today.
- I am not aboard the CJ Spiller bandwagon.
QUARTERBACKS
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Peyton Manning
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Tony Romo
6) Joe Flacco
7) Matt Schaub
8) Phillip Rivers
9) Brett Favre
10) Kevin Kolb
11) Jay Cutler
12) Ben Roethlisberger
13) Eli Manning
14) Donovan McNabb
15) Chad Henne
If you have to go past Chad Henne then you're probably screwed
Some more quick notes:
- I love Joe Flacco this year. Read why here.
- I'm also extremely superstitious and believe in the Madden curse. This year I think it affects its cover boy Drew Brees.
- I also have a Board Bet with Cubsfan that Tom Brady finishes ahead of at least one of the following: Rodgers, Manning, Brees. I think Brady has fully recovered from his ACL surgery and returns closer to his 50 TD form than is usual 28 TD form.
- I love Matt Schaub. I drafted him last year in a league late and he was nothing but money in the bank. But I think he suffers from the "Shonn Greene Syndrome". Guy has never played in all 16 games before last year and I don't trust that he does it again last year.
- I love the talent of Phillip Rivers even more than Schaub but with the Vincent Jackson hold out, I don't trust that Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd (whom I love, see below) will cut it to give Rivers his numbers. Not even with Antonio Gates there.
- I like Chad Henne a lot and he's my back up in the 14 team league. Three out of his last five games he threw for 300+ yards. And now he has Brandon Marshall.
- Jay Cutler's interception rate was so statistically high and out of sync with his career that I refuse to believe he comes close to what he did in 2009 in 2010. You take away Cutler's interceptions and his numbers last year look really good.
WIDE RECEIVERS
While I do not have specific rankings for wide outs (because I do extremely extensive analysis when I project my wide outs), I have done many post prior about how I project certain receivers. Here are my predictions for some receivers (click on the name to see how I came up with my projections).
- Santonio Holmes
55 receptions/ 675 yards/ 4 TDs
-Brandon Marshall
99 receptions/ 1195 yards/ 7 TDs
-Anquan Boldin
92 receptions/ 1100 yards/ 9 TDs/
-Derrick Mason
52 receptions/ 730 yards/ 5 TDs
-Mark Clayton
25 receptions/ 352 yards/ 2 TDs
SLEEPERS
- Mike Wallace
With only 39 receptions last year he had a little over 750 yards and 6 TDs. With Santonio Holmes now gone Walalce gets more targets, receptions, and fantasy points.
- Malcolm Floyd
He put up good numbers with Vincent Jackson last year and now that he's the legitimate number one (I don't think Jackson plays a whole lot, if at all, in San Diego) he'll get the "Mike Wallace" effect
- Steve Breaston
see above. Plus he has a 1000+ yard season under his belt already.
- Joe Flacco
Haven't you read my previous post yet?
- Johnny Knox
If Devin Aromashodu is the trendy sleeper and I think Knox will be better than D.A. (currently ranked lower) then by the transitive property Johnny Knox is a trendy sleeper.
- Felix Jones
My gut tells me that Jones' awesome talent (drafted in the first round bee tee dubs) wins him the starting job and emerges like what Ray Rice did last year. But if I'm basing any decision off of my guy as opposed actual statistics, then I'm probably wrong. We don't base decisions here at GOI with our eyes, only with the numbers we see on a page!
- Justin Forsett
See Jones, Felix above.
- Fred Taylor
He was my Elijah Dukes last year, so why not this year too.
- Anthony Gonzalez
A super super super deep sleeper. I know Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged last year but A-Gon (another first round draft pick) is currently the Colts' #2 starter behind Reggie Wayne and he's showed to be awesome when he plays.
Why I Hate Adam Dunn: An Analysis Into Batting Average and Fantasy Baseball
I hate Adam Dunn because he's slow, he can't hit the ball, he's awful at defense, and he doesn't care about baseball. Oh wait, that's why baseball GM's hate Adam Dunn. I love the fact that Dunn is an on-base machine and hits 40 home runs like clockwork. I would love for him to be my team's DH. However, I do not like Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
Shortstop Is One Player Deep
In fantasy, the shortstop position has always been extremely shallow. But in recent years, guys like Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, and Jose Reyes has made it so everybody has at least gotten the opportunity to get a top tier shortstop. However, that is not the case in 2010 because there is only top tier shortstop and you're probably not going to be able to get him- Hanley Ramirez.
The problem is every shortstop that's going to be taken after Hanley has his flaws. Sure, by the time you take Ryan Theriot or Christian Guzman (which I did as like my last pick in the draft last year), then you know what you're expecting. But it's the shortstops that are being drafted as starters that are the problems. Sure, all the top 8 or so starters being drafted having great upside, but you're taking on a huge risk with them as well- especially for the early draft position you're going to have to take them at.
So here's a list of the top shortstops you're going to have to take if you want a "top tier" shortstop
2) Troy Tulowitzki (15.97 ADP)
As much as TBO wants to be naked with Tulo and do dirty things to him, and even though I will probably draft him, there's a lot of flaws in drafting Tulo. Although Tulo is young, I think people forget that Tulo only has three years major league experience, and his 2008 season was really bad. Sure, Tulo's the least risky because he's always shown speed, power, and a high batting average. But you do take on a little risk that his 2009 numbers regress closer to his 2008 numbers.
3) Jimmy Rollins (21.81 ADP)
Rollins' fantasy value has decreased tremendously from his "MVP" season a few years back. While he made great strides in the second half of last season from his awful first, he still is nowhere near even being the third best shortstop for next year. His batting average has steadily decreased the past three years, his stolen base numbers took a missive hit from 47 in '08 to 31 in '09 (also his SPD score has steadily declined the past three years), his ISO has taken missive hits (.235 in '07 to .160 in '08 to .173 in '09), and his home runs have taken massive hits (30 HR in '07, 11 in '08, 21 in '09; 10.7 HR/FB% in '07, 7.2 HR/FB% in '08, 8.5% in '09.)
The point is, while Rollins has improved from is dreadful 2008 campaign, he's not the same MVP Jimmy Rollins that you might think he is.
4) Jose Reyes (23.18 ADP)
Guy was a lock for 60+ stolen bases and a high average- until he suffered a leg injury that needed major surgery. As DME has shared with me, it's risky as hell taking a guy, who derives most of his value from steals, that had a injury that directly affects how he steals bases.
5) Derek Jeter (45.37)
Jeter will get the runs you want from him because he bats second in probably the best line up in baseball. And he'll get you about a .320 batting average like clockwork. But you can get runs and average essentially anywhere, you want Jeter to get you the 30+ swipes and the 15+ dingers like he got you last year. The risk you take on with Jeter, first of all, is that Jeter is 35 years old going on 36. There is a huge risk that Jeter gets injured. But that's not even the biggest reason Jeter scares, the biggest reason is that Jeter's numbers ballooned last year from his previous two years. His home run numbers the past three years: 12, 11, 18. His SB numbers from the past three years: 15, 11, 30. You can say Jeter's home run numbers increased because of New Yankee Stadium, but it takes at least three years to truly determine the impact a stadium has on players. Plus, the new park doesn't count for the tremendous jump he took with this stolen bags. When a player's numbers spikes this much with a player as old as Jeter, it worries me that he'll probably regress in 2010.
6) Ben Zobrist (55.55 ADP)
Now if you can truly get Zobrist this late, you probably got him where he should be ranked. But I have a feeling that MockDraftCentral has Zobrist this low because he only has 2B eligibility and he'll probably have 2B, SS, and OF eligibility in your league and thus will be ranked higher. Thus you will have to take him higher than you probably want to. The risk you take with Zobrist, is that, in all likelihood, Zobrist had a career year last year. But you're drafting him like he's going to put up 2009 numbers, when you should be taking him a round later or so because of his dipped, 2010 numbers.
7) Jason Bartlett (104.54)
For where you're going to take Bartlett realistically, you're not taking on as much risk as you are with Jeter or Reyes, but there's some risk nonetheless. It's the risk that Bartlett will not sustain his 2009 value. Before last year, Bartlett has only hit above .286 once (.309 in 2006), never hit above 5 home runs, never stolen above 23 bags, and never hit in over 43 guys before, and never scored above 75 runs (all in '07). Sure, it helps that Bartlett plays for a much better offense in Tampa Bay than he ever did in Minnesota, but I doubt that his stolen bags and home runs stay on pace or exceed his 2009 numbers.
The guys after Bartlett are Alexei Ramirez (108.96 ADP) and Stephen Drew (113.90 ADP) so if you draft those guys as your starters, you already know the downside you're probably going to get from them anyway.
Let me just clarify before I go, I'm not saying that all these shortstops will be bad. Jose Reyes' leg could be completely healed and he could get you 70+ steals. New Yankee Stadium might help Jeter go 15/30 again. Tulo could have another amazing year and his down year could just have been a fluke. But what I am saying is that you're taking on a lot of risk to get that shortstops upside, and that kind of sucks considering how early you're going to have to take these shortstops. Because you want your first seven picks or so to be almost guarantees and you're not going to get that with these SS.
Also, Hanley could get injured on the second game of the season so, you never know.
The problem is every shortstop that's going to be taken after Hanley has his flaws. Sure, by the time you take Ryan Theriot or Christian Guzman (which I did as like my last pick in the draft last year), then you know what you're expecting. But it's the shortstops that are being drafted as starters that are the problems. Sure, all the top 8 or so starters being drafted having great upside, but you're taking on a huge risk with them as well- especially for the early draft position you're going to have to take them at.
So here's a list of the top shortstops you're going to have to take if you want a "top tier" shortstop
2) Troy Tulowitzki (15.97 ADP)
As much as TBO wants to be naked with Tulo and do dirty things to him, and even though I will probably draft him, there's a lot of flaws in drafting Tulo. Although Tulo is young, I think people forget that Tulo only has three years major league experience, and his 2008 season was really bad. Sure, Tulo's the least risky because he's always shown speed, power, and a high batting average. But you do take on a little risk that his 2009 numbers regress closer to his 2008 numbers.
3) Jimmy Rollins (21.81 ADP)
Rollins' fantasy value has decreased tremendously from his "MVP" season a few years back. While he made great strides in the second half of last season from his awful first, he still is nowhere near even being the third best shortstop for next year. His batting average has steadily decreased the past three years, his stolen base numbers took a missive hit from 47 in '08 to 31 in '09 (also his SPD score has steadily declined the past three years), his ISO has taken missive hits (.235 in '07 to .160 in '08 to .173 in '09), and his home runs have taken massive hits (30 HR in '07, 11 in '08, 21 in '09; 10.7 HR/FB% in '07, 7.2 HR/FB% in '08, 8.5% in '09.)
The point is, while Rollins has improved from is dreadful 2008 campaign, he's not the same MVP Jimmy Rollins that you might think he is.
4) Jose Reyes (23.18 ADP)
Guy was a lock for 60+ stolen bases and a high average- until he suffered a leg injury that needed major surgery. As DME has shared with me, it's risky as hell taking a guy, who derives most of his value from steals, that had a injury that directly affects how he steals bases.
5) Derek Jeter (45.37)
Jeter will get the runs you want from him because he bats second in probably the best line up in baseball. And he'll get you about a .320 batting average like clockwork. But you can get runs and average essentially anywhere, you want Jeter to get you the 30+ swipes and the 15+ dingers like he got you last year. The risk you take on with Jeter, first of all, is that Jeter is 35 years old going on 36. There is a huge risk that Jeter gets injured. But that's not even the biggest reason Jeter scares, the biggest reason is that Jeter's numbers ballooned last year from his previous two years. His home run numbers the past three years: 12, 11, 18. His SB numbers from the past three years: 15, 11, 30. You can say Jeter's home run numbers increased because of New Yankee Stadium, but it takes at least three years to truly determine the impact a stadium has on players. Plus, the new park doesn't count for the tremendous jump he took with this stolen bags. When a player's numbers spikes this much with a player as old as Jeter, it worries me that he'll probably regress in 2010.
6) Ben Zobrist (55.55 ADP)
Now if you can truly get Zobrist this late, you probably got him where he should be ranked. But I have a feeling that MockDraftCentral has Zobrist this low because he only has 2B eligibility and he'll probably have 2B, SS, and OF eligibility in your league and thus will be ranked higher. Thus you will have to take him higher than you probably want to. The risk you take with Zobrist, is that, in all likelihood, Zobrist had a career year last year. But you're drafting him like he's going to put up 2009 numbers, when you should be taking him a round later or so because of his dipped, 2010 numbers.
7) Jason Bartlett (104.54)
For where you're going to take Bartlett realistically, you're not taking on as much risk as you are with Jeter or Reyes, but there's some risk nonetheless. It's the risk that Bartlett will not sustain his 2009 value. Before last year, Bartlett has only hit above .286 once (.309 in 2006), never hit above 5 home runs, never stolen above 23 bags, and never hit in over 43 guys before, and never scored above 75 runs (all in '07). Sure, it helps that Bartlett plays for a much better offense in Tampa Bay than he ever did in Minnesota, but I doubt that his stolen bags and home runs stay on pace or exceed his 2009 numbers.
The guys after Bartlett are Alexei Ramirez (108.96 ADP) and Stephen Drew (113.90 ADP) so if you draft those guys as your starters, you already know the downside you're probably going to get from them anyway.
Let me just clarify before I go, I'm not saying that all these shortstops will be bad. Jose Reyes' leg could be completely healed and he could get you 70+ steals. New Yankee Stadium might help Jeter go 15/30 again. Tulo could have another amazing year and his down year could just have been a fluke. But what I am saying is that you're taking on a lot of risk to get that shortstops upside, and that kind of sucks considering how early you're going to have to take these shortstops. Because you want your first seven picks or so to be almost guarantees and you're not going to get that with these SS.
Also, Hanley could get injured on the second game of the season so, you never know.
Sexy Rexy's Drafting Tips: Baseball Edition
Because my football drafting tips helped you out so much, I'm here to help you get prepared for the 2010 baseball season. Sure, some of these tips might be overlaps from my football post, but hey, maybe there's a constant that you should keep in mind.
Pre-Draft:
1) DO RESEARCH! This may seem obvious, but you'd be surprised on how little this is actually done. A lot of people will draft by name value alone and they haven't really seen how exactly players will turn out. I've already seen some of Yahoo!'s projections and they are just awful, especially for pitchers. Those sites just give you a guide but base where you draft a player upon the numbers YOU think he will perform, not Yahoo! Last year DME knew how good a guy like Javier Vazquez would be based upon his own research. So why draft a pitcher Yahoo! tells you will be a top five pitcher when you can actually get a top five pitcher in the later rounds? Plus, doing your own research will help you get better value picks
2) Use sabermetrics. You can easily win your league without doing so, but using stats like FIP, xFIP, BABIP, and xBABIP sure makes it a hell of a lot easier and gives you an extra advantage.
3) Mock draft. Now that you know which players who like or dislike, it's extremely helpful to see where other people are evaluating other players. This will not only make you more comfortable when you do finally sit down and draft, but it would also allow you to time to plan a coherent drafting strategy so you can take all the player YOU want to.
4) Look at league scoring. A guy like Carlos Pens or Adam Dunn are a helluva lot more valuable in a league that doesn't use batting average and instead uses a stat like OPS or OBP. I created a league last year that didn't use BA and instead used OBP and SLG, but people treated the draft like it was normal 5x5 scoring. Most leagues I've seen don't use the traditional 5x5 stats (BA, HR, SB, R, RBI, W, SV, K, WHIP, and ERA) and whatever stats your league uses should affect which players to target.
Actual Drafting Strategy:
5) 3B, 1B, SP, RP are very deep. If you have a top pick, I'm not saying don't draft Albert Pujols or A-Rod just because the position is deep, but keep that in mind. You don't necessarily need to draft Evan Longoria when you can get say Gordan Beckham six rounds later or so (Admittedly this isn't the best analogy because Longoria WILL be better than Beckham next year and it won't be close, but you get my point, right?).
6) SS and 2B are very shallow. I wouldn't be against you reaching to get a guy like Ian Kinsler or Derek Jeter because once the top tiered guys go off the board, you're pretty much SOL. However, if that does happen to you and you do miss out on a top tiered SS or SB, wait until the very end of your draft to get that position because you'll end up hurting yourself getting the guy at the top of the second tier
7) C are like TEs. In football, there are really only four top TE that are worth anything and every other TE is pretty much the same player. The same is true for catchers in baseball. I personally think (and this is true in both football and baseball) that you should always try to get the stud for your team and if that means reaching, then so be it. But like with short stops and second basemen, if you don't get a stud, WAIT!
8) It's OK to neglect an entire category. NOTE: Only do this for head-to-head leagues, for Roto this is an awful awful awful awful awful idea and you are guaranteed not to win your league if you do this in Roto. However, if you design your team to be dominant in 9 categories, then who cares if you don't win the 10th? I was in a league last year where a guy only got 3 saves all year, didn't draft a closer, and won the league. However, in Roto, you can focus a little less on a category like SV or SB, but make sure you're not too low in that category because that will mess with your overall numbers.
9) Use your bench for pitching. In leagues where you can only update your team once a week, then it doesn't matter what your bench looks like. But if you can update your team daily, then you are maximizing your entire team efficiently by using your bench on pitching. Pitchers will only pitch once every five games, whereas a batter will most likely play every single game. This means that you will be able to use and start essentially all of your pitchers you have, but not necessarily be able to start all of your hitters. This is called streaming your pitchers.
Many people frown upon this because they think it's just a cheap way for an owner to accrue more Ks and W's than their opponent- and it is to a degree. But you need to do what's best for YOUR team and streaming pitchers will help YOU out. Some leagues have an innings limit so be careful about that because streaming pitchers could screw you over in the long run. Also, make sure your bench is full of GOOD pitchers. Don't just have pitchers on your bench just because.
10) Don't be afraid to draft a closer's back up over a closer. Why draft Brad Lidge now when you can get Ryan Madson a few rounds later? When Joe Blow was on the Indians a few years back, people were drafting him just because "he was the starter". You're better off drafting the back up. However, don't go TOO overboard with this. I've been mock drafting where Thorton gets drafting with guys like Brian Wilson and Bobby Jenks doesn't get drafting at all. Jenks is still the closers guys and trust me, his job is more secure than you might think. At least draft Thorton AND Jenks.
11) It's OK to "reach". I hate that phrase "reaching" to begin with. First, reaching is mainly based upon the ranking your website gives and those rankings are garbage. Second, your goal is to build the best team and if by doing so you would take a player that you like that maybe other people wouldn't have taken that round, to hell what other people think. Those pre-season projections are probably wrong to begin with and you've already done your homework for yourself.
12) Be willing to change your drafting strategy. Not only should you have back up target players in case the players you were targeting get taken, but be willing to adjust based on what everyone in the league is drafting
Post Draft Day
13) Always look to get better. As in all fantasy leagues, it never hurts to make trades or pick guys in FA to add to your team. And always think of players by production numbers, not by name value. Name value can help you make trades but don't be afraid to lose a "big name player" you have if they're not or will not perform
14) There's a fine line when making trades.You need to balance between trying to help your team versus giving away awesomeness and getting crap in return. This seems obvious, but trust me, it's not. At least for me, many a-times I'll make a trade because I think my team is getting better overall and it ends up biting me in the ass. (And by many a-times, I mean like all the time). Hey, if you're like DME and can make awesome trades, then go for it. But based upon GOI's football season, Cubsfan, TBO, and myself will tell you we all bad some really dumb trades. Hindsight is always 20/20 sure, but be weary and know your skill set when making trades. Don't be afraid to make a trade but don't be so gung-ho about it either.
15) Be patient. I should practice what I preach, but I don't here. I know if I'm patient my team absolutely would have been a lot better and those owners who drafted and dropped Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee last year are kicking themselves for not being patient. You obviously shouldn't be too patient because the player you have might just suck and never get better, but if you're confident with how you drafted, then just be patient.
16) Always have fun. I know this is an overused cliche, but realize it's just fantasy baseball and nothing more. You can care how your team does, but just realize, this for what it is and have fun. Plus, your a loser anyway because you're playing fantasy sports.
Pre-Draft:
1) DO RESEARCH! This may seem obvious, but you'd be surprised on how little this is actually done. A lot of people will draft by name value alone and they haven't really seen how exactly players will turn out. I've already seen some of Yahoo!'s projections and they are just awful, especially for pitchers. Those sites just give you a guide but base where you draft a player upon the numbers YOU think he will perform, not Yahoo! Last year DME knew how good a guy like Javier Vazquez would be based upon his own research. So why draft a pitcher Yahoo! tells you will be a top five pitcher when you can actually get a top five pitcher in the later rounds? Plus, doing your own research will help you get better value picks
2) Use sabermetrics. You can easily win your league without doing so, but using stats like FIP, xFIP, BABIP, and xBABIP sure makes it a hell of a lot easier and gives you an extra advantage.
3) Mock draft. Now that you know which players who like or dislike, it's extremely helpful to see where other people are evaluating other players. This will not only make you more comfortable when you do finally sit down and draft, but it would also allow you to time to plan a coherent drafting strategy so you can take all the player YOU want to.
4) Look at league scoring. A guy like Carlos Pens or Adam Dunn are a helluva lot more valuable in a league that doesn't use batting average and instead uses a stat like OPS or OBP. I created a league last year that didn't use BA and instead used OBP and SLG, but people treated the draft like it was normal 5x5 scoring. Most leagues I've seen don't use the traditional 5x5 stats (BA, HR, SB, R, RBI, W, SV, K, WHIP, and ERA) and whatever stats your league uses should affect which players to target.
Actual Drafting Strategy:
5) 3B, 1B, SP, RP are very deep. If you have a top pick, I'm not saying don't draft Albert Pujols or A-Rod just because the position is deep, but keep that in mind. You don't necessarily need to draft Evan Longoria when you can get say Gordan Beckham six rounds later or so (Admittedly this isn't the best analogy because Longoria WILL be better than Beckham next year and it won't be close, but you get my point, right?).
6) SS and 2B are very shallow. I wouldn't be against you reaching to get a guy like Ian Kinsler or Derek Jeter because once the top tiered guys go off the board, you're pretty much SOL. However, if that does happen to you and you do miss out on a top tiered SS or SB, wait until the very end of your draft to get that position because you'll end up hurting yourself getting the guy at the top of the second tier
7) C are like TEs. In football, there are really only four top TE that are worth anything and every other TE is pretty much the same player. The same is true for catchers in baseball. I personally think (and this is true in both football and baseball) that you should always try to get the stud for your team and if that means reaching, then so be it. But like with short stops and second basemen, if you don't get a stud, WAIT!
8) It's OK to neglect an entire category. NOTE: Only do this for head-to-head leagues, for Roto this is an awful awful awful awful awful idea and you are guaranteed not to win your league if you do this in Roto. However, if you design your team to be dominant in 9 categories, then who cares if you don't win the 10th? I was in a league last year where a guy only got 3 saves all year, didn't draft a closer, and won the league. However, in Roto, you can focus a little less on a category like SV or SB, but make sure you're not too low in that category because that will mess with your overall numbers.
9) Use your bench for pitching. In leagues where you can only update your team once a week, then it doesn't matter what your bench looks like. But if you can update your team daily, then you are maximizing your entire team efficiently by using your bench on pitching. Pitchers will only pitch once every five games, whereas a batter will most likely play every single game. This means that you will be able to use and start essentially all of your pitchers you have, but not necessarily be able to start all of your hitters. This is called streaming your pitchers.
Many people frown upon this because they think it's just a cheap way for an owner to accrue more Ks and W's than their opponent- and it is to a degree. But you need to do what's best for YOUR team and streaming pitchers will help YOU out. Some leagues have an innings limit so be careful about that because streaming pitchers could screw you over in the long run. Also, make sure your bench is full of GOOD pitchers. Don't just have pitchers on your bench just because.
10) Don't be afraid to draft a closer's back up over a closer. Why draft Brad Lidge now when you can get Ryan Madson a few rounds later? When Joe Blow was on the Indians a few years back, people were drafting him just because "he was the starter". You're better off drafting the back up. However, don't go TOO overboard with this. I've been mock drafting where Thorton gets drafting with guys like Brian Wilson and Bobby Jenks doesn't get drafting at all. Jenks is still the closers guys and trust me, his job is more secure than you might think. At least draft Thorton AND Jenks.
11) It's OK to "reach". I hate that phrase "reaching" to begin with. First, reaching is mainly based upon the ranking your website gives and those rankings are garbage. Second, your goal is to build the best team and if by doing so you would take a player that you like that maybe other people wouldn't have taken that round, to hell what other people think. Those pre-season projections are probably wrong to begin with and you've already done your homework for yourself.
12) Be willing to change your drafting strategy. Not only should you have back up target players in case the players you were targeting get taken, but be willing to adjust based on what everyone in the league is drafting
Post Draft Day
13) Always look to get better. As in all fantasy leagues, it never hurts to make trades or pick guys in FA to add to your team. And always think of players by production numbers, not by name value. Name value can help you make trades but don't be afraid to lose a "big name player" you have if they're not or will not perform
14) There's a fine line when making trades.You need to balance between trying to help your team versus giving away awesomeness and getting crap in return. This seems obvious, but trust me, it's not. At least for me, many a-times I'll make a trade because I think my team is getting better overall and it ends up biting me in the ass. (And by many a-times, I mean like all the time). Hey, if you're like DME and can make awesome trades, then go for it. But based upon GOI's football season, Cubsfan, TBO, and myself will tell you we all bad some really dumb trades. Hindsight is always 20/20 sure, but be weary and know your skill set when making trades. Don't be afraid to make a trade but don't be so gung-ho about it either.
15) Be patient. I should practice what I preach, but I don't here. I know if I'm patient my team absolutely would have been a lot better and those owners who drafted and dropped Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee last year are kicking themselves for not being patient. You obviously shouldn't be too patient because the player you have might just suck and never get better, but if you're confident with how you drafted, then just be patient.
16) Always have fun. I know this is an overused cliche, but realize it's just fantasy baseball and nothing more. You can care how your team does, but just realize, this for what it is and have fun. Plus, your a loser anyway because you're playing fantasy sports.
