Showing posts with label Batting Average. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Batting Average. Show all posts
Why I Hate Adam Dunn: An Analysis Into Batting Average and Fantasy Baseball
I hate Adam Dunn because he's slow, he can't hit the ball, he's awful at defense, and he doesn't care about baseball. Oh wait, that's why baseball GM's hate Adam Dunn. I love the fact that Dunn is an on-base machine and hits 40 home runs like clockwork. I would love for him to be my team's DH. However, I do not like Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
