Considering this is a "Sexy Rexy" post and I wrote this in a hurry, I guarantee you there will be at least one spelling or grammatical mistake. My bad. But did you really expect anything less?
- Sox sign Adam Dunn to a four year $56 million dollar deal. I love it. I understand he's AWFUL at any defensive position and should play DH and not 1B (like he will) but I don't care. He can stop hitting 38 HR like clockwork and start hitting 40+ in Comiskey. I don't care about the money as well because I'll still pay to see this team about 3-4 times a year no matter what and if ticket sales do go up, it'll be minimal to me. Plus, the White Sox are not the Oakland A's. They do not need to be conservative with their money. Plus, if this is actually a good deal (DME tell me if this is or not!) then it's just icing on the cake.
- Sox will probably re-sign Paul Konerko. Last year was probably a career season past 2005 for him but I love him. There are certain players that when you wear their jerseys to the games, you will NEVER get a funny look. Konerko is one of those jerseys. If you go to a Bears game and you see a Rex Grossman jersey you think to yourself, "Get a new fucking jersey dude. This isn't 2006". But Konerko is like wearing a, hmm, I don't want to say Walter Peyton because Konerko was never THAT good, maybe a Fridge jersey? Anyways, you get the point. Paul Konerko will never be that type of "Rex Grossman jersey" player. I would love to see him retire as a White Sock from an emotional aspect and he'll produce WAY better than fucking Mark Kotsay or whoever was in the "rotating DH" spot last year
- Sox give Alexei Ramirez a raise. Great. I love A-Ram, I said he will develop into a good defensive player and he proved me wrong- he developed into a GREAT defensive player and fucktard Derek Jeter stole a Gold Glove from him last year. Plus Alexei's got some great pop. Obviously I'd love to see him get ONE walk in his career but I still want him on my team.
- Sox non-tender Bobby Jenks. Fuck him. I love Bobby, he's my all time personal favorite White Sox but fuck him. He's lost velocity on his fastball which has decreased his effectiveness. Plus with guys like Matt Thorton, Chris Sale, and Sergio Santos ready to step up in this bullpen, the Sox don't need Jenks. Plus, I love Kenny's ability to find great bullpen arms like Mike MacDougal.
- I own three White Sox shirts: Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Bobby Jenks. I wear these shirts to the gym and I get the "What the fuck dude, this isn't 2006" look. Whatevs. At least I can wear my Konerko jersey with pride. Unlike those idiots who bought a Ken Griffey Jr. shirt/uniform.
Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts
Why I Hate Adam Dunn: An Analysis Into Batting Average and Fantasy Baseball
I hate Adam Dunn because he's slow, he can't hit the ball, he's awful at defense, and he doesn't care about baseball. Oh wait, that's why baseball GM's hate Adam Dunn. I love the fact that Dunn is an on-base machine and hits 40 home runs like clockwork. I would love for him to be my team's DH. However, I do not like Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
Dunn hits a decent offense, surrounded by Z-Pack and Nyjger Morgan. And when you include Pudge, Christain Guzman, Josh Willingham, and Elijah Dukes, that line up is not half bad. Sure it's no New York Yankees line up, but it's certainly no Kansas City Royal line up. Which means Dunn can easily get 80+ runs, 100+ RBI's to go along with his 40 home runs. So why do I hate Dunn? It's because of that career .249 average. And don't let his .267 batting average last year fool you. That's the outlier, not the norm. In fact, Dunn had a career high in BABIP last year (.324).
But it's not just Dunn I'm very low on. I purposefully avoided others like Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce, and even Ian Kinsler. The reason I did this was not only was I burned by low average guys last year, but because you can not make up average on the waiver wire.
Have you ever teachers, or educators, or parents tell you that you had to get good grades during your first few semesters of school? Ever wondered why? Well the answer is easy- it's because the grades you post earlier in your educational career tend to have more of an impact on your GPA than the grades you earn towards the end (that and I'm sure those people are only looking out for your well-being. But let's ignore that right now). If you got straight C's your first year in school, it's clearly within the realm of possibility to raise your GPA. But it's much harder to do so. The same concept holds true for batting average (for ERA and WHIP too for that matter). And it's this reason that you can not find batting average on the waiver wire to help out your team.
You can always find HRs, RBIs, and SB on the waiver wire. And when you pick up players for that sole purpose, you can most certainly accrue a handful of these counting stats to lift you up. But if you see you have a poor average, finding guys with high averages will not have the same effect as finding a guy like say a Luke Scott to get you a few more HRs. Now the earlier you realize you need batting average help, the easier it will be for you to fix your team. But as your batters accrue more and more at-bats and that sample size gets bigger, the harder it will be for you to fill your batting average void.
Now this strategy only holds water for roto leagues. If you're in a head-to-head league, feel free to punt a category like batting average. Hell, punt WHIP and ERA too if you so choose. But in roto- you can not punt ANY category and expect to do well.
So when I'm drafting and I see a guy like Adam Dunn available- I'm going to pass. I can get home runs, RBIs, and runs elsewhere in the draft. Hell, I could easily get those categories in free agency. But I can't get batting average. And why would I want to make it harder for myself? I know Dunn will hurt my batting average and put myself in a bigger hole to climb out of. I'm essentially guaranteeing myself that I'm going to get straight C's my first year in school. And that's never fun.
NOTE: Sure, if you're smart and drafted a whole bunch of high average guys from the getgo, you can take the hit of ONE player having an Adam Dunn-like BA. But again, it might be more hassle than it's worth.
The Adam Dunn All-Stars
Adam Dunn is a unique baseball player. He combines Cecil Fielder's power, Rickey Henderson's plate discipline, Rob Deer's contact rates, with Chuck Knoblauch's defense. DME and I set forth to put together the so aptly named Adam Dunn All-Stars of current MLBers who meet this strict criteria:
C: Chris Iannetta
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Alex Rodriguez
3B: Mark Reynolds
RF: Jack Cust
CF: Jason Bay
LF: Adam Dunn*
DH: Jim Thome
*Team Captain
Is Adam Dunn Underrated?
Is Adam Dunn underrated? Yes, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot (almost 1/3 of the time), plays poor defense, makes minimal contact with baseballs (his career contact rate is 71.5%; the MLB average was 80.5% last season) and has a career batting average just under .250. Still, Adam Dunn has a career OPS above .900. He's walked 913 times in 5417 career PAs (16.9% walk rate, .383 career OBP). Dunn's averaged 39.3 home runs per season (and hit exactly 40 like clockwork from 2005-2008). His .276 ISO over the past 3 seasons is the sixth best mark in the majors, while his 118 HRs over that span are two more than Pujols' 116 and his 339 BB's are second to no one.
And yet, Dunn struggled to find work last offseason when he became a free agent (he didn't officially sign with the Nationals until February 12). This should have come as no surprise to even the most casual Adam Dunn follower. Dusty Baker never appreciated his skill set and J.P. think he's a useless slacker. Heck, even Jason Varitek unintentionally took a shot at Big Donkey.
But it is not as though nobody except his mother likes him. Sabermetric-minded fellows, ranging from the casual and hilarious to the serious and boring (just kidding, I absolutely love THT) have defended Dunn from every jab taken at him. Even we at Game Of Inches have defended the Big Donkey in the past.
But is Adam Dunn underrated?
True, Adam Dunn is a great offensive player (career .384 wOBA), but he's also an equally atrocious fielder, a fact this is often glossed over (as it was in the introductory paragraph to this post). Winning baseball games, if boiled down to the most simplistic mathematical formula, is a differential between Runs Created and Runs Allowed. A run gained with a bat is equally as valuable as the run prevented with the glove.
It is with this maxim in mind that I point out the follow fact which probably eludes the casual Dunn fan: Adam Dunn has been a sub-3 WAR player since 2005. He's been a sub-2 WAR player in all of those seasons except 2007. Over the past two years, Dunn has cumulatively worth under 2.5 WAR. By contrast, B.J. Upton, Andy LaRoche, Miguel Tejada and even Paul Konerko were more valuable in 2009 than Dunn has been cumulatively over the past two seasons. Last season, despite creating 35.5 runs more than the average player with his bat, Dunn was a meager +1.2 WAR player thanks to the 36.3 runs his glove cost the Nationals. Omar Vizquel, who only played 62 games last year, was worth +1.2 WAR.
Yeah, Adam Dunn is that bad at fielding.
Fangraphs values Dunn's +1.2 WAR performances in 2008 and 2009 at just over $5 million in terms of free agency dollars. And yet, the world of baseball was shocked when Dunn was "only" able to sign a contract for 2-years, $20 million. Dunn was paid $8 million last season and is set to earn $12 million this season. Even if Dunn's fielding, which has been on the decline since 2004, is half as bad as it was this season, he will be, assuming that his offensive production remains steady, a +3ish WAR player. In terms of free agency dollars, a 3.0 WAR season would be worth approximately $13.5 million next season. If this is the case, then Dunn would have been "overpaid" by $1 million by the Nationals over the life of his contract -- not bad, essentially market value.
So I beckon the same question again: is Adam Dunn really underrated? Or is he just so underrated that he has become overrated (or at least adequately rated)? What is clear is that Adam Dunn belongs in the AL, playing DH (where players get a -17.5 positional adjustment to their batting line, half of Dunn's negative fielding impact).
__________________________
Valuable Post Script:
As a RF, Dunn's cumulative batting and fielding production gets a -7.5 positional adjustment (UZR measures all defense equally; Fangraphs accounts for differences in fielding difficulty between positions in WAR calculations thru positional adjustments). As a DH, Dunn would get a flat -17.5 positional adjustment and a zero fielding rating. In other words, as a DH, Dunn just get -17.5 runs subtracted from his batting line. As a RF (or LF, for that matter), Dunn gets -7.5 subtracted from his batting line in addition to his lackluster fielding. Thus Dunn, like anyone with a consistent -10 or worse fielding glove at RF/LF, belongs in a DH role.
I'm placing a "Quintessential Sabermetrics Argument" tag on this post because it underlines the unheralded importance of fielding.
And yet, Dunn struggled to find work last offseason when he became a free agent (he didn't officially sign with the Nationals until February 12). This should have come as no surprise to even the most casual Adam Dunn follower. Dusty Baker never appreciated his skill set and J.P. think he's a useless slacker. Heck, even Jason Varitek unintentionally took a shot at Big Donkey.
But it is not as though nobody except his mother likes him. Sabermetric-minded fellows, ranging from the casual and hilarious to the serious and boring (just kidding, I absolutely love THT) have defended Dunn from every jab taken at him. Even we at Game Of Inches have defended the Big Donkey in the past.
But is Adam Dunn underrated?
True, Adam Dunn is a great offensive player (career .384 wOBA), but he's also an equally atrocious fielder, a fact this is often glossed over (as it was in the introductory paragraph to this post). Winning baseball games, if boiled down to the most simplistic mathematical formula, is a differential between Runs Created and Runs Allowed. A run gained with a bat is equally as valuable as the run prevented with the glove.
It is with this maxim in mind that I point out the follow fact which probably eludes the casual Dunn fan: Adam Dunn has been a sub-3 WAR player since 2005. He's been a sub-2 WAR player in all of those seasons except 2007. Over the past two years, Dunn has cumulatively worth under 2.5 WAR. By contrast, B.J. Upton, Andy LaRoche, Miguel Tejada and even Paul Konerko were more valuable in 2009 than Dunn has been cumulatively over the past two seasons. Last season, despite creating 35.5 runs more than the average player with his bat, Dunn was a meager +1.2 WAR player thanks to the 36.3 runs his glove cost the Nationals. Omar Vizquel, who only played 62 games last year, was worth +1.2 WAR.
Yeah, Adam Dunn is that bad at fielding.
Fangraphs values Dunn's +1.2 WAR performances in 2008 and 2009 at just over $5 million in terms of free agency dollars. And yet, the world of baseball was shocked when Dunn was "only" able to sign a contract for 2-years, $20 million. Dunn was paid $8 million last season and is set to earn $12 million this season. Even if Dunn's fielding, which has been on the decline since 2004, is half as bad as it was this season, he will be, assuming that his offensive production remains steady, a +3ish WAR player. In terms of free agency dollars, a 3.0 WAR season would be worth approximately $13.5 million next season. If this is the case, then Dunn would have been "overpaid" by $1 million by the Nationals over the life of his contract -- not bad, essentially market value.
So I beckon the same question again: is Adam Dunn really underrated? Or is he just so underrated that he has become overrated (or at least adequately rated)? What is clear is that Adam Dunn belongs in the AL, playing DH (where players get a -17.5 positional adjustment to their batting line, half of Dunn's negative fielding impact).
__________________________
Valuable Post Script:
As a RF, Dunn's cumulative batting and fielding production gets a -7.5 positional adjustment (UZR measures all defense equally; Fangraphs accounts for differences in fielding difficulty between positions in WAR calculations thru positional adjustments). As a DH, Dunn would get a flat -17.5 positional adjustment and a zero fielding rating. In other words, as a DH, Dunn just get -17.5 runs subtracted from his batting line. As a RF (or LF, for that matter), Dunn gets -7.5 subtracted from his batting line in addition to his lackluster fielding. Thus Dunn, like anyone with a consistent -10 or worse fielding glove at RF/LF, belongs in a DH role.
I'm placing a "Quintessential Sabermetrics Argument" tag on this post because it underlines the unheralded importance of fielding.
Why Is Jonny Gomes Unemployed?
As, I've previously asserted, Jonny Gomes is sort of an Adam Dunn-lite. The only real difference between the two is the walk rate (Gomes is a career 9.9% walker, while Dunn's career walk rate is a majestic 16.9%; league average is under 9%). Of course, when you have a player who, like Dunn, makes contact with only 70% of his offerings (league average is around 80%) and strikes out a ton (32.2% career strike out rate), you probably want them to get on base by walking (or getting plunked) as much as possible because they probably aren't going to hit their way on (much to Dusty Baker's chagrin). Still, that hasn't kept Gomes from posting a league average .330 OBP through out his career. But we all know you don't hire Gomes for his walking abilities or his fielding talents. It's that sexy .230 career ISO that attracts, or should attract, major league teams. You know who also has a .230 career ISO? Chase Utley. You know who doesn't? Joe Mauer.
Now I'm not here to advocate that Jonny Gomes is going to light the world on fire for any team he plays for. That .274 ISO last season is probably going to come down and even though his K% has improved each of the last few seasons, Gomes is still going to strike out around 30% of the time and force teams to stomach a .250 BA and .330 OBP somewhere in the lineup. He's still going to hit a lot of extra base hits, however, and it's not like he's got the feet or body of a Molina brother. It beckons the question of what can we expect from Gomes in 2010?
Last season, Gomes hit .267/.338/.541 (.879 OPS) with 20 HRs and a .313 BABIP in half of a season of game play. According to THT's xBABIP calculator, Gomes' luck neutral BABIP (xBABIP) was a somewhat comparable .306. As a result, Gomes' xHit barely takes a hit, falling from 75 to 74. Even if we assume that lost hit was a home run, Gomes would have hit .263/.334/.527 (.861 OPS) in a luck-neutral environment in 2009.
So what does that say for 2010? It says that Gomes .373 wOBA was not entirely unreasonable and that even with a slight decline in power, a .350 wOBA is entirely plausible for Gomes. Gomes's fielding inabilities will likely counterbalance his offensive contributions, but when you account for other adjustments like positional (-7.5 runs) and replacement (+20 runs), you are left with a +1 or so WAR player. That would make Gomes a $3.5 to 4 million dollar player in terms of 2010 free agency dollars. CHONE seems to agree with me, claiming that Gomes is a +2 run bat and -6 run glove over 150 games. That's nothing special, but Gomes won't cost you much and it's an investment worth taking a risk on given Gomes' clear power upside.
Now I'm not here to advocate that Jonny Gomes is going to light the world on fire for any team he plays for. That .274 ISO last season is probably going to come down and even though his K% has improved each of the last few seasons, Gomes is still going to strike out around 30% of the time and force teams to stomach a .250 BA and .330 OBP somewhere in the lineup. He's still going to hit a lot of extra base hits, however, and it's not like he's got the feet or body of a Molina brother. It beckons the question of what can we expect from Gomes in 2010?
Last season, Gomes hit .267/.338/.541 (.879 OPS) with 20 HRs and a .313 BABIP in half of a season of game play. According to THT's xBABIP calculator, Gomes' luck neutral BABIP (xBABIP) was a somewhat comparable .306. As a result, Gomes' xHit barely takes a hit, falling from 75 to 74. Even if we assume that lost hit was a home run, Gomes would have hit .263/.334/.527 (.861 OPS) in a luck-neutral environment in 2009.
So what does that say for 2010? It says that Gomes .373 wOBA was not entirely unreasonable and that even with a slight decline in power, a .350 wOBA is entirely plausible for Gomes. Gomes's fielding inabilities will likely counterbalance his offensive contributions, but when you account for other adjustments like positional (-7.5 runs) and replacement (+20 runs), you are left with a +1 or so WAR player. That would make Gomes a $3.5 to 4 million dollar player in terms of 2010 free agency dollars. CHONE seems to agree with me, claiming that Gomes is a +2 run bat and -6 run glove over 150 games. That's nothing special, but Gomes won't cost you much and it's an investment worth taking a risk on given Gomes' clear power upside.
Is Jonny Gomes Adam Dunn Lite?
[A NOTE FROM DME: Dear readers, I have to apologize. While creating a new post about Jonny Gomes earlier today, I inadvertently deleted the first two paragraphs of this post and published the changes. As a result, the introduction and most of the funny bits from this post are missing. I deeply apologize for the incoherent inconvenience that may result. What follows are the reminants of what I did not delete and the meat of the assertion that Jonny Gomes is similar to Adam Dunn in more ways than one...enjoy!]
...Dusty Baker hates clogging up the bases with walks.
Out goes Adam Dunn, in comes Jonny Gomes. While both strike out at comparable rates (Dunn strikes out 32.5% of the time, Gomes does it 30.9% of the time) and have prodigious power (Dunn has a .275 ISO, Gomes has a .272 ISO), Gomes walks almost exactly half as much as Adam Dunn (8.9% versus Dunn's monstrous 17.3% walk rate). Even though Adam Dunn doesn't exactly miss Cincinatti, I am fairly certain stat-head Reds fans who live in their mother's basements miss his robotic annual production of 100 BBs and 40 HRs plenty...even if he never tried very hard.
But let's not be too hard on Gomes here. A marginally better than league average walk rate is nothing to sneer at when paired with legitimate power (.230 career ISO) and defense skills that are only half as crappy as his predecessor. In fact, in less than half as many PA's as Adam Dunn this season, Jonny Gomes has been, when you combine and compare offensive and defensive production, exactly half as valuable as Adam Dunn this season. Extrapolated, that insinuates that two have the same production rate per game for their respective teams. Such is true for 2009, but is this a legitimate expectation for 2010 and going forward?
Jonny Gomes has no doubt been a disappointment since his breakout 2005 campaign. In the following season, his BA plummeted (as should be expected from a person who strikes out 1/3 of the time) from .282 to .216. Bolstered by an 11 HR April, Gomes' season ISO remained quite high for 2006, but declined from .253 to .216 (league average is around .155). Gomes "regression" was so drastic that he was given a largely limited role in the majors (and banished mostly to the minors) from mid-2006 through last the end of last season, when he was non-tendered by the Rays. The Reds gaves Gomes a minor league contract with a chance to prove he still had something less to contribute and he surely provided them with a lot of bang for their buck (.264/.339/.540, with 20 HR and 49 RBI over 298 PA).
So what is with the roller coaster ride that is Gomes? The answer is largely attributable to two factors. The first is what we would traditionally call "a giant hole in his swing" (0.36 BB/K, 70.7% career contact rate against an 80.5% league average). The second is an inability to hit right handed pitching (.225/.312/.448 line vs RHP, .271/.368/.513 line vs LHP, a sharp .121 point difference in OPS).
These two factors have led to violent oscillations in Gomes' BABIP by season. Here is Gomes BABIP since (and including) 2005: .360, .253, .332, .200, .307. His career BABIP is .296. Such inconsistency is expected from a guy who strikes out three times as much as he walks because it makes the player more prone to extended slumps and more exposed to BA fluxations in the red (logically, if a player Ks a lot and has a poor BABIP over a period of time, the BA is going to fall from ugly, but acceptable to sub-terrible >> check out Dan Uggla's numbers from the first half of this season). However, Jonny Gomes, despite all of the inconsistencies and headaches has made large improvements in his game each of the past four seasons that make the likelihood that he sustains his steps forward on the season more Russell Branyan like and less Corey Patterson like.
Since his full time debut in 2005, Jonny Gomes has cut down the major league strikeout rate a couple percentage points, while settling in at a walk rate within the 9% range each of the past three seasons. After taking some steps back with a K% of 36.2% in 2006, Gomes took a big step forward in 2008 and again in 2009, reducing the K rate to the 30-31% zone. These gains weren't noticed much in limited and sporadic action in 2008 because of a .200 BABIP. Guys like Gomes who strikeout a lot (and especially ones who do not have the best control of the strike zone) make terrible terrible back up players because they have no chance to get into any rhythm during the season, which only exacerbates their weaknesses. Gomes steps forward in strikeout rates has largely been attributable to a change in his approach at the plate. Although Gomes is taking about 5% more swings at pitches than he was as a full time player in Tampa, he is also making 5% more contact with those swings than he was before (largely because he is swinging at more pitches inside of the zone and, compared to the last two seasons, swinging less at pitches outside the zone). Gomes has also cut down the frequency with which he takes a hack at the first pitch he sees from a below average 60.2% rate in 2005 to a slightly above league average 58.7% rate in 2009.
Oh yeah, and you know that lefty-righty split? Gomes has a .871 OPS in 174 PAs against righties this season (.894 OPS vs lefties). Gomes' BABIP vs righties is a bit high at .321, but even if that settles down to the .300 range (which it most likely will, going forward), Gomes would be producing a quality .800+ OPS line against RHPs.
All of these signs show that Gomes' steps forward are not simply the byproduct of luck, but rather legitimate improvements in peripherals and approach. The results have been nothing short of gravy for the Reds. Fangraphs values Gomes' limited playing time production at $3.6 million (largely attributable to his +1 wins in offensive production); yet he's only getting paid somewhere between $600K and $800K. Whether or not Gomes continues his steps forward next season remains to be seen. At 29 years old, the ceiling is seemingly limited, but he's already proven that he possesses the necessary power for success and has shown himself increasingly adequate in the other aspects of the game over time (albeit, often hindered by the forces of bad luck). Gomes is under team control for two more years before he is eligible for free agency, so the Reds probably figure to tend Gomes' a contract this off season. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Gomes puts up in a full season playing LF.
What do you think Gomes 2010 looks like if given an opportunity as a full starter again? Will he be continue to be Adam Dunn with less walks for The Reds or will Gomes regress to his post-2005 numbers? Either way, this experiment shouldn't cost the Reds too much next season and they will probably, therefore, take the risk of starting him in LF in 2010 as they attempt to rebuild their tattered franchise.
...Dusty Baker hates clogging up the bases with walks.
Out goes Adam Dunn, in comes Jonny Gomes. While both strike out at comparable rates (Dunn strikes out 32.5% of the time, Gomes does it 30.9% of the time) and have prodigious power (Dunn has a .275 ISO, Gomes has a .272 ISO), Gomes walks almost exactly half as much as Adam Dunn (8.9% versus Dunn's monstrous 17.3% walk rate). Even though Adam Dunn doesn't exactly miss Cincinatti, I am fairly certain stat-head Reds fans who live in their mother's basements miss his robotic annual production of 100 BBs and 40 HRs plenty...even if he never tried very hard.
But let's not be too hard on Gomes here. A marginally better than league average walk rate is nothing to sneer at when paired with legitimate power (.230 career ISO) and defense skills that are only half as crappy as his predecessor. In fact, in less than half as many PA's as Adam Dunn this season, Jonny Gomes has been, when you combine and compare offensive and defensive production, exactly half as valuable as Adam Dunn this season. Extrapolated, that insinuates that two have the same production rate per game for their respective teams. Such is true for 2009, but is this a legitimate expectation for 2010 and going forward?
Jonny Gomes has no doubt been a disappointment since his breakout 2005 campaign. In the following season, his BA plummeted (as should be expected from a person who strikes out 1/3 of the time) from .282 to .216. Bolstered by an 11 HR April, Gomes' season ISO remained quite high for 2006, but declined from .253 to .216 (league average is around .155). Gomes "regression" was so drastic that he was given a largely limited role in the majors (and banished mostly to the minors) from mid-2006 through last the end of last season, when he was non-tendered by the Rays. The Reds gaves Gomes a minor league contract with a chance to prove he still had something less to contribute and he surely provided them with a lot of bang for their buck (.264/.339/.540, with 20 HR and 49 RBI over 298 PA).
So what is with the roller coaster ride that is Gomes? The answer is largely attributable to two factors. The first is what we would traditionally call "a giant hole in his swing" (0.36 BB/K, 70.7% career contact rate against an 80.5% league average). The second is an inability to hit right handed pitching (.225/.312/.448 line vs RHP, .271/.368/.513 line vs LHP, a sharp .121 point difference in OPS).
These two factors have led to violent oscillations in Gomes' BABIP by season. Here is Gomes BABIP since (and including) 2005: .360, .253, .332, .200, .307. His career BABIP is .296. Such inconsistency is expected from a guy who strikes out three times as much as he walks because it makes the player more prone to extended slumps and more exposed to BA fluxations in the red (logically, if a player Ks a lot and has a poor BABIP over a period of time, the BA is going to fall from ugly, but acceptable to sub-terrible >> check out Dan Uggla's numbers from the first half of this season). However, Jonny Gomes, despite all of the inconsistencies and headaches has made large improvements in his game each of the past four seasons that make the likelihood that he sustains his steps forward on the season more Russell Branyan like and less Corey Patterson like.
Since his full time debut in 2005, Jonny Gomes has cut down the major league strikeout rate a couple percentage points, while settling in at a walk rate within the 9% range each of the past three seasons. After taking some steps back with a K% of 36.2% in 2006, Gomes took a big step forward in 2008 and again in 2009, reducing the K rate to the 30-31% zone. These gains weren't noticed much in limited and sporadic action in 2008 because of a .200 BABIP. Guys like Gomes who strikeout a lot (and especially ones who do not have the best control of the strike zone) make terrible terrible back up players because they have no chance to get into any rhythm during the season, which only exacerbates their weaknesses. Gomes steps forward in strikeout rates has largely been attributable to a change in his approach at the plate. Although Gomes is taking about 5% more swings at pitches than he was as a full time player in Tampa, he is also making 5% more contact with those swings than he was before (largely because he is swinging at more pitches inside of the zone and, compared to the last two seasons, swinging less at pitches outside the zone). Gomes has also cut down the frequency with which he takes a hack at the first pitch he sees from a below average 60.2% rate in 2005 to a slightly above league average 58.7% rate in 2009.
Oh yeah, and you know that lefty-righty split? Gomes has a .871 OPS in 174 PAs against righties this season (.894 OPS vs lefties). Gomes' BABIP vs righties is a bit high at .321, but even if that settles down to the .300 range (which it most likely will, going forward), Gomes would be producing a quality .800+ OPS line against RHPs.
All of these signs show that Gomes' steps forward are not simply the byproduct of luck, but rather legitimate improvements in peripherals and approach. The results have been nothing short of gravy for the Reds. Fangraphs values Gomes' limited playing time production at $3.6 million (largely attributable to his +1 wins in offensive production); yet he's only getting paid somewhere between $600K and $800K. Whether or not Gomes continues his steps forward next season remains to be seen. At 29 years old, the ceiling is seemingly limited, but he's already proven that he possesses the necessary power for success and has shown himself increasingly adequate in the other aspects of the game over time (albeit, often hindered by the forces of bad luck). Gomes is under team control for two more years before he is eligible for free agency, so the Reds probably figure to tend Gomes' a contract this off season. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Gomes puts up in a full season playing LF.
What do you think Gomes 2010 looks like if given an opportunity as a full starter again? Will he be continue to be Adam Dunn with less walks for The Reds or will Gomes regress to his post-2005 numbers? Either way, this experiment shouldn't cost the Reds too much next season and they will probably, therefore, take the risk of starting him in LF in 2010 as they attempt to rebuild their tattered franchise.
Garrett Anderson hates baseball, not Adam Dunn
Here at GOI, we have made a big fuss about J.P Ricciardi's comments last year that Adam Dunn hates to play baseball. I cannot agree with this statement solely based on the fact that Adam Dunn walks so much. If he hated baseball, I bet he would swing away at everything and not give a dman about getting on base to help his team win. He has played less than 152 games in a season only once in his career. Dunn was also one of the most excited guys to make the USA WBC team this past March. So it's hard to make the judgment that he hates baseball for things like taking a lot of strike threes and having horrible pitching staffs.
My argument as to why Garret Anderson hates baseball comes from pure stats and personal emotions I have of him while growing up. ESPN just reminded me that Anderson has the lowest career hit by pitch rate of anyone in major league baseball. In tonight's Sunday Night Game, he was hit for the 7th time in his entire career. That's like a slow week for Carlos Quintin and Craig Biggio. In 8845 career plate appearances, he has only been hit 7 times. One can say that it is pure probability and every large sample size will have outliers, but this is more than just random chance. Anderson is notorious for bailing on pitches from lefties and righties. God forbid anyone find a video of him facing a loogy and you would see his ass be halfway in the dugout as the ball is approaching. Anderson is also allergic to walking with a career 4.7% rate. The combination of never taking one for the team through the walk or HBP, makes him a prime candidate for hating baseball as opposed to the Adam Dunns of the world.
He did have a 10 RBI day once so maybe he doesnt hate baseball that much
My argument as to why Garret Anderson hates baseball comes from pure stats and personal emotions I have of him while growing up. ESPN just reminded me that Anderson has the lowest career hit by pitch rate of anyone in major league baseball. In tonight's Sunday Night Game, he was hit for the 7th time in his entire career. That's like a slow week for Carlos Quintin and Craig Biggio. In 8845 career plate appearances, he has only been hit 7 times. One can say that it is pure probability and every large sample size will have outliers, but this is more than just random chance. Anderson is notorious for bailing on pitches from lefties and righties. God forbid anyone find a video of him facing a loogy and you would see his ass be halfway in the dugout as the ball is approaching. Anderson is also allergic to walking with a career 4.7% rate. The combination of never taking one for the team through the walk or HBP, makes him a prime candidate for hating baseball as opposed to the Adam Dunns of the world.
He did have a 10 RBI day once so maybe he doesnt hate baseball that much
Just how bad is Dunn's defense
Just my luck, i came across UZR ratings analysis since 2002 done by the baseball analysts. Only two players have been worse in the outfield, however, both Griffey and Bernie used to be great so they get a reprieve. No such excuse for adam dunn. Also, how great was Andruw Jones! How quickly the mighty fall
Adam Dunn sucks at first base too
We all know by now that Adam Dunn is a butcher in left field. Considering this is the easiest position on the field, the prospects of Dunn being less of a defensive liability at a different position is minuscule. His fielding value the past 4 years according to fangraphs is -18.9, -13.9, -20, and -28 last years. This is monumentally bad. It may be all time bad for all i know. Anyway, Davey Johnson decided to put adam dunn at first base for the USA v Venezuela game tonight due to the injury of kevin youkili. No surprisingly, dunn committed a throwing error at first base that led to 4 unearned runs. Team USA lost 10-6. Thankfully, the US has secured a spot in the semifinals, so i suggest Dunn goes back to left field and hope no balls come his way
See David "MVP" Eckstein, I Can Do This Too!
Here's a section from a recent Jayson Stark "Rumblings and Grumbling" ESPN.com article:
We don't use words like "collusion" lightly at times like this, in a world like this.
So somewhere in this column, we're going to search for a different word, a more fitting word, to describe what might be the strangest offseason in modern baseball history.
For the moment, we don't know quite what to call it. But let's just say we're convinced what we've been witnessing hasn't been business as usual.
How far from usual has it all been? Well, we interrupt our national obsession with the continued unemployment of Manny Ramirez for this important announcement:
It isn't just Manny.
He has lots of company. Lots and lots and lots.
• There were five free agents this winter who drove in at least 100 runs last season. Three of those five are still unemployed (Manny, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu).
• There were four free agents who scored 90 runs or more. Three of those four are still putting the "free" back in free agency (Manny, Abreu and Orlando Cabrera).
• There were 10 free agents who had batting averages over .295. Four of those 10 still don't have jobs (Manny, Orlando Hudson, Mark Grudzielanek and Abreu). And the job held by one of the other six (Sean Casey) is "broadcaster" -- a field he decided to enter because no team apparently thought a guy who hit .322 could play anymore.
• There were also 10 free agents who had an on-base percentage of .374 or better. Four of those 10 are still looking for work (Manny, Dunn, Ray Durham and Doug Mientkiewicz). And it would be five if we count Casey.
• There were 13 free agents who hit 20 home runs or more. Five of those 13 are still out there (Dunn, Manny, Abreu, Kevin Millar and Jim Edmonds). And a sixth (Ty Wigginton) didn't sign until two days ago.
• Finally, want to talk pitching?
And do we even need to remind you that it's February?
Yet we count 72 players who logged significant time in the big leagues in 2008 who are still out there, wondering where they're going to play -- or whether they're going to play -- in 2009. Yessir. That number was 72.
That number is closer to 90 if you count all big-league free agents.
Amazingly, eight of those players made at least $10 million last season. But now, with a week to go until spring training, none of them has a job.
So how do we explain that, huh?
When we raised this topic with Bud Selig a couple of weeks ago, he spent the next half hour reminding us that this was "the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression" -- and concluded: "I'm stunned if anybody thinks that there's something [like collusion] going on [and] doesn't understand what the economy is doing. I really am.
He isn't the only one. A high-ranking official of one AL team said: "Out of the 30 teams in the sport, 15 are scared to death by this economy. They're scared about ticket sales. They're scared that sponsorships are going to be cutting back. They're just scared."
Meanwhile, one NL club official had a more basic explanation. Essentially, he said, it's the agents' faults.
"Everybody predicted this," he said. "All the predictions said this market would be difficult, and these guys just misread it. They didn't take jobs that were offered, and now those jobs aren't there anymore. They had jobs. They didn't take them."
There's some truth to every one of those assessments.
There's more to this article, but it's REALLY long and if the rest of the article is like the first part then I'm going to have an aneurysm and die
We don't use words like "collusion" lightly at times like this, in a world like this.
But here we go
So somewhere in this column, we're going to search for a different word, a more fitting word, to describe what might be the strangest offseason in modern baseball history.
But my guess is that we’re actually going to talk about free agents and use useless statistics to wonder why these players are still free agents
For the moment, we don't know quite what to call it. But let's just say we're convinced what we've been witnessing hasn't been business as usual.
I don’t know about Jayson Stark, but my guess, I mean as a rational human being who understand baseball a little bit, is that I’m going to call it GM’s just being smart
How far from usual has it all been? Well, we interrupt our national obsession with the continued unemployment of Manny Ramirez for this important announcement:
I mean ESPN’s obsession because the nation just doesn’t give a fuck at this point
It isn't just Manny.
It's just Manny being 36 years old
He has lots of company. Lots and lots and lots.
Or maybe just Adam Dunn and other guys who used to be good or players who I think are good but actually aren'tWant to know how much? Here are some 100-percent factual tidbits that drive home precisely how widespread this free-agent meltdown has been:
Yes these tibits are technically "facts" but there also screwed stats to prove my point
• There were five free agents this winter who drove in at least 100 runs last season. Three of those five are still unemployed (Manny, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu).
Yeah, my guess of using useless stats came true!
• There were four free agents who scored 90 runs or more. Three of those four are still putting the "free" back in free agency (Manny, Abreu and Orlando Cabrera).
OMFG, Orlando Cabrera who spent most of the year in the #1 hole was able to score at least 90 runs, sweet! He must be good if he can score at least 90 runs leading off games and being second in the AL last year with 661 ABs!
• There were 10 free agents who had batting averages over .295. Four of those 10 still don't have jobs (Manny, Orlando Hudson, Mark Grudzielanek and Abreu). And the job held by one of the other six (Sean Casey) is "broadcaster" -- a field he decided to enter because no team apparently thought a guy who hit .322 could play anymore.
Yes, more stats that really don't matter! I mean, fuck those things like walks and on base percentage to go along with that .295 BA
• There were also 10 free agents who had an on-base percentage of .374 or better. Four of those 10 are still looking for work (Manny, Dunn, Ray Durham and Doug Mientkiewicz). And it would be five if we count Casey.
OK, now we're getting somewhere. A player with an OBS of .374 is actually worth a look at.
• There were 13 free agents who hit 20 home runs or more. Five of those 13 are still out there (Dunn, Manny, Abreu, Kevin Millar and Jim Edmonds). And a sixth (Ty Wigginton) didn't sign until two days ago.
Yes, 20 HRs is pretty good but let's not look at things like age, defense, and slugging percentage. Not to mention neither Edmonds, Millar, nor Wigginton were on that list of having a .374 OBS or better
• Finally, want to talk pitching?
I guess Jayson StarkFive of the 12 free-agent starting pitchers who won 11 games or more don't have teams (six if you count Mike Mussina). Three of the eight who saved 15 games or more are still out of work. And three of the eight starters who had strikeout rates of better than seven whiffs per nine innings are still team-less.
1) When talking about free agents I'm going to make a specific purpose to mention a guy who retired to make my case look better and 2) I'm going to look at wins and saves, two stats that we "ESPN baseball insiders" like to point out so obviously GMs should too
And do we even need to remind you that it's February?
NOPE! Don't worry Jayson Stark, we can read letters and numbers that is on this new invention called a calendarOr that spring training starts in a week?
But not for everybody
Yet we count 72 players who logged significant time in the big leagues in 2008 who are still out there, wondering where they're going to play -- or whether they're going to play -- in 2009. Yessir. That number was 72.
But really only Adam Dunn and Manny on a short term contract or a long one with little money are TRUELY worth anything
That number is closer to 90 if you count all big-league free agents.
Again, that number is really just two. T-W-O. Ok, you win Jayson Stark, I'll also throw maybe Bobby Abreu in there as well. So three! Not fucking 72 or 90, only fucking 3!And if you count all unemployed free agents (including minor leaguers, players coming back from injuries or Japan, etc.), there are still well over 100 guys out of work. In the first week of February.
Hey, can I be a free agent as well Jayson with a "Y". Can I be free agent 101?
Amazingly, eight of those players made at least $10 million last season. But now, with a week to go until spring training, none of them has a job.
Oh my god, if a player got paid a lot of money he must have performed well, because no one who makes that much money can suck! Like Carl Pavano!
So how do we explain that, huh?
Again, my explanation is that GMs are not like Steve Stone, they're actually smart and rationalWell, depends on whom you ask. Obviously.
It's CLEARLY obvious but I'm going to point it out anyway
When we raised this topic with Bud Selig a couple of weeks ago, he spent the next half hour reminding us that this was "the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression" -- and concluded: "I'm stunned if anybody thinks that there's something [like collusion] going on [and] doesn't understand what the economy is doing. I really am.
And then Bud Selig shat his pants and died. Oh wait, that's just in my dreams
He isn't the only one. A high-ranking official of one AL team said: "Out of the 30 teams in the sport, 15 are scared to death by this economy. They're scared about ticket sales. They're scared that sponsorships are going to be cutting back. They're just scared."
Like the Yankees, they go out and spend 240 million dollars and then ask for money from NYC
Meanwhile, one NL club official had a more basic explanation. Essentially, he said, it's the agents' faults.
Or the players who just aren't good/are old + GM's being retarded on Adam Dunn
"Everybody predicted this," he said. "All the predictions said this market would be difficult, and these guys just misread it. They didn't take jobs that were offered, and now those jobs aren't there anymore. They had jobs. They didn't take them."
There's some truth to every one of those assessments.
Yes, technically everything I said IS true, just not relevantNobody argues that.
But I do want to argue against some of the basis for why you made these true statementsBut is there more going on here than the struggling economy, the fear it's generated and the misjudgments made by individual agents and players?
Or misjudgments made by baseball analysts and those who create media and sports hype. But I'm just guessing
There's more to this article, but it's REALLY long and if the rest of the article is like the first part then I'm going to have an aneurysm and die
The World Hates Adam Dunn (Updated Version)
Adam Dunn can't catch a break. Despite the fact that he annually hits 40 HRs, walks over 100 times and consistently posts an OPS near 130, he sucks. Despite everything he has accomplished, he is a terrible baseball player who doesn't try and clogs basepaths. He's slow. He doesn't steal bases. He's not clutch. He clogs the bases. For confirmation of Dunn's suckiness, look no further than Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star (as if anyone in KC knew anything about baseball).
He strikes out a ton. He hits .225 with runners in scoring position for his career (and over his career he has never hit better than .248 in those situations).
Who needs to hit the ball with runners in scoring position when you hit yourself in 40 times a year and walk 20% of the time?
He walks (797 times) about as often as he gets a hit (955 hits) — those walks might be good for value but that doesn’t make them fun to watch.
Fuck winning and valuable contributions. I want to see great plays, not great players.
There is a sense around the game that he does not especially like playing baseball; and nobody who has watched him play with any regularity would argue that he demonstrates Willie Mays’ joy.
Again, who gives a shit how little you try or how little enthusiasm you show when you rack up 40 home runs and 122 walks in the process? That's like saying "the U.S. Constitution is a piece of shit because James Madison didn't like writing as much as John Locke and other Enlightenists."
At the same time, I think it’s probably also fair to say that Willie Bloomquist, for all his obvious shortcomings,
Shortcomings like hitting one extra-base-hit (a double) all season long (192 PAs)
can be a fun player to watch, if you are a certain kind of baseball fan.
The kind of fan who enjoys singles and watching a player contribute to 101 losses with an 83 OPS+ in 2008.
He plays all the positions — he has at least 10 games at every position but pitcher and catcher — and he seems to play them all credibly.
Tony Pena Jr. struck out Pudge last year. So what?
He can run (he has stolen 71 bases in 87 attempts), and he hustles, and he has that underdog thing going for him.
He doesn't hit 40 home runs like clockwork or walk 122 times a season, but MAN is Bloomquist a hotdogger! He's got so much heart! He might even be the next David Eckstein (who, likely out of work for 2009, just penned the century's most anticipated baseball novel "Have Heart").
He has only six career homers, but, hey, one was a grand slam.
Hey, even though he really sucks, he did have one good at bat once.
No one who has ever watched Willie Bloomquist play would doubt that the guy loves ball.
And my point is that I believe every baseball fan, at his/her core, leans Dunn or Bloomquist.
Every baseball fan is either understands the game as enumerated by historical data and scientific reasoning or doesn't. The ones who don't are generally afraid of the the magic and sorcery that is sabremetrics and have continuously called for Bill James and Michael Lewis to be burnt at the stake.
People who believe that on-base percentage and slugging are the most significant things, that defense and speed are overrated, that what matters is what you do and not how you look doing it lean heavily Dunn.
These people are nerds who live in their mom's basements and do nothing with their lives other than crunch numbers and not play baseball.
The New York Yankees have leaned heavily Dunn: Get on base, slug the ball, don’t worry too much about catching it. And so on.
The New York Yankees, despite their inefficient payroll, also made the playoffs for 13 consecutive years.
I think it’s probably fair to say that Adam Dunn, for all his obvious talents, can be a remarkably frustrating player to watch.
The sheer enjoyment one derives by observing players is much more important than winning games. Aaron Rowand is an MVP.
He is a dreadful left fielder, a designated hitter in outfielder’s clothes.
Adam Dunn's range factor is generally below league average.He’s slow, though it should be noted that he’s not a bad baserunner…according to the Bill James baserunner analysis he’s actually a very GOOD base runner.
Adam Dunn is so slow is that, despite being a very good baserunner who scores on hits, he isn't fast enough to be fun to watch.
He’s brutal going first to third, as you might expect, but he tends to score from second on singles and from first on doubles, he doesn’t run into many stupid outs, he doesn’t get caught stealing,
So what if he doesn't make outs and scores runs? His jogging isn't fun to watch. Believe me you, Adam Dunn is no Willy Taveras!
and he doesn’t ground into many double plays
He's also no Derrek Lee!
(though in his case that probably has little to do with his running and a lot to do with his fly ball tendencies and his many, many strikeouts.
If only Adam Dunn stopped hitting balls out of the infield (and out of the park) and slapped the shit out of grounders like Michael Bourne; imagine the possibilities.He strikes out a ton. He hits .225 with runners in scoring position for his career (and over his career he has never hit better than .248 in those situations).
Who needs to hit the ball with runners in scoring position when you hit yourself in 40 times a year and walk 20% of the time?
He walks (797 times) about as often as he gets a hit (955 hits) — those walks might be good for value but that doesn’t make them fun to watch.
Fuck winning and valuable contributions. I want to see great plays, not great players.
There is a sense around the game that he does not especially like playing baseball; and nobody who has watched him play with any regularity would argue that he demonstrates Willie Mays’ joy.
Again, who gives a shit how little you try or how little enthusiasm you show when you rack up 40 home runs and 122 walks in the process? That's like saying "the U.S. Constitution is a piece of shit because James Madison didn't like writing as much as John Locke and other Enlightenists."
At the same time, I think it’s probably also fair to say that Willie Bloomquist, for all his obvious shortcomings,
Shortcomings like hitting one extra-base-hit (a double) all season long (192 PAs)
can be a fun player to watch, if you are a certain kind of baseball fan.
The kind of fan who enjoys singles and watching a player contribute to 101 losses with an 83 OPS+ in 2008.
He plays all the positions — he has at least 10 games at every position but pitcher and catcher — and he seems to play them all credibly.
Tony Pena Jr. struck out Pudge last year. So what?
He can run (he has stolen 71 bases in 87 attempts), and he hustles, and he has that underdog thing going for him.
He doesn't hit 40 home runs like clockwork or walk 122 times a season, but MAN is Bloomquist a hotdogger! He's got so much heart! He might even be the next David Eckstein (who, likely out of work for 2009, just penned the century's most anticipated baseball novel "Have Heart").
He has only six career homers, but, hey, one was a grand slam.
Hey, even though he really sucks, he did have one good at bat once.
No one who has ever watched Willie Bloomquist play would doubt that the guy loves ball.
No one who has ever looked at Willie "underdog" Bloomquist's career numbers would ever doubt how bad he is at baseball.
Yes, in my mind, Adam Dunn and Willie Bloomquist are almost perfect opposites.
Adam Dunn is good at baseball and Willie Bloomquist is not. End of article.
And while they are not anything close to equal baseball players, I would also say that you would not want to build a whole team of Bloomquists or Dunns.
Actually, if you were to tell me I could build a major league roster of players who would all hit 40 home runs and walk 120 times a season, I'd cum in my pants.
According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis — one of my favorite toys— a whole team of 2008 Adam Dunns would average 6.67 runs per game — so that’s 1,080 runs per season. A whole team of 2008 Willie Bloomquists, meanwhile, would average 4.177 runs per game — 677 runs per season. So using the Musinator, Dunn is 400 or so runs better offensively than Bloomquist. That sounds about right to me.
According to data from 2005-2008, teams that scored 5 runs in a game had winning percentage (in those games) upward of .613, while every run scored beyond the fifth seemed to increase the team's winning percentage by about .100. By contrast teams who scored 4 runs per game won approximately .465 of the time. Considering that Adam Dunn's career OPS+ is 30% above league average and Willie Bloomquists is 26% below league average, I'd say Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis did a good job here.
Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play.
They'd make up for the error by walking and then hitting a two run blast in the bottom of the inning.
By the way, this Lineup Analysis is sort of a fun way to compare players. Take the great NL MVP race of 2008. According to the Musinator, a team of 2008 Albert Pujols would score 1,488 runs for a season. A team of 2008 Ryan Howards would score 977 runs for a season.
In other words, Adam Dunn isn't as good of a player as Albert Pujols, but he's better than Ryan Howard. You see no objections by me here.
So, by this way of thinking, Pujols is 500-plus runs better. And he’s a much better defensive player, and a much better base runner, and … I’m really not sure why this was ever really an argument.
In actuality, the 2008 NL MVP wasn't much of an argument. Idiot sportswriters like you, however, tried to fuck it up with ancient, obsolete baseball intuition.
It’s also a fun way to look at the Hall of Fame Ballot. Here, using the players career numbers, is what a complete team made up of each player would score for a season:
Mark McGwire: 1,199 runs per season.
Rickey Henderson: 953 runs per season.
Jim Rice: 948 runs per season.
Tim Raines: 918 runs per season.
Don Mattingly: 916 runs per season.
Dale Murphy: 880 runs per season.
Dave Parker: 864 runs per season.
Andre Dawson: 837 runs per season.
Alan Trammell: 812 runs per season.
For a guy who is knocking on Adam Dunn, you just showed that his career numbers, thus far, would surpass those of Shoe-in hall of famer Rickey Henderson. Granted, Dunn is in his prime and has yet to regress on the back end of his career, but he's still a really fucking good player.
Of course, that’s just offense, and it doesn’t take into account much base running,
Considering that Bill James has already proven that Adam Dunn's baserunning is well above average, who cares?
Perhaps you could just visit www.baseballprospectus.com and look up these player's WARPs and we wouldn't be having this pointless arguement. It's not like researching sports to make an educated opinion is your job or anything...
I find all this to be a little bit more than an interesting side note — I think that, in many ways, Dunn and Bloomquist represent opposing philosophies about baseball.
The old good versus bad philosophy?
I think the Adam Dunn philosophy is built around what you can see, what is measurable, what is cold and hard and real.
Not to mention what is consistent and independent of luck.
With Dunn, you get a titanic power hitter who plays every day, hits long home runs (exactly 40 ever year — no more, no less), walks a lot, strikes out every three or four at bats, plays zero positions, doesn’t have much speed and doesn’t do those little things that show off his great love of the game. The Dunn Way is the Michael Corleone Way, strictly business.
Adam Dunn is a souless robot who hates baseball and would murder his own brother if given the opportunity.
The Willie Bloomquist philosophy, meanwhile, is built around passion, what is intangible, this sense that if you can get a bunch of guys who KNOW HOW to play the game, who LOVE the game, who HAVE BASEBALLS BEATING IN THEIR CHESTS,
First and foremost, this is not "the Willie Bloomquist way"; it is the David Eckstein way. David Eckstein patented "heart" in 2002 and renewed the copyright in 2006.
Secondly, as clearly evident by his career 74 OPS+, Willie Bloomquist doesn't not "know how to play the game" of baseball, no matter how much he "loves" it.
then you can do wonderful things (even if the players can’t hit worth a damn).
Actually, without getting on base or clubbing home runs, you can't do shit. No matter how fast you run.
With Bloomquist you have an astonishingly weak hitter who plays occasionally, cracked ONE EXTRA BASE HIT last year, doesn’t get on base, plays seven defensive positions,
A glaring endorsement for Willie Bloomquist's 2-year, $3 million deal.
can really run and gets his uniform so dirty that, according to his jarringly lengthy Wikipedia entry, he has over the years been called (mostly in jest/derision) Wee Willie, Ballgame, The Ignitor, Effin, WFB, The Spork, Princess Willie, Willie Boom-Boom and, by Angels announcer Rex Hudler, The Mighty Bloomquist.
I can't put my finger on why, but somehow, nicknames like Princess Willie the imposing punch of "Big Donkey."And my point is that I believe every baseball fan, at his/her core, leans Dunn or Bloomquist.
Every baseball fan is either understands the game as enumerated by historical data and scientific reasoning or doesn't. The ones who don't are generally afraid of the the magic and sorcery that is sabremetrics and have continuously called for Bill James and Michael Lewis to be burnt at the stake.
People who believe that on-base percentage and slugging are the most significant things, that defense and speed are overrated, that what matters is what you do and not how you look doing it lean heavily Dunn.
These people are nerds who live in their mom's basements and do nothing with their lives other than crunch numbers and not play baseball.
The New York Yankees have leaned heavily Dunn: Get on base, slug the ball, don’t worry too much about catching it. And so on.
The New York Yankees, despite their inefficient payroll, also made the playoffs for 13 consecutive years.
At the same time, there are plenty of people in the game and in the stands who believe that you win by doing the little things,
Little things that don't actually contribute to winning games consistently.
by playing defense and running out ground balls and playing the game with passion every day. They lean heavily Bloomquist. The Minnesota Twins, for instance, lean Bloomquist. The Twins run and catch the ball and they have not worried too much about power or on-base percentage. This, no doubt, frustrates the heck out of a lot of Dunn-leaning Twins fans.
Actually, the Twins were carried by a phenomenal starting/relief pitching core (Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Liriano, Nathan, Reyes, Crain) that was carried by what little offense that Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span could mustard on their own (since the rest of the team was largely too concerned with doing all the "little things" that don't win games). Willie Bloomquist-like offense didn't win the Twins 88 games last year; great pitching did.
You know who also won more games than the Twins in 2008? Those awful Yankees and their Adam Dunn-philosophy to winning.
It’s an irritating feeling when you lean heavily one way and have a team that leans heavily the other way. But I think the more irritating feeling is when you do not know which way your team leans. And that, finally, leads us to the Kansas City Royals, recent purchasers of Willie Bloomquist himself.
The Royals under Dayton Moore have TALKED about leaning Dunn. That is, Dayton has made statements that would lead you to believe he cares a whole lot about on-base percentage and power numbers.
Mark Jacobs? Mark Teahen? Ross Gload? The Royals are not leaning towards The Dunn Method, no matter what claims management has that they are looking for "on-base players" for 2009.
That’s what he says. But everything he DOES leads you to believe he leans very, very Bloomquist.
Here are Dayton’s big-money signings and trades the last couple of years:
1. Jose Guillen ($12 million per): .323 on-base percentage.
2. Mike Jacobs ($3 million or so): .318 on-base percentage.
3. Coco Crisp ($5.75 million or so): .331 on-base percentage.
4. Willie Bloomquist ($1.55 million plus incentives): .324 on-base percentage.
5. Miguel Olivo ($2.7 million): .275 on-base percentage.
That’s actually quite remarkable. Look at that list again. You have five pickups totaling about $25 million per year — and you have to suspect that all five will be in next year’s lineup quite regularly. And not one guy — not ONE GUY — has even a league average on-base percentage for his career.
This is why, more or less, the Royals have sucked every year for the past 15 years. They are the Pittsburg Pirates of the AL.
Look at that list again. That’s the core of the Kansas City lineup — the leadoff hitter, the four-five hitters, the eight-nine hitters probably. And that’s a combined .314 on-base percentage.
And yet fuck Adam Dunn and his career .381 on-base percentage.
So why did Dayton sign these guys?
Good question.
1. Jose Guillen: Because he was the best right-handed “power” bat available, and he’s “a real competitor.”
2. Mike Jacobs: Because he’s got power, and “his work ethic is off the 3. Coco Crisp: Because he’s an excellent defensive center fielder, has speed and could blossom playing every day. Plus, he has “been a part of championship teams.”
4. Willie Bloomquist: Because he’s got some speed, he’s versatile and “He’s an on base guy(??), a speed-type player and a hustler.”
5. Miguel Olivo: Because he’s got a little pop in his bat and he can throw out baserunners.
The Royals believe in the Bloomquist Way.
The philosophy of losing.
And look, I am not saying that these moves will not work.
Good, because -- just like with the 2005 Nationals -- they probably won't.
They could work, I guess. There are many ways to win baseball games. Guillen could have one more good season left in him. Jacbos could pop 30 homers. Crisp could revert back to his Cleveland days and could win a Gold Glove in Kansas City’s big center field. Bloomquist could, um, … well, he could be used as a super utility player. Olivo could … well, anyway.
Yes, if every player on the team were to have to career highs in every statistical category, you could probably win some games.
The Royals also spent $4.25 million per year on Kyle Farnsworth and $1.9 million on Horacio Ramirez.
Spent or overspent?
Man, the Royals threw around a lot of money to a lot of players who did not have good years in 2008. Maybe it will work.
But probably not.
They do have a lot of guys in the clubhouse who love the game.
I personally would have taken that money and signed Adam Dunn and a couple of other guys who may not like baseball a whole lot but at least get on base and get batters out.
Hey, me too!
It's a different philosophy.
The philosophy of winning.
