Dayton Moore: Trust The Silliness

Despite keeping the Royals the perpetual laughing stock of baseball, the AL's Pittsburgh Pirates, since taking over as Royals GM in 2006 (handing out silly contracts to guys Jose Guillen and Juan Cruz, while trading for guys like Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourt), Dayton Moore's patented process has quickly converted the Royals' once relatively barren farm system into one of baseball's best in modern memory. Makes you think that Dayton Moore might actually know what he's doing, right?

Especially when he says the following about Saber-darling Kila Ka'aihue:
Kila is a smart kid. He works hard. We think that what we saw in the last three weeks of the season from him is what he's capable of. We think he can hit .240-.260, hit 20-25 homers, .370 OBP. It will be a nice problem fitting all these guys in the lineup.
Gives you confidence that they'll give him a shot, rather than relegate him to a reserve role, right? Maybe leverage Butler to fill a team hole and plug the Kila Monster in the vacancy with Hosmer sharing 1B/DH duties? Still, when Moore continues talking, it makes you wonder if he's really the "genius" he's retroactively being touted as:
We need more speed and athleticism. My ideal team would have someone like Adam Jones or Torii Hunter up the middle, a guy who can provide speed, defense, and power. We'll have to see if Lorenzo Cain can be a player like that.
Increasing athleticism and power would be admirable goals if, beyond the fact that on base is 1.3 times as important as slugging, the people you aspire to acquire were actually athletic. Just to set the record straight, Torii Hunter has been a below average outfielder by both UZR and Total Zane estimates for the past half decade. He's accrued a -26.3 UZR over the past five seasons, posting a UZR/150 of -9.0 or worse in two of the past five seasons. Likewise, Adam Jones has not been a positive centerfielder in either of the past two seasons. His career UZR/150 in center is a tad better than -2.0, but his 2009-10 cumulative UZR is -12.6. Jones' "power," average or worse in all but one season of his career, is also quite dubious.

Keep in mind the Rays also got a better haul, at least in my estimation, for Garza than the Royals did for Greinke. Silly Cubs.

Then again, this is the same organization that thought that they had "the greatest offseason in the history of whatever” last year...

2011 Draft Special: Pick #19- New York Giants


There are two things the Giants always seem to have a plethora of: pass rushers and running backs. At one point, Packers running back Ryan Grant was 5th on New York's depth chart behind Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns. Even though the team traded Grant, released Droughns, and let Ward walk when his contract ran up, this team still has a damn fine rushing combination of Bradshaw and Jacobs.

On the other side of the ball, this team won a Superbowl based upon the pressure of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. The next year when Strahan retired (and did everything but play football) and Umenyiora got injured, the Giants were still able to bring great pressure Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka.

This is a great great GREAT formula to win games and divisions every year. Except for the tiny fact that the Giants missed the playoffs in 2010.

Last year the Giants offensive line ranked 7th in run blocking and 2nd in pass blocking. This offensive line is really good and have been above average for the past couple of years now. The Giants also have one of the best receiving corps in the game right now considering the breakout year that Hakeem Nicks had, Steve Smith (who has since earned the title "The Better Steve Smith" and Carolina's Smith now gets the title of "The Crappy Steve Smith") and Mario Manningham. Smith has proven to be a number one wide out but I think he has a better role has the possession #2 guy. Smith is a free agent this offseason and I think it would be wise to re-sign him. However, if this team truly doesn't have the cap space for him, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to let him go.

The biggest problem with the Giants offense is Eli Manning. I know Giants fans love Manning but he is on par with David Garrard for me- an average player who will have great seasons and some bad ones; a player who has the talent to start but not the talent to be elite and lead a team down field to win a game. When Manning was drafted everyone knew he didn't have the strongest arm- which is a HUGE problem when you play in the wind tunnel d.b.a. The Meadowlands. New Meadowlands helps out Manning's play a bit but considering how amazing Philip Rivers is and considering what a whiny little brat Eli Manning was coming out of college, I truly believe the Giants made an awful decision trading away Rivers for Manning.

Just a fun fact, career back up to Peyton Manning Jim Sorgi is now Eli Manning's back up in New York.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants biggest problem is their run playing abilities. As I mentioned earlier in this post, this team can rush the pass like nobody's business (which more than makes up for an average secondary) but their linebackers and defensive tackles aren't the greatest at run blocking and tackling. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants ranked 3rd in overall defense (7th in weighted defense), 3rd in pass defense but 15th in rush defense.

Like the San Diego Chargers, this team has a GREAT core and as much as I hate on them, there's very little need for improvement. And like the Chargers, the Giants main flaw was that they turned over the ball like nobody's business. The Giants were 10th in the NFC with a -3 turnover margin and dead last in the NFL with 42 give aways. Ahmad Bradshaw had 7 fumbles last year (6 lost) and Manning had a career high 25 interceptions (more than he's had in the past two years combined).

I'm going to say that the Giants should draft Illinois defensive tackle Corey Luiget here. Both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have Luiget as a top 15 player overall but I'm going to trust The 'Bright' One's opinion- and he says Luiget is a early-to-mid second round talent at best. But the scouting report says that Luiget is a fantastic run blocker and NFL teams love him. So even if Corey Luiget isn't a first round talent, he'll be drafted on Day 1.

Giants Needs:

- Quarterback

- Run Stoppers

- Tight End

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
15) Miami Dolphins- DE/OLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)
16) Jacksonville Jaguars- DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin)
17) New England Patriots- OT Tyron Smith (USC)
18) San Diego Chargers- G/C Mike Pouncey (Florida)

Quarterback Solutions

While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.

The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.

That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.

Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.

But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades

LONG TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Kyle Orton
Current Team: Denver Broncos

I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.

The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.

I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.

Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.

2) Kevin Kolb
Current Team: Philadelphia Eagles

I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.

The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .

With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.

3) Vince Young
Current Team: Tennessee Titans

Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.

Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.

Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.

4) Matt Leinart
Current Team: Houston Texans

I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.

This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.

While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.

5) Drew Stanton
Current Team: Detroit Lions

It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.

6) Brady Quinn
Current Team: Denver Broncos

Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.

While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.

7) Caleb Hanie
Current Team: Chicago Bears

When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.

Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Carson Palmer
Current Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.

The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.

2) Ryan Fitzpatrick
Current Team: Buffalo Bills

Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.

With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.

3) Donovan McNabb
Current Team: Washington Redskins

I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #18- San Diego Chargers


In 2011, the San Diego Chargers ranked first in offensive yards, second in points per game, third in first downs, fourth in third down percentage (offensive), first in yards given up (meaning their defensive gave up the fewest yards), 10th best in points allowed per game, and 4th best in third down conversions allowed.

And this team missed the playoffs?

Well here's why. THE best indicator to winning games is giveaways and takeaways. The Chargers were awful at that in 2010 giving up the ball six times for every one time they got a take away. Here were the top five teams in the AFC in terms of turnover differential (in order): Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Jets, and Ravens. Notice a trend there? All five of those teams made the playoffs.

Another reason San Diego missed the playoffs: special teams. An extremely underrated aspect of the game. I truly believe that special teams count for one third of play (with defense and offense being the other two thirds). Sure, the special teams are not on the field nearly as long as the offense and defense are, but they're just as important. So even though the Chargers were really freaking good on offense and defense, they were bad on special teams.

The Chargers were tied for first in kickoff yards given up, first in kickoff touchdowns given up, tied for second in punt touchdowns given up, fifth in punt yards given up, and first in average yards per punt given up.

Both of San Diego's main woes in 2010 are easily correctable. Getting better in special teams just takes a better special teams coach and Tiki Barber can tell you what to do to help an offensive with its give away problems.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers had the 4th best offense, 2nd best pass offense, 18th best rushing offense, were the most consistent offense week to week, 9th best defense, 4th best pass defense, 10th best rush defense, and the worst special teams.

This team also missed 15 games of Vincent Jackson, five games of Malcolm Floyd, and spent the entire season with the corpse of Ryan Matthews.

This team is not only set to win the AFC West again but poised to make a Superbowl run.

Both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have Illinois defensive tackle Corey Luiget already drafted at this point, but I'm going to take the advice of The 'Bright' One (A guy who actually watched Illini football games on a consistent basis) and say Luiget does not deserve to be a first rounder. Both Kiper and McShay have defensive ends Cameron Jordan and Adrian Clayborn going high as well. All would be great fits for this team. But my number one go to philosophy is that you can never have enough offensive lineman.

There are some great ones out there like Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi but not only do I love the talent of his brother but I love his versatility. So I say the Chargers should draft G/C Mike Pouncey from Florida. But if I'm truly in the Chargers position, I would trade this first round pick because that's where I think the true value is with this pick.

I can't believe I almost went this entire post without praising Philip Rivers. While I do not truly believe you need an elite quarterback to win a Superbowl (see: Trent Dilfer's Ravens, Eli Manning's Giants) it sure as hell helps. And Rivers is an elite quarterback. He is amazing. I can't say enough good things about Rivers. And for all you haters who make the argument "Well, Rivers isn't elite yet because he hasn't won a ring" then you're an idiot. Both these arguments were made about Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers before their respective Superbowl wins and these players were/are the same elite talent before their win as well as after. Plus, one of (if not THE) greatest quarterbacks of all time is Dan Marino. Who is ringless.

Anyways, Rivers is phenomenal.

Charger's Needs:

- Kick Returner

- Better Coaching

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
15) Miami Dolphins- DE/OLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)
16) Jacksonville Jaguars- DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin)
17) New England Patriots- OT Tyron Smith (USC)

2011 Draft Special: Pick #17- New England Patriots


Technically, Pick 17 was reserved to the Oakland Raiders but they traded away their 2011 first round draft pick to the Patriots for Richard Seymour. I know I should talk about the Raiders team right here considering this is technically their pick, but I need to do a full discussion on the Patriots 1) In order to know what player they should draft with the 17th overall pick in order to realistically help the draft board move along 2) so I know what the Pats need when their next pick comes along and 3) I'll just do a full discussion of the Raiders when it comes to Pick 28- the true New England draft position.

If I was the GM on th New Patriots I would just go up to Bill Belichick and say, "what would you like to do with your team". I promise I'm not just saying this because I'm a Patriots fan, but I'm saying it because it's true. Bill Belichick is THE greatest active coach and is one of the greatest football coaches of all time. He truly is a football genius when it comes to play designing, player evaluation, and how to run an NFL football team. Needless to say what I think about the New England Patriots does not matter. What you think of the New England Patriots does not matter. All that matters is what Bill Belichick thinks because he is smarter than you.

It's because of this that I'm kind of going to half-ass this post. Not because I'm lazy (albeit I am) but because I really don't know how Belichick's scheme works completely. Here's what I do know:

1) Don't turn over the ball on offense.

Yes, obviously a huge cliche in football, but the Patriots are masters of it. From Week 6 on Tom Brady didn't throw an interception in the regular season and only threw at least one interception in 14 out of the 16 games he played in. Running back BenJaarvis Green-Ellis hasn't had a fumble in his entire professional career. Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker each and one last year. You can't teach awesomeness. Well, Bill Belichick can.

2) Have an amazing offensive line.

The only other team that could possibly rival the New England Patriots in terms of offensive line talent is the New York Jets- and with the Patriots putting the franchise tag on G Logan Mankins, their offensive line will still be awesome. Although it is a legitimate concerns that Mankins leaves after next year, this line is not only the catalyst for this offense (and what it should be with every team) but it gives Tom Brady so much times that it's easy not to give up turnovers.

Belichick also takes the philosophy that The 'Bright' One and I teach- it is unnecessary to draft running backs (and wide receivers) when you have an amazing offensive line. The Pats line creates more holes than a carpenter (he has drills, makes stuff... never mind) that even undrafted, 4th-guy-on-the-depth-chart BenJarvis Green-Ellis looked amazing and was a Pro Bowler in my eyes for the 2010 season.

I know many talking heads (especially those on ESPN) say the Patriots should draft a running back, but why waste the draft pick?

3)If you play defense, be extremely versatile

What made the Patriots teams of the early naughts so great was a) Because of Belichick's awesome system b) Bill was a great motivator/ found great defensive players who were hungry enough to want to win Superbowl(s) and c) Bill's great 3-4 scheme calls for versatility and Bill has always been able to find those guys.

Like any good defense- you have to be able to rush the passer. The Patriots have kind of lost that edge and lost those great linebackers like Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Roosevelt Colvin, and Willis McGinest. Sure, individually those guys were average at best. But you put them together and under a Belichick team and they did great things.

The Patriots defense have some elite parts. They probably have the best nose tackle in the game right now in Vince Wilfork, one of the best linebackers in Jerrod Mayo, and a rookie elite cornerback in Devin McCourty. Sure, the only reason I can name any other Patriots defensive player is because they have names like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich, but name brand really doesn't do anything because, like I've preached for the past five minutes, this is a Bill Belichick team.

In order for a Bill Belichick team to run well it needs two main parts: great offensive lineman and pass rushers. Hell, it doesn't even need an elite quarterback as Matt Cassel's 11 wins showed us in 2007 (Granted, it absolutely helps).

So let's see who fits the bill under this Patriots system that's still left to draft. In terms of offensive lineman, both Mel Kiper Jr and Scouts Inc agree that Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi and USC's Tyron Smith are here for taking. In terms of pass rush, Todd McShay thinks that Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn is a good choice while Mel Kiper believes that Purdue's DE Ryan Kerrigan would be better.

I think in terms of who the Patriots should draft (because they think they way I do) and in terms of what Kiper and McShay agree upon- the New England Patriots will take Tyron Smith. Offensive tackle out of University of Southern California.

Patriots' Needs:

- Versatile Linebackers

- Defensive Backs

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
15) Miami Dolphins- DE/OLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)
16) Jacksonville Jaguars- DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin)

DME's Updated Fantasy Rankings By Position.

It took forever to overhaul, but I just released my completely up-to-date fantasy rankings by position over at The Hardball Times. The first baseman and third basemen ranking in particular have been entirely overhauled.

On a lighter note, we at Game of Inches plan to run a series of baseball season previous podcasts breaking down each baseball division (one division per podcast). Stay tuned for that awesomeness.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #16- Jacksonville Jaguars


We're now starting to get into the territory of good teams and within this territory comes picks solely designed around team needs and not taking the best player on the board.

However, I do not think we are at this point in the draft yet.

I think Jacksonville's biggest hurdle is its quarterback. Choosing David Garrard over Byron Leftwich a few years back was a great decisions; however, Garrard is not a franchise quarterback. Garrard's biggest asset is that he has the ability to not turnover the ball. The only problem of late is that he has been turnover prone AND he doesn't create points. Not a good combination.

I am not saying that David Garrard is talentless- he absolutely has talent. But Jacksonville is in a decently weak division and with Peyton Manning growing older and Jack Del Rio having a knack for pretty good defenses, this division is easily Jacksonville's for the taking. Heck, the Jaguars were in the driver's seat to win the AFC South for most of the year until they lost to Indianapolis late in the season. So if this team ever wants to make it over the hump and not have a 9-7 ceiling, they need to get a better quarterback than David Garrard.

But that's easily said than done.

The 'Bright' One is huge on Ryan Mallet being an awesome quarterback but I was never sold on him and think there's a good reason his draft stock is slipping. Realistically I think the Jaguars best bet is to make a trade but I'm not convinced many teams' back ups are that much of an improvement over Garrard and I don't think there's any "Matt Schaub's" out there.

But let's focus elsewhere. The Jaguars best strength is their running game led by the elite Maurice Jones-Drew and a very talented back up in Rashad Jennings. The Jaguars had the second best rushing offensive line (I believe led mainly by their talented backs) and 24th in pass blocking (I believe led mainly by their average-talented quarterback). In terms of individual blockers Jacksonville is above average and it's not a need for them but as I always preach: you can always improve your offensive line.

Jacksonville has a great tight end bordering on elite in Mercedes Lewis. Lewis has always been a great blocker and started to come on as a receiver in the 2010 season. In Game Of Inches' tight end rankings The 'Bright' One and Cubsfan ranked Lewis 7th overall and I ranked him 8th. The Jags' receivers are another story. I don't think anyone doubts that Mike Sims-Walker has talent but he's streakier than a naked fan running onto a soccer field. Mike Thomas stepped up his game big time last season, but his ceiling looks to be that of 2008 Kevin Walter. Needless to say this team needs a legitimate number one receiver.

Let's now turn to the defense. In Jack Del Rio's tenure and really throughout the entire existence of the Jaguars franchise, this team has had pretty good to great defenses. That being said, this defense was awful in 2010 ranking 5th to last in total yards given up, 5th to last in receiving yards given up per game, 11th to last in rushing yards given up per game, and 6th to last in total points given up. Part of that I think comes from the fact that I can only name one Jacksonville defensive player- cornerback Rashean Mathis. I won't be short sighted and give Jacksonville and Del Rio credit for the work he's done, but this team needs defense.

Therefore, with the 16th pick of the draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... J.J. Watt- defensive end for University of Wisconsin. I can see offensive tackle Tyron Smith (USC) and Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) being great picks, but I think the problem/strength of the offensive line is the skill position players, not the line itself. Plus, most mock drafts have Watt going in the top ten so if Watt falls to Jacksonville- a team that needs defense- the Jags should and will swoop in and pick him up.

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
15) Miami Dolphins- DE/OLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)

2011 Draft Special: Pick #15- Miami Dolphins


I have to admit I was big on Chad Henne coming into the 2010 year. He looked really good at the end of 2009 posting three 300+ yard games out of his last five. I even went so far to say that Henne was a top 15 fantasy quarterback coming into this year.

I apologize to you, I was wrong.

However, I believe that third stringer and former Kansas City quarterback is the best quarterback on the Miami roster. I think he has the potential to be a more mobile Kyle Orton. I know claiming Kyle Orton is your ceiling might be construed as an insult- but it's not. I like Kyle Orton a lot. Chad Pennington does have talent and can do great things as long as his receiver is under 20 yards down the field- but he's old, battered, and bruised. If this team had a playoff caliber defense, then having either a healthy Pennington or Tyler Thigpen would be awesome for this team. Unfortunately, this team does not have a good defense.

I'll get to Miami's defense in a second, but first let's finish up with their offense. I know Brandon Marshall didn't work out well in his first year on South Beach but the dude is immensely talented and realistically for the Dolphins, you're not going to find anyone better. Devone Bess is actually a great complimentary receiver and came into his own as a legitimate number two wide out and once Marshall turns into Broncos Brandon Marshall, Bess will become even better and get more opportunities.

Miami's running game is a different story. Ricky Williams is 33 years old and Ronnie Brown is 29. These guys are no spring chickens. It's actually a shame that these two happen to be on the same team because it gives the appearance that the Dolphins do not need another running back. If I were Miami's GM I would trade at least one or both for draft picks. Last year Miami's offensive line was 18th in run blocking, but number one in 2009. This offensive line has talent on it but opening holes can only do so much for bad skill position players. Miami is pretty mediocre to below average in their offensive line but I believe that if Miami gets better skill position players that the line will look a whole lot better.

Now we can turn to the defense. Miami does have an elite linebacker and sack specialist in pro Bowler Cam Wake. They have have a darn good safety in Chris Clemons and a borderline elite cornerback in Illinois alum Vontae Davis. Despite the fact that I haven't heard of any other starter on that team, the defense did pretty well for themselves. Miami finished 6th overall in total yards given up and 14th overall in total points given up. According to Football Outsiders, Miami had the 8th best defense in the NFL, the 4th best rushing defense, but the 23rd best passing defense. This makes sense because no none other than Wake was bringing pressure and there's a whole side of the side is which Davis and Clemons are not playing.

However, overall, this defense can be easily correctable with one or two players- maybe another elite pass rusher.

The Miami Dolphins can go a whole bunch of different ways here. According to Scouts Inc there are some great value defensive lineman such as DE/OLB Aldon Smith out of Missouri and DE J.J. Watt out of Wisconsin. But also not too far away is Alabama RB Mark Ingram ready for the taking and USC OT Tyron Smith. All of these players would be a fine fit for this club. According to Mel Kiper Jr, Aldon Smith would be a great choice but also Cal DE Cameron Jordan and Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan.

I think Miami should choose between Aldon Smith, Mark Ingram, and Tyron Smith. Because I unfortunately have not scouted these three players I don't know who I personally would have have higher on my board but for the sake of this mock I'll go with a great pass rusher who would fit perfectly in Miami's 3-4 scheme and that would be Aldon Smith

Dolphins's Needs:

- Quarterback

- Running Back

- Pass Rusher

- To Win Multiple Games At Home

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)

Play fantasy baseball with Hardball Times writer Jeffrey Gross.

Fangraphs is hosting a new fantasy baseball service this year. The game is unique in many aspects, including the fact that it's essentially a year-round game. The service retails at $19.99, but if you sign up before March 1, 2011, it will cost only $9.99 to join or create a league.

To that end, Fangraphs was nice enough to set me up as one of the "guest commissioners" for Ottoneu (you may have noticed my league idly existing on the mainpage by now), and I am officially opening my league, on a first-come, first-served basis, to Hardball Times readers who want to participate in what I hope will be a very competitive league. Because I am a traditionalist, my league will be "Old School" format, meaning that it will use the standard 5x5 categories. The league, titled Jeffrey Gross—Hardball Times, will also include Hardball Times fantasy writer Brad Johnson. You can sign-up by clicking here, though you will need to register a login and username first. The password for my league is genius. Do not delay, as space is limited.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #14- St. Louis Rams

Considering the Rams were one game/ two Laurent Robinson drops away from winning their division, I forget they still ended up with a losing record.



As much as Lions DT Donkey Kong Suh is the better player and was the better prospect, the Rams made the right choice in drafting Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. This kid looks amazing, and it shouldn't be a shock considering he looked amazing in college. It turned out going back to his senior year, hurting his shoulder, and essentially missing his entire last year didn't hurt him one bit. He still was the #1 pick in the draft and he still plays like nothing ever happened to him.

Bradford set the rookie record with the most completions, most pass attempts without an interception, and for most times me fawning over him in Box Score Tonight's. In the biggest game of his pro career, the Rams Week 17 game against Seattle, he looked amazing but his receivers were just awful. I don't think there's a synonym of "bad" that's strong enough to explain how putrid the Rams receivers are. (Although putrid is pretty darn close). The Rams two best receivers are Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton- who played a combined four total games. Both receivers should be healthy which can only help in Bradford's development. Illinois rookie tight end Michael Hoomanawanui also looked like a really good target for Bradford (in the few games he was healthy) and he's a guy whom the Rams really like. But even with those players back, the Rams still probably have the second worst receiving corps (right ahead of the Browns).

Steven Jackson is a stud but was hampered by an atrocious offensive line which ranked 25th in run blocking but 10th in pass blocking.

St. Louis improved their defense from 2009 to 2010, but it wasn't THAT hard to do considering they had the second worst defense two years ago. To be honest, I can only name two players on St. Louis's defense and that's only because 1) I looked up the defense and 2) both players were high first round draft picks in James Laurentis and Chris Long. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Laurentis was the 7th best linebacker and Long was the 8th best defensive end so these players are coming into their own and are becoming worth their first round draft pick. The team has some other nice complementary parts like cornerback Bradley Fletcher and safety Oshiomoghho Atogwe but all of those pieces can be replaced easily.

Despite the NFC West being wide open for the taking, the Rams first priority needs to be the development of Sam Bradford. Even if every Ram takes a huge step forward, this team is still not close to making it to the Superbowl. Winning the division and a playoff birth is nice, but this team needs to focus long term because they have the chance to make multiple playoff runs. So while an elite defensive player might help this term in the short run (granted also probably the long run) I think the Rams need to focus on Bradford first and the overall team second. Plus, there's no reason the Rams can't do both- they DO HAVE six more rounds after this plus free agency.

Therefore, I think the Rams need to choose between an offensive lineman or a wide receiver. An elite offensive lineman will ideally not only give Bradford more time to throw but also open up rushing lanes for Steven Jackson (and a more effective Steven Jackson should lead to a more effective Sam Bradford). But I look at the way Bradford played this year with his average line and the one obstacle in his way was his receivers. Plus, if Bradford becomes more effective that in turn will open up for rushing lanes for Jackson. That's why I think the Rams should go wide receiver here. And there's one prime for the taking: Alabama's Julio Jones.

While reading the scouting report in him there are some things that make me questioon why he's a first rounder. Things like
Flashes strong hands but has some inconsistency in this area. Can allow balls into his frame on occasion, resulting in drops. Also needs to do a better job of securing the ball in traffic
But at the other end things like a number one ranking for his big play ability and "Willing to work the middle of the field" are great skills that will only help Bradford. If Jones is an elite of a receiver as "experts" are making him out to be, then I can foresee Rick Blaine saying to them "This is the beginning of a beautiful friendship"

Rams's Needs:

- Defense

Despite the fact they were really two drops away from a playoff birth, this is still not that good of a team, and like all bad teams, they need any defensive player they can get

- Offensive Lineman

2011 Draft Special: Pick #13- Detroit Lions



Considering the Lions play in the NFC North I'm actually pretty familiar with the team's strength and weaknesses and what positions they need for the draft. However, a good friend of mine and of the podcast (and the person who suggested these posts), Daniel Bennett, is from the Detroit area and is a huge Lions fan. So I've asked him to guest write the Lions piece (with *maybe* a few edits of my own). And here... we... GO!
_____________________

Being one of three Lions fans left in the world, Sexy Rexy has asked me to do the draft analysis for Detroit, so I will try not to disappoint. You may think that a franchise that has been rebuilding since 1957, that has not been to the playoffs since 1999, has not had a .500+ season in the last decade, currently holds the NFL consecutive road loss record with 26, and had an 0-16 season may just as well pack it in, but alas, we finally have reason for hope. Two years ago, in the first non- Matt Millen run draft in the past 10 years- the Lions picked what will hopefully be a solid franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Then to follow it up last year the Lions picked up one of the most dominate rookie tackles to ever play the game... Donkey Kong Suh. For the first time in a long time, we Lions fans have hope.

Even with the franchise quarterback out for the season, the Lions were able to scrape together 6 wins (7 if you count that Johnson touchdown in Chicago- and I do), which is Detroit's second highest win total since 1999. This has earned the Lions the 13th pick in the draft, which allows a little breathing space which is needed since the first overall picks the last couple years is starting to really add up.

The offensive skilled positions are pretty much set. Megatron and Nate Burleson both had good years in 2010 and they should only improve in 2010. Adding Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler which the Lions like to run out of a double tight end set adds two more capable receivers and much needed extra protection on the line. The offensive line does need some help, especially on the right side, but again, being able to have two tight ends in to help block makes life a little easier on the quarterback and the running game. Finally, while the Maurice Morris/ Jahvid Best tandem could use some improving, there are many more needs on the other side of the ball that will help bring the Lions up to a contender’s status.

The defense is another story. The defensive line, I would dare to say, is one of the best in the league. Suh had 10 sacks last year as an interior lineman and consistently demanded a double team freeing up Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, and Corey Williams who combined for another 14 sacks. Pressure was constant on opposing quarterbacks and this caused many rushed passes- which was needed to help compensate for the abysmal secondary.

Any type of screen play, quick pass, or run that made it past the front four went for big yards and typically demanded team tackling since no one player could bring anyone down themselves. Detroit's defense allowed the 8th highest completion percentage, allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 64% of their passes. Quarterbacks also averaged a QB rating of 89.2 against this dreadful defense. At the same time, the defense also only had 14 interceptions this season, one of them being by Donkey Kong, so 13 interceptions by the secondary in 16 games needs to be improved upon. Plus, the NFL rankings and statistics do not even begin to show how bad this secondary is, it is just one of those teams you have to watch to fully appreciate the awfulness.

The back seven was atrocious in 2010 so the Lions are in desperate need of a linebacker, safety, or cornerback. According to Scout's Inc, the best value picks in this area are all defensive lineman or wide receivers- none of which the Lions badly need. Therefore, the best pick available for the Lions is UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers. For the next few rounds the Lions should address their offensive line and secondary needs.

Lions' Needs:

- Linebackers

While showing some signs of competence, the linebacker core could not hold their own against lineman or running backs. For this team to become legitimate contenders, an upgrade is necessary.

- Cornerbacks

Again, the pass defense is in the bottom 3rd in the league, and this is in a division that is hard to pass in come November. The defensive secondary needs a serious upgrade.

- Offensive Linemen

Jeff Backus was unanimously named the toughest left tackle in the NFC North by his opposing defensive lineman in his division. Unfortunately, his counterparts on the right side of the line are the reason the Lions are known as the “laydowns”.

- Quarterback

Many people think that Stafford’s career is done before it’s even started. I remain on the fence. While he has missed a significant amount of games, it is due to two unrelated injuries and the Lions have too much money invested in him to give up this year. However, if he does not start at least 14 games next season, Andrew Luck may be looking at a career in Detroit.

To end a positive note, it finally looks like our Pontiac pussycats are finally turning back into the Lions that dominated the league in the 50’s.

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- Nate Solder (Colorado)

The Antonio Cromartie Of Alley-Oops

The NBA court is 94 feet long. So lets call this a 90 foot bomb. Eat your heart out Tom Brady, theres a new playa in town

Stolen Goods: Comparing The Forecasting Systems (2007-2010)

Tom Tango, courtesy of Brian Cartwright's tedious annual projection cataloging, just analyzed the various popular projections systems out there for accuracy in various capacities (best at forecasting overall, best at forecasting rookies, etc.). The results are quite interesting. CHONE, my forecaster of choice over the past few seasons, faired the best overall, while Oliver came in a close second, while also being the best system for forecasting rookie hitters. PECOTA was the weakest overall, thanks to its horrible 2009 showing, but was on par with ZiPS otherwise (yet another great reason not to pay for PECOTA -- ZiPS is free).

With CHONE defunct now (Sean Smith, the creator, works for a major league front office these days), Oliver would seem to reign supreme as the best available forecaster on the market. Though all of these systems are generally interchangeable overall, Oliver does the best at forecasting young players based on minor league production, which gives it a clear advantage over the rest of the systems. As Tango notes, players with higher sample sizes of major league production tend to have the most similar projections between systems.

You can purchase access to Oliver via THT Forecasts for $14.95 for the entire 2011 season. I personally use Oliver and can attest to its awesomeness, but if you do not believe me, just click the link to Tom Tango's blog (above) and read about its accuracy for yourself.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #12- Minnesota Vikings


We're going to begin just as soon as I text my penis to you.

Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)

OK, come on! You can't talk about a team Brett Favre just "retired" on and not make Favre references!

Before I begin discussing the Vikings drafting strategy, I first need to discuss free agency. Currently, the Minnesota Vikings have three of the top 25 free agents this season which includes stud wide receiver Sidney Rice, defensive end Ray Edwards, and Sexy-Rexy-2010-Pro-Bowler LB Chad Greenway. Not to mention the gaping hole they have at quarterback (because call me I sucker I believe Favre will actually stay retired).

However, because not only do I not know what the Vikings actually plan on doing with their players or their cap room situation or anything like that, I'm going to assume that they re-sign their three free agents. I am also going under the assumption that they will trade for Kevin Kolb. I can't remember the last time an initial trade report by ESPN actually came true and now there are reports that the Arizona Cardinals are interested in Kolb (as they rightfully should be). But for right now, I will assume Kolb goes to Minnesota. Lastly, I'm going to assume Kolb will cost the Vikings a second round draft pick, not a first one.

Obviously, I made a lot of assumptions and probably not a one will come true, but because of the huge uncertainty surrounding this organization, assumptions must be made if I am to speculate on how the team handles the draft.

But for right now, let's switch to certainties. The Minnesota Vikings have THE BEST running back in the game in Adrian Peterson, two stud wide receivers in Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, and an above average tight end in Visanthe Shiancoe. Last year, Minnesota had the 11th best run blocking offensive line and the 19th best pass blocking offensive line. The strength of their line was the entire left side of it to complement a piss poor right side.

On defense, the team still has one of the best pass rushers in the game (even though his statistics didn't show it in 2010) in Jared Allen and probably the most underrated defensive end in Ray Edwards. The Williams brothers (Pat and Kevin- note: not ACTUAL brothers) anchor the middle of that defensive line, but Pat is currently 38 years old and Kevin is 30. Both still great talents but it wouldn't hurt to start drafting replacements so you don't screw yourself a few years down the line when they do actually break down/ retire.

The back seven starts to get a bit shaky. While I'm a big fan of linebacker Chad Greenway, the other two linebackers around him could easily be improved. Last year, according to Advanced NFL Stats, the Vikings had the 19th best (33 year old Antoine Winfield) and 75th best (youngster Asher Allen) corenerbacks. To put that into even better perspective, the Green Bay Packers had two of the top three corners (Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson) and the Chicago Bears had two of the top 7 (DJ Moore and Charles Tillman) cornerbacks. Minnesota's top two safeties ranked 57 (Madieau Williams) and 63 (Husian Abdullah). To say the Vikings need secondary help is an understatement.

Just to give the Vikings SOME credit, they do have an elite kick returner in 2009 rookie of the year and pro bowler Percy Harvin. Historically (like the past three to five years) Minnesota has had bad specials teams, but that's mainly because of blocking issues which is best addressed via coaching and absurd to do via the draft.

Ideally it would be best for the Vikings to draft a safety or cornerback but the best corner back still left in the draft is Aaron Williams out of Texas which neither Mel Kiper Jr nor Scouts Inc rank as a first round draft pick. The Vikings need defensive back field help but it is best for them to address it later in the draft or via free agency. Sure, it's a giant blow (based off of my assumption) that they do not have a second round draft pick, but it would be an even bigger blow to pass over the great talent they have at their disposal just to help a hole in the team.

The best available player on Mel Kiper's Big Board is Colorado's offensive tackle Nate Solder and the best according to Todd McShay is Illinois defensive tackle Corey Luiget. Not only does Mel Kiper not have Luiget as a first round draft pick, he doesn't have the Fighting Illini as the next best defensive tackle available. On the other hand, McShay's next best available after Luiget is Solder.

As I mentioned earlier, the Vikings do need a defensive tackle but you can never go wrong with an elite offensive lineman. NEVER. So I think the safe choice and a great choice for Minnesota is to draft Nate Solder and to address their secondary needs later in the draft.

Viking's Needs:

- Quarterback

- Defensive Backs

- Linebacker

- Offensive Line

The Best And Worst Video Of The Day


Stolen Goods: Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects

Royals Review has a great article up cataloging the success rates of the top 100 prospects from Baseball America from 1990-2003. The whole article is worth a full read and incredibly interesting, but here are the highlights of the results:




Truly great stuff. Always good to reaffirm the notion that the attrition rates on pitchers are much higher (i.e., invest in position players).

2011 Draft Special: Pick #11- Houston Texans


Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)

I don't need to do any research, I know what the Texans problems were in 2010: their defensive secondary. Houston was third in the league in total yards given up, first in the league in passing yards given up but only 20th in the league in rushing yards given up. The Texans were also 4th overall in total points given up. According to Football Outsiders the Texans had the worst passing defense and the 24th best rushing defense. The Texans were the 27th best team defending opposing number one wide receivers, the 29th best team defending opposing number two receivers, third to worst team defending opposing tight ends, and the worst team defending RB's who caught the ball. This passing defense was bad.

However, this team doesn't just have some good defensive parts, they have some great defensive parts. First overall selection Mario Williams is one of the best defensive ends in the game. Linebacker Brian Cushing is a beast among men (even without steroids) and defensive tackle Amobi Okoye is only 23 years old but has been in the league four years and is a first round talent. Plus they have former defensive Rookie of the Year LB DeMeco Ryans. This defense just doesn't have some nice, complementary pieces, they have some amazing defensive pieces that you can build a franchise around. But the one thing the aforementioned players have in common: they do not play in the secondary. The Texans lost CB Duante Robinson to free agency in the offseason and boy howdy did that defense suffer.

However, this is a completely correctable problem. The first step is to hire a great defensive coordinator which they did in Wade Phillips. The second is to draft a defensive back. The best available DB is cornerback Jimmy Smith out of Colorado. While Mel Kiper doesn't put Smith in his top 25, Scout's Inc ranks Smith as the 10th best prospect and Kiper has Smith ranked as the third best corner behind Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara.

This team has some franchise parts on offense as well. They have the best wide receiver in the game in Andre Johnson, they have one of the best running backs in the game, a guy who can catch the ball very well and run 25+ times a game in Arian Foster, they have a great quarterback in Matt Schaub and a top five tight end in Owen Daniels. This offense is stacked at its skill positions.

Last year Houston had the fourth best run blocking offensive line and the 12th best passing offensive line. They had the best blocking center, the 10th best blocking right guard and the 12th best left guard. Their biggest weakness on the offensive line was in one position you really need, left tackle, which ranked 20th.

With all these great players in key positions it's baffling that the Texans did so poorly. I believe the main reason is that Gary Kubiak is not that good of a head coach. If he's the one responsible for drafting all these great players that he gets a lot of credit in my book. But when a team that's as talented as the Texans are performs as poorly as they have been, then I think the coach is to blame.

In the next few rounds I think the Texans should look at receivers to help compliment Andre Johnson/ an electric kick returner to help their 27th rank kickoff average and of course some more defensive backs.

Oh, and in case you missed it like the the fact James Woods was the villain in Aquaman because things went by so fast, the Texans will be drafting Smith.

Texan's Needs:

- Defensive Backs

They need SOMETHING to help that putrid secondary

- Wide Receivers/ Kick Returner

Don't settle for Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter

- Offensive Lineman

You can never have enough quality offensive lineman

2011 Draft Special: Pick #10- Washington Redskins


Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)

Redskins have the best fantasy team ever! If there was ever proof that you need chemistry along with talent to actually win football games, then Dan Snyder's Washington team is your Exhibit A. Although, their talent evaluations aren't spot on either. This team really needs to stop pouncing at every single free agent that hits the market like a horny high school boy that pounces at every girl that winks at him- even the uggos. As bad as this team was in 2011, this team looks like it's just going to get worse over the years.

We're going to mix things up a bit and start with the defensive side first. They have some great contributors including middle linebacker London Flecther, defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, safety LaRon Landry and linebacker Brian Orakpo. Yes, I purposefully left CB DeAngelo Hall off of that list because he's awful, but we'll get to him in a second. Brian Orakpo is a great, young talent (he's only 24 years old) and he's already an elite pass rusher. I put him on par with Mario Williams and Julius Peppers. London Fletcher is a fantastic middle linebacker and is probably better than Brian Urlacher at this point in both men's careers. But the biggest problem is that he's 35 years old. Even if the Washington Redskins do draft defense well (and that's a big "if") by the time that defense gets good, Fletcher might not be. Albert Haynesworth is still a fantastic talent, but at this point in time, the Redskins need to release or trade the defensive tackle because no way that talent will ever perform in a Redskins uniform again.

And then we have DeAngelo Hall. I'm so upset that he keeps getting accolades. First a Pro Bowl birth and then the Pro Bowl MVP! Ack! What the hell! He's so bad that we here at Game Of Inches have an effect named after him: The DeAngelo Hall Effect. This is where a cornerback is so bad that opposing quarterbacks love to throw on him, but because he gets so many passes thrown his way he gets so many interception opportunities that he ends up with a lot of interceptions. As Jay Cutler said in 2010 after Hall picked the quarterback four times:
I've played against him before. There's no reason to shy away from him. I mean, that's hard for me to say, throwing four picks at a guy, but I'd still, if we had to play them tomorrow, I'd go at him every time, if we could.
Yeah, Hall is a bad corner and a bad player moving forward for this Redskins team.

According to Football Outsiders, the Washington Redskins had the 27th best pass defense and the 18th best rush defense.

Washington has some major holes to fill on offense. Let's be honest, when you think Rex Grossman is a better option than you're starting quarterback, then you need a new quarterback. However, the Redskins are pretty much stuck with Donovan McNabb. Not only did they gave up valuable draft picks but they are tied into a huge five year contract with the Syracuse alum.

While the Redskins don't have even close to an every down back with the aging Ryan Torrain and Clinton Portis or even with youngsters Keiland Williams and James Davis, it doesn't matter because head coach Mike Shanahan has the best zone blocking offensive line scheme ever that I could be the running back for the Redskins and gain 4 yards a carry every time I touched the rock. Plus, Shanahan takes the GOI view that running backs are as fungible as tic tacs.

Chris Cooley is a good tight end but as rookie TE's Tony Moeaki, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski proved in 2010, you can find better tight ends than Cooley very late in the draft. As far as wide receivers go, Santana Moss is fine, but he's 31 years old and already showing signs of decline from not the greatest talent to begin with. The receiver who plays across from Moss, Anthony Armstrong, looks really good and fast, but looks to be closer to Johnny Knox than Mike Williams.

Last year, Washington had the 22nd best run blocking and pass blocking offensive line (although I think the low run blocking ranking is because of the talent of the runners and not the talent of the guys blocking). There were some bright spots on this line but they had the second worst blocking center in 2010.

So what direction should the Redskins go? Every team needs an offensive lineman and yet so far none has been picked yet. There are some great defensive lineman like North Carolina's DE Robert Quinn still available that could help out the Redskins as well. The 'Skins are in desperate need of a center and Florida's Mike Pouncey (brother of Steeler's center Maurkice Pouncey) is still available but there are plenty of better and more talented offensive lineman still waiting to be picked.

Because the Redskins are a bad team, they should take the philosophy that other bad teams should take in drafts: draft the best and most talented player still standing. In this case, it's Robert Quinn. Mel Kiper has Quinn ranked 7th on his big board and Scout's Inc has Quinn ranked 9th. According to this mock draft, they both have Robert Quinn as the best available player left.

Redskins traded away their third round pick to New Orleans and their fourth round pick to Philadelphia so this year, even more than past years for them, they need to draft well at the top. I'm not quite sure who will be available for the Redskins in the second round but they need to take the same approach as they should take in the first round and draft, no matter the position, the best player available.

I've seen many mock drafts that have the Redskins drafting Cam Newton but considering the Cardinals, 49ers, Titans, Bills, and Bengals have (or could have) quarterback issues, I find it hard to believe that Newton will even be available to Washington.

Redskins' Needs:

- Quarterback

Donovan is done and Rex Grossman shouldn't even be in the league

- Defensive Lineman

- Defensive Back

- Wide Receiver

- Center

2011 Draft Special: Pick #9- Dallas Cowboys


Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)

The Dallas Cowboy were predicted to at least make the playoffs in 2010 and had ambitions to play the Superbowl in their home stadium. Well, look at how their season turned out. Wah wah, sad trombone. The problem with the Cowboys was not a lack of talent but a lack of caring. The team gave up on head coach Wade Phillips, didn't tackle as well or run as hard with Phillips as the head coach. Therefore, the Cowboys, for the purposes of the draft, are not a bad team. Dallas can focus taking players and positions that they need as opposed to be "forced" to take the best player available. Although that might be one in the same.

Let's look at the Cowboys offense. When the three Game Of Inches' football blog authors created their quarterback ranking all three of us put Tony Romo as the eighth best quarterback and really the last of the "elite" quarterbacks. A collar bone injury to Romo also hurt the Cowboys season but needless to say, they don't need to focus on their passing game. At the other end of the passing game, the Cowboys have a great set of receivers in Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Roy Williams as the teams number three guy. They also have a great tight end in Jason Witten.

The running game on the other hand is a little suspect. I know the team has three capable running backs in Marian Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice, but the team was middle of the pack in rushing yards- ranking 16th out of 32 in 2010. The problem is that this team doesn't have that back who can carry the ball 20-25 times a game. Marion Barber can get that tough one yard and has shown throughout the season to break off some greats yards, but can't be that every down back or even the first and second down back. Felix Jones is talented like nobody's business and is a darn good pass catcher, but I think he's just a guy who can only get 15 carries total a game. And Tashard Choice seems like just a complement guy/ a fill in guy if/when Barber or Jones gets injured. I think the offense (and eventually team overall) could improve if the team traded away both Barber and Jones for draft picks and took Alabama RB Mark Ingram here. But I think more realistically new head coach Jason Garrett can find a way to use the talent he has more effectively and efficiently.

Going back to Dez Bryant for a second, another overlooked position so far in this draft series as been the special teams. When you're a bad team, your special teams should be the last of your worries. Plus, the vast majority of your special teams come from back up players of your main positions anyways. But the one position you can draft is kick returner- which they got in Bryant last year.

Last year, the Cowboys had the 12th best run blocking offensive line and the 11th best pass blocking offensive line. Pretty good but always room for improvement. No one area of blocking on this line was all that impressive so any first round lineman is bound to be a better blocker than any current Cowboy, but the biggest hole in this line (no pun intended) was at left guard- which ranked 28th out of 32 in blocking.

On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has the 25th best run blocking defensive but the 10th best pass blocking. Now Football Outsiders doesn't separate defensive lineman from linebackers as long as they started the play on the defensive line. So with an elite linebacker like DeMarcus Ware and the effective Dallas 3-4 scheme they run, this high pass block ranking doesn't surprise me at all.

But the biggest flaw in Dallas' defense was in their secondary. They were the worst team in 2010 in defending their opponents number one receiver, fifth worst at defending their opponents number two receiver, and below average at defending their opponents other receivers. Former first round draft pick CB Michael Jenkins looked awful and his counterpart Terrence Newman didn't look much better- and their safeties were even worse.

Now, there are two basic ways to improve a secondary- especially one like Dallas that has talent on it. The most obvious way is to just replace the current players with even better players. But the other way and the way probably most feasible for the Cowboys, is to improve the defensive line and add players that send constant pressure to opposing quarterbacks which will have a domino effect back to the secondary. This current Dallas 3-4 scheme is extremely beatable with short screens and a solid rushing attack which will force DeMarcus Ware back into coverage. This then brings less pressure to opposing quarterbacks who in turn can scorch the bad Dallas secondary. However, a good pass defending defensive lineman allows the Cowboys to bring constant pressure with or without linebacker pressure. Of course if that defensive lineman is also a good at run blocking as well, then you have a win/win.

The choices for Dallas here is Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Darceus and North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn. Scouts Inc says Darceus is a fantastic pass rusher and a pretty darn good run blocker as well, but admits he needs improvement. They say Quinn is above average against the pass but just average against the run. Mel Kiper ranks Darceus as the fifth best player in this draft and Todd McShay have Darceus as the 7th. Both men, as well as myself, believe that Darceus is the better player therefore....

With the ninth pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Dallas Cowboys select.... Marcell Darceus. Defensive tackle. Alabama.

Later in this draft they should focus on improving their offensive line and secondary.

Cowboys' Needs:

- Run blocking linebackers

Guys like DeMarcus Ware is amazing but they need a Brian Urlacher/ London Fletcher type linebacker- a guy who have great speed and can make open field tackles.

-Safeties

Great safety play over the top will help Newman and Jenkins perform at the level they should

- Defensive Ends

Same reason the 'Boys should draft Darceus

Valuing Players With Your E.Y.E.S.

The following is taken from my latest article for The Hardball Times:

I have come to love the auction draft fantasy format. Tired of watching my targeted sleepers and studs go a few picks before my turn, sick of being entirely helpless and at the mercy of my fantasy provider's value rankings, I opted to work the free market in recent seasons.

The glory of auction is that every owner has a chance at every player. The auction format and bidding market equalize the stress of not having a top five pick in your league's snake draft, precluding you from one of the upper echelon elite players. Auction is not without its own stresses, however. The free market operates efficiently only when its participants are informed. Like the seller of an album of baseball cards who does not understand the value of a 1963 Topps Pete Rose card, an uninformed bidder is substantially less likely to profit on the open market.

Being informed requires more than knowing raw stats and having a player projection. Believing that Jay Bruce will hit .280 next season with 30 home runs, five to 10 stolen bases, and 85 runs and RBI is nice, but unless you know the league average player output, Bruce's projection is meaningless. Player valuation requires some appreciation of relative category weights and scarcity. To deal with this issue and weight player values, I have a methodology, which I explain below. I have also included a pricing guide applying this methodology to Oliver's 2011 preseason player projections as of Feb. 1.

First, three points that will inevitably arise:

My methodology, like any pricing guide, has an inherent limitation: the quality of the projection system. My methodology weights relative stat production, but if the projections are weak, then the pricing guide will inevitably be weak. For the purpose of this article, I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system from The Hardball Times to create a pricing guide. Oliver has proven to be a very reliable system, on par with ZiPS (not released in full yet) and CHONE (now defunct). You can access Oliver's statistical projections (and more) by subscribing to THT Forecasts.

Second, for the purposes of simplification, I analyze all hitters as utility players. Some people like to adjust their numbers to account for position, but I'd rather just index the top 20 players by position after I have my Z-Score totals and know how much actual value, unbiased by position, each player is going to provide.

Third, there are better and more accurate methodologies out there. One is readily available via THT Forecasts. Another system is one created by Tom Tango a few years back. I know that Zach Sanders (of Fangraphs) and some others are working on something very similar as well. What I present to you today is merely what I do on my own, which I hardly proclaim to be unique. I am certain that someone out there probably uses, and invented before me, this same methodology to value players.

In honor of Steve Phillips, who values baseball players with his eyes and heart, I have dubbed this system of dollar valuation the Expected Year's Evaluation Statistic, or E.Y.E.S. for short.

Step 1: Determining the size of the player pool


Determining the size of your expected active player pool (those players who will be on some player's team as either a starter or bench player) is essential because only a limited set of major league talent gets used in fantasy. This is true even of AL- and NL- only formats. Because not every player gets drafted, valuing players is a two-tiered process. First, you separate potential active roster talent from "the rest." Then, you evaluate the players in the pool. This will be explained in further detail below.

Before we can determine a potential player pool, we must determine an approximate depth for the pool. Let the number of teams in your league equal X. Let the total number of drafted hitters per team equal Y, and the total number of drafted pitchers per team equal Z. For the purposes of this analysis, I am going to use a 12-team league with one of each active infield position player (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B), one corner infielder (CI), one middle infielder (MI), five outfielders (OF), and one utility player (UTIL), for a total of 13 hitters per team. I am also going to use nine generic pitching slots. There is also the matter of the bench. I usually play in leagues with five bench spots, which will be spit three to two between hitters and pitchers. This gives us a grand total of 192 batters and 132 pitchers, for a total of 324 players.

Of course, the player pool is quite subjective and often much deeper than a consensus 324 players. In step 2, I deal with this problem, but 192 hitters and 132 pitchers will be our starting point.

Step 2: Calculating preliminary Z-Scores


A Z-Score sounds much more complex than it really is. Okay, maybe not, but Excel (or Open Office) makes Z-Score calculations easy. Simply put, a Z-Score measures how many standard deviations from the mean (either positively or negatively) a given statistic is. For our purposes, players with high Z-Scores will help you in a given statistical category. Players with a Z-Score of 0 will have a neutral effect. Players with Z-Scores below 0 will hurt you in a category. The greater (or lower) a Z-Score, the more of an impact, for better or worse, a given player will have for your fantasy team in a calculated category.

To fill out a player pool, I first calculate the Z-Scores for every player for each of the hitting and pitching categories. For hitters, I use only a pool of players expected to accrue a minimum of 400 plate appearances. I am sure there are a few fantasy-valuable players out there who will come to the plate fewer than 400 times this season, but they are few, so I have ignored them for this demonstration. Per Oliver's 2011 projections, the pool of hitters who are expected to have 400-plus plate appearances is 436 players deep. Among these 436, the mean batting average is .265, the mean home run total is 14.0, the mean stolen base total is 8.1, the mean runs total is 62.6 and the mean RBI total is 61.0. The standard deviations for these respective categories are .019, 7.9, 7.8, 11.6 and 17.1.

To calculate any given category's Z-Score for a player, you simply take the difference of that player's stat against the mean for that stat and divide it by the standard deviation. For instance, Albert Pujols is projected by Oliver to hit 43 home runs. To calculate Pujols' home run Z-Score (labeled Z-HR in my charts), we take the home run mean(14) and standard deviation (7.9) and use the following formula: (43-14)/7.9. If you plug that into your calculator, you will find that Pujols' Z-HR is 3.67.

Now do this for every player for every statistic, and when you are done, sum up each player's cumulative Z-Score. Then repeat this process for pitchers, using wins, saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. I also like to use K/9 for the purposes of evaluating pitchers.

By now, you have probably wondered how I plan to value rate stats. A .300 hitter is not nearly as valuable as a .290 hitter if the .300 hitter is getting two-thirds the playing time of the .290 hitter. To deal with this problem, I determined the average at-bat total for all players expected to accrue 400 or more plate appearances (468.8) and I multiplied the batting average Z-Score by the player's actual at-bats total divided by the league average at-bats total. This adjusts the Z-Scores for batting average to reflect playing time. I do something similar with innings pitched for pitchers.

Step 3: Distillation


Once we have a series of player Z-Score sums for batters and pitchers, we need to select the "cream of the crop" to represent the potential player pool. If you recall above, we determined that, at least for our example, our league would use 324 active players (192 batters and 132 pitchers). Accordingly, I begin by selecting the 192 batters and 132 pitchers with the highest Z-Score sums. These players should represent our best "all-around players" for drafting.

This is not the end of step 3, however. Fantasy teams are dynamically comprised and owners often draft one or two category guys to fill holes and to stream. To account for this, I then rank the residual player pool by categorical Z-Score. I then pull out any player with a Z-Score of 1.0 or higher in any fantasy category. I also add any remaining players who I think are "interesting" to my player pool, even if their categorical Z-Score is less than 1.0, as $1 buys to keep an eye out for. Not even the best projection systems gets every player right, and this element of player selection requires personal judgment. For instance, Oliver is incredibly bearish on Aaron Hill, who I like for 2011. His Z-Score sum is not within the top 192 and he does not have a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in any single category. Nonetheless, I added him to my player pool.

Doing this, I ended up with 235 hitters and 166 pitchers, for a grand total of 401 players. This seems reasonable.

Step 4: Calculating primary Z-Scores


Now that we have our pool of 401 players, we need to recalculate our Z-Scores to reflect the draft pool talent. If you want remotely reliable numbers for draft day, it is pointless to value player X against undrafted players. These 401 player represent the best of the fantasy crop, and accordingly, the means and standard deviations in each category between them will change. Among the 235 hitters in our example sample, for instance, the mean batting average jumps up to .272 (from .265), the mean home run total jumps to 17.2 (from 14.0), the mean stolen base total jumps to 10.6 (from 8.1), the mean runs total changes to 70.4 (from 62.6), and the RBI total bumps up to 69.1 (from 61.0). The standard deviations also change to 0.018, 8.8, 9.3, and 18.0, respectively. The average expected at-bat total also rises from 468.8 to 497.2.

Re-calculating and re-summing each player's Z-Score, we are left with the expected relative value weights of each player.

Step 5: Calculating dollar values


Once we have relatively weighted Z-Score sums for each player, we now need to determine each player's dollar value.

To calculate dollar values, we must determine the total amount of money in our fictional economy. Simply put, we need to determine how much money exists to be split among the players with positive Z-Scores (all players who are ultimately assigned Z-Scores below $1 will have their dollar values rounded up to $1). Using the standard $260/team budget, applied to our 12-team fictional league, we find an economy with $3,120 in it. In real life, you could barely buy a pimped-out MacBook pro with that money, but here you can buy CC Sabathia!. Alas, I digress.

Take this $3,120 total and divide it by the total Z-Score sum across all hitters and pitchers. The Z-Score sum from which to divide the economy value by should not include any players with negative Z-Scores; ignore these players for the sake of Z-Score valuation. Doing this will give you a rough dollar value estimate per Z-Score. Take this dollar value and then apply it to each player's Z-Score to get your estimated dollar value for that player.

Keep in mind that the minimum bid for any player is $1. Certain players in our draft pool, particularly the "one category" players (hitters or pitchers with a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in only a single category), have Z-Scores below 1.0. Other players probably have Z-Scores that, when multiplied by our Z-Score dollar value, have Z-Scores under $1. Because these players will actually cost you at least $1, all players with dollar values under $1 are rounded to $1.

And there you have it. That is how you can calculate dollar values (EYES) for auction on your own. Use your EYES (not your heart) on draft day! Empower yourself with information. Of course, you could also do none of this analysis, save yourself some time, and purchase a subscription to the substantially more accurate THT Forecasts, which has its own built-in pricing guide for Oliver. I guarantee you those numbers are much better than mine.