NFL Free Agency Thoughts. Part I.

Maybe this will be like History of the World and not have a Part II. Or maybe this will be like Kill Bill. Who knows. Either way, Part I is awesome.

Was it in the new CBA that 50% of your roster in 2010 was not allowed to be on your roster in 2011? I understand there was a lockout and everything but I can't remember an offseason being this crazy. Ever. Who isn't a free agent? Or got traded? Or flat out released?

New England Patriots

- Chad Ochocinco reminds me a lot of another disgruntled Cincinnati Bengals player who went to New England and transformed the Patriots offense- RB Corey Dillon. Both Dillon and Ochocinco were great players who got bad raps unfairly. Dillon, like Ochocinco, was just upset at being in Cincy and just wanted out. Maybe he shouldn't have created a fuss in the press but ultimately he got his wish- a trade and a playoff ring. But Corey Dillon was 29 and still in his prime when he got traded. Chad is currently 33 and has looked really bad in the past two seasons. Dillon was just injured in his last season in Ohio. What's Ochocinco's excuse? Although having the great Tom Brady can do wonders for a person's career.
- On a recent podcast, Cubsfan said he's rank Braylon Edwards a top 5 wide out in fantasy if he signed with New England. I assume he'd feel pretty strongly about Ochocinco as well. I still don't trust it and won't draft Ochocinco, but I'm risk averse. I"m sure he'll be the next Randy Moss.
- DT Albert Haynesworth has always had the talent to be a top 3 DT in the game since leaving Tennessee. Washington tends to do that to players though- bring out the crapiness in players (Although in Rex Grossman's case, there was nothing to bring out. It was already there). In Belichick we trust. However, I do find it strange that Haynesworth threw a stink when he was forced to play nose tackle in the 3-4 scheme under Shanahan. I really hope Albert knows the Pats play in a 3-4 scheme. Plus the Pats have one of, if not the best, nose tackles in game in Vince Wilfork. This moves seems really strange.
- The Pats mold for winning championships was always having the best offense and defensive lines, linebackers who were hungry and versatile enough to play in Belichick's scheme and Tom Brady to win on the very last drive because the team really wasn't that good throughout the first 3.75 quarters. Didn't the Patriots learn from Adalius Thomas! Paying for free agents will always backfire in your face!

Philadelphia Eagles

- Two years ago Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie was a top two cornerback. Last year he wasn't even close to the mediocrity that his cousin (Antonio Cromartie) was. Gotta think he'll be back to his top self playing next to Asante Samuel. Although he'll still be like his cousin was last year in the sense that quarterbacks will still be targeting him because he's the second best CB on his team. However, very few teams can have the privilege of having the caliber and talent of a guy like ARC as their *number two* corner.
- The sun will rise tomorrow. Bill Belichick will give the most boring press conferences in the world. And Michael Vick will get hurt in 2011. If it was just for draft picks, the Eagles shouldn't have traded QB Kevin Kolb because they will absolutely need him for games next season. However, you could not have passed up a deal like what Arizona gave them.
- DE Jason Babin was one of the best pass rushers (if not the best. How often do you think I can say that phrase in this post? My over/under is 5. I'm at 2 now) in the game in 2010. However, he was on his 5th team last year and had his break out season at age 31. This is also his second go-around with the Eagles. I don't trust him moving forward and thought that was a dumb move signing Babin by the normally smart Eagles.

Quarterbacks

- If Washington Redskins fans hated Donovan McNabb boy they are going to love Rex Grossman
- Kevin Kolb can hit the broad side of a barn. He can throw a ball into the ocean and it will actually hit water. Sounds easy right? Well it was something Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton could not do in 2010. Larry Fitzgerald is now a top ten fantasy wide out and will most likely go to the Pro Bowl in 2011. It looks like Early Doucet will play opposite of Fitzy which I don't like as much as if Steve Breaston was there. But hey, Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme went to a Superbowl and Pro Bowls together with less. (Less meaning Jake Delhomme was in the equation)
- McNabb and Christian Ponder both probably have the same skill set right now. McNabb's skill is declining while Ponder's skill is rising and right now they're meeting at the exact same spot. However, both suck and will suck long term. Have fun being in the cellar for the next couple of years Minnesota!
- Matt Hasselbeck will do his best Kerry Collins impression in Tennessee.
- Matt Leinart choose to stay in Houston as opposed to go to Seattle and be reunited with his college coach Pete Carrol. He claims he wanted to have a starting job and with Tavaris Jackson there that shot is lost. It makes sense because Matt Schaub is not even close to what Tavaris Jackson is. Matt Schuab wishes one day he could be Tavaris Jackson. Leinart had/has the talent to be a damn fine, if not great, starting quarterback (Three?). Instead he wants to be a perennial back up so he doesn't actually have to do shit and still gets to say to chicks that he's a professional football player to fuck them. It's a pussy-shit move on Leinart's part and of many in the storied career of the Heisman winner.
- In a post I wrote in February and re-wrote in last July, the best quarterback available this offseason is Kyle Orton. He has proven how good he is in both Chicago and Denver and can adapt to your system. I find it hard to believe that it's difficult to pry him away from Denver right now.

Chicago Bears

- This comes from a facebook status of a friend of mine:

Busy sports day! Getting rid of Maynard, Olsen, Manumaleuna, losing Daniel Manning, and possibly kreutz is not what worries me. What worries me is that many of the players that the Bears initially went after had no interest in the Bears. I think its time for the Bears to do a little Self-reflection and figure out why?

Well, we know why- the Bears are a shit organization right now filled with shit leadership going all the way to the top.
- I actually don't mind getting rid of Greg Olson, it's what we got back that upsets me. Once I saw him get full playing time I started to grow weary and disdainful of him. TBO ragged on me for that for the past two years. Apparently the rest of the league knew what I knew as he gets traded only for a 3rd round draft pick. That's a bit ridiculous.
- With Olson gone I don't know who Jay Cutler is going to have butt sex with now. Is he going to have secret trysts, Brokeback Mountain style, to North Carolina? Maybe breaking up with KC was premature.
- The Bears do not need Olin Kruetz. He's way past his prime and he's 34 years old. He has not been good for years and the Bears do not need him. Being in Chicago I keep hearing the Bears do. ESPN radio host here in Chicago Carmen DeFalco was upset because the Cardinals signed center Kyle Sendlein (???) and he was to be the fall back plan if Kruetz doesn't sign with us. The Bears can trot out right now as an offensive line this year- Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Roberto Garza, J'Marcus Webb, and Frank Omiyale and it will still be better than our porous O-line from last year because we have Carimi. Either Webb or Garza an play center just as well as Kruetz did the past few seasons. So can you.
- A sidenote to my previous point- the New York Giants just released center Shaun O'Hara and G Rich Seubert. Both would be upgrades over what Chicago has now. Center Jonathan Goodwin (formerly of New Orleans) is also still available. Plenty of O-lineman still out there for the Bears to get.
- There are plenty of great wide outs still left as well. The Bears will not get any of them. The Rams should get a few if they're smart.

I know there are many, many, many, many more free agent stuff to talk about but I had to delete the word "quick" from the title of my post because this mofo is like three hours long. If I have time maybe some thoughts on guys like Reggie Bush, Takeo Spikes, and Sidney Rice. But for another time.

Quarterback Solutions

Here is a post that I wrote on February 25th, 2011 that I think is applicable today
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While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.

The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.

That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.

Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.

But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades

LONG TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Kyle Orton
Current Team: Denver Broncos

I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.

The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.

I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.

Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.

2) Kevin Kolb
Current Team: Philadelphia Eagles

I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.

The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .

With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.

3) Vince Young
Current Team: Tennessee Titans

Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.

Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.

Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.

4) Matt Leinart
Current Team: Houston Texans

I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.

This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.

While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.

5) Drew Stanton
Current Team: Detroit Lions

It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.

6) Brady Quinn
Current Team: Denver Broncos

Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.

While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.

7) Caleb Hanie
Current Team: Chicago Bears

When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.

Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Carson Palmer
Current Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.

The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.

2) Ryan Fitzpatrick
Current Team: Buffalo Bills

Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.

With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.

3) Donovan McNabb
Current Team: Washington Redskins

I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.

Quarterback Solutions

While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.

The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.

That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.

Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.

But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades

LONG TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Kyle Orton
Current Team: Denver Broncos

I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.

The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.

I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.

Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.

2) Kevin Kolb
Current Team: Philadelphia Eagles

I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.

The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .

With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.

3) Vince Young
Current Team: Tennessee Titans

Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.

Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.

Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.

4) Matt Leinart
Current Team: Houston Texans

I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.

This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.

While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.

5) Drew Stanton
Current Team: Detroit Lions

It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.

6) Brady Quinn
Current Team: Denver Broncos

Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.

While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.

7) Caleb Hanie
Current Team: Chicago Bears

When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.

Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS

1) Carson Palmer
Current Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.

The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.

2) Ryan Fitzpatrick
Current Team: Buffalo Bills

Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.

With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.

3) Donovan McNabb
Current Team: Washington Redskins

I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.

Could Matt Leinart Be The Next Aaron Rodgers?

Let me start off by saying that I DO NOT truly believe that Leinart will be the next Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat, I am NOT saying Leinart, with 100% certainly, will be the next Aaron Rodgers. But if he did, it would not surprise me.

I was doing research for my QB rankings talent post and I came across this post I wrote in February of oh-ten where I said to not be down on Matt Leinart- at least not yet. I wrote this post before the 2010 pre-season and before the Arizona Cardinals cut Leinart from their team.

But I still think Leinart got an unfair rap.

First, let me discuss why I think Leinart had the potential to be the next Aaron Rodgers. Leinart's career resembled Rodger's a whole lot (before last week). First, Leinart was an elite prospect. Here was a guy, who had he come out the year he was eligible; the same year as Rodgers (and Alex Smith), he would have been the number one overall pick. There was some controversy and some flip-flopping when the 49ers had to choose between Rodgers and Smith. There would have been no doubt though that had Leinart been in that draft, the 49ers would have taken Matt Leinart over Smith. But Leinart chose to be dumb and stay at USC for another year for the sole purpose to take ballroom dancing, knock up his girlfriend, and lose to Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.

The next year, Leinart's 'stock dropped' when he went 10th overall to Arizona while his Rose Bowl counterpart Vince Young got drafted 3rd overall and combine superstar Jay Cutler got drafted 11th overall to Denver. Despite what you may think of Cutler and Young, both men are clear NFL starting quarterbacks who clearly deserve to start.

In Leinart's rookie year, starting 11 games, he sucked. But so does every other quarterback known to man. Now just because Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman sucked their rookie year does NOT suggest nor do I mean it to suggest that Leinart will be as good as these players, but it does mean that just because Leinart was bad in his first 11 games does not necessarily mean he will be bad throughout his entire career.

Like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart held a clipboard for his first few years being on the team and watched a future hall of fame quarterback do awesome things for their team and win many many games as a starter. So when Aaron Rodgers finally got a chance to start, it seemed like he learned a lot from watching his future hall of famer do well and in turn performed well himself. So when Kurt Warner retired, Leinart seemed poised to do the exact same thing.

Secondly, Leinart got a bad rap because Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I has the 'privilege' of watching Anderson play when the Browns played the Bears last year. During that game, the announcer said that one of the keys for the Browns to win that game was for Anderson to actually make good throws to his receivers. This seemed like a REALLY dumb thing for a commentator to say (because they key for any QB to do well and thus for any team to do well is for their QB to complete passes to their receivers) but the man was right. I saw SO many wide open receivers (i.e. a wide open Josh Cribbs) not be able to catch passes, even dink and dump passes, because Anderson was just so bad at being a QB.

Think about this, a lot of people are saying Matt Moore is a QB upgrade for the Panthers this year, Jake Delhomme is a QB upgrade for the Browns this year, but Derek Anderson deserves to start and stay on the team over Matt Leinart? Huh?

During this pre-season, everyone is saying Matt Leinart sucked. But from my perspective, it seems like it was just a few guys at ESPN saying so and now the whole world agrees with them because we blindly believe everything SportsCenter tells us.

During this pre-season Leinart had a better passer rating (104.6 to 73.1), completion percentage (78.6% to 58.9%), and average (7.95 to 6.00) to Derek Anderson. Last year, Anderson completed less than 50% of his passes (44.5%), was the 5th worst quarterback according to Football Outsiders and 3rd worst per individual play. Even during his breakout 2007 campaign, he completed less than 57% (56.5%) of his passes. (Having Butterfingers McGee Braylon Edwards didn't help that, but still). Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback.

On the 8.24.10 The B.S. Report with Bill Simmons podcast, Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz said that Matt Leinart is awesome against zone coverage defenses and bad against man to man coverage defenses throughout his career and Anderson being the exact opposite. (That's why Leinart had that amazing game against the mighty Chicago Bears in 2006). Schatz joked that the Cardinals should have a QB by committee and play Leinart and Anderson against defenses to their strengths.

Despite the unfortunate unrealism to Schatz' comments, the Cardinals should not have outright cut Matt Leinart. I truly believe they should have let Leinart start all 16 games and at least give him the opportunity to be worth his first round draft pick. And when Derek Anderson starts to be the worst QB in the league halfway through the season, Cardinal fans will be begging to have Leinart back.

Don't Be Down On Matt Leinart... Just Yet

With the recent retirement of Kurt Warner- there's a very good chance that former USC QB Matt Leinart will be the starting QB for the Arizona Cardinals this year. My roommate was mentioning how much Leinart sucks and how crappy the Cardinals are going to be in 2010. While having Leinart start next year will be a downgrade for Arizona, I'm not convinced that the statement "Matt Leinart sucks" in true.

Guess these QBs

QB A: first 16 GS, 57.1 Comp %, 6.5 YPA, 2.4 TD%, 3.4 INT%
QB B: first 16 GS: 56.7 Comp %, 6.5 YPA, 4.5 TD%, 4.9 INT%
QB C: first 11 GS: 52.9 Comp %, 6.0 YPA, 3.1 TD%, 6.1 INT%

OK, time's up, did you guess them? QB A is Matt Leinart, QB B is Peyton Manning, and QB C is Troy Aikman. Leinart has the better completion percentage, the best YPA, and the best INT% throughout his first 16 GS than the Hall of Fame Troy Aikman and the future greatest QB ever Peyton Manning

Now let me clarify, I am not saying that Leinart will be a hall of famer and a great like Manning and Aikman. I'm not even saying he will be good. That 2.4 TD% is really low and probably won't cut with his INT% being higher than his TD%.

But what I am saying is that Leinart needs to be given a solid chance before we truly judge his talent. Like most athletes, quarterbacks need time to develop. Very rarely do you see guys become studs in the league their rookie year and sustain it. Sure, it happens, but just because it doesn't happen, like with Leinart, doesn't mean the QB "sucks"

Take a look at Jay Cutler and Vince Young. Young, Leinart, and Cutler were all drafted around the same time in 2006. Both men improved (yes even Cutler) since there rookie season. But both guys have started more games and have gotten much more consistent playing time.

I don't mind the decision that Leinart will become a full time starter. I actually think he does possess the skills needed to become a really good QB- but he needs playing time and practice to get to the next level and develop.

So let's wait and see how Leinart performs consistently for the next couple of years before we see if he "sucks" or not