Bill Simmons has a theory that something like 70% of being an NFL quarterback is all mental. Do you have your head on straight? Do you have the intangibles to be an NFL quarterback? Good. I don't care if you can't throw for more than 15 yards, put on this helmet and go win some games young man!
I jest but I do think there is a lot of truth in this theory. I think in order to be an elite quarterback you not only need to physical skills to, you know, complete passes but also that drive in you to want the ball with four minutes left, you're down by five, to drive the ball downfield and score a touchdown. I think there's a certain "it factor" like guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning has that other quarterbacks just don't have.
There are some quarterbacks that do have these intangibles. A certain je nais se qua if you will. But they can't throw the ball. Then there are others who have all the physical skills in the world but will never be elite because they mentally aren't there. Here's my list of some current NFL quarterbacks that fall into these categories.
Mentally Awesome, But Can't Hit The Broad Side Of The Barn
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ)
Mike Lombardi said that if Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers were all getting in a car, everyone would throw Sanchez the keys and have him drive. He's that type of leader.
That being said, he can't throw worth a damn. Recently, we here at GOI ranked all active quarterbacks we would rather have that Sanchez. Myself and The 'Bright' One named 32 quarterbacks we would rather start for our team than Sanchez. As Nate Ravitz said on Fantasy Focus, he's a quarterback with accuracy issues. Not a good combination.
- Timmy Tebow (DEN)
Sure he may have God on his side along with a college style offense, but what he doesn't have is the talent to throw to his receivers. Denver recently won a game when Tebow only completed two passes. TWO! Throughout Tebow's career he has a 44.8 completion percentage. Even Rex Grossman could complete one pass out of every two.
The other week an acquaintance came up to me and said, "Did you know Tebow does not have a lot of interceptions?" to which I replied, "Well it's hard for any defender to intercept Tebow when he under/over throws his intended receiver on every pass."
But hey, all he does is win.
- Vince Young (PHI)
Tim Tebow, this is your future. Late game comebacks can cause you coast and be the toast of the town for a year or two but soon you'll be a career back up.
That being said, at one point in time I liked and was a big fan of Young's "intangibles". But lack of talent and being prone to turnovers will came back and hunt you. Always.
- Matt Ryan (ATL)
MATTY ICE!
Ryan is well respected in the league and absolutely deserves to be a starting quarterback (which is more than can be said about many names on this list) and he's known for coming up "clutch". He's known for being a great leader and helping his teams win games.
But I've got news for you- he is not a good quarterback. Let's go through Ryan's YPA the past three years.
2011: 13th
2010: 27th
2009: 21st
The vast majority of Ryan's career he has been mediocre at best. People criticize Flacco for not being able to win games and I think Ryan falls right in with in 2008 Draft-mate.
Can Hit The Barn and Hit It Hard, but They Just Don't Want To
- Matt Leinart (HOU)
Like Young, I once touted Matt Leinart (OK, what I really said is Leinart had the potential to be a great quarterback) but Leinart just wants to hold a clipboard.
During the summer, ESPN reported that then free agent Matt Leinart was going to sign with the Seattle Seahawks. Then the Seahawks signed Tarvaris Jackson and Leinart said to himself, nope, Jackson's too good. I need to stay here in Houston.
Leinart even stated that he wanted to be on a team in which he could be the starting quarterback. So he choose the Houston Texans over the Seattle Seahawks. Of course, Matt, that's the real reason. I guess now he gets his chance but he would have started all 10 games for the Seahawks had he chosen to go.
Also, when you're fucking a different chick each night and getting paid at least $400,000 to stand around for three hours once a week I guess it doesn't sound all that bad.
- Jay Cutler (CHI)
Jay Cutler was drafted one pick after Matt Leinart. (Also, I just realized, they both were in the same draft as Vince Young- who also happened to show up on this list. Just a coincidence.) Jay Cutler has amazing arm strength and throws one of the prettiest deep balls I have ever seen. He probably has the physical ability to make every throw. But that doesn't mean you need to attempt to make every throw and squeeze balls where they shouldn't be squeezed (haha Balls. Squeeze. Sorry, continue). Now I have seen a progression from Cutler during his tenure in Chicago and he was playing great during the Bears five game stretch here in 2011, but he's not even close to being mentally there. He has the physical talent to be an Aaron Rodgers but the reason he's in a class by himself underneath a lot of guys is because of his head.
- Tony Romo (DAL)
Tony Romo is known for coming up short in the clutch. I do believe that if he was playing in say Buffalo or Seattle that no one would notice but because he plays for the most popular team in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys, his mistakes are amplified. But with that being said, he had repeatedly messed up in the 4th quarter and on the very last play of the game over and over again. (Although, I would like like to point out for the record that at least Tony Romo has won more playoffs games than Matt Ryan).
I do not believe there is some inherent mental defect that Romo falter in the clutch and I think his situation is more like Alex Rodriguez in baseball. All Yankee fans complained about A-Rod because he couldn't play well during the playoffs. But then the Yankees won in 2009 and all was forgiven for A-Rod. Once Romo has one good playoff run all will be forgiven.
But for right now, Romo's career puts him on this list.
Showing posts with label Quarterback. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quarterback. Show all posts
The Ten Most Mobile Quarterbacks In The NFL
I can't tell you how many times one of my posts starts with, "I was having a conversation with a friend of mine and...". Well, I'm changing it up. This post did not start with that phrase. I'm being meta and having my post start with me talking about how I always start off my posts with that sentence. Let me tell you something, it's tough to think up fresh new sports ideas. Especially considering I spend my day watching SportsCenter and listening to The B.S. Report.
Anyways, a friend of mine blurted out the comment "Jay Cutler is not a good rushing quarterback". In his defense, he is a Lions fans and does not watch Cutler. He, like most football fans in America, only sees the interceptions Cutler's putting up and nothing else. I on the other hand have watched at least 95% of Cutler's game in Chicago and I can tell you that out of all his fault's, rushing is not one of them. I blurted back, "He's at least a top five QB rusher, maybe top ten." I didn't know off hand nor had I created a list to determine where Cutler ranks, but I knew Cutler was a good rushing quarterback. All I knew is that after three years seeing Cutler running away from pressure because his offensive line had more holes than a sieve, I knew he was a good rusher.
So where does Cutler rank among QB in terms of rushing?
I limited this this list with two caveats: 1) Is the quarterback starting for their team in Week Six / Will they start for their team in Week 7 because they are on a bye right now and 2) How good is that player right now. I will give you a sneak peak- Donovan McNabb is not on this list. He is one of the greatest QB rushers of all time but due to his age and decline of passing skills, he's terrible right now so I left him off.
10) Tarvaris Jackson (SEA)
Through five games in 2011 Jackson is fifth among quarterback in terms of rushing yards with 78 in order to go along with a rushing touchdown. Jackson has five career rushing touchdown and a career 4.5 yards per carry.
Jackson has the mobility to move and is often forced to move because he lacks the accuracy and passing skills needed to be a passing quarterback (a big factor I take into account) and because of this he lacks the ability to hit his receivers while on the move.
9) Jason Campbell (OAK)
Jason Campbell reminds me of an improved Tarvaris Jackson. Campbell has better rushing skills and better passing skills. Campbell will get into stretches where he's a really good passer and sink into long stretches where he just stinks- although this forces him to run more often.
Campbell ranks 9th this year with 44 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns (and Campbell actually has a top five running back on his team in Run DMC, which Jackson does not) and ranked 8th last year in terms of rushing yards with 222 and one rushing TD.
Campbell has 6 career rushing TDs and a career 4.9 YPC.
Campbell can actually makes plays on the run and can be accurate and throw long distances while on the move which is a big factor I take into account rather than just running a lot.
8) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
Fitzpatrick doesn't fit the mold of a prototypical rushing quarterback but can run and run effectively on any given play. Just because he doesn't run as much as say a Tarvaris Jackson does not mean he can't be just as effective as Jackson can.
Last year Fitzpatrick was fifth among quarterbacks in terms of rushing yards with 269. Fitzpatrick has barely run at all through five games in 2011 but that's because he has been so good through the air he doesn't need to run. As the scouting report on ESPN states:
All you do is have to watch Jay Cutler to see how good and mobile he is. As mentioned at the top of the post, Cutler is often scrambling because his line or members on the line are poor at blocking and thus he's forced out of the pocket. When Orlando Pace was with the Bears it seemed to be that every other play Cutler was forced to roll to his right (because his left tackle couldn't block a stationary bike) and make plays- and Cutler is above-average on those type of throws while on the run.
While the numbers do not really bear it out that Cutler is a runner, it is because he has a pass first mindset and only runs when he ABSOLUTELY needs to, and because Cutler is so cocky that he think he can make every single throw imaginable he rarely feels like he has to run.
6) Tim Tebow (DEN)
This selection was tricky. If you think Jay Cutler is a bad passing quarterback, look at Tebow's numbers (Under 50% completion percentage). I do not want this list to be full of QBs who tend to run a lot but do so because they are terrible passers, however Tebow has had an extremely small sample size throwing the ball and he's just been freaking amazing at running the ball that I moved him ahead of guys like Cutler and Fitzpatrick.
Last year, with only three starts, Timmy Tebow had 227 rushing yards (good for 7th in the NFL behind Cutler and ahead of Campbell and Big Ben) along with six rushing touchdowns. SIX! That rivaled only Michael Vick's nine rushing TDs as the most by a quarterback in 2010. With that kind of great rushing ability I had to put him this high. And this is just his floor.
As hinted at earlier, Tebow needs to prove himself to be a better passer and not pull an Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick in the sense of running first because he can't complete a throw. Like I said, anyone can run the ball but it takes a special skill to complete passes as a quarterback along with the great ability to run.
5) Josh Freeman (TB)
Last year Simmons' boy Joshy-Poo-Twinkle-Toes had the second most rushing yards of any quarterback with 364. Plus, what makes Freeman better than the rest was that he was effective at throwing the ball. He had 25 touchdowns (which was second best among the top 13 quarterback in terms of rushing yards) and only 6 interceptions. That's good for an outstanding 4.167 TD/INT ratio.
This year Freeman ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in terms of rushing yards with 106. He has six less than third place (Chad Henne) but 28 more than fifth place.
The only reason Freeman ranks so low is because of how great the other four are, not because how terrible Freeman is.
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
Newton ranks second right now this year in terms of rushing yards with 160 along with five rushing touchdowns. That's crazy. Newton has more rushing touchdowns than: Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, and Darren McFadden (just to name a few). Newton is such a great runner that his offensive coordinator said that Newton is his goal line back.
3) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
In terms of rushing Big Ben is the superior Jay Cutler. Roethlisberger is 6'5" and 240 and shifty as shit. He is probably the hardest quarterback to bring down. Ben may not be the best runner, but he's most certainly the extremely mobile. Like with Jay Cutler, watch Roethlisberger play football (especially this year considering how terrible his offensive line is). No matter who is coming after Big Ben, Roethlisberger can outmaneuver any defender coming his way.
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
What can't Aaron Rodgers do? Seriously. The dude's a beast. 'Nuff said.
1) Michael Vick (PHI)
Was their really any doubt in your mind?
Anyways, a friend of mine blurted out the comment "Jay Cutler is not a good rushing quarterback". In his defense, he is a Lions fans and does not watch Cutler. He, like most football fans in America, only sees the interceptions Cutler's putting up and nothing else. I on the other hand have watched at least 95% of Cutler's game in Chicago and I can tell you that out of all his fault's, rushing is not one of them. I blurted back, "He's at least a top five QB rusher, maybe top ten." I didn't know off hand nor had I created a list to determine where Cutler ranks, but I knew Cutler was a good rushing quarterback. All I knew is that after three years seeing Cutler running away from pressure because his offensive line had more holes than a sieve, I knew he was a good rusher.
So where does Cutler rank among QB in terms of rushing?
I limited this this list with two caveats: 1) Is the quarterback starting for their team in Week Six / Will they start for their team in Week 7 because they are on a bye right now and 2) How good is that player right now. I will give you a sneak peak- Donovan McNabb is not on this list. He is one of the greatest QB rushers of all time but due to his age and decline of passing skills, he's terrible right now so I left him off.
10) Tarvaris Jackson (SEA)
Through five games in 2011 Jackson is fifth among quarterback in terms of rushing yards with 78 in order to go along with a rushing touchdown. Jackson has five career rushing touchdown and a career 4.5 yards per carry.
Jackson has the mobility to move and is often forced to move because he lacks the accuracy and passing skills needed to be a passing quarterback (a big factor I take into account) and because of this he lacks the ability to hit his receivers while on the move.
9) Jason Campbell (OAK)
Jason Campbell reminds me of an improved Tarvaris Jackson. Campbell has better rushing skills and better passing skills. Campbell will get into stretches where he's a really good passer and sink into long stretches where he just stinks- although this forces him to run more often.
Campbell ranks 9th this year with 44 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns (and Campbell actually has a top five running back on his team in Run DMC, which Jackson does not) and ranked 8th last year in terms of rushing yards with 222 and one rushing TD.
Campbell has 6 career rushing TDs and a career 4.9 YPC.
Campbell can actually makes plays on the run and can be accurate and throw long distances while on the move which is a big factor I take into account rather than just running a lot.
8) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
Fitzpatrick doesn't fit the mold of a prototypical rushing quarterback but can run and run effectively on any given play. Just because he doesn't run as much as say a Tarvaris Jackson does not mean he can't be just as effective as Jackson can.
Last year Fitzpatrick was fifth among quarterbacks in terms of rushing yards with 269. Fitzpatrick has barely run at all through five games in 2011 but that's because he has been so good through the air he doesn't need to run. As the scouting report on ESPN states:
[Fitzpatrick] can improvise and move the chains with his legs but is best in the pocket7) Jay Cutler (CHI)
All you do is have to watch Jay Cutler to see how good and mobile he is. As mentioned at the top of the post, Cutler is often scrambling because his line or members on the line are poor at blocking and thus he's forced out of the pocket. When Orlando Pace was with the Bears it seemed to be that every other play Cutler was forced to roll to his right (because his left tackle couldn't block a stationary bike) and make plays- and Cutler is above-average on those type of throws while on the run.
While the numbers do not really bear it out that Cutler is a runner, it is because he has a pass first mindset and only runs when he ABSOLUTELY needs to, and because Cutler is so cocky that he think he can make every single throw imaginable he rarely feels like he has to run.
6) Tim Tebow (DEN)
This selection was tricky. If you think Jay Cutler is a bad passing quarterback, look at Tebow's numbers (Under 50% completion percentage). I do not want this list to be full of QBs who tend to run a lot but do so because they are terrible passers, however Tebow has had an extremely small sample size throwing the ball and he's just been freaking amazing at running the ball that I moved him ahead of guys like Cutler and Fitzpatrick.
Last year, with only three starts, Timmy Tebow had 227 rushing yards (good for 7th in the NFL behind Cutler and ahead of Campbell and Big Ben) along with six rushing touchdowns. SIX! That rivaled only Michael Vick's nine rushing TDs as the most by a quarterback in 2010. With that kind of great rushing ability I had to put him this high. And this is just his floor.
As hinted at earlier, Tebow needs to prove himself to be a better passer and not pull an Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick in the sense of running first because he can't complete a throw. Like I said, anyone can run the ball but it takes a special skill to complete passes as a quarterback along with the great ability to run.
5) Josh Freeman (TB)
Last year Simmons' boy Joshy-Poo-Twinkle-Toes had the second most rushing yards of any quarterback with 364. Plus, what makes Freeman better than the rest was that he was effective at throwing the ball. He had 25 touchdowns (which was second best among the top 13 quarterback in terms of rushing yards) and only 6 interceptions. That's good for an outstanding 4.167 TD/INT ratio.
This year Freeman ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in terms of rushing yards with 106. He has six less than third place (Chad Henne) but 28 more than fifth place.
The only reason Freeman ranks so low is because of how great the other four are, not because how terrible Freeman is.
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
Newton ranks second right now this year in terms of rushing yards with 160 along with five rushing touchdowns. That's crazy. Newton has more rushing touchdowns than: Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, and Darren McFadden (just to name a few). Newton is such a great runner that his offensive coordinator said that Newton is his goal line back.
3) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
In terms of rushing Big Ben is the superior Jay Cutler. Roethlisberger is 6'5" and 240 and shifty as shit. He is probably the hardest quarterback to bring down. Ben may not be the best runner, but he's most certainly the extremely mobile. Like with Jay Cutler, watch Roethlisberger play football (especially this year considering how terrible his offensive line is). No matter who is coming after Big Ben, Roethlisberger can outmaneuver any defender coming his way.
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
What can't Aaron Rodgers do? Seriously. The dude's a beast. 'Nuff said.
1) Michael Vick (PHI)
Was their really any doubt in your mind?
NFL Free Agency Thoughts. Part I.
Maybe this will be like History of the World and not have a Part II. Or maybe this will be like Kill Bill. Who knows. Either way, Part I is awesome.
Was it in the new CBA that 50% of your roster in 2010 was not allowed to be on your roster in 2011? I understand there was a lockout and everything but I can't remember an offseason being this crazy. Ever. Who isn't a free agent? Or got traded? Or flat out released?
New England Patriots
- Chad Ochocinco reminds me a lot of another disgruntled Cincinnati Bengals player who went to New England and transformed the Patriots offense- RB Corey Dillon. Both Dillon and Ochocinco were great players who got bad raps unfairly. Dillon, like Ochocinco, was just upset at being in Cincy and just wanted out. Maybe he shouldn't have created a fuss in the press but ultimately he got his wish- a trade and a playoff ring. But Corey Dillon was 29 and still in his prime when he got traded. Chad is currently 33 and has looked really bad in the past two seasons. Dillon was just injured in his last season in Ohio. What's Ochocinco's excuse? Although having the great Tom Brady can do wonders for a person's career.
- On a recent podcast, Cubsfan said he's rank Braylon Edwards a top 5 wide out in fantasy if he signed with New England. I assume he'd feel pretty strongly about Ochocinco as well. I still don't trust it and won't draft Ochocinco, but I'm risk averse. I"m sure he'll be the next Randy Moss.
- DT Albert Haynesworth has always had the talent to be a top 3 DT in the game since leaving Tennessee. Washington tends to do that to players though- bring out the crapiness in players (Although in Rex Grossman's case, there was nothing to bring out. It was already there). In Belichick we trust. However, I do find it strange that Haynesworth threw a stink when he was forced to play nose tackle in the 3-4 scheme under Shanahan. I really hope Albert knows the Pats play in a 3-4 scheme. Plus the Pats have one of, if not the best, nose tackles in game in Vince Wilfork. This moves seems really strange.
- The Pats mold for winning championships was always having the best offense and defensive lines, linebackers who were hungry and versatile enough to play in Belichick's scheme and Tom Brady to win on the very last drive because the team really wasn't that good throughout the first 3.75 quarters. Didn't the Patriots learn from Adalius Thomas! Paying for free agents will always backfire in your face!
Philadelphia Eagles
- Two years ago Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie was a top two cornerback. Last year he wasn't even close to the mediocrity that his cousin (Antonio Cromartie) was. Gotta think he'll be back to his top self playing next to Asante Samuel. Although he'll still be like his cousin was last year in the sense that quarterbacks will still be targeting him because he's the second best CB on his team. However, very few teams can have the privilege of having the caliber and talent of a guy like ARC as their *number two* corner.
- The sun will rise tomorrow. Bill Belichick will give the most boring press conferences in the world. And Michael Vick will get hurt in 2011. If it was just for draft picks, the Eagles shouldn't have traded QB Kevin Kolb because they will absolutely need him for games next season. However, you could not have passed up a deal like what Arizona gave them.
- DE Jason Babin was one of the best pass rushers (if not the best. How often do you think I can say that phrase in this post? My over/under is 5. I'm at 2 now) in the game in 2010. However, he was on his 5th team last year and had his break out season at age 31. This is also his second go-around with the Eagles. I don't trust him moving forward and thought that was a dumb move signing Babin by the normally smart Eagles.
Quarterbacks
- If Washington Redskins fans hated Donovan McNabb boy they are going to love Rex Grossman
- Kevin Kolb can hit the broad side of a barn. He can throw a ball into the ocean and it will actually hit water. Sounds easy right? Well it was something Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton could not do in 2010. Larry Fitzgerald is now a top ten fantasy wide out and will most likely go to the Pro Bowl in 2011. It looks like Early Doucet will play opposite of Fitzy which I don't like as much as if Steve Breaston was there. But hey, Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme went to a Superbowl and Pro Bowls together with less. (Less meaning Jake Delhomme was in the equation)
- McNabb and Christian Ponder both probably have the same skill set right now. McNabb's skill is declining while Ponder's skill is rising and right now they're meeting at the exact same spot. However, both suck and will suck long term. Have fun being in the cellar for the next couple of years Minnesota!
- Matt Hasselbeck will do his best Kerry Collins impression in Tennessee.
- Matt Leinart choose to stay in Houston as opposed to go to Seattle and be reunited with his college coach Pete Carrol. He claims he wanted to have a starting job and with Tavaris Jackson there that shot is lost. It makes sense because Matt Schaub is not even close to what Tavaris Jackson is. Matt Schuab wishes one day he could be Tavaris Jackson. Leinart had/has the talent to be a damn fine, if not great, starting quarterback (Three?). Instead he wants to be a perennial back up so he doesn't actually have to do shit and still gets to say to chicks that he's a professional football player to fuck them. It's a pussy-shit move on Leinart's part and of many in the storied career of the Heisman winner.
- In a post I wrote in February and re-wrote in last July, the best quarterback available this offseason is Kyle Orton. He has proven how good he is in both Chicago and Denver and can adapt to your system. I find it hard to believe that it's difficult to pry him away from Denver right now.
Chicago Bears
- This comes from a facebook status of a friend of mine:
- I actually don't mind getting rid of Greg Olson, it's what we got back that upsets me. Once I saw him get full playing time I started to grow weary and disdainful of him. TBO ragged on me for that for the past two years. Apparently the rest of the league knew what I knew as he gets traded only for a 3rd round draft pick. That's a bit ridiculous.
- With Olson gone I don't know who Jay Cutler is going to have butt sex with now. Is he going to have secret trysts, Brokeback Mountain style, to North Carolina? Maybe breaking up with KC was premature.
- The Bears do not need Olin Kruetz. He's way past his prime and he's 34 years old. He has not been good for years and the Bears do not need him. Being in Chicago I keep hearing the Bears do. ESPN radio host here in Chicago Carmen DeFalco was upset because the Cardinals signed center Kyle Sendlein (???) and he was to be the fall back plan if Kruetz doesn't sign with us. The Bears can trot out right now as an offensive line this year- Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Roberto Garza, J'Marcus Webb, and Frank Omiyale and it will still be better than our porous O-line from last year because we have Carimi. Either Webb or Garza an play center just as well as Kruetz did the past few seasons. So can you.
- A sidenote to my previous point- the New York Giants just released center Shaun O'Hara and G Rich Seubert. Both would be upgrades over what Chicago has now. Center Jonathan Goodwin (formerly of New Orleans) is also still available. Plenty of O-lineman still out there for the Bears to get.
- There are plenty of great wide outs still left as well. The Bears will not get any of them. The Rams should get a few if they're smart.
I know there are many, many, many, many more free agent stuff to talk about but I had to delete the word "quick" from the title of my post because this mofo is like three hours long. If I have time maybe some thoughts on guys like Reggie Bush, Takeo Spikes, and Sidney Rice. But for another time.
Was it in the new CBA that 50% of your roster in 2010 was not allowed to be on your roster in 2011? I understand there was a lockout and everything but I can't remember an offseason being this crazy. Ever. Who isn't a free agent? Or got traded? Or flat out released?
New England Patriots
- Chad Ochocinco reminds me a lot of another disgruntled Cincinnati Bengals player who went to New England and transformed the Patriots offense- RB Corey Dillon. Both Dillon and Ochocinco were great players who got bad raps unfairly. Dillon, like Ochocinco, was just upset at being in Cincy and just wanted out. Maybe he shouldn't have created a fuss in the press but ultimately he got his wish- a trade and a playoff ring. But Corey Dillon was 29 and still in his prime when he got traded. Chad is currently 33 and has looked really bad in the past two seasons. Dillon was just injured in his last season in Ohio. What's Ochocinco's excuse? Although having the great Tom Brady can do wonders for a person's career.
- On a recent podcast, Cubsfan said he's rank Braylon Edwards a top 5 wide out in fantasy if he signed with New England. I assume he'd feel pretty strongly about Ochocinco as well. I still don't trust it and won't draft Ochocinco, but I'm risk averse. I"m sure he'll be the next Randy Moss.
- DT Albert Haynesworth has always had the talent to be a top 3 DT in the game since leaving Tennessee. Washington tends to do that to players though- bring out the crapiness in players (Although in Rex Grossman's case, there was nothing to bring out. It was already there). In Belichick we trust. However, I do find it strange that Haynesworth threw a stink when he was forced to play nose tackle in the 3-4 scheme under Shanahan. I really hope Albert knows the Pats play in a 3-4 scheme. Plus the Pats have one of, if not the best, nose tackles in game in Vince Wilfork. This moves seems really strange.
- The Pats mold for winning championships was always having the best offense and defensive lines, linebackers who were hungry and versatile enough to play in Belichick's scheme and Tom Brady to win on the very last drive because the team really wasn't that good throughout the first 3.75 quarters. Didn't the Patriots learn from Adalius Thomas! Paying for free agents will always backfire in your face!
Philadelphia Eagles
- Two years ago Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie was a top two cornerback. Last year he wasn't even close to the mediocrity that his cousin (Antonio Cromartie) was. Gotta think he'll be back to his top self playing next to Asante Samuel. Although he'll still be like his cousin was last year in the sense that quarterbacks will still be targeting him because he's the second best CB on his team. However, very few teams can have the privilege of having the caliber and talent of a guy like ARC as their *number two* corner.
- The sun will rise tomorrow. Bill Belichick will give the most boring press conferences in the world. And Michael Vick will get hurt in 2011. If it was just for draft picks, the Eagles shouldn't have traded QB Kevin Kolb because they will absolutely need him for games next season. However, you could not have passed up a deal like what Arizona gave them.
- DE Jason Babin was one of the best pass rushers (if not the best. How often do you think I can say that phrase in this post? My over/under is 5. I'm at 2 now) in the game in 2010. However, he was on his 5th team last year and had his break out season at age 31. This is also his second go-around with the Eagles. I don't trust him moving forward and thought that was a dumb move signing Babin by the normally smart Eagles.
Quarterbacks
- If Washington Redskins fans hated Donovan McNabb boy they are going to love Rex Grossman
- Kevin Kolb can hit the broad side of a barn. He can throw a ball into the ocean and it will actually hit water. Sounds easy right? Well it was something Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton could not do in 2010. Larry Fitzgerald is now a top ten fantasy wide out and will most likely go to the Pro Bowl in 2011. It looks like Early Doucet will play opposite of Fitzy which I don't like as much as if Steve Breaston was there. But hey, Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme went to a Superbowl and Pro Bowls together with less. (Less meaning Jake Delhomme was in the equation)
- McNabb and Christian Ponder both probably have the same skill set right now. McNabb's skill is declining while Ponder's skill is rising and right now they're meeting at the exact same spot. However, both suck and will suck long term. Have fun being in the cellar for the next couple of years Minnesota!
- Matt Hasselbeck will do his best Kerry Collins impression in Tennessee.
- Matt Leinart choose to stay in Houston as opposed to go to Seattle and be reunited with his college coach Pete Carrol. He claims he wanted to have a starting job and with Tavaris Jackson there that shot is lost. It makes sense because Matt Schaub is not even close to what Tavaris Jackson is. Matt Schuab wishes one day he could be Tavaris Jackson. Leinart had/has the talent to be a damn fine, if not great, starting quarterback (Three?). Instead he wants to be a perennial back up so he doesn't actually have to do shit and still gets to say to chicks that he's a professional football player to fuck them. It's a pussy-shit move on Leinart's part and of many in the storied career of the Heisman winner.
- In a post I wrote in February and re-wrote in last July, the best quarterback available this offseason is Kyle Orton. He has proven how good he is in both Chicago and Denver and can adapt to your system. I find it hard to believe that it's difficult to pry him away from Denver right now.
Chicago Bears
- This comes from a facebook status of a friend of mine:
Busy sports day! Getting rid of Maynard, Olsen, Manumaleuna, losing Daniel Manning, and possibly kreutz is not what worries me. What worries me is that many of the players that the Bears initially went after had no interest in the Bears. I think its time for the Bears to do a little Self-reflection and figure out why?Well, we know why- the Bears are a shit organization right now filled with shit leadership going all the way to the top.
- I actually don't mind getting rid of Greg Olson, it's what we got back that upsets me. Once I saw him get full playing time I started to grow weary and disdainful of him. TBO ragged on me for that for the past two years. Apparently the rest of the league knew what I knew as he gets traded only for a 3rd round draft pick. That's a bit ridiculous.
- With Olson gone I don't know who Jay Cutler is going to have butt sex with now. Is he going to have secret trysts, Brokeback Mountain style, to North Carolina? Maybe breaking up with KC was premature.
- The Bears do not need Olin Kruetz. He's way past his prime and he's 34 years old. He has not been good for years and the Bears do not need him. Being in Chicago I keep hearing the Bears do. ESPN radio host here in Chicago Carmen DeFalco was upset because the Cardinals signed center Kyle Sendlein (???) and he was to be the fall back plan if Kruetz doesn't sign with us. The Bears can trot out right now as an offensive line this year- Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Roberto Garza, J'Marcus Webb, and Frank Omiyale and it will still be better than our porous O-line from last year because we have Carimi. Either Webb or Garza an play center just as well as Kruetz did the past few seasons. So can you.
- A sidenote to my previous point- the New York Giants just released center Shaun O'Hara and G Rich Seubert. Both would be upgrades over what Chicago has now. Center Jonathan Goodwin (formerly of New Orleans) is also still available. Plenty of O-lineman still out there for the Bears to get.
- There are plenty of great wide outs still left as well. The Bears will not get any of them. The Rams should get a few if they're smart.
I know there are many, many, many, many more free agent stuff to talk about but I had to delete the word "quick" from the title of my post because this mofo is like three hours long. If I have time maybe some thoughts on guys like Reggie Bush, Takeo Spikes, and Sidney Rice. But for another time.
Quarterback Solutions
Here is a post that I wrote on February 25th, 2011 that I think is applicable today
________________________________________
While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.
The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.
That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.
Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.
But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Kyle Orton
Current Team: Denver Broncos
I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.
The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.
I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.
Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
2) Kevin Kolb
Current Team: Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.
The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .
With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
3) Vince Young
Current Team: Tennessee Titans
Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.
Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.
Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.
4) Matt Leinart
Current Team: Houston Texans
I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.
This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.
While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.
5) Drew Stanton
Current Team: Detroit Lions
It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.
6) Brady Quinn
Current Team: Denver Broncos
Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.
While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.
7) Caleb Hanie
Current Team: Chicago Bears
When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.
Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Carson Palmer
Current Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.
The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.
2) Ryan Fitzpatrick
Current Team: Buffalo Bills
Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.
With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.
3) Donovan McNabb
Current Team: Washington Redskins
I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.
________________________________________
While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.
The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.
That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.
Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.
But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Kyle OrtonCurrent Team: Denver Broncos
I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.
The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.
I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.
Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
2) Kevin KolbCurrent Team: Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.
The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .
With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
3) Vince YoungCurrent Team: Tennessee Titans
Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.
Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.
Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.
4) Matt LeinartCurrent Team: Houston Texans
I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.
This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.
While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.
5) Drew StantonCurrent Team: Detroit Lions
It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.
6) Brady QuinnCurrent Team: Denver Broncos
Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.
While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.
7) Caleb HanieCurrent Team: Chicago Bears
When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.
Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Carson PalmerCurrent Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.
The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.
2) Ryan FitzpatrickCurrent Team: Buffalo Bills
Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.
With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.
3) Donovan McNabbCurrent Team: Washington Redskins
I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.
Quarterback Solutions
While every year there are always NFL teams that have quarterback needs, it seems like this year more than any other year that there is an abundance of teams in need of a quarterback. While I am truly under the belief you do not need an elite quarterback if you have a great defense to win playoff games and championships, most teams do not have a great defense and thus a great quarterback becomes necessary.
The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.
That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.
Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.
But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Kyle Orton
Current Team: Denver Broncos
I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.
The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.
I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.
Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
2) Kevin Kolb
Current Team: Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.
The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .
With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
3) Vince Young
Current Team: Tennessee Titans
Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.
Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.
Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.
4) Matt Leinart
Current Team: Houston Texans
I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.
This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.
While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.
5) Drew Stanton
Current Team: Detroit Lions
It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.
6) Brady Quinn
Current Team: Denver Broncos
Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.
While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.
7) Caleb Hanie
Current Team: Chicago Bears
When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.
Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Carson Palmer
Current Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.
The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.
2) Ryan Fitzpatrick
Current Team: Buffalo Bills
Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.
With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.
3) Donovan McNabb
Current Team: Washington Redskins
I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.
The Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans (assuming they actually do release Vince Young once the NFL can actually go into free agency), Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings currently do not have a capable short term or long term quarterback solution on their roster. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Oakland Raiders have a fine short term solution but are in desperate need of a long term solution- especially considering these teams have a quarterback that is not very talented and/or are very late in their careers and are on the decline. The Carolina Panthers (Jimmy Claussen), New York Jets (Mark Sanchez) and Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) have young guys on their roster that currently look like wild cards. They could become a competent above average quarterback or could become a bust.
That's 12 teams that are in need or could possibly need a quarterback.
Three of these teams will draft Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Ryan Mallet (who I predict will all be drafted in the first round) eliminating this list down to 9 teams and the addition of Jake Locker and Andy Dalton to teams make those respective organizations have high hopes for the future.
But there's still a handful of teams that need a quarterback. So here's my list of available guys (or guys who I think can realistically become available) for teams via free agency or trades
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Kyle OrtonCurrent Team: Denver Broncos
I'm fully aware that new Broncos head coach recently stated that Kyle Orton is currently the team's #1 QB- but he did qualify that statement saying that Orton was the team's top guy when he competes in training camp. Orton, and rightfully so, is upset at his organization considering he wants to start, he has the talent to start, yet he's being benched for Tim Tebow. Kyle Orton has done nothing wrong, yet he feels like he's being punished. Denver is fully aware of disgruntled quarterbacks and there's no reason why the organization shouldn't trade him a la Jay Cutler in 2009.
The team drafted Tim Tebow in the first round last year. Granted, that selection was Josh McDaniels' pick and right now Denver is under the John Fox era. But for better or for worse this team is "stuck" with Tebow. Tebow had the highest selling jersey last year and there's no reason to think that this kid can't be the franchise. The logical step for Denver is to trade Orton and build the team around Tebow.
I put Orton as my number one "free agent choice" because he's proven to be a winner, proven to be good, and is only 28 years old. I saw Orton in his rookie year and he looked like the quintessential game manager. He let that elite defense do its thing and his job was just to not turn the ball over. And he did just that. But he's matured and progressed throughout his career. When Orton regained the starting position for the Bears three years later, he looked like a different quarterback. Not only was he not turning the ball over but he was leading his team down to scoring drives.
Orton can still develop some and he still does have some deficiencies- mainly a career QB completion percentage under 60.0% (58.1) and he still doesn't have that elite quality like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers where he can personally lead his team on essential scoring drives. However, I see no reason why he can't be like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
2) Kevin KolbCurrent Team: Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to try to keep these blurbs short and sweet from now on, but I had to express my love for Orton.
The problem with Kolb is that he's still an unknown. He only has 7 career starts and I won't even fully judge a quarterback after 16 straight starts. But Kolb was a high draft pick (second round), learned how to play under the tutelage of the Eagles system, and is only 27 years old. There's still plenty of time for him to develop into a great quarterback .
With the emergence of Michael Vick becoming an elite quarterback, the Eagles don't really need Kolb as much as they thought the did and not only is trading away Kolb more than a theoretical prediction (like with Orton) but I will guarantee you Kevin Kolb will be a starting quarterback for another team besides the Eagles once a new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
3) Vince YoungCurrent Team: Tennessee Titans
Vince Young just wins games. Sure, he has so many turnovers that it forces the opposition to be in the game, but he more than makes up for it with his game winning drives.
Vince Young has the talent to be great but I think there are two main obstacles in his way: turnovers and his maturity. Turnovers are a correctable problems but throughout Young's professional career he has a history of fumbling and forcing interceptions. This could be solved but I fear his immaturity could get in the way of just that. I'm still not 100% sold that Young truly has a maturity problem but when a coach like Jeff Fischer not only says so but leaves the team because of it, it absolutely raises some red flags about this guy.
Now I am operating under the assumption that the Titans will release Young but now with coach Fischer out of the picture and Young being owner Bud Adams' boy, I'm not so sure about this. However, if Young does get released, he's a great addition to another team and there's a chance that not only can another team help Young mature, but like when Cedric Benson got released, humble the man and help him reach his potential.
4) Matt LeinartCurrent Team: Houston Texans
I'm very upset at the Arizona Cardinals for putting me in the position to keep praising Matt Leinart over and over again. While I hated him at USC because of all the hype he received, he still has talent.
This is a kid who would have been the number one overall pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) had he left school early, a kid who was still a first round draft pick, and still learned the game from one of the greats in Kurt Warner. Now he does have maturity issues and I do think his football maturity has been stunted from not being able to be a consistent starter every week, but I still think he still has the potential to be a starter.
While the Houston Texans have not stated anything about trading Leinart nor does it seems any team has inquired about Leinart, I can easily foresee the USC grad pulling a Matt Schaub and going from a perennial back up to a legit starter.
5) Drew StantonCurrent Team: Detroit Lions
It looks very unlikely that the Lions will resign Stanton making him a free agent soon. Even though Stanton has the best win percentage out of any Lions quarterback the past few years, the team still has better options. Even though Matthew Stafford has the body of glass, he still looks like a really good quarterback and, if healthy, has the ceiling to be elite. Shaun Hill looked really good as a back up in Detroit and while I could see the potential that the team could either keep Stanton and release Shaun Hill (placing Hill #3 in the short term category below) or releasing both Hill and Stanton, if the Lions do release Stanton, I think the 26 year old is worth the shot. Hell, he looked good at the end of the season in 2010.
6) Brady QuinnCurrent Team: Denver Broncos
Similar to Matt Leinart- Quinn was a high draft pick who never got the chance to be a consistent starter. Say what you will about Charlie Weis but I think he's a damn fine offensive mind and knows his quarterbacks. I truly believe that neither Tom Brady nor Matt Cassel would be where they are today with Wies. So I believe a talented kid learning from Weis could be really good if given a starter job week after week.
While I do find it very hard to believe that Denver would release/trade both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn when they still have an unknown entity as the starting quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos organizations thinks *that* highly of Quinn and the guy still is only 26 years old with professional starting experience.
7) Caleb HanieCurrent Team: Chicago Bears
When you have workhorse, tough quarterback like Jay Cutler, you don't really need to worry about who your back up is (a. unless that back up is Todd Collins b. I don't want to hear your crap about why you think Cutler isn't tough c. I know Bears fans are still getting used to the prospect about the back up quarterback being irrelevant). Caleb Hanie really is expendable to the organization.
Even after watching Bears training camp practices, exhibition games, and their full regular season and playoffs, I still can't tell you a whole lot about the talent of Hanie, but based upon the limited playing time he's had and his performance in the NFC Championship game, I think he's worth a flyer if you're truly desperate for a quarterback.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
1) Carson PalmerCurrent Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer has talent- I think there's no denying that. But Palmer isn't the same quarterback since his knee surgery. Palmer is not only on the wrong side of 30 but he doesn't really look like the same QB. But with that being said, I can easily foresee Palmer looking like his old self with a new change of scenery.
The biggest hurdle to Palmer changing teams is the Bengals organization themselves. They love Palmer and don't want to trade him. If I was running the team I would jump at the best second round draft pick offer that came my way, but I think Palmer stays (and plays) in Cincinnati for the remainder of his contract.
2) Ryan FitzpatrickCurrent Team: Buffalo Bills
Even though Fitzpatrick is only 28 years old and had a damn fine season in 2010, the reason I put him in the short term category is for the same reason I don't think the Bills should draft a quarterback (or at least a QB who they plan to start in 2011) in the upcoming draft- FItzpatrick to me is a fill-in player. He is an average player who will not only won't hurt your team but will allow your organization to build up other essential positions before the team replaces the quarterback.
With Mel Kiper's latest draft update having Cam Newton going #3 overall to the Bills, Fitzpatrick becomes that much more expendable to the Bills organization and more suited for another starting gig somewhere else.
3) Donovan McNabbCurrent Team: Washington Redskins
I'm not 100& convinced McNabb is done but the biggest hurdle will not be McNabb's age or skill set but that awful contract the Redskins signed him to. Because of that I think Donovan stays a Redskin in 2011.
QB Rankings
This is the fourth part of Game Of Inches four part ranking series. You can read our Part Three Running Back rankings here, our Part Two Wide Receiver rankings here, and our Part One Tight End rankings here.
RULES
1) This is not a fantasy ranking, this is an actual skill set ranking.
2) We said that if we had to draft players to play one game tomorrow, who would we choose. Now past and future performance was taken into account as well, but we felt this was the best way to accurately rank skill set of current players.
3) We only ranked 32 players- one from each team. The group used our best judgment to determine which was the teams best player to rank.
4) This is assuming all players are 100% healthy
5) Because we are ranking based off of talent alone, we assumed every running back on our list was playing behind the best pass blocking offensive line and playing with the same wide receivers.
QUICK NOTES
- I probably have gone through at least ten different changes before I settled on this list
- I originally had Aaron Rodgers ranked 6th because I thought he couldn't come up in big games when his team needed him to. He proved me wrong.
- You can thank me for putting Tyler Thigpen as Miami's quarterback. In my head I knew I should have used Chad Henne but a) I truly think Thigpen is Miami's best quarterback and b) I really think Thigpen will be the Dolphins QB in 2011
- I originally had Matt Schaub ranked really low, but on a recent podcast Cubsfan convinced me to put him higher.
- Another ranking where Cubsfan disappoints me again with his low low Bears ranking. I mean, I'm down on Jay Cutler but you're telling me Joe Flacco and David Garrard would do better on this Chicago team!?
- Except for Cubsfan's absurd rankings of a few players (ie Cutler, Garrard), all three of our lists are essentially the same
And here... we... GO!
(click to enlarge)
RULES
1) This is not a fantasy ranking, this is an actual skill set ranking.
2) We said that if we had to draft players to play one game tomorrow, who would we choose. Now past and future performance was taken into account as well, but we felt this was the best way to accurately rank skill set of current players.
3) We only ranked 32 players- one from each team. The group used our best judgment to determine which was the teams best player to rank.
4) This is assuming all players are 100% healthy
5) Because we are ranking based off of talent alone, we assumed every running back on our list was playing behind the best pass blocking offensive line and playing with the same wide receivers.
QUICK NOTES
- I probably have gone through at least ten different changes before I settled on this list
- I originally had Aaron Rodgers ranked 6th because I thought he couldn't come up in big games when his team needed him to. He proved me wrong.
- You can thank me for putting Tyler Thigpen as Miami's quarterback. In my head I knew I should have used Chad Henne but a) I truly think Thigpen is Miami's best quarterback and b) I really think Thigpen will be the Dolphins QB in 2011
- I originally had Matt Schaub ranked really low, but on a recent podcast Cubsfan convinced me to put him higher.
- Another ranking where Cubsfan disappoints me again with his low low Bears ranking. I mean, I'm down on Jay Cutler but you're telling me Joe Flacco and David Garrard would do better on this Chicago team!?
- Except for Cubsfan's absurd rankings of a few players (ie Cutler, Garrard), all three of our lists are essentially the same
And here... we... GO!
(click to enlarge)
Matt Cassel vs. Mark Sanchez
EDITOR'S NOTE: This posts uses advanced statistics. For an explanation of DYAR and DVOA, click here. For an explanation of WPA, click here. For an explanation of EPA, click here.
During my box score tonight's, I keep claiming that Matt Cassel is the best former USC quarterback currently playing in the NFL. Over the past decade, Pete Carrol has produced many first round quarterbacks and top tiered, highly rated talent. Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez all led USC to great years and were all taken within the first 10 picks of their respected drafts. But despite all this, the best QB was one that didn't even play a snap in college: Matt Cassel.
Now some of the reason Cassel is the best USC QB is by default. Carson Palmer looked amazing early in his career and looked like he was fully worth the high draft pick. But after destroying his knee in a playoff game and taking a year off to recover, he just doesn't look like the same quarterback. And I will still defend Matt Leinart but I'm sad to say it looks like his development has been too stunted at this point for him to succeed. The only real chance Leinart ever got was in his rookie year and I will never judge how good a QB truly is in his rookie year- despite the flashed of greatness we have seen from Leinart.
But Mark Sanchez still has a shot. I saw many of his games early and he looked good. He looked like he was making great decisions and making many accurate passes, but his receivers have probably the worst hands in the league. Sure he makes a lot of short passes, well guess what, not everybody can be Peyton Manning. Plus, the few long bombs I've seen him throw (especially to Braylon Edwards) he's looked pretty darn good doing it.
I said I won't fully judge a QB based solely on his rookie season and I certainly will take the fact that Sanchez doesn't even have two full years under his belt. But what that being said, this is a debate on who's the best USC quarterback RIGHT NOW.
We'll start off with the basic statistics. In five less games from 2010 to 2009, Mark Sanchez has thrown 3 more TD passes (12 to 15) and 14 less interceptions (20 to 7). He's increased his TD% by 136% and decreased his INT% by a whopping 262%. He currently holds a 2.14 TD/INT ratio- and anything over 2/1 is commendable and respectable. Cassel's biggest problem, like Sanchez, last year was interception. He threw 16 touchdown, but just as many interceptions. In five less games Cassel has thrown two more touchdowns (16 to 18) and 12 less interceptions (16 to 4) from 2009 to 2010. Cassel currently is fourth in the league in INT% (considering he only has FOUR interceptions on the year) and has a 4.5 TD/INT ratio- more than double that of Sanchez.
Somewhat frustrating is Sanchez's completion percentage. You always like to see a QB improve as he plays more games and a critical part of a QB's game to develop is his completion percentage. While it did go up slightly (53.8 to 55.1), it's still not close to being ideal (at least 59-60%). Versus Cassel who also had a mediocre comp% last year (55%) and raise it up to where it should be this year (59%).
My initial thought for this was because Sanchez has some pretty bad receivers from a catch rate perspective. Edwards has a 51% and Holmes has a 54% of the year. But Dwayne Bowe also has a 54% catch rate. Jamaal Charles has a 71%, LT has a 68%, and Thomas Jones has a 56%. All pretty much the same across the main receivers and backs which tells me the completion percentage of the quarterbacks is mostly the result of the quarterbacks and not the receivers.
Currently, Cassel has more touchdowns, less interceptions, and a better: completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt than Sanchez with essentially the same sack percentage. Although Sanchez does have more yards. And more attempts.
Now onto the advanced stuff! We're getting kinky now. Matt Cassel is 13th in DYAR (essentially total value) and 14th in DVOA (essentially value per play). Sanchez is 18th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA. I think you can make your own conclusions about what this means. Where Sanchez does beat Cassel is in clutchiness. Sanchez has a 2.32 WPA and a 31.2 EPA versus Cassel's .75 WPA and 59.3 EPA.
Lastly, its helpful to look at offensive lines. Drastic differences in offensive line play can greatly affect a QB's play. You can chalk up a lot of bad stats to poor offensive line play. It's hard to throw the ball effectively when you have a guy in your face constantly. But luckily for us, Kansas City has the 9th ranked passing offensive line and the Jets have the 10th this year. Even more reason to think these players' numbers are the result of their true talent right now and not some other, outlier factors.
So who is currently the best USC QB playing the game? Matt Cassel. You can see this cat Cassel is a bad mother- shut your mouth! But I'm talking about Matt!
During my box score tonight's, I keep claiming that Matt Cassel is the best former USC quarterback currently playing in the NFL. Over the past decade, Pete Carrol has produced many first round quarterbacks and top tiered, highly rated talent. Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez all led USC to great years and were all taken within the first 10 picks of their respected drafts. But despite all this, the best QB was one that didn't even play a snap in college: Matt Cassel.
Now some of the reason Cassel is the best USC QB is by default. Carson Palmer looked amazing early in his career and looked like he was fully worth the high draft pick. But after destroying his knee in a playoff game and taking a year off to recover, he just doesn't look like the same quarterback. And I will still defend Matt Leinart but I'm sad to say it looks like his development has been too stunted at this point for him to succeed. The only real chance Leinart ever got was in his rookie year and I will never judge how good a QB truly is in his rookie year- despite the flashed of greatness we have seen from Leinart.
But Mark Sanchez still has a shot. I saw many of his games early and he looked good. He looked like he was making great decisions and making many accurate passes, but his receivers have probably the worst hands in the league. Sure he makes a lot of short passes, well guess what, not everybody can be Peyton Manning. Plus, the few long bombs I've seen him throw (especially to Braylon Edwards) he's looked pretty darn good doing it.
I said I won't fully judge a QB based solely on his rookie season and I certainly will take the fact that Sanchez doesn't even have two full years under his belt. But what that being said, this is a debate on who's the best USC quarterback RIGHT NOW.
We'll start off with the basic statistics. In five less games from 2010 to 2009, Mark Sanchez has thrown 3 more TD passes (12 to 15) and 14 less interceptions (20 to 7). He's increased his TD% by 136% and decreased his INT% by a whopping 262%. He currently holds a 2.14 TD/INT ratio- and anything over 2/1 is commendable and respectable. Cassel's biggest problem, like Sanchez, last year was interception. He threw 16 touchdown, but just as many interceptions. In five less games Cassel has thrown two more touchdowns (16 to 18) and 12 less interceptions (16 to 4) from 2009 to 2010. Cassel currently is fourth in the league in INT% (considering he only has FOUR interceptions on the year) and has a 4.5 TD/INT ratio- more than double that of Sanchez.
Somewhat frustrating is Sanchez's completion percentage. You always like to see a QB improve as he plays more games and a critical part of a QB's game to develop is his completion percentage. While it did go up slightly (53.8 to 55.1), it's still not close to being ideal (at least 59-60%). Versus Cassel who also had a mediocre comp% last year (55%) and raise it up to where it should be this year (59%).
My initial thought for this was because Sanchez has some pretty bad receivers from a catch rate perspective. Edwards has a 51% and Holmes has a 54% of the year. But Dwayne Bowe also has a 54% catch rate. Jamaal Charles has a 71%, LT has a 68%, and Thomas Jones has a 56%. All pretty much the same across the main receivers and backs which tells me the completion percentage of the quarterbacks is mostly the result of the quarterbacks and not the receivers.
Currently, Cassel has more touchdowns, less interceptions, and a better: completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt than Sanchez with essentially the same sack percentage. Although Sanchez does have more yards. And more attempts.
Now onto the advanced stuff! We're getting kinky now. Matt Cassel is 13th in DYAR (essentially total value) and 14th in DVOA (essentially value per play). Sanchez is 18th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA. I think you can make your own conclusions about what this means. Where Sanchez does beat Cassel is in clutchiness. Sanchez has a 2.32 WPA and a 31.2 EPA versus Cassel's .75 WPA and 59.3 EPA.
Lastly, its helpful to look at offensive lines. Drastic differences in offensive line play can greatly affect a QB's play. You can chalk up a lot of bad stats to poor offensive line play. It's hard to throw the ball effectively when you have a guy in your face constantly. But luckily for us, Kansas City has the 9th ranked passing offensive line and the Jets have the 10th this year. Even more reason to think these players' numbers are the result of their true talent right now and not some other, outlier factors.
So who is currently the best USC QB playing the game? Matt Cassel. You can see this cat Cassel is a bad mother- shut your mouth! But I'm talking about Matt!
TBO vs Sexy Rexy vs *Cubsfan* QB Ranking
Only difference is my ranking includes Matt Leinart and Sexy Rexy's does not, oh and the fact that SR's is completely wrong.
FJM: John Clayton's QB Rankings
Recently, ESPN's John Clayton ranked 33 quarterbacks in terms of talent. This list could not have made me more upset. Like a cliche sports blogger, I have to add my two cents and tell the author why he's a dumb mo fo and should never talk about sports ever again because he's the dumbest man alive. Plus it's a Saturday night so naturally this is the best thing on my list to do.
Here's Clayton's list
THE ELITE
1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Brett Favre
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Philip Rivers
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Matt Ryan
14. Matt Schaub
CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION
15. Jay Cutler
16. Kyle Orton
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Vince Young
19. Jason Campbell
20. David Garrard
21. Alex Smith
22. Matt Cassel
HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Chad Henne
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Byron Leftwich
28. Matt Leinart/ Derek Anderson
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Trent Edwards
32. Matt Moore
33. Jake Delhomme
SIDENOTE: This list was created before Leftwich got hurt and Leinart got cut
Now with most rankings you're never going to have someone agree with you on 100% of your picks. Everyone is always going to think that Person X should be above Person Y. So when I look at rankings I look at groupings. Sure, maybe I think Person X should be better than Person Y, but both people are top 10 and I think that's right. But even still, John Clayton, what are you thinking!?
- My hatred of Big Ben is well documented. While I hate rapists and liars (especially those that get away with it), I especially don't like Big Ben because he isn't asked to throw a whole lot so a decreased sample size shows up as good statistical numbers. And admittedly Roethlisberger proved me wrong last year by having a lot of attempts, a still good completion percentage all while leading the league in sacks. So he gets a bump up in my book. BUT NUMBER FOUR!? COME ON JC! I thought we were past the fact that Superbowl rings does not equal good quarterback play. Was your colleague Trent Dilfer looking over your shoulder when you wrote this?
- Aaron Rodgers is AT LEAST a top 5 quarterback. Part of what makes the greats put up big numbers is because of their offensive line. You put Joe Montana or Dan Marino in front of the most recent Detroit Lions offensive lines and they put Jay Cutler-esque numbers. But Aaron Rodgers put up Dan Marino-eqsue numbers with an awful O-line last year. (tied for first last year in sacks with 50 and had the third worst passing offensive line last year). In my heart (especially as a Bears fan) I can't put him ahead of Manning, Brady, and Brees, but I think my head and logic says Rodgers needs to be top 3.
-Matt Schaub is only 14! WHAT!? The only flaw throughout Schaub's entire career (besides the fact that I've heard many people call him 'Schwaub') is that he's injury prone. But this list is not about fantasy football (and seeing how McNabb is at #9, this list is clearly about talent) it's about how well does a QB perform on the field. Schaub was an elite prospect/back up in Atlanta and always performed well on the field with a Detroit Lions-esque offensive line. Top 10 talent.
-The absolute worst ranking on this list is Matt Ryan. No amount of capital letters can begin to describe how much Matt Ryan sucks. I know this isn't fantasy but when you're healthy and Carson Palmer and Jason Campbell outscore you- you suck.
-Speaking of Carson Palmer- he's 2009 L.T. done. He's I-just-finished-an-easy-final-and-now-I'm-turning-it-in done. This is a shame because he was so good early in his career and looked like the best quarterback to come out of USC in the past decade (although he's still looking like that with the week Matt Leinart is having). But he's looked really bad since his knee injury in the playoffs a few years back and has done nothing since to deserve the "elite" tag
-I understand the frustration and hatred with Jay Cutler, as a Bears fan I do. But Jesus Christ the hatred has gone way too far. Yes, leading the league in interceptions and having it not be close is a HUGE knock on you. But he still completed 60+ percent of his passes and threw more touchdowns than interceptions. And Cutler's INT% was such a statistical anomaly that I refuse to believe he repeats his 2009 campaign. But you wanna talk about guys with bad numbers, just look at Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.
-I'm glad Drew Brees is getting love. He's always been good where ever he's gone and he makes no name wide outs and 7th round draft picks stars. Plus, his kid is cute AS HELL.
- I love the talent of Philip Rivers. I heard he's the biggest douchebag and trash talker on the field but I think he's also a top 5 talent.
- Fuck Brett Favre. Oh, and Clayton's ranking of him sucks as well. At this stage in his career, Favre is barely a top 10 QB. But still light years better than Tavaris Jackson.
-As a real life player (because god forbid we talk about a player's real life value as opposed to his fantasy value), I like Vince Young. He loves to cough more than a man with lung cancer and emphysema, but the man just wins games. Normally, I'd say that how many wins a team has when a particular quarterback starts is just pure luck. But not with Vince Young. When his team is down by 5 in the fourth quarter (granted they are probably down because Young had 2 interceptions and a fumble in the game) Young just puts game winning drives together. It's just what he does. Plus, there's no stat for rushing for three yards on 3rd and 2- which is what Vince Young does. During a debate last week with my buddy, if I had to start a team today (real not fantasy) and get a QB for the next three years, which QB would I take: Young or Ryan? I took Young.
-Chad Henne is too low at 25 and Kevin Kolb is WAY too low at 24
-I think McNabb, E. Manning, and Orton are correctly placed/ right in the area they should be
Here's my list:
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Tony Romo
8. Brett Favre
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Jay Cutler
12. Eli Manning
13. Joe Flacco
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Vince Young
16. Kyle Orton
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Ryan
19. Chad Henne
20. Carson Palmer
21. David Garrard
22. Matt Cassel
23. Alex Smith
24. Sam Bradford
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Byron Leftwich
27. Matthew Stafford
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Moore
30. Jake Delhomme
31. Trent Edwards
32. Josh Freeman
33. Derek Anderson
Here's Clayton's list
THE ELITE
1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Brett Favre
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Philip Rivers
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Matt Ryan
14. Matt Schaub
CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION
15. Jay Cutler
16. Kyle Orton
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Vince Young
19. Jason Campbell
20. David Garrard
21. Alex Smith
22. Matt Cassel
HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Chad Henne
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Byron Leftwich
28. Matt Leinart/ Derek Anderson
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Trent Edwards
32. Matt Moore
33. Jake Delhomme
SIDENOTE: This list was created before Leftwich got hurt and Leinart got cut
Now with most rankings you're never going to have someone agree with you on 100% of your picks. Everyone is always going to think that Person X should be above Person Y. So when I look at rankings I look at groupings. Sure, maybe I think Person X should be better than Person Y, but both people are top 10 and I think that's right. But even still, John Clayton, what are you thinking!?
- My hatred of Big Ben is well documented. While I hate rapists and liars (especially those that get away with it), I especially don't like Big Ben because he isn't asked to throw a whole lot so a decreased sample size shows up as good statistical numbers. And admittedly Roethlisberger proved me wrong last year by having a lot of attempts, a still good completion percentage all while leading the league in sacks. So he gets a bump up in my book. BUT NUMBER FOUR!? COME ON JC! I thought we were past the fact that Superbowl rings does not equal good quarterback play. Was your colleague Trent Dilfer looking over your shoulder when you wrote this?
- Aaron Rodgers is AT LEAST a top 5 quarterback. Part of what makes the greats put up big numbers is because of their offensive line. You put Joe Montana or Dan Marino in front of the most recent Detroit Lions offensive lines and they put Jay Cutler-esque numbers. But Aaron Rodgers put up Dan Marino-eqsue numbers with an awful O-line last year. (tied for first last year in sacks with 50 and had the third worst passing offensive line last year). In my heart (especially as a Bears fan) I can't put him ahead of Manning, Brady, and Brees, but I think my head and logic says Rodgers needs to be top 3.
-Matt Schaub is only 14! WHAT!? The only flaw throughout Schaub's entire career (besides the fact that I've heard many people call him 'Schwaub') is that he's injury prone. But this list is not about fantasy football (and seeing how McNabb is at #9, this list is clearly about talent) it's about how well does a QB perform on the field. Schaub was an elite prospect/back up in Atlanta and always performed well on the field with a Detroit Lions-esque offensive line. Top 10 talent.
-The absolute worst ranking on this list is Matt Ryan. No amount of capital letters can begin to describe how much Matt Ryan sucks. I know this isn't fantasy but when you're healthy and Carson Palmer and Jason Campbell outscore you- you suck.
-Speaking of Carson Palmer- he's 2009 L.T. done. He's I-just-finished-an-easy-final-and-now-I'm-turning-it-in done. This is a shame because he was so good early in his career and looked like the best quarterback to come out of USC in the past decade (although he's still looking like that with the week Matt Leinart is having). But he's looked really bad since his knee injury in the playoffs a few years back and has done nothing since to deserve the "elite" tag
-I understand the frustration and hatred with Jay Cutler, as a Bears fan I do. But Jesus Christ the hatred has gone way too far. Yes, leading the league in interceptions and having it not be close is a HUGE knock on you. But he still completed 60+ percent of his passes and threw more touchdowns than interceptions. And Cutler's INT% was such a statistical anomaly that I refuse to believe he repeats his 2009 campaign. But you wanna talk about guys with bad numbers, just look at Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.
-I'm glad Drew Brees is getting love. He's always been good where ever he's gone and he makes no name wide outs and 7th round draft picks stars. Plus, his kid is cute AS HELL.
- I love the talent of Philip Rivers. I heard he's the biggest douchebag and trash talker on the field but I think he's also a top 5 talent.
- Fuck Brett Favre. Oh, and Clayton's ranking of him sucks as well. At this stage in his career, Favre is barely a top 10 QB. But still light years better than Tavaris Jackson.
-As a real life player (because god forbid we talk about a player's real life value as opposed to his fantasy value), I like Vince Young. He loves to cough more than a man with lung cancer and emphysema, but the man just wins games. Normally, I'd say that how many wins a team has when a particular quarterback starts is just pure luck. But not with Vince Young. When his team is down by 5 in the fourth quarter (granted they are probably down because Young had 2 interceptions and a fumble in the game) Young just puts game winning drives together. It's just what he does. Plus, there's no stat for rushing for three yards on 3rd and 2- which is what Vince Young does. During a debate last week with my buddy, if I had to start a team today (real not fantasy) and get a QB for the next three years, which QB would I take: Young or Ryan? I took Young.
-Chad Henne is too low at 25 and Kevin Kolb is WAY too low at 24
-I think McNabb, E. Manning, and Orton are correctly placed/ right in the area they should be
Here's my list:
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Tony Romo
8. Brett Favre
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Jay Cutler
12. Eli Manning
13. Joe Flacco
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Vince Young
16. Kyle Orton
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Ryan
19. Chad Henne
20. Carson Palmer
21. David Garrard
22. Matt Cassel
23. Alex Smith
24. Sam Bradford
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Byron Leftwich
27. Matthew Stafford
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Moore
30. Jake Delhomme
31. Trent Edwards
32. Josh Freeman
33. Derek Anderson
Sacks Have No Affect On A QBs Performance: A Statistical Correlation Between S/100 and a QB's Numbers
So I actually did some actual analysis. I've done posts in past showing you loyal viewers what seems to be a strong correlation between how many times a QB gets sacked per every 100 passing attempts and stats like YPA, TD/INT ratio, Completion Percentage, and Passer Rating. However, I actually did a scatter plot to determine what the exact correlation is between S/100 and these stats. First, I decided to study Brett Favre's career. I did this because I thought I would try to leave as many variables out as possible. Brett Favre is a great talent and he's had consistency throughout his entire career. He's also had a great sample size throughout his entire career which makes him, from a quantitative perspective, a great study. So if I wanted to study one individual player to help me with my study, I figured Favre was the best option. So here's data on how S/100 affected Favre's YPA, Comp%, TD/INT ratio, and Passer Rating:
Unfortunately, the correlation is essentially negligible between S/100 and all those stats. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .002; between S/100 and Comp% is .0008; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .018; and between S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .018. Correlation is between -1 and +1 and is the correlation is 0, that means there is no correlation whatsoever. Very rarely will any number be exactly zero, but the closer the correlation equals zero, the less likely the correlation exists. These numbers are so small, that is laments terms, by looking at Favre's numbers, there is no correlation between S/100 and a QB's performance.
But then I did a quick analysis on Jay Cutler's short career and the numbers looked somewhat different.
Again, there is very little correlation between S/100 and YPA and Passer Rating; however, there is a very strong correlation between S/100 and Comp% and Passer Rating. The R2 for Comp% is very strong for Cutler, being .453 and for TD/INT ratio being .225. There is a strong correlation for Comp% and a slightly strong correlation for TD/INT ratio.
I figured then that maybe studying Favre solely isn't the best idea. Maybe my initial approach was wrong? I want to study the correlation for how S/100 affect ALL QBs, and by just studying one, maybe isn't the best. Maybe one individual QB isn't the best way to determine how often a QB gets sacked affects every other QB. Maybe one QB is better than another when getting sacked. So I decided to look at all QBs last year that had a minimum of 415 passing attempts to see how S/100 affects a QBs performance. This gave me 21 QBs ranging from the great Peyton Manning and Phillips Rivers to the crappy Kerry Collins and Marc Bulger. Here's what I found:
Again, I was disappointed. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .125; between S/100 and Comp% is .049; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .162; and S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .172. The correlation is slightly stronger when analyzing all QBs as opposed to one, but the correlation is still fairly weak and essentially non-existent.
However, this research is not a total waste of time. Yes, overall, how often a QB gets sacked bears no relevance on how he performs. But that doesn't hold true on every individual QB. Some QBs, like Favre, it does not matter, and even on guys like Aaron Rodgers who gets sacked like crazy. However, on certain guys like Cutler, S/100 does not matter. And sometimes S/100 can show you how crappy certain guys are. Last year, Kerry Collins (min 415 attempts) had the 2nd least S/100, yet put up mediocre to awful numbers. So as a whole, S/100 shows no relevance, but on individual QBs, it may make a difference.
Unfortunately, the correlation is essentially negligible between S/100 and all those stats. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .002; between S/100 and Comp% is .0008; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .018; and between S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .018. Correlation is between -1 and +1 and is the correlation is 0, that means there is no correlation whatsoever. Very rarely will any number be exactly zero, but the closer the correlation equals zero, the less likely the correlation exists. These numbers are so small, that is laments terms, by looking at Favre's numbers, there is no correlation between S/100 and a QB's performance.
But then I did a quick analysis on Jay Cutler's short career and the numbers looked somewhat different.
Again, there is very little correlation between S/100 and YPA and Passer Rating; however, there is a very strong correlation between S/100 and Comp% and Passer Rating. The R2 for Comp% is very strong for Cutler, being .453 and for TD/INT ratio being .225. There is a strong correlation for Comp% and a slightly strong correlation for TD/INT ratio.
I figured then that maybe studying Favre solely isn't the best idea. Maybe my initial approach was wrong? I want to study the correlation for how S/100 affect ALL QBs, and by just studying one, maybe isn't the best. Maybe one individual QB isn't the best way to determine how often a QB gets sacked affects every other QB. Maybe one QB is better than another when getting sacked. So I decided to look at all QBs last year that had a minimum of 415 passing attempts to see how S/100 affects a QBs performance. This gave me 21 QBs ranging from the great Peyton Manning and Phillips Rivers to the crappy Kerry Collins and Marc Bulger. Here's what I found:
Again, I was disappointed. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .125; between S/100 and Comp% is .049; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .162; and S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .172. The correlation is slightly stronger when analyzing all QBs as opposed to one, but the correlation is still fairly weak and essentially non-existent.
However, this research is not a total waste of time. Yes, overall, how often a QB gets sacked bears no relevance on how he performs. But that doesn't hold true on every individual QB. Some QBs, like Favre, it does not matter, and even on guys like Aaron Rodgers who gets sacked like crazy. However, on certain guys like Cutler, S/100 does not matter. And sometimes S/100 can show you how crappy certain guys are. Last year, Kerry Collins (min 415 attempts) had the 2nd least S/100, yet put up mediocre to awful numbers. So as a whole, S/100 shows no relevance, but on individual QBs, it may make a difference.
Who Is The Best AFC QB?
Based upon the best statistic ever (hmm, sarcasism don't translate well on a blog) sacks per 100 passing attempts, I've decided to do a brief analysis of the great AFC QBs preemptively for my new poll.
S/100
Big Ben: 8.72
Philip Rivers: 6.23
Matt Schaub: 5.21
Tom Brady: 3.56
Peyton Manning: 2.06
YPA
Big Ben: 8.33
Peyton Manning: 8.17
Philip Rivers: 8.17
Matt Schaub: 8.10
Tom Brady: 7.76
Completion Percentage
Peyton Manning: 69.8
Big Ben: 68.9
Matt Schaub: 67.1
Tom Brady: 66.4
Philip Rivers: 63.2
Passer Rating:
Peyton Manning: 102.7
Tom Brady: 100.4
Matt Schaub: 98.9
Philip Rivers: 98.7
Big Ben: 98.6
TD/INT ratio:
Tom Brady: 3.33
Petyton Manning: 2.33
Philip Rivers: 2.83
Matt Schaub: 2.11
Big Ben: 1.70
So who is the best AFC QB? I don't think this one is clear. Peyton clearly takes advantage of his superior O-line but does the increase in sacks make guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger better than Manning? I don't know. But please, when you vote, take sacks and O-line into account.
S/100
Big Ben: 8.72
Philip Rivers: 6.23
Matt Schaub: 5.21
Tom Brady: 3.56
Peyton Manning: 2.06
YPA
Big Ben: 8.33
Peyton Manning: 8.17
Philip Rivers: 8.17
Matt Schaub: 8.10
Tom Brady: 7.76
Completion Percentage
Peyton Manning: 69.8
Big Ben: 68.9
Matt Schaub: 67.1
Tom Brady: 66.4
Philip Rivers: 63.2
Passer Rating:
Peyton Manning: 102.7
Tom Brady: 100.4
Matt Schaub: 98.9
Philip Rivers: 98.7
Big Ben: 98.6
TD/INT ratio:
Tom Brady: 3.33
Petyton Manning: 2.33
Philip Rivers: 2.83
Matt Schaub: 2.11
Big Ben: 1.70
So who is the best AFC QB? I don't think this one is clear. Peyton clearly takes advantage of his superior O-line but does the increase in sacks make guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger better than Manning? I don't know. But please, when you vote, take sacks and O-line into account.
How Do Sacks Affect a QBs Performance?
Here's some data I did from a recent post of how Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton have performed on new team with a new offensive line. I talked about the reason for the poor/better performance of these players is because of the new offensive line these players had. Now I would love to to a full on regression analysis/ correlation chart to prove truly how QB performance is based upon the O-line. Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor the knowhow. However, I thought I'd do some more analysis of players that have switched teams to see if my data still holds a little bit of water. I decided to do analysis on Brett Favre (both this year and last year), Chad Pennington (two years ago he was on the Jets and last year he was on the Dolphins), and Aaron Rodgers (Yes, he's been a Packer both years but is O-line is drastically different this year/ my outlier to again to show how awesome Rodgers is this year).
NOTE: S/100 = how many times the QB has been sacked per every 100 passing attempts and the (+/-) equals how often or how little the QB was sacked per every 100 attempts compared to the previous year. i.e. +2.00 S/100 means that that QB was sacked 2 more times this year than he was in the previous year per 100 passing attempts.
So here's what I did earlier:
Cassel (2009/2008)(+2.66 S/100)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09
Cutler (2009/ 2008)(+1.79 S/100)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56
Orton (2009/2008)(-1.41 S/100)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7
And some my new data:
Brett Favre (2008/2007) (+2.94 S/100)
YPA: -1.1
Completion Percentage: -0.8
Passer Rating: -14.7
TD/INT ratio: -0.87
Brett Favre (2009/2008) (-1.03 S/100)
YPA: +1.3
Completion Percentage: +4.0
Passer Rating: +31.1
TD/INT ratio: +6.0
Chad Pennington (2008/2006) (-1.14 S/100)
Pennington only had 260 passing attempts in 2007. He had 450+ in '06
YPA: +0.8
Completion Percentage: +2.9
Passer Rating: +14.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65
Aaron Rodgers (2009/2008) (+6.27 S/100)
YPA: +0.7
Completion Percentage: +1.2
Passer Rating: +8.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65
Analysis:
Take out Aaron Rodgers for a moment and what do you consistently notice? When a QB moves to a new team a thus gets sacked more, his major stats go down. When he moves to a new team and he gets sacked less, his major stats go up (the exception being Matt Cassel and his TD/INT ratio). I think this should come as no big surprise. When a QB is getting sacked more, that means the O-line is allowing more defenders to break penetration and getting to the QB more. And when the defense is getting to the QB more often, it makes the QBs job tougher and makes it harder for the QB to complete throws. This is a simple aspect of the game. Defenses tend to be better when they can get to the QB and offenses tend to be better when the O-line has great pass protection. This again just reinforces the extreme importance of an offensive line and how overrated people make out the QB position to be.
Now we move to Aaron Rodgers. He's not only one of the best QBs in the league right now, he's doing it with an AWFUL O-line. I mean they've been dreadful. Yes, they're injured, but awful nonetheless. Yes, despite this and in the face if statistical data, Rodgers puts up great numbers. Look at his S/100 spike. Out of the seven players, no spike has gone above or below 3.00. Yes, Rodgers S/100 has taken a huge hit this year; he's getting sacked over 12 times per every 100 passing attempt and is getting sacked over six times more per every 100 passing attempt than he was last year. But he's STILL improved. I don't think people realize what an amazing feat this is! (as shown by my crude poll ranking NFC QBs, I was the only one to vote for Rodgers).
So when you go talking trash about your QB, please take a look at his O-line before you judge.
NOTE: S/100 = how many times the QB has been sacked per every 100 passing attempts and the (+/-) equals how often or how little the QB was sacked per every 100 attempts compared to the previous year. i.e. +2.00 S/100 means that that QB was sacked 2 more times this year than he was in the previous year per 100 passing attempts.
So here's what I did earlier:
Cassel (2009/2008)(+2.66 S/100)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09
Cutler (2009/ 2008)(+1.79 S/100)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56
Orton (2009/2008)(-1.41 S/100)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7
And some my new data:
Brett Favre (2008/2007) (+2.94 S/100)
YPA: -1.1
Completion Percentage: -0.8
Passer Rating: -14.7
TD/INT ratio: -0.87
Brett Favre (2009/2008) (-1.03 S/100)
YPA: +1.3
Completion Percentage: +4.0
Passer Rating: +31.1
TD/INT ratio: +6.0
Chad Pennington (2008/2006) (-1.14 S/100)
Pennington only had 260 passing attempts in 2007. He had 450+ in '06
YPA: +0.8
Completion Percentage: +2.9
Passer Rating: +14.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65
Aaron Rodgers (2009/2008) (+6.27 S/100)
YPA: +0.7
Completion Percentage: +1.2
Passer Rating: +8.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65
Analysis:
Take out Aaron Rodgers for a moment and what do you consistently notice? When a QB moves to a new team a thus gets sacked more, his major stats go down. When he moves to a new team and he gets sacked less, his major stats go up (the exception being Matt Cassel and his TD/INT ratio). I think this should come as no big surprise. When a QB is getting sacked more, that means the O-line is allowing more defenders to break penetration and getting to the QB more. And when the defense is getting to the QB more often, it makes the QBs job tougher and makes it harder for the QB to complete throws. This is a simple aspect of the game. Defenses tend to be better when they can get to the QB and offenses tend to be better when the O-line has great pass protection. This again just reinforces the extreme importance of an offensive line and how overrated people make out the QB position to be.
Now we move to Aaron Rodgers. He's not only one of the best QBs in the league right now, he's doing it with an AWFUL O-line. I mean they've been dreadful. Yes, they're injured, but awful nonetheless. Yes, despite this and in the face if statistical data, Rodgers puts up great numbers. Look at his S/100 spike. Out of the seven players, no spike has gone above or below 3.00. Yes, Rodgers S/100 has taken a huge hit this year; he's getting sacked over 12 times per every 100 passing attempt and is getting sacked over six times more per every 100 passing attempt than he was last year. But he's STILL improved. I don't think people realize what an amazing feat this is! (as shown by my crude poll ranking NFC QBs, I was the only one to vote for Rodgers).
So when you go talking trash about your QB, please take a look at his O-line before you judge.
How to calculate passer rating
Almost nobody in the world knows exactly what the QB Passer Rating is and more importantly how to calculate it. We just know a large number is Peyton Manning and a low number is Rex Grossman. I'm a little embarrassed I never looked up the significance of the stat, considering I use the QB rating as an analysis of past and present quarterbacks. Finally, I decided to hit up wikipedia and find out what the rating actually tells you about a quarterback
It is actually a well thought out statistical analysis of quarterback efficiency based on 4 main attributes. They are completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD per attempt, and interceptoins per attempt. Each of these categories are set to an upper and lower limit with increasing diminishing returns for the upper limits. If you do reach the upper limits in each category, such as 12.5 yards/att and no interceptions, then you will have a perfect rating of 158.3
If you want to calculate it yourself, just employ this easy to use formula.
It is actually a well thought out statistical analysis of quarterback efficiency based on 4 main attributes. They are completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD per attempt, and interceptoins per attempt. Each of these categories are set to an upper and lower limit with increasing diminishing returns for the upper limits. If you do reach the upper limits in each category, such as 12.5 yards/att and no interceptions, then you will have a perfect rating of 158.3
If you want to calculate it yourself, just employ this easy to use formula.
TBO Top 12: Quarterback
In the past 2 weeks, i have heard nothing but fantasy football analysis. Everyone has their own top 20 list, so I decided to join in on the action and create top 12 lists for every position. Why 12 you ask? Because 10 team leagues are queer. Yeah, i'm talking to you ESPN.com
Quarterbacks:
Quarterbacks:
- Tom Brady - Belichick must be pissed after missing the playoffs after an 11 win season. What happens when Belichick is pissed? He puts up 49 points at halftime. Ask the Dolphins if you dont believe me . He may not have another 400 point season in him, but 380 possible.
- Peyton Manning - The smartest man in football outside Bill Belichick. If anyone knows how to move the ball down field and put it in the endzone, it is Peyton. Still put up 300 fantasy points last year despite missing all of training camp and undergoing surgery to clean out an infection. Now that he is healthy and doesnt have to pretend like he wants to throw the ball to Marvin Harrison, he will have a monster 350 point season.
- Drew Brees - Sean Payton has proven he can run an offense as well as anyone from the sidelines. Despite Brees' miniature Grossman like stature, he constantly leads the league in 20 yard passes. With a healthy Marcus Colston, can he improve on his 5000 yard season? No, but 330 points is a given
- Aaron Rodgers - As much as I hate the Packers, Rodgers scares the living shit out of me. He has the arm and athleticism to hit the jackpot on every play. Packers would have been better off showing Favre the door long ago. I believe he has the best WR group that make the Packs offense scary. 320 points
- Phillip Rivers - Despite not having a true number 1 receiver, he has so many weapons around him on offense and defense including Antonio Gates. I expect the Chargers to be the best team in the AFC and Rivers will be the center of it all. 310 points
- Matt Schaub - If Schaub is able to stay healthy for the first time as a Texan, I expect him to put up silly numbers. He has put up a 90 QB rating in his 2 years in Houston and has some guy named Andre Johnson to throw to. That alone will help him put up a 300 point season.
- Tony Romo - Romeo will find life a lot more difficult without having TO to throw too. Roy Williams is a lazy fuck and Crayton is a number 3 receiver. I expect Witten to dominate the ball. Still, Romo's improvisational style will lead to many big plays for a 290 point season.
- Kurt Warner - I don't believe in Warner the way most people still seem to. His age and history of fumbling the ball scare me silly, such that I wouldn't expect a 16 game season. He makes the top 10 because of Fitzgerald and Boldin on either side, not to mention Breaston and Urban to boot. 280 points
- Jay Cutler - Did you see his second preseason game? Dude overthrew Hester with a 60 yard bomb in the air while running from defenders. He'll get picked, but he might replicate the 4000 yard season. Maybe Royal and Marshall were a product of Cutler, just like Hester and Olson may become. 270 points
- Donovan McNabb - I never saw McNabb as an overly efficient quarterback. With his running skills gone, his arm is only slightly above average. He does have crazy weapons around him. I love the Jackson/Maclin combination to go along with Westbrook and McCoy in the backfield. 260 points
- Carson Palmer - His shoulder is healthy, though his ankle is not. He throws one of the prettiest balls in the league, and Ochocinco is overlooked as a great wide out. I expect big numbers on a horrible team. 240 points
- Matt Hasselbeck - Former top 10 QB prior to injuries, he still has a great touch on the ball. His receivers are short and unreliable though he should maximize whatever talents Burleson and Branch still possess. 230 points
Why I Don't Draft A QB Before the Fifth Round
I have preached this philosophy on this blog and via our podcasts. While a QB overall can probably score you more fantasy points than even an elite RB or wide out, I believe QB are a dime a dozen. Now I won't fault you if you draft Tom Brady with your first pick, but as DME likes to state, would your rather have Hanley and Prince Fielder or Pujols and Derek Jeter? If you didn't quite get that reference, let me explain. The depth of the position is extremely important. SS in fantasy baseball is extremely shallow and 1B is extremely deep. So while many people say they would rather have Pujols over Hanley, DME responds by saying that because 1B is so deep and SS is not, he'll take the best of the best of the shallower position and dig deeper into the deep position.
Well QB in fantasy football are like 1B is fantasy baseball. Sure having an elite will help your team on his own, but when you couple that QB with just a mediocre RB, well your team loses.
Yahoo! has actually done something right (for once) and did a little experiment. They put nine QBs into three tiers. Tier 1 has Brady, Manning, and Brees. Tier 2 has Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers and Tier 3 has Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan. They then used Mock Draft Central ADP's to determine where all players went and then did mock drafts to determine nine teams, all with one of the QBs, and obviously drafted the Tier 1 QBs higher than the Tier 3 QBs. They then used their projection system to determine which team would produce the most points.
Their results help back up what I've preached all along. The top team had a Tier 2 QB- Aaron Rodgers, and the 7th and 8th place team had Tier 1 QBs- Manning and Brees. The second place team had Tom Brady which also backs up the belief that if you draft Brady, you'll be fine. Click on the link above to understand this "study" better or to get more in depth analysis and Yahoo!'s help on QBs.
Now obviously this study is extremely faulty. You never know if a 7th round pick will be the second best fantasy player (i.e. DeAngelo Williams) or if the first overall pick will be a bust (ie LT) which is why basing what teams will win on ADP's and projections is extremely faulty. But the study does help back up what I'm saying.
As I've said over and over again, if you build your team around strong RBs and WRs, you can win. Having depth and knowing where to draft players past the eighth round also helps. Again, if you draft a QB late like I will, you need to be pretty knowledgeable about everyone in the draft and know where to take your backs. You can not just blindly draft a QB late and hope it works out for you. BUT, if you draft smart, you can get a QB five rounds after Tom Brady goes, and still have that guy put up similar numbers.
Well QB in fantasy football are like 1B is fantasy baseball. Sure having an elite will help your team on his own, but when you couple that QB with just a mediocre RB, well your team loses.
Yahoo! has actually done something right (for once) and did a little experiment. They put nine QBs into three tiers. Tier 1 has Brady, Manning, and Brees. Tier 2 has Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers and Tier 3 has Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan. They then used Mock Draft Central ADP's to determine where all players went and then did mock drafts to determine nine teams, all with one of the QBs, and obviously drafted the Tier 1 QBs higher than the Tier 3 QBs. They then used their projection system to determine which team would produce the most points.
Their results help back up what I've preached all along. The top team had a Tier 2 QB- Aaron Rodgers, and the 7th and 8th place team had Tier 1 QBs- Manning and Brees. The second place team had Tom Brady which also backs up the belief that if you draft Brady, you'll be fine. Click on the link above to understand this "study" better or to get more in depth analysis and Yahoo!'s help on QBs.
Now obviously this study is extremely faulty. You never know if a 7th round pick will be the second best fantasy player (i.e. DeAngelo Williams) or if the first overall pick will be a bust (ie LT) which is why basing what teams will win on ADP's and projections is extremely faulty. But the study does help back up what I'm saying.
As I've said over and over again, if you build your team around strong RBs and WRs, you can win. Having depth and knowing where to draft players past the eighth round also helps. Again, if you draft a QB late like I will, you need to be pretty knowledgeable about everyone in the draft and know where to take your backs. You can not just blindly draft a QB late and hope it works out for you. BUT, if you draft smart, you can get a QB five rounds after Tom Brady goes, and still have that guy put up similar numbers.
