NFL Free Agency Thoughts. Part I.

Maybe this will be like History of the World and not have a Part II. Or maybe this will be like Kill Bill. Who knows. Either way, Part I is awesome.

Was it in the new CBA that 50% of your roster in 2010 was not allowed to be on your roster in 2011? I understand there was a lockout and everything but I can't remember an offseason being this crazy. Ever. Who isn't a free agent? Or got traded? Or flat out released?

New England Patriots

- Chad Ochocinco reminds me a lot of another disgruntled Cincinnati Bengals player who went to New England and transformed the Patriots offense- RB Corey Dillon. Both Dillon and Ochocinco were great players who got bad raps unfairly. Dillon, like Ochocinco, was just upset at being in Cincy and just wanted out. Maybe he shouldn't have created a fuss in the press but ultimately he got his wish- a trade and a playoff ring. But Corey Dillon was 29 and still in his prime when he got traded. Chad is currently 33 and has looked really bad in the past two seasons. Dillon was just injured in his last season in Ohio. What's Ochocinco's excuse? Although having the great Tom Brady can do wonders for a person's career.
- On a recent podcast, Cubsfan said he's rank Braylon Edwards a top 5 wide out in fantasy if he signed with New England. I assume he'd feel pretty strongly about Ochocinco as well. I still don't trust it and won't draft Ochocinco, but I'm risk averse. I"m sure he'll be the next Randy Moss.
- DT Albert Haynesworth has always had the talent to be a top 3 DT in the game since leaving Tennessee. Washington tends to do that to players though- bring out the crapiness in players (Although in Rex Grossman's case, there was nothing to bring out. It was already there). In Belichick we trust. However, I do find it strange that Haynesworth threw a stink when he was forced to play nose tackle in the 3-4 scheme under Shanahan. I really hope Albert knows the Pats play in a 3-4 scheme. Plus the Pats have one of, if not the best, nose tackles in game in Vince Wilfork. This moves seems really strange.
- The Pats mold for winning championships was always having the best offense and defensive lines, linebackers who were hungry and versatile enough to play in Belichick's scheme and Tom Brady to win on the very last drive because the team really wasn't that good throughout the first 3.75 quarters. Didn't the Patriots learn from Adalius Thomas! Paying for free agents will always backfire in your face!

Philadelphia Eagles

- Two years ago Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie was a top two cornerback. Last year he wasn't even close to the mediocrity that his cousin (Antonio Cromartie) was. Gotta think he'll be back to his top self playing next to Asante Samuel. Although he'll still be like his cousin was last year in the sense that quarterbacks will still be targeting him because he's the second best CB on his team. However, very few teams can have the privilege of having the caliber and talent of a guy like ARC as their *number two* corner.
- The sun will rise tomorrow. Bill Belichick will give the most boring press conferences in the world. And Michael Vick will get hurt in 2011. If it was just for draft picks, the Eagles shouldn't have traded QB Kevin Kolb because they will absolutely need him for games next season. However, you could not have passed up a deal like what Arizona gave them.
- DE Jason Babin was one of the best pass rushers (if not the best. How often do you think I can say that phrase in this post? My over/under is 5. I'm at 2 now) in the game in 2010. However, he was on his 5th team last year and had his break out season at age 31. This is also his second go-around with the Eagles. I don't trust him moving forward and thought that was a dumb move signing Babin by the normally smart Eagles.

Quarterbacks

- If Washington Redskins fans hated Donovan McNabb boy they are going to love Rex Grossman
- Kevin Kolb can hit the broad side of a barn. He can throw a ball into the ocean and it will actually hit water. Sounds easy right? Well it was something Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton could not do in 2010. Larry Fitzgerald is now a top ten fantasy wide out and will most likely go to the Pro Bowl in 2011. It looks like Early Doucet will play opposite of Fitzy which I don't like as much as if Steve Breaston was there. But hey, Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme went to a Superbowl and Pro Bowls together with less. (Less meaning Jake Delhomme was in the equation)
- McNabb and Christian Ponder both probably have the same skill set right now. McNabb's skill is declining while Ponder's skill is rising and right now they're meeting at the exact same spot. However, both suck and will suck long term. Have fun being in the cellar for the next couple of years Minnesota!
- Matt Hasselbeck will do his best Kerry Collins impression in Tennessee.
- Matt Leinart choose to stay in Houston as opposed to go to Seattle and be reunited with his college coach Pete Carrol. He claims he wanted to have a starting job and with Tavaris Jackson there that shot is lost. It makes sense because Matt Schaub is not even close to what Tavaris Jackson is. Matt Schuab wishes one day he could be Tavaris Jackson. Leinart had/has the talent to be a damn fine, if not great, starting quarterback (Three?). Instead he wants to be a perennial back up so he doesn't actually have to do shit and still gets to say to chicks that he's a professional football player to fuck them. It's a pussy-shit move on Leinart's part and of many in the storied career of the Heisman winner.
- In a post I wrote in February and re-wrote in last July, the best quarterback available this offseason is Kyle Orton. He has proven how good he is in both Chicago and Denver and can adapt to your system. I find it hard to believe that it's difficult to pry him away from Denver right now.

Chicago Bears

- This comes from a facebook status of a friend of mine:

Busy sports day! Getting rid of Maynard, Olsen, Manumaleuna, losing Daniel Manning, and possibly kreutz is not what worries me. What worries me is that many of the players that the Bears initially went after had no interest in the Bears. I think its time for the Bears to do a little Self-reflection and figure out why?

Well, we know why- the Bears are a shit organization right now filled with shit leadership going all the way to the top.
- I actually don't mind getting rid of Greg Olson, it's what we got back that upsets me. Once I saw him get full playing time I started to grow weary and disdainful of him. TBO ragged on me for that for the past two years. Apparently the rest of the league knew what I knew as he gets traded only for a 3rd round draft pick. That's a bit ridiculous.
- With Olson gone I don't know who Jay Cutler is going to have butt sex with now. Is he going to have secret trysts, Brokeback Mountain style, to North Carolina? Maybe breaking up with KC was premature.
- The Bears do not need Olin Kruetz. He's way past his prime and he's 34 years old. He has not been good for years and the Bears do not need him. Being in Chicago I keep hearing the Bears do. ESPN radio host here in Chicago Carmen DeFalco was upset because the Cardinals signed center Kyle Sendlein (???) and he was to be the fall back plan if Kruetz doesn't sign with us. The Bears can trot out right now as an offensive line this year- Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Roberto Garza, J'Marcus Webb, and Frank Omiyale and it will still be better than our porous O-line from last year because we have Carimi. Either Webb or Garza an play center just as well as Kruetz did the past few seasons. So can you.
- A sidenote to my previous point- the New York Giants just released center Shaun O'Hara and G Rich Seubert. Both would be upgrades over what Chicago has now. Center Jonathan Goodwin (formerly of New Orleans) is also still available. Plenty of O-lineman still out there for the Bears to get.
- There are plenty of great wide outs still left as well. The Bears will not get any of them. The Rams should get a few if they're smart.

I know there are many, many, many, many more free agent stuff to talk about but I had to delete the word "quick" from the title of my post because this mofo is like three hours long. If I have time maybe some thoughts on guys like Reggie Bush, Takeo Spikes, and Sidney Rice. But for another time.

Pujols: The Free Agent

According to Ken Rosenthal's sources talks between Albert Pujols and the Cardinals are trending in the wrong direction. Pujols, deserving so, is looking for Alex Rodriguez money, and the Cardinals are reportedly balking at an asking price modeled after a 10-year, $275 million dollar deal. While the overwhelming sentiment around baseball is that Pujols will probably end up signing a deal with the Cardinals, Pujols has nonetheless set an deadline regarding contract extension negotiations with the Cardinals for the start of spring training. Pujols' agent was vocal early this offseason that if a deal could not be reached by then, Pujols would test the free agency market. With this in mind, the question beckens: if not St. Louis, where?

Before looking at Pujols' best possible suitors, let's first analyze whether Alex Rodriguez is a good contracts negotiation point comparable. Last season, per Fangraphs, Pujols was "only" worth +7.3 WAR, the second worst single-season performance of his career. His "puny" WAR total qualified as third best amongst all major league hitters last year, behind only Josh Hamilton (+8.0 WAR) and Joey Votto (+7.4 WAR). In fact, the only other players in baseball last season to even crack the +7.0 WAR mark last season were Ryan Zimmerman (+7.2 WAR) and Adrian Beltre (+7.1 WAR). Exclusive company, to say the least. Alex Rodriguez (+3.9 WAR) didn't even crack the +4.0 WAR plateau last season.

In the four seasons prior to 2010, each of which was marred by some medley of limiting injuries which frequently required offseason surgey, Pujols posted WAR total of +8.3 or higher. From 2008-2009, Pujols accumulated +18.0 WAR. The dollar value of a win over the past three seasons has been approximately $4.5 million. Applying this total to Pujols' past three year WAR value of +25.3 WAR, Pujols produced at a clip worth approximately $113.85 million. Let's be pessimistically conservative and round that total down to a flat $100 million. Considering that Pujols made less than half of that total over the past three seasons ($48 million), you can understand why the best right handed hitter in baseball, wants to share in the profits. Pujols will make $16 million in 2011 and estimates of this offseason's dollar value per win peg a single win-above-replacement at $5 million. Hence Pujols would only have to produce a +3.2 WAR clip to be worth his salary. His career low in single season WAR is +5.7, from his sophomore season. Yeah, this guy is worth some money.

By comparison, let's look at Alex Rodriguez's value heading into his record-setting $275 million dollar contract. No one doubts that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops of all time (sorry, Derek Jeter, but it was you who should have slid over to third base) and, even as a third basemen, he has been one of the best players in baseball. However, when we compare Arod's WAR to Pujols' WAR, keep in mind that the positional adjustment differential is about 1.5 wins per season in favor of Arod.

In the three seasons prior to signing his massive contract with the Yankees (opting out of his current deal), Alex Rodriguez was worth a cumulative +22.9 WAR, despite playing the better position. While Pujols had the better three-year WAR total, Arod had the better two-of-three seasons, being worth +9.2 WAR in 2007 and +9.4 WAR in 2005. Arod had a real stinker of a season in 2006 by Arod standard, posting a "meager" +4.3 WAR campaign (still all-star caliber season, no matter what the New York media proclaimed at the time). In the three years prior to signing his record-setting contract, Alex Rodriguez accrued +172.3 batting runs over the three seasons prior, while playing below-average defense at third base (-15.7 2005-07 UZR, -2.9 career UZR/150 at third). Alex Rodriguez was 32 years old at the time he signed his behemoth deal. In the three years since, Arod has had a squeaky hip and accumulated a cumulative +14.4 WAR for the Yankees.

Albert Pujols, likewise, will be 31 when he hits free agency. He has out hit (+200.8 batting runs) and outfielded (+5.9 three-year UZR, albeit at first base) Alex Rodriguez in the three-year sample preceding his massive contract. Granted, Albert Pujols still has 2011 to "show what he's worth," but it's unlikely that Pujols, barring some unforeseen injury, will post a WAR below +7.0 next season, let alone one below +8.0. Keep in mind that Albert Pujols used to play outfield and third base (and was a capable fielder at both), but was moved to first base because of lingering elbow issues and a (wise) desire by the Cardinals' to preserve Pujols health.

For a better look at Pujols' value, check out his comparative value against Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard (who signed a 5-year, $125 million deal last season) courtesy of Fangraphs' WAR charts. First, let's look at single-season WAR by age (click to embiggen):


A look at this chart indicates just how talented Arod, who broke into the majors a few seasons earlier than Pujols, and Pujols truly are. Ryan Howard has not been better at the same age than either of Arod or Pujols, and Teixeira's best season (age 28) was the only season he was able to (barely) out-edge either, being a half WAR better than Arod, but a full 2 WAR behind Pujols. While Arod has a better WAR, by a count of 5-4-1, than Pujols in the age-overlapping seasons of play, Pujols has been the more consistent player, which has lead to him producing a better WAR total in their age-overlapping seasons despite playing the inferior position (first base, to Arod's third and short). From age 21 to 30, Alex Rodriguez was worth a whopping +74.5 WAR. Pujols, on the other hand, has been worth a cumulative +80.6 WAR in his age 21-30 seasons.

Pujols' consistency can also be reflected in his WAR chart by nth best season (click to embiggen):


Again, we find Alex Rodriguez has the better single-season WAR campaigns, but, on top of being more consistent, Pujols gets a -12.5 runs per season adjustment to his WAR bottom line due to being a first basemen. Pujols also blows Mark Teixeira (8-year/$180 million contract) and Ryan Howard (5-years/$125 million) out of the water.

Have no doubt, Albert Pujols has been a better hitter and at least a comparable player to Alex Rodriguez. Inflation dictates a $275-300 million contract is not a poor starting point for Pujols' agent to negotiate, and as David Gassko pointed out the other day, Pujols' expected dollar value on a ten-year contract comes out to roughly $275 million dollars (assuming a 0.6 WAR/season regression towards mediocrity on Pujols' part).

This noted, what can be said of Albert Pujols' prospective 2012 and beyond value. If Albert Pujols does indeed test the free agency market following the 2011 season, who might be his best suitors? let's break it down by team.

American League

• Yankees. Because they are the biggest market in baseball, you can never count the Yankees out. However, with the presence of Mark Teixeira for five more seasons past 2011 and the declining range of and extended commitment to aging players like Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, the Yankees seemingly have their first base/DH slot locked up for the near and extended future. That's not even to mention the possible need of the DH spot for the defensively inept, but potent bat of Jesus Montero (assuming he is not traded for a quality pitcher before the end of the season).
  
• Red Sox. While the Red Sox have seemingly set their eyes on extending newly acquired first baseman Adrian Gonzalez long term, David Ortiz's contract expires after 2011. While Big Papi has sold his share of jerseys and seats since coming to the Red Sox, helping lead them to two World Series titles, the aging slugger has shown signs of wear and decreasing bat speed. While you obviously would love to trot a guy like Albert Pujols out on the field given his average/above average defensive value, his elbow has been a concern in recent seasons. A move to DH to preserve the super-slugger's health would not be crazy. Unlike Jermaine Dye, Pujols probably would make the move away from playing defense if he is going to get paid the biggest bucks. The Red Sox do have a lot of long term money tied up already, however...
  
• Blue Jays. If the cost-controlled Adam Lind experiment fails, the Blue Jays might be in the market for a big slugging first basemen next season. The question is whether the Toronto market, not known for ticket sales of late, could afford the contract Pujols is looking for. With both Alex Rios and Vernon Wells gone, it's a distinct possibility.
  
• Orioles. Derrek Lee is around for only one more year, but Baltimore, like Toronto, is probably too small a market to realistically make a run at Pujols. The Orioles could barely afford to make an offer to Teixeira a few years back and their youngsters have not produced at a high enough clip to warrant taking on the long-term cost risk Pujols would bring.
  
• Rays. The Rays could barely afford Manny Ramirez at $2 million for 2012. Expect Andrew Friedman to continue to exploit the inefficiencies of the free agency market, rather than tie his entire team's payroll up upon one player.
  
• White Sox. Kenny Williams loves to mingle in the free agency market, but with three DHs on the team&mdaash;Carlos Quentin, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko—the White Sox's ability to add Pujols is very slim. Of course, never count out Williams making some radical move like selling Carlos Quentin and sliding Adam Dunn back to right field. Usually, you'd say "wow, that's not good for your team's defense," but Quentin is Brad Hawpe-bad in the outfield...
  
• Twins. If they can barely afford Jim Thome, they can't afford Albert Pujols. Especially not with Justin Morneau lingering.
  
• Royals. The Royals probably have the biggest glut at first base/DH, including their stacked minor league hitters. Heck, Mike Moustakas might stick at third base simply because the Royals have nowhere else to put him!
  
• Tigers. Miguel Cabrera+Victor Martinez+payroll already well above $100 million = incredibly unlikely.
  
• Indians. Are the Indians even trying to trout out a major-league quality baseball team anymore? Travis Hafner still lingers at DH and while the team has a potential opening at first base, assuming Matt LaPorta can play left field, I doubt Mark Shapiro has the financial resources to make a run at Pujols.
  
• Athletics. This is Billy Beane we're talking about here. Even without the presence of Daric Barton and/Chris Carter, we'd probably see Beane sign Russell Branyan (and probably even Barry Bonds) before making a legitimate run at Pujols.
  
• Angels. If it wasn't for the "we are desperate, so we traded for Vernon Wells" bit that went down this offseason, the Angels might have been a legitimate suitor for Pujols.
  
• Rangers. As the Rangers missed out on Cliff Lee, they might have the cash lying around (though most of it was likely spent on Adrian Beltre). If the Chris Davis/Mitch Moreland experiment continues to fail, they might be in the running, assuming they move Michael Young, for an elite first basemen. I would guess the Rangers would target Prince Fielder first, however...
  
• Mariners. Pujols' defense is not good enough for Jack Zduriencik. In all seriousness, though, the team is going to give a long look at Justin Smoak and the DH market is always over-saturated with bargain buys.

National League*
*with no DH spot in the NL, Pujols' potential landing spots will be substantially more limited than in the AL

• Nationals. Not that the Nationals have been good at attracting marquis free market talent as of late (Jayson Werth excepted), but Adam LaRoche's multi-year contract will probably keep the Nationals out of the bidding. Even if the Nationals were to cut LaRoche to make room, I doubt they could sustain the payroll required to bring Pujols aboard.
  
• Mets. The Mets still have some big contracts handcuffing their financial flexibility. And with more pressing team needs (pitching) and the presence of young first baseman Ike Davis, Sandy Alderson almost certainly will sit on his hands when it comes to Pujols.
  
• Marlins. You're talking about the team that was too cheap to keep Dan Uggla and an owner recently accused of embezzling money. A team whose entire payroll just a few seasons ago was less than half the amount of money that Pujols is asking for annually. Count Jeff Loria and the Marlins out, if for no other reason than prospect Logan Morrison.
  
• Phillies. The Phillies were all too eager to overpay aging slugger Ryan Howard last season and with what it's paying Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt (to some extent), among others, the team can afford few of its residual needs, let alone luxuries, at this point.
  
• Braves. Two words: Freddie Freeman. The Braves are one of those rare teams that does not need the free agency market (or that Pujols guy).
  
• Cubs. Beyond just being a Cubs fan, I think that Albert Pujols would make a great fit for the Cubs for three reasons. First, payroll coming off the books: 2011 will be Kosuke Fukudome's last season in Cubbie Blue, while Carlos Pena's $10 million salary will most likely be gone as well. Carlos Zambrano will only have one season left with the Cubs (who are almost guaranteed to turn down his option), and Aramis Ramirez will likely also be a free agent after 2011. If the Cubs want, given only the lingering presence and lesson of Alfonso Soriano, they can probably afford Pujols. Second, the Cubs have long wanted to rekindle the elite power vacuum they've had since Sammy Sosa left long ago. The Cubs would likely prefer the power to come from a lefty, which is why they signed Pena this offseason and also why Prince Fielder makes a lot of sense for the Cubs. Still, Pujols is baseball's best hitter, who plays a position that will be open next season.
  
  This brings us to the third reason the Cubs might sign Pujols: Doing so means he is not a Cardinal. With Ryan Theriot now "on the right side of the rivalry," nothing would give Cubs fans more pleasure than to steal the Cardinals slugger. It would hardly make up for the scores of Cubs players who went to the Cardinals to experience prosperous careers or win a World Series ring (from Lou Brock to Bruce Sutter and everyone in between), but it would be a great start.
  
• Cardinals They currently "own" the rights to the super slugger and he's their player to lose. There's a million reasons why and how (and also why not) the team can and should (and should not) extend Pujols; those have been written ad nauseum elsewhere.
  
• Pirates. While signing Pujols would go a long way toward bringing respectability to a team that has been sub-.500 since Barry Bonds walked almost two decades ago, Neil Huntington's claim of the team's financial position probably means they cannot afford Pujols. The New York Times would probably disagree, however. Pujols would be a slight upgrade over Lyle Overbay.
• Reds. The Reds are currently within their "competing" window and have a good young core, but with the presence of their own elite first baseman, Joey Votto, for at least two seasons after 2011 at "below-market" prices (though $17 million for 2013 is definitely not "cheap"), the Reds are better suited to spend "Pujols money" elsewhere and on other needs. Especially if you believe in that Yonder Alonso fella.
  
• Astros. After years of unwise free agency moves that have deteriorated their minor league system, the Astros have finally committed themselves to rebuilding. Pujols would shatter those plans and could possibly ruin the franchise,. Do not count Ed Wade in here, at least not with cheap first baseman Brett Wallace around.
  
• Brewers. If the Brew Crew fails to retain Fielder, it is conceivable, given their somewhat comparable salary demands, that the Brewers might make a run at Pujols. The question will be whether the Brewers have the necessary cash. If they do, you'd imagine they'd just keep Fielder, a market-favorite, right?
  
• Giants. If the Giants truly want to retain Tim Lincecum long term, they are probably going to have to forgo Pujols. Besides, they are enamored with Aubrey Huff for the time being.
  
• Padres. The Padres recently shipped away their franchise slugger (Adrian Gonzalez) and are in rebuilding mode, hoping recently signed Brad Hawpe, and perhaps a healthy Kyle Blanks, might fill the hold that A-Gon left. I doubt that that Jed Hoyer has the financial flexibility to bring Pujols aboard, but given that PetCo park is substantially more home run-friendly to right-handed hitters than Busch Stadium and comparable in runs suppression for right-handed hitters overall, the Padres would take some solace in not having to worry about the Brian Giles effect settling in.
  
• Diamondbacks. Kevin Towers has always been a pitching-first GM, but in managing a team in hitter-friend Chase Field, perhaps he'll change his tune. While Busch Stadium has a home run park factor index of 77 for right-handed hitters (the worst in the NL and fourth worst in baseball), Chase Field has a home run park factor index of 121 for right-handed batters (tied for fifth-highest in baseball). That could add as many as 10 home runs to Pujols' season total and Towers has been on the lookout for some low-strikeout, high power output since taking over as the Diamondbacks' general manager.
  
• Rockies. With Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki and Jorge de la Rosa, among others, around for the long-term, the Rockies probably can't afford to kill their residual payroll "flexibility" with Pujols. Plus, has Todd Helton's contract even expired yet?
  
• Dodgers. Divorce can really handcuff your finances. Frank McCourt will not control sole ownership rights to the team anymore and I doubt he is going to let ex-wife Jaime take half of Pujols along with half his money. In all seriousness, the Dodgers can't afford Pujols and have James Loney lingering anyway.

In light of the above, I would expect the most likely "Pujols the free agent" suitors to be (in order): the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Rangers. Of course, given that this is Albert Pujols we are talking about, many more teams might also get creative to make a run at baseball's best baseball player. You can read more of my thoughts on the subject here.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments.

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum

A conversation with a friend earlier today sparked a thought. Let's compare the Matt Holliday and Jayson Werth contracts.

CONTRACT VALUE

• Matt Holliday: $120M/7 yrs ($122M in 2010 dollars)
  
• Jayson Werth: $126M/7 yrs

WAR VALUE IN ONE/TWO/THREE/FOUR SEASONS PRIOR TO CONTRACT

• Matt Holliday: +5.6/+11.3/+18.4/+22.4
  
• Jayson Werth: +5.0/+9.9/+15.0/+18.2
  

AGE WHEN CONTRACT WAS SIGNED

• Matt Holliday: 29
  
• Jayson Werth: 31

WAR CHART BY PRODUCTIVITY


WAR CHART BY AGE


Yeah. I think the Nationals overpaid a bit. I think these guys would agree.

Pick One: The Top 30 FA Landing Spots

Last week, I gave some insight on my expected landing points for the top 20 free agents of 2011. Since, I've made a few bets with friends and talked to some guys at THT and in the spirit of committing myself to a decision, here are a list of where TBO, two law students, and myself see the top free agents landing this offseason. I have a strong feeling that Hiroki Kuroda is going to mess up my predictions big time by re-upping with the Dodgers...

NAME              DME          TBO           A. Bassan    D. Nangle
Cliff Lee         Nationals    Rangers       Yankees      Yankees
Carl Crawford     Angels       Angels        Red Sox      Angels
Adrian Beltre     Red Sox      Red Sox       Mariners     Red Sox
Jayson Werth      Red Sox      Nationals     Angels       Red Sox
Adam Dunn         Cubs         Nationals     White Sox    Cubs
Victor Martinez   Tigers       Red Sox       Tigers       Tigers
Rafael Soriano    Diamondbacks White Sox     Astros       Angels
Mariano Rivera    Yankees      Yankees       Yankees      Yankees
Paul Konerko      White Sox    White Sox     White Sox    White Sox
Derek Jeter       Yankees      Yankees       Yankees      Yankees
Hiroki Kuroda     Rangers      Orioles       Pirates      Nationals
Jorge De La Rosa  Pirates      Pirates       Nationals    Pirates
Carl Pavano       Twins        Twins         Astros       Rangers
Jake Westbrook    Rockies      Cardinals     Cardinals    Cardinals
Aubrey Huff       Giants       Giants        Giants       Mariners
Juan Uribe        Giants       Giants        Orioles      Giants
Carlos Pena       Nationals    Angels        Nationals    Nationals
Jim Thome         Rays         Twins         Rangers      Twins
Vladimir Guerrero Rangers      White sox     Rays         Rangers
Manny Ramirez     White Sox    Rangers       Athletics    Athletics
Magglio Ordonez   Tigers       Tigers        Blue Jays    ---
Orlando Hudson    Cardinals    Cardinals     Cardinals    ---
Lance Berkman     Rangers      Yankees       Orioles      ---
Derrek Lee        Orioles      Cubs          Blue Jays    ---
Andy Pettitte     Yankees      Yankees       Retired      ---
Jon Garland       Cardinals    Rockies       Mets         ---
Javier Vazquez    Nationals    Braves        Orioles      ---
JJ Putz           Angels       Red Sox       Twins        ---
Scott Downs       Red Sox      Blue Jays     Yankees      ---
Hideki Matsui     Mariners     Mariners      Mariners     ---
Brandon Webb      Mariners     Cubs          ---          ---

Check THT Live next week for more insight by me and three other THT writers into where we think the top FA's are going to land. At that point, we will have officially beat a dead horse.

The Unemployed Free Agency Team

Floating around in the netherworld of free agency are a plethora of valuable players, many who could be had at Wal-Mart-like prices. How good are these players? Let's build a 25-man roster of free agency players and use their CHONE-based projected 2010 WARs (for hitters, playing time weighted BRAR+FRAR+Positional+Replacement) to find out.

C-Rod Barajas (+1.9)
C-Yorvit Torrealba (+1.0)
1B-Carlos Delgado (+1.0)
2B-Adam Kennedy (+1.0)
SS-Felipe Lopez (+1.3 as SS/+2.2 as 2B)
3B-Russell Branyan (+3.3 as 3B/+2.4 as 1B)
MI-Rich Aurilia (-0.5)
CI-Joe Crede (+2.1)
LF-Jonny Gomes (+1.0)
CF-Johnny Damon (+3.1 as CF/+3.2 as RF/LF)
RF-Rocco Baldelli (+1.6)
OF-Garrett Anderson (+0.5)
DH-Jermaine Dye (+1.0)
TOTAL = +16.8 WAR

SP-Chien-Ming Wang (+2.5)
SP-Jarrod Washburn (+1.8)
SP-John Smoltz (+2.5)
SP-Erik Bedard (+2.4)
SP-Pedro Martinez (+1.5)
RP-Kiko Calero
RP-Russ Springer
RP-Joe Beimel
RP-Chad Bradford
RP-Chan Ho Park
RP-Will Ohman
CL-Mike MacDougal

24 hours ago, before Orlando Hudson (+2.2) signed, this team would have looked much better.

_____

Edit: Since writing this post, Yorvit Torrealba, Adam Kennedy and Erik Bedard have signed with teams.

Does Vinny Get Fired Before, After, Or On Christmas?

Let's just be frank, Vinny Del Negro is getting canned sooner or later. There is no way Lebron, Wade, Bosh, or even Kwame Brown will want to sign with the Bulls next off-season if Vinny is running the show. 1ust like every other non-football sport, the coach doesnt do jack squate in the NBA. Just look at Doc Rivers, who magically went from coaching the leagues worst record to the champions the very next year. And by magic I mean trading for Garnett and Ray Allen. Or how about Lawrence Frank, who took the Nets to the finals twice with Kidd and Carter. Now he has the distinction of beginning an NBA season loosing 18 straight games with Josh Boone and Trenton Hassell.

I believe Jerry Reinsdorf will open up the vault after the season and finally bring superstars back to the windy city. The problem is that so many teams have money to spend next offseason such that the Bulls organization will have to offer free agents something more enticing than money. Based on the list of free agents and payroll projections on hoops hype, I see several obstacles in the way of our salvation.

1) As many as 15 teams have payroll space next summer to sign one and at least 7 teams who have payroll to sign 2 superstars. The Bulls are by no means the only team that has spent the last 3 years preparing for the upcoming free agent class. The Bulls have 44 million guaranteed for next year assuming they offer Tyrus Thomas the 6 million qualifying offer which I believe they will do. Indications are that the bulls are willing to go up to the 80 million dollar range, just 10 million above this years total, allocating just enough money to sign 2 stud free agents. In the NBA all you need is 2 superstars to make you a contender. You put an all-star shooting guard and forward next to Derrek Rose and you are in the Finals next year.

The biggest competition for the Bulls will be the Miami Heat. They have done the impossible. Assuming Dwayne Wade opts out for free agency, the Heat will only have 8 million dollars guaranteed to Beasley, Cook, and Chalmeres. Meaning they can sign Wade for 25 million and have cap space for 2 more max players. Boozer or Bosh will surely end up in Miami. The Knicks, Clippers, Nets, Pistons, Cavaliers, T-wolves, Thunder, Blazers, and Rockets all potentially have the money to lure away the great free agents.

2. The best thing about being an NBA player, is living the lifestyle of an NBA player. If you thought Tiger Woods had it good, just know that all his skanks are Dwight Howard's sloppy seconds. Who wouldnt want to go to Miami? I basically had my bags packed to go to med school in Miami even though i would never have time to see the sun or Miami beach. Then there is New York. The only thing that separates the Bulls and the Knicks is Derrick Rose. Is that enough to entice Wade to chose Chicago over New York? I'm not so sure. Given the past 10 year post Jordan history, players are not lining up to come to the United Center. Some cities dont even have income tax, something the state of Illinois cannot claim.

3. Some players even want to have a chance to win. Despite the Bulls performance in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, it is difficult to project the current roster as a perennial contender. They have lost 10-11. Have the 3rd worst scoring offense, point differential, and shooting percentage in the NBA. The teams looks as listless as they did in the last weeks of the Scot Skiles era. And most importantly Derrick Rose has yet to make the 2nd year jump that I predicted earlier. Given the quality of his teammates and coaching staff it shouldnt be that big a surprise. Though his medium range jumper should be automatic by now.

The Bulls are required to make some serious organizational changes if they intend on landing any free agents. Regardless if Vinny is or isnt a good coach, his reputation around the league is overly negative. Something has to be done about the United Center. As exciting as it gets during the Blackhawks games, it's as equally dull during the Bulls games. I went to the season opener this season and was actually upgraded to lower level seats because there were so many empty seats. The Bulls need to become cool again and maybe the city can land a Wade or Lebron. A Bosh or a Staudemine. And dont overlook Joe Johnson who is the best passing shooting guard not named Lebron. Believe me, he would be worth the money.

Money or The Ring?

If you are a free agent in sports, you have two main questions to ask yourself: “Do I want to go play on a team because they offered me a lot of money?” or “Do I want to go play on this team because they are competitive and I think they can win it all?”

Sometimes you get lucky and you get wooed by the Red Sox or Yankees and the choice is made for you. The team that offers you the most money just happened to be a team always in contention to win the World Series (or the championship in any sport).

Other decisions like the ones Curt Schilling recently wrote about on his blog about the school district his kids will enter into as well as Lamar Odom saying he only wants to play in a warm city like Miami probably factors into a free agent's decision. But time and time again we see athletes taking the money as opposed to trying to get a ring. But why? I think the ability to win it all should play a factor, but I guess it really does not. This perplexes me.

How many times do you hear a player say, "It does not matter what you did in the regular season, it is all about the post season"? It is all about the post season, because everyone wants to win it all. How many times did you hear Tom Brady and Randy Moss and Bill Belichick say, it doesn't matter that we are undefeated, we still have not won it all. I'm sure if you ask anybody who plays in a professional sport what their goal is in the sport is they would all say “To win a championship.”

Now I’m not ignorant. I know money is important. I know athletes need to look out for their families and look out for themselves. Plus, an athlete has a limited amount of time to participate in his occupation before age becomes a factor. This is something (most of) the working class does not have to worry about. Everyone wants to be rich and have millions of dollars for doing what they love. It is the American dream. However, at what point in your career do you say, "I have money, now I want a ring"? I feel like at some point athletes need to ask themselves this question.

Most players in major sports become free agents after they've been in the league for five or six years or so. This is most likely the one point in a guy's career where he has the best opportunity to make a ton of money. The first time a player becomes a free agent is the toughest call. They have to weigh the fact that this is their best and maybe only time to garner a big contract versus this is also this is the best time where I will play well enough to help my future team get a ring.

However, if an athlete is lucky enough to become a free agent for a second time and still has multiple teams requesting his services yet still has not been a part of a championship team, he should chose the team that gives him the best opportunity to win and take contract price out of the equation.

The hardest factor though to consider is which team will win a championship or be in contention. What if an athlete goes to play for a team he believes will be a competitor but they never end up even making it to the post season? It is extremely difficult to predict which team will win it all. The 2007 and 2008 Cubs looked poised to at least make it to the World Series and ended up getting bounced in the first round both years due to plain bad luck. As good as the Yankees and Red Sox are, only the Red Sox have it won it twice in like the past decade with teams like the Phillies, Cardinals, and White Sox winning it in other years. Nobody would have ever expected the Giants to win it all in 2007. So choosing a team to win it all is extremely risky and unreliable, but I believe you can and should try to spot the teams that will be competitive.

I'm sure owners and GM’s would not like it if players chose better teams than bad teams offering them more money. I'm sure it would be hard for the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams and pre-Drew Brees Saints to get free agents without money. But if you are a player, do you really care?

When Miguel Tejada became a free agent, he chose the money. He played some darn good years but on an Orioles team that didn't finish higher than 4th place in their division. Taking his steroid usage aside, do you think he is happy he put up some great numbers and made money on a lousy team? In fact, because of his steroid scandal, I bet he wished he won a championship to help preserve his legacy.

Sometimes athletes are aware that they don't have a lot of time left and would like a ring. Long time and great Kansas City Chief TE Tony Gonzalez wanted out of his existing contract because he knew the Chiefs were not going anywhere. I'd have to imagine winning it all played a factor into former Padres RHP Jake Peavy's decision to eventually sign with the White Sox. In fact, he was already getting paid no matter what. I think he knows his statistics will take a tumble coming into the AL and into a homer friendly park, but I think he also knows the White Sox give him a better chance to win than the Padres will. Marion Hossa seemed to have this in mind as well. He thought the Red Wings gave him a better chance to get a ring than Pittsburgh did and I'm sure he thinks the Blackhawks give him the best chance to win as well.

It's obvious that some players do care about the ring more than the money and I have no problem if a player does choose money over the ability to win a championship. However, I think when that player's career is said and done, he will regret that he didn't at least try to win a championship. I do not always think that a ring should be a player's main goal when signing a contract, but I would like to see athletes take that into account more instead of them signing a huge contract to play for a team that's last in their division every year.

I Hate Jerry Angelo SO MUCH!

So I'm watching ESPN's First Take right now and Chicago Tribune sports reporter Dan Pompei is talking about the Bears. He says that 1) The Bears will be holding a mini-camp in two weeks before the draft so Angelo can "evaluate his players" and 2) The Bears didn't pick up anyone in free agency because according to Angelo this was one of the worst free agency class he's seen in a while

1) How do you know know the status of your players Angelo!? Did you miss that whole 16 games you recently played!? Was the regular season not good enough for you realize your players suck that you need to hold a mini-camp before the draft!? Seriously, what better evaluation will be done before the draft that wasn't already done before? The team didn't really add any players that Angelo should feel the need to do a whole huge process.

2) Speaking of adding players, WTF Angelo! Your team went 9-7. You lost the last game of the season to miss the playoffs and your team looked terrible against quality teams. The Vikings are good, have good lines, and are always looking to get better and the Packers were injury riddled and should be MUCH better for next year. I'll agree with Angelo that the draft class this year was pretty weak, but these "weak" players are still better than the shit the Bears have on their team. You still need to improve every year!

Pompei said also that Angelo didn't want to "waste money". What, like the contracts to Brian Urlacher and Tommy Harris weren't bad enough! But seriously, Angelo isn't running a fucking baseball team in Oakland, he has plenty of money and plenty of cap room to work with. Money shouldn't be THAT much of an issue for the fucking football team in Chicago.

Jesus I hate Chicago GMs (except maybe the Blackhawks GM, he seems to be doing a good job)