EDITOR'S NOTE: This posts uses advanced statistics. For an explanation of DYAR and DVOA, click here. For an explanation of WPA, click here. For an explanation of EPA, click here.
During my box score tonight's, I keep claiming that Matt Cassel is the best former USC quarterback currently playing in the NFL. Over the past decade, Pete Carrol has produced many first round quarterbacks and top tiered, highly rated talent. Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez all led USC to great years and were all taken within the first 10 picks of their respected drafts. But despite all this, the best QB was one that didn't even play a snap in college: Matt Cassel.
Now some of the reason Cassel is the best USC QB is by default. Carson Palmer looked amazing early in his career and looked like he was fully worth the high draft pick. But after destroying his knee in a playoff game and taking a year off to recover, he just doesn't look like the same quarterback. And I will still defend Matt Leinart but I'm sad to say it looks like his development has been too stunted at this point for him to succeed. The only real chance Leinart ever got was in his rookie year and I will never judge how good a QB truly is in his rookie year- despite the flashed of greatness we have seen from Leinart.
But Mark Sanchez still has a shot. I saw many of his games early and he looked good. He looked like he was making great decisions and making many accurate passes, but his receivers have probably the worst hands in the league. Sure he makes a lot of short passes, well guess what, not everybody can be Peyton Manning. Plus, the few long bombs I've seen him throw (especially to Braylon Edwards) he's looked pretty darn good doing it.
I said I won't fully judge a QB based solely on his rookie season and I certainly will take the fact that Sanchez doesn't even have two full years under his belt. But what that being said, this is a debate on who's the best USC quarterback RIGHT NOW.
We'll start off with the basic statistics. In five less games from 2010 to 2009, Mark Sanchez has thrown 3 more TD passes (12 to 15) and 14 less interceptions (20 to 7). He's increased his TD% by 136% and decreased his INT% by a whopping 262%. He currently holds a 2.14 TD/INT ratio- and anything over 2/1 is commendable and respectable. Cassel's biggest problem, like Sanchez, last year was interception. He threw 16 touchdown, but just as many interceptions. In five less games Cassel has thrown two more touchdowns (16 to 18) and 12 less interceptions (16 to 4) from 2009 to 2010. Cassel currently is fourth in the league in INT% (considering he only has FOUR interceptions on the year) and has a 4.5 TD/INT ratio- more than double that of Sanchez.
Somewhat frustrating is Sanchez's completion percentage. You always like to see a QB improve as he plays more games and a critical part of a QB's game to develop is his completion percentage. While it did go up slightly (53.8 to 55.1), it's still not close to being ideal (at least 59-60%). Versus Cassel who also had a mediocre comp% last year (55%) and raise it up to where it should be this year (59%).
My initial thought for this was because Sanchez has some pretty bad receivers from a catch rate perspective. Edwards has a 51% and Holmes has a 54% of the year. But Dwayne Bowe also has a 54% catch rate. Jamaal Charles has a 71%, LT has a 68%, and Thomas Jones has a 56%. All pretty much the same across the main receivers and backs which tells me the completion percentage of the quarterbacks is mostly the result of the quarterbacks and not the receivers.
Currently, Cassel has more touchdowns, less interceptions, and a better: completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt than Sanchez with essentially the same sack percentage. Although Sanchez does have more yards. And more attempts.
Now onto the advanced stuff! We're getting kinky now. Matt Cassel is 13th in DYAR (essentially total value) and 14th in DVOA (essentially value per play). Sanchez is 18th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA. I think you can make your own conclusions about what this means. Where Sanchez does beat Cassel is in clutchiness. Sanchez has a 2.32 WPA and a 31.2 EPA versus Cassel's .75 WPA and 59.3 EPA.
Lastly, its helpful to look at offensive lines. Drastic differences in offensive line play can greatly affect a QB's play. You can chalk up a lot of bad stats to poor offensive line play. It's hard to throw the ball effectively when you have a guy in your face constantly. But luckily for us, Kansas City has the 9th ranked passing offensive line and the Jets have the 10th this year. Even more reason to think these players' numbers are the result of their true talent right now and not some other, outlier factors.
So who is currently the best USC QB playing the game? Matt Cassel. You can see this cat Cassel is a bad mother- shut your mouth! But I'm talking about Matt!
Showing posts with label Matt Cassel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Cassel. Show all posts
How Are Cutler, Orton, and Cassel Doing On Their New Teams?
I was watching the video TBO posted where Cutler says "you know" more times than Joe Morgan says something dumb. It got me thinking, the whole reason the Bears got Jay Cutler was because Josh McDaniels was actively seeking to get Matt Cassel in a trade. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Redskins among others also were actively seeking to get Cassel. The Chiefs did end up getting Cassel, but 10 games into the regular season you think to yourself, was it really worth it? Do teams really want Cassel?
Last year, Cassel Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to as well as a great O-line. So you knew his numbers were skewed a bit. Even still, Cassel was never that efficient ranking 17th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. Those who liked him because of his fantasy football production also were misled the same way we were misled my liking Tyler Thigpen- Cassel was able to run the ball pretty well (again, helped by the Pats O-line). Cassel was 10th in passer rating, 10th in YPG, and 15th in YPA with a 1.91 TD/INT ratio. So how's Cassel doing this year?
To start off with, the Chiefs have an awful O-line ranking 27th in pass blocking (and as any Bears fan can tell you now, it's hard as hell for a QB to throw the ball with an awful line) and Dwayne Bowe and um, uh, whoever the Chiefs #2 receiver was before Chambers arrived are much much much worse than Moss and Welker. However, Cassel still took a 11.5 hit in passer rating, 1.2 YPA hit, and is completing 8.4% less passes. Yet despite this, his TD/INT ratio has gone up .09 points.
Normally, I would think that maybe I would start talking about how shitty Cassel is, but I think looking at Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler from this year to last year is a great example of just how important a line and receiving corps can be.
Jay Cutler went for playing for a team that ranked 4th in pass blocking to a team that now ranks 15th (and I think this is an example where stats can lie b/c I feel Cutler being able to scramble and throws the ball before he gets sacked screws this number because no way in hell the Bears are only middle of the pack in pass blocking). Anyway, Cutler is going from a great line to a shitty one. He's going from a 1.39 TD/INT ratio to a .833 ratio. He took a .56 hit in TD/INT ratio, 11.5 hit in passer rating, a .70 hit in YPA (and to put this into perspective, he has a 7.3, 7.5, and 7.3 YPA in Denver. He's down to 6.6 this year), but only a slight hit in completion percentage. .
Compare this now to Kyle Orton who went from a shitty situation to a better one. Last year the Bears ranked 11th in pass blocking and this year the Broncos rank 7th (again, a slight situation where numbers lie because football outsiders rank pass blocking by sacks and Orton also does a fine job alluding sacks). Trust me, I've actually watched football, Orton is in a much better situation and this shows in his numbers. He has increased his passer rating 8.2 points, his YPA by 0.6, is now completing 3.5% more passes, and has increased his TD/INT ratio by 0.7 percent.
Last year Cutler was sacked only 20 times. This year, he's already been sacked 20. Last year Cutler got sacked 1.79 times for every 100 times he's thrown the ball. This year, he's getting sacked a whooping 5.26 times every times per every 100 pass attempt. Compare this to Orton. Last year Orton was sacked 27 times. This year he's only gotten sacked 14. Orton got sacked 5.81 times per every 100 attempts. This year he's getting sacked 4.4 times per every 100 attempts.
I think this Orton/Cutler trade just goes to show you how important a line can be. So with this in mind, let's look to see how sacks per every 100 attempt has affected each players numbers.
Cassel (+2.66 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09
Cutler (+1.79 sacks per game)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56
Orton (-1.41 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7
Statistically speaking, these numbers are pretty close to each other. The sacks per 100 attempts are vastly different, yet the numbers below seem pretty darn close. The most discernible effect S/100 (sacks per 100 pass attempts) seems to have is on YPA. The more a QB has gotten sacked, the more his YPA is hurt.
Obviously, analyzing three players over 1.5 seasons is absolutely not enough to determine 100% conclusive data. But it certainly just reinforces the point that offensive lines are so important to a team.
So to answer my original question, how are the Chiefs liking this Matt Cassel trade now? Maybe if they put a good team around him Cassel would succeed. And to the point that McDaniels was actively trying to trade for Cassel? He should have kept his big mouth shut because his O-line is good enough for any QB whether it be Cassel or Cutler or Orton. However, as a Bears fan, I'm happy as hell McDaniels is dumb.
Last year, Cassel Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to as well as a great O-line. So you knew his numbers were skewed a bit. Even still, Cassel was never that efficient ranking 17th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. Those who liked him because of his fantasy football production also were misled the same way we were misled my liking Tyler Thigpen- Cassel was able to run the ball pretty well (again, helped by the Pats O-line). Cassel was 10th in passer rating, 10th in YPG, and 15th in YPA with a 1.91 TD/INT ratio. So how's Cassel doing this year?
To start off with, the Chiefs have an awful O-line ranking 27th in pass blocking (and as any Bears fan can tell you now, it's hard as hell for a QB to throw the ball with an awful line) and Dwayne Bowe and um, uh, whoever the Chiefs #2 receiver was before Chambers arrived are much much much worse than Moss and Welker. However, Cassel still took a 11.5 hit in passer rating, 1.2 YPA hit, and is completing 8.4% less passes. Yet despite this, his TD/INT ratio has gone up .09 points.
Normally, I would think that maybe I would start talking about how shitty Cassel is, but I think looking at Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler from this year to last year is a great example of just how important a line and receiving corps can be.
Jay Cutler went for playing for a team that ranked 4th in pass blocking to a team that now ranks 15th (and I think this is an example where stats can lie b/c I feel Cutler being able to scramble and throws the ball before he gets sacked screws this number because no way in hell the Bears are only middle of the pack in pass blocking). Anyway, Cutler is going from a great line to a shitty one. He's going from a 1.39 TD/INT ratio to a .833 ratio. He took a .56 hit in TD/INT ratio, 11.5 hit in passer rating, a .70 hit in YPA (and to put this into perspective, he has a 7.3, 7.5, and 7.3 YPA in Denver. He's down to 6.6 this year), but only a slight hit in completion percentage. .
Compare this now to Kyle Orton who went from a shitty situation to a better one. Last year the Bears ranked 11th in pass blocking and this year the Broncos rank 7th (again, a slight situation where numbers lie because football outsiders rank pass blocking by sacks and Orton also does a fine job alluding sacks). Trust me, I've actually watched football, Orton is in a much better situation and this shows in his numbers. He has increased his passer rating 8.2 points, his YPA by 0.6, is now completing 3.5% more passes, and has increased his TD/INT ratio by 0.7 percent.
Last year Cutler was sacked only 20 times. This year, he's already been sacked 20. Last year Cutler got sacked 1.79 times for every 100 times he's thrown the ball. This year, he's getting sacked a whooping 5.26 times every times per every 100 pass attempt. Compare this to Orton. Last year Orton was sacked 27 times. This year he's only gotten sacked 14. Orton got sacked 5.81 times per every 100 attempts. This year he's getting sacked 4.4 times per every 100 attempts.
I think this Orton/Cutler trade just goes to show you how important a line can be. So with this in mind, let's look to see how sacks per every 100 attempt has affected each players numbers.
Cassel (+2.66 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09
Cutler (+1.79 sacks per game)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56
Orton (-1.41 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7
Statistically speaking, these numbers are pretty close to each other. The sacks per 100 attempts are vastly different, yet the numbers below seem pretty darn close. The most discernible effect S/100 (sacks per 100 pass attempts) seems to have is on YPA. The more a QB has gotten sacked, the more his YPA is hurt.
Obviously, analyzing three players over 1.5 seasons is absolutely not enough to determine 100% conclusive data. But it certainly just reinforces the point that offensive lines are so important to a team.
So to answer my original question, how are the Chiefs liking this Matt Cassel trade now? Maybe if they put a good team around him Cassel would succeed. And to the point that McDaniels was actively trying to trade for Cassel? He should have kept his big mouth shut because his O-line is good enough for any QB whether it be Cassel or Cutler or Orton. However, as a Bears fan, I'm happy as hell McDaniels is dumb.
The Matt Cassel Trade
Yesterday, the Chiefs new GM, former Patriots VP, traded away their 2009 2nd round, 34th overall draft pick. What did they get in return, QB Matt Cassell and LB Mike Vrabel.
The Chiefs side: A great benefit of going 2-14 is that you get an amazing draft position. The Chiefs 2nd pick is extremely valuable because that draftee is going to be a high quality player and there's no reason to think this said player can't compete at a high level for many years to come. The Chiefs are a young team and this draft pick would fit right in with the team. Instead, now the Chiefs get a young QB whom I'm not convinced will play at a high level consistently like he did late year and a 12 year LB on the decline.
Matt Cassel: This kid was great last year. He really was on of the top ten QBs of 2008. But the thing was, he played for the New England Patriots. He had Randy Moss and Wes Welker has receivers and had just a fantastic offensive line. Plenty of time and great receivers make any QB look better than they actually are. Now Cassel moves to Kansas City where his receivers are Mark Bradley (former Bear BTW) and Dwayne Bowe. Don't get me wrong, their fine receivers, but they're nowhere close to the level of Moss and Welker. Cassel will now also see a decrease in the amount of time he has to throw the ball which will decrease his production. And here's the thing, the Chiefs have a fine young QB they can develop in Tyler Thigpen. This kid improved throughout the year and if used correctly, would have had better numbers in 2008. Just watching Thigpen, you can see KC had a QB for the future
Mike Vrabel: Don't get me wrong, I love Vrabel. As a Pats fan, I love what he's done for the organization. I just don't see him helping out the Chiefs all that much. It seems he's much better suited for New England than he is in Kansas City. Plus he's OLD. At least with Cassel there's theoretical upside, with Vrabel I just don't see this 12 year vet doing a whole lot
The Patriots side: I think the Patriots got the better end out of this deal. Yes, they give up a key guy in Mike Vrabel, but as I said before, he's old. And if the Pats are willing to part with him, I just don't see him doing a whole lot now. And the Pats didn't need Cassel at all. Next season they'll have Tom Brady, the best(or second best depending on who you talk to) QB in the NFL right now. If he's healthy, he'll be a stud and no reason to have Cassel on the roster. Now I think it was really stupid to franchise Cassel because it ate up cap room, but I guess the Pats were planning on trading him. And they did. Now if Brady does get injured again, then the Pats now lose that valuable back up. But the Patriots system is so good, I'm sure which ever QB the Pats sign as their back up (how funny would that be if that guy was Rex Grossman!), that player will be just as effective as Cassell was- at cheaper too.
Plus the Patriots get a great draft pick in return. As I mentioned earlier, that 34th pick overall is very high and the Pats can now get a young stud of their choosing in return.
Winner: New England Patriots. The Pats gave up a QB they didn't need, a LB who probably won't be THAT effective and gained ton of cap room to sign players they did need (like Vince Wilfork) and gained a young player that will be extremely effective because the Pats know how to draft well. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gained a QB who probably won't produce that the organization would want him to, a LB that won't be THAT effective, and lost a ton of cap room and the chance to pick a great young player.
The Chiefs side: A great benefit of going 2-14 is that you get an amazing draft position. The Chiefs 2nd pick is extremely valuable because that draftee is going to be a high quality player and there's no reason to think this said player can't compete at a high level for many years to come. The Chiefs are a young team and this draft pick would fit right in with the team. Instead, now the Chiefs get a young QB whom I'm not convinced will play at a high level consistently like he did late year and a 12 year LB on the decline.
Matt Cassel: This kid was great last year. He really was on of the top ten QBs of 2008. But the thing was, he played for the New England Patriots. He had Randy Moss and Wes Welker has receivers and had just a fantastic offensive line. Plenty of time and great receivers make any QB look better than they actually are. Now Cassel moves to Kansas City where his receivers are Mark Bradley (former Bear BTW) and Dwayne Bowe. Don't get me wrong, their fine receivers, but they're nowhere close to the level of Moss and Welker. Cassel will now also see a decrease in the amount of time he has to throw the ball which will decrease his production. And here's the thing, the Chiefs have a fine young QB they can develop in Tyler Thigpen. This kid improved throughout the year and if used correctly, would have had better numbers in 2008. Just watching Thigpen, you can see KC had a QB for the future
Mike Vrabel: Don't get me wrong, I love Vrabel. As a Pats fan, I love what he's done for the organization. I just don't see him helping out the Chiefs all that much. It seems he's much better suited for New England than he is in Kansas City. Plus he's OLD. At least with Cassel there's theoretical upside, with Vrabel I just don't see this 12 year vet doing a whole lot
The Patriots side: I think the Patriots got the better end out of this deal. Yes, they give up a key guy in Mike Vrabel, but as I said before, he's old. And if the Pats are willing to part with him, I just don't see him doing a whole lot now. And the Pats didn't need Cassel at all. Next season they'll have Tom Brady, the best(or second best depending on who you talk to) QB in the NFL right now. If he's healthy, he'll be a stud and no reason to have Cassel on the roster. Now I think it was really stupid to franchise Cassel because it ate up cap room, but I guess the Pats were planning on trading him. And they did. Now if Brady does get injured again, then the Pats now lose that valuable back up. But the Patriots system is so good, I'm sure which ever QB the Pats sign as their back up (how funny would that be if that guy was Rex Grossman!), that player will be just as effective as Cassell was- at cheaper too.
Plus the Patriots get a great draft pick in return. As I mentioned earlier, that 34th pick overall is very high and the Pats can now get a young stud of their choosing in return.
Winner: New England Patriots. The Pats gave up a QB they didn't need, a LB who probably won't be THAT effective and gained ton of cap room to sign players they did need (like Vince Wilfork) and gained a young player that will be extremely effective because the Pats know how to draft well. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gained a QB who probably won't produce that the organization would want him to, a LB that won't be THAT effective, and lost a ton of cap room and the chance to pick a great young player.
