Really Sportsnation? Really?

I know that Roethlisberger is probably a rapist and all, but you cannot be serious about having Eli Manning leading your team over Big Ben or like 15 other QB's in the NFL. Does Eli really put fear into you? Yeah, he won a super bowl, but he also had an offensive line that could have gotten Sexy Rexy into the Pro Bowl. In fact, in 6 seasons, Manning has never won a playoff game outside his super bowl year.

The Big Ben Gets Off

Woooo! double entendres! Is it just me or is it ironic that Ben Roethlisbegrer, with his long hair slicked back, look like a rapist or molester when he's apologising for raping, er having consensual sex with, a girl in a Georgia bathroom?

Analyzing the Santonio Holmes Trade

Through my first analysis, I have told you that trading for Braylon Edwards was a waste. And all Jets fans who saw Edwards drop easy passes that fell in his lap get dropped came around to what I told them. But cheer up baby birds, I'm about to chew up some analysis and spit some knowledge in your mouth (too graphic?), you got Edwards part II.

Last year, Holmes collected 1248 yards on 79 receptions (138 targets) good for a 15.8 YPR (yards per reception). Holmes was 10th in DYAR (roughly measures total value) and 21st DVOA (roughly measures value per play). However, it's his 57% catch rate that worries me. Out of the top 15 players last year (according to FO DYAR), there are three receiver with a catch rate under 61% (besides Holmes, A. Johnson and C. Ochocinco) and Holmes (along with Ochocinco) rank last out of the top 15 players in catch rate. 32 of the top 45 players had a better catch rate than Holmes. In fact, Holmes has a career 55% catch rate.

Despite Holmes low catch rate however, he does do pretty darn good things when he gets the ball. He was tied for second in the league last year for plays 20+, had no fumbles, 5th in first downs and still was at minimum a top 15 wide out (despite his slight inefficiencies). And at only 27 years old and only four years in the league, he is very very good.

And he is absolutely no doubt better than Jerricho Cotchery and David Clowney.

Because Santonio Holomes is better than probably any current Jets receiver, he will make young Mark Sanchez better. So let's take a look at Big Ben and the Sanchize's numbers to see how Holmes will actually produce in the Meadowlands

Over the past three years, 24.4% of Big Ben's passes went towards Holmes and he has caught 12.7% of Big Ben's total passes while Holmes was in Pittsburgh. While those numbers seem low, that's not THAT bad considering how many passes any QB throws that don't get caught and how many players any QB has to distribute the ball to.


However, these low stats do become important because as little attempts as Big Ben has, the Sanchize will have even less. Big Ben has averaged 462 attempts over the past two years and Sanchez had 364 attempts in 15 games. Now while Sanchez will most likely get more attempts and get better- the number of passes he'll throw to Holmes will decrease thus decreasing the overall value of Holmes- at least for the 2010 season.

Last year, about 15.9% of Sanchez' passes went to his RBs, 21.4% went to Braylon Edwards, 26.6% went to Jerricho Cotchery, 22.3% went to Dustin Keller, and about 13.8% went to other receivers.

So based off of Sanchez' past numbers, percentages, improvement, and Holmes' catch rate, let's see what we can predict Holmes, at least for 2010.

If we generously say Sanchez gets more attempts and gets better accuracy (which he showed at the end of the 2009 season), let's generously say Sanchez gets 400 attempts (up from his 364 in 15 games in 2009). Let's say Edwards gets about 22% of Sanchez' passes and say Holmes (based upon Holmes' talent and what he did in Pittsburgh) gets 25% of Sanchez' throws. Thats means Holmes should get about 100 passes thrown his way.

So if we include Holmes' career catch rate, that means Holmes should get only about 55 catches- way below his 2009 mark, but right along his '06-'08 rate. Add his career 16.3 YPR rate, that means Holmes should get only around 900 yards- with maybe about 5 TDs (falls along with his career average and a crappier QB). But when you include the four game suspension- I'll say he gets about 675 yards with 4 TDs.


Now Holmes is still young and took a huge step forward so I can easily foresee my prediction that Holmes will regress will not come true. But I think a lot of Holmes' value came from Big Ben's career year and with a young and improving QB at the helm throwing to two drop heavy receivers does not bode well for the team. But hey, it was only a 5th round draft pick and the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets have still improved.

For an analysis on the Brandon Marshall trade, click here

Who Is The Best AFC QB?

Based upon the best statistic ever (hmm, sarcasism don't translate well on a blog) sacks per 100 passing attempts, I've decided to do a brief analysis of the great AFC QBs preemptively for my new poll.

S/100
Big Ben: 8.72
Philip Rivers: 6.23
Matt Schaub: 5.21
Tom Brady: 3.56
Peyton Manning: 2.06

YPA
Big Ben: 8.33
Peyton Manning: 8.17
Philip Rivers: 8.17
Matt Schaub: 8.10
Tom Brady: 7.76

Completion Percentage
Peyton Manning: 69.8
Big Ben: 68.9
Matt Schaub: 67.1
Tom Brady: 66.4
Philip Rivers: 63.2

Passer Rating:
Peyton Manning: 102.7
Tom Brady: 100.4
Matt Schaub: 98.9
Philip Rivers: 98.7
Big Ben: 98.6

TD/INT ratio:
Tom Brady: 3.33
Petyton Manning: 2.33
Philip Rivers: 2.83
Matt Schaub: 2.11
Big Ben: 1.70

So who is the best AFC QB? I don't think this one is clear. Peyton clearly takes advantage of his superior O-line but does the increase in sacks make guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger better than Manning? I don't know. But please, when you vote, take sacks and O-line into account.

Why I Don't Like Ben Roethlisberger

Besides the fact that his name is near impossible to spell by memory, I think Ben's case is an example where his numbers lie a little.

Let me start off by saying I think he's an above average quarterback that's very mobile, smart, and crazy accurate.

But there's one giant flaw that if he was a free agent, I don't think my beloved Bears should spend a lot of money signing him (although looking into him wouldn't be a bad idea). He's a system quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is as good as is he because he was lucky enough to get drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. He possesses skills to be a great quarterback but he's on a team that highlights his strengths and diminshes his weaknesses.

The big problem with Big Ben is that he isn't asked to throw a whole lot per game. The Steelers during Ben's reign (for the most part) have had a great running game so Ben is only asked to throw about 20-30 times per games. Plus the Steelers defense has been one of the best in the NFL during this time with the Steelers. So the great running game, the stingy D, and Ben's accuracy have made the Steelers a great and winning franchise, but they win with Roethlisberger not because of him. Let's look at his stats during his five year stint.

2004: Steelers running game: 4.0 YPC- 2nd in NFL
Roethlisberger's stats:
295 attempts- 28th in NFL
98.1 passer rating- 5th in NFL
66.4% completion %- t-4th in NFL

2005: Steelers running game: 4.0 YPC- 5th in NFL
Roethlisberger's stats:
268 attempts- 30th in NFL
98.6 passer rating- 3rd in NFL
62.7% completion %- 9th in NFL

2006: Steelers running game: 4.2 YPC- 10th in NFL
Roethlisberger's stats:
469 attempts- 11th in NFL
75.4 passer rating- 21st in NFL
59.7% completion %- 19th in NFL

2007: Steelers running game: 4.2 YPC- 3rd in NFL
Roesthlisberger's stats:
404 attempts- 16th in NFL
104.1 passer rating- 2nd in NFL
65.3% completion %- 7th in NFL

2008: Steelers running game: 3.7 YPC- 23rd in NFL
Roesthlisberger's stats:
469 attempts- 14th in NFL
80.1 passer rating- 24th in NFL
59.9% completion %- 21st in NFL

Last year, the 2008/2009 season, Roethlisberger had his 2nd worst statistical year ever. He had the 2nd lowest completion percentage and 2nd lowest passer rating of his career. It's no surprise that the Steelers running game was by far the worst Big Ben has had in his 5 years and he tied his career high in passing attempts. 2006 was the other year in which he threw so much and this was the year in which he had his career low in passer rating and completion percentage. This WAS Big Ben's worst statistical year. I don't think it's a coincidence that Ben Roethlisberger's two worst years was the years in which he had to throw the most.

Ben's two best years was the 2005/2006 season and the 2007/2008 season. In 2005, Ben was 30th in passer attempts. There are 32 teams in the NFL. This year the Steelers running game was the 5th best in the NFL. In this year, Ben had the 2nd best completion percentage and passer rating in his career. In 2007, Ben experienced the best running game of his career. He only threw 404 times; that's an average of a little less than 27 times a game. ONLY 27! This was the only year in which Ben had a passer rating over 100 and had the 2nd best completion percentage on his career (his best was his rookie year when he only threw it 295 times).

If Big Ben was on the vast majority of other teams and other systems, I believe his numbers would see a significant decline. Ben Roethlisberger has yet to show me he's an elite QB on his own. I will change my mind if he shows me he can have a high number of attempts AND a high completion percentage. The 2008/2009 season was his chance to show he can take an offense on his back and he failed miserably.

This is why I don't like Ben Roethlisberger.

Maxim Magazine and Sports- An Oxymoron

So at the beginning of the year I bought a Maxim magazine for a school project (I swear it's for this advertising class I'm in. I have a computer, I'd use that instead of waste my money if I wanted to look at hot girls) Anyway, they have this whole section dedicated to the NFL. They have their own NFL Prediction and they created an "All-Maxim Team" where they mentioned certain players and have little interviews with them (they also have interviews with some hot cheerleaders too 'Oh, I'm going to college right now to be a marine biologist" Sure you are sweetie, you're taking classes after football games and before you strip at nightclubs... Anyway, I'm digressing here.)

My point is this (actually I have two). What does it take to really be considered in the "All Maxim Team"? I guess they try and get the best player available at each position? But if that was the case, then why are players like Chris Cooley (TE), Ben Roethlisberger (QB), Haloti Ngata (D) (Wait, his position is "D", what they fuck is that short for? He just plays defense? What!?), Al Harris (CB), Leonard Davis (OG), and Matt Birk (C) considered for this list. I mean they're GOOD, but are they the very best at their position, probably not.
Here are some of the qualifications I think it takes to be on the "All Maxim Team"
1) You have to be available to actually sit down, take a picture, and kind of sort of talk with a Maxim "reporter" (and I use the term reporter loosely)
2) You have to like to look at hot women. Not necessary fuck them, just look at them. With something, just a little bit, covering, all their private parts
3) YOU HAVE TO BE A MAN!
4) You have to look good in a bathing suit randomly running down a sandy beech with a hot girl sunbathing in the distance...
5) You have to have a story that is kind of funny to you and your teammates but when you tell it to a Maxim "reporter" you just sound like a retard

Secondly, what does it take to be an football expert writing for Maxim? Here's the bracket of how they predicted the 2008/2009 season playoffs to shake out

AFC:
1) New England Patriots
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) San Diego Chargers
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Jacksonville Jaguars
6) Cleveland Browns

(BTW, this is what the 2007/2008 AFC picture looked expect replace Cleveland with Tennessee Titans)

Round One: Pittsburgh beats Jacksonville and San Diego beats Cleveland.
Round Two: New England beats Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beats San Diego
Round Three: New England beats Indianapolis

(apparently Maxim is full of pussies and predict no upsets. Maxim, pussies, get it? It's irony)

NFC:
1) Dallas Cowboys
2) New Orleans Saints
3) Green Bay Packers
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) Philadelphia Eagles
6) Arizona Cardinals

Round One: Arizona beats Green Bay and Philadelphia beats Seattle
Round Two: New Orleans beats Philadelphia and Dallas beats Arizona
Round Three: Dallas beats New Orleans

(Ooooh, and upset in the first round! Two of them! Going bold Maxim, Go-ing bold!)

Superbowl: New England beats Dallas

(apparentely only two upsets will occus throughout the ENTIRE playoffs and both will happen in the first round of the NFC playoffs)

So here's what the playoffs are GOING to look like (pretty much)

AFC:
1) Tennessee Titans
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
3) New York Jets/ New England Patriots/Miami Dolphins
4) Denver Broncos
5) Indianapolis Colts
6) Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
1) New York Giants
2) Carolina Panthers
3) Minnesota Vikings
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6) Atlanta Falcons/ Dallas Cowboys

(the order may not be exactly like this because the Carolina Panthers could miracously run the table and get the #1 NFC spot but don't be be too shocked to see the real playoff order turn out like this)

Good job Maxim. Way to really be on the ball on this one. Way to really tell the vast majority of your readers what they didn't already think would happen and gave great insight to predicting the future! Fucktards.