Just like the Baha Men following up their first single "Who Let The Dogs Out" with "You All Dat"- essentially the same exact song- I will be following up my Santonio Holmes success with Brandon Marshall.
Last year Marshall was 14th in receiving yards (1120), 4th in receptions (101), 5th in targets (152) with an average 11.1 YPR (yards per reception), and 10 TDs- all while only starting 13 games. Marshall is more of a possessions receiver with decent big play ability so his catch rate (61% in the last three years) is going to be higher than someone like a Randy Moss- but Marshall's ability makes him at the lower level of the elite wide outs.
Marshall has also shown to be consistent and productive despite the quarterback throwing to him. Marshall catches 102 passes like clockwork (102, 104, 102 respectively for the past three years) all with a different QB. (Yes, technically he had Jay Cutler throwing to him in '07 and '08, but let's be real with ourselves, the Cutler in 2007 was a different and crappier QB than the Cutler in 2008). While his targets have increased (per game) depending on the QB throwing to him (180 targets during Cutler's best season versus 155 last year), there was not a drastic shift in the amount of balls coming towards Marshall. (Yes, I realize what I wrote, feel free to pause for a little chuckle)
My guess is that the consistency in the targets Marshall gets from year to year is more due to Marshall's skill than it is the QB. I'll be making this assumption throughout my analysis because I know that Chad Henne is probably not even close to Kyle Orton's level yet, but Henne has shown he is a capable QB in the NFL (a 60.8% NFL completion percentage, having a percentage better than 63% in his past four starts, while having 320+ yards in three out of his past five starts), so that if Marshall does get open, Henne can complete passes to him. Plus, the fact that Marshall is somewhat of a possessions receiver leads me to believe that Marshall's Denver numbers will translate to Miami.
Plus, receiver's stats are obviously tied into attempts. The less the QB throws, the less balls thrown a receiver's way and the less catches a receiver has. But Henne still threw for 451 attempts in only 14 games in '09. So even though Henne was only 20th in passes attempted, if you extrapolate his attempts to an extra two games- he would have thrown for about 515 attempts- making him 10th in the NFL (right above Drew Brees). So even though the Dolphins appear to be a running team and like to run the wildcat- Henne and the Dolphins will still throw a lot- which bodes well for Marshall
Last year, 22.8% of Henne's passes went to Devone Bess, 12.6% went to Ted Ginn Jr., 14.6% went to Greg Camarillo, 10.6% went to Ricky Williams, 10.8% went to Anthony Fasano, 3.1% went to Ronnie Brown, and 25.5% went to other receivers. About 50% of Henne's passes went to his top three receivers, one quarter went to other receivers, 15% went to his RBs, and 10% went to his TE.
Henne liked to toss the ball around, but Henne never had a legit #1 receiver to throw to so he had to pass the ball around. So let's take a look at a QB who did have a Marshall as a number one target.
Last year, about 28.5% of Kyle Orton's passes went to Marshall. In 2008, 29.7% of Cutler's passes went to Marshall and in '07, 36.4% of Cutler's passes went to Marshall. This is a wide range of passes that went Marshall's way and the way Henne improved the past year, predicting Marshall for the next year is going to be a tad imprecise. But here we go.
First of all, let's try and predict Henne's attempts for next year. As mentioned earlier, if Henne had played in all 16 games, he would have thrown 515 yards. Even as good as this is, Henne will probably get better. Not only will Henne improve with age, but getting a stud receiver helps all. So let's say that Henne gets about 540 attempts- along the lines if Orton and Aaron Rodgers. And the extra 25 attempts would only equate to an extra pass and a half per game- not unreasonable.
Now let's say about 30% of Henne's passes go to Marshall- which falls along with what quarterbacks have done in the past. That means that Marshall should get about 162 targets. Add that to Marshall's recent 61% catch rate and that means Marshall should get about 99 receptions (although him getting 102 is not out of the question). 99 receptions with Marshall's 12.07 YPR over the past three years and that equates to 1195 yards. Now the biggest question (especially for fantasy owners) is how many TDs will Marshall get? Well, over the past three years, he's gotten 6, 7, and 10 TDs respectively. But you know what, you can never predict TDs. Last year in less games and with a "crappier" QB, Marshall had more touchdowns than he did in 2008 and 2007. On the flip side, Henne only threw 12 TDs last year. So in this spectrum, I'll say Marshall gets 7 TDs next year. So what do I think will Marshall's line will look like next year:
162 targets, 99 receptions, 1195 yards, 7 TDs.
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