Five Quick Reasons To Be Worried About Jake Peavy

It's 2:20 AM, so I'll make this a quickie post. I forecasted Jake Peavy's 2010 a few weeks ago, and he's done nothing to prove me wrong yet. At this point in the season (despite the very limited sample size), here are five legitimate reasons to be worried about Jake Peavy.

1. Decreasing groundball rate
Through his first four starts, Jake Peavy's current GB% sits at an ugly 33.3%. Only 8 other starting pitchers have induced less worm burners as a percentage of all contact made against them this season. Peavy's career GB% is an already low 41.6% and it's never been 45% or higher; considering where he plays nowadays, Peavy's can't afford to keep the ball in the air (especially not with Carlos Quentin playing defense).
2. Increasing walk rate
Peavy's 2010 BB/9 of 6.04 is double what it was from 2008-2009. The league average is traditionally around 3.40. From 2005-2007, Peavy's walk rate per nine registered at 2.22, 2.76 and 2.74. I expect Peavy's walk rate to fall considerably as the season progresses, but flyball pitchers who pitch in the Cell need to limit the number of guys on base to keep their ERA's low. An even then, as Javier Vazquez can attest, that is not enough.
3. Decreased strikeout rate
A move from the NL to AL was obviously going to result in a slightly decreased K/9, but Peavy's strikeout rate so far this season is down 33%. Two of his four starts have come against the Rays and Jays, who are the two most strikeout-prone teams in baseball at the moment. Not every team has Travis Snyder in their lineup.
4. The White Sox still play awful defense
Despite having the best defensive Designated Hitter in baseball, the White Sox are still awful at fielding. As of 04/26/10, the Pale Hose are fifth to last in terms of team UZR/150, with a -12.1 mark (click here to see current UZR/150 ratings by team). So far this season, the White Sox defense has been "worth" 7.8 runs below average, second to only the Dodgers, who have cost their team 9.6 runs in poor glove work.
5. Moving from Petco Park to US Cellular Field (and from the NL to AL)
According to ESPN's Park Factor Data for 2009, The Cell was fourth in home runs in 2009 with a 19% inflation factor, where as Petco was second to last with a 33% deflation rate. In terms of offense, Petco suppressed run creation by 35.9% last season, whereas The Cell inflated them by 6.2%. To top this off, moves from the NL to AL generally result in a half-run ERA increase.

Admittedly, 22.1 IP is an incredibly small sample size, but when you compound all of these factors together, you have a recipe for disaster. Sure, Peavy might right the ship starting today and prove me completely wrong, but I was down on Peavy entering the 2010 season and nothing he's done yet has quelled my concerns. I projected a 4.22 ERA. ZiPS seems to agree (4.22 Rest Of Season ERA prediction as of 04/26/10).

Sell now, while you still can?